Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271736 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 136 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FAIRLY SOLID STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN TODAY TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTH TODAY AND JUST BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW FAST/IF WE ARE ABLE TO SCATTERED OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH THIS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTHWARD AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE THUNDER MENTION AT A SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THREATS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN ANY RAINFALL WITH AN EASTERLY DRYING WIND ON SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REPEATED PATTERN WILL SEE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WITH AN EASTERLY ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP STARTING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND CULMINATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER OHIO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ANOTHER S/W MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD TURN OFF ANY RAIN MONDAY. GFS...EUROPEAN...AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL DIFFER BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND SHOULD BE THE WAY THE PATTERN EVOLVES GIVEN H5 ZONAL FLOW. EUROPEAN HOLDS BACK THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND HPC GOES EVEN FURTHER WITH KEEPING THE CIRCULATION IN OHIO THROUGH TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND KEPT A COOLER FORECAST UNTIL MON/TUES AS THE CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH A HIGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO THIN OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ARE NOW BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WILL THEREFORE JUST ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH KCVG/KLUK IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO IFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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