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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 090055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL BRING A LIGHT MIXTURE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE TONIGHT IS ON THE CONTINUED
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. REPORTS ARE BEING RECEIVED FROM
SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOCATIONS IN THE ILN CWA OF HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THESE REPORTS HAVE BEEN
IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON
RADAR (EVEN IN VCP31)...AS IT IS BOTH LIGHT AND LOW TO THE GROUND.
OVERALL...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON TO FAVOR ONE PART
OF THE CWA OVER ANOTHER IN TERMS OF COVERAGE...SO FZDZ WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF POSSIBILITY FOR LEGITIMATE RAIN
SHOWERS (EITHER FREEZING OR LIQUID DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS).

THE FZDZ THREAT WILL GET SQUEEZED INTO THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR
BY 06Z...AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WARM SOLIDLY
ABOVE FREEZING...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES END BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE
CONTINUED THROUGH THE PERIOD (THOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY). NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO SKY GRIDS...WHICH ARE PRETTY SOLIDLY 100-PERCENT THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ADVISORY HEADLINES...WHICH WILL STAY
UP UNTIL 4 AM (WHICH SHOULD COVER THE THREAT TIMING OUTSIDE OF
MAYBE THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

NAM INDICATES A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL FORM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH NRN STREAM DOMINATING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST WITH WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST FAVORABLE MSTR/LIFT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WED.

COLD TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS LOWER/MIDDLE 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE.

COLD AIR REINFORCED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE WEST WHERE SNOW COVER
EXISTS TO NEAR 15 SE. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

A SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF SFC HIGH BUILDING SE OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF WEAK PERTURBATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE BEST POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE EXIST. IN WAA PATTERN WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH RAIN ACRS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND CHANGE TO
RAIN FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS STILL
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

MODELS SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE AND THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST
COAST NEXT SUNDAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO RE-DEVELOPING LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ECMWF SOLN KEEPING
PRECIP ALL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LOW CEILINGS IN THE LIFR CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES HOVERING IN THE IFR TO MVFR
CATEGORIES. PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INTERMITTENT...IT
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO WARRANT KEEPING IN THE
PREVAILING GROUP OF THE TAFS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS...IT ONLY APPEARS THAT THE
COLUMBUS TAF SITES WILL BRIEFLY GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
END. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH IFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS