Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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885 FXUS61 KILN 270426 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1226 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow-moving and weak frontal system will cause scattered showers and storms into the weekend. Warm and humid conditions will continue through Sunday. A slightly stronger cold front will bring more numerous storms on Monday before temperatures return to near-normal values starting on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Mid-level ridging will continue to be in place across the middle Ohio Valley today. With diurnal instability, there will still be scattered convection developing from midday into the afternoon hours... especially southeast of I-71. With high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints well into the 70s, the heat index will once again reach around 100 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Guidance hints at a pre-frontal line of convection perhaps reaching our west-central Ohio counties this evening. While the best diurnal instability will be waning by then, we can`t rule out a strong storm or two in this area before it weakens as it reaches central Ohio. The cold front dips into our northern counties late tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Thus, showers and a few storms will be possible overnight; mostly along and northwest of I-71. Low temperatures will be around 70 to the lower 70s. For Saturday, the front will likely stall across central Ohio. This will lead to the most instability being found across our southern and eastern counties. Therefore, have focused thunderstorm development southeast of I-71. With west-northwesterly surface flow developing and some weak cool air advection, highs will be limited to the middle to upper 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Heat index values in the long term are expected to stay under heat advisory criteria and therefore no headlines or heat mention in the HWO. While not expected to hit heat advisory criteria, temperatures on Sunday will be warm with highs int he upper 80s to lower 90s. The continued pattern of an increased chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours will be present for Sunday, after a mostly dry Saturday night. Moisture transport vectors indicate that some slow moving storms will be possible and therefore cannot rule out an isolated flooding potential for Sunday. Monday will have the highest chance of precipitation chances as a disturbance moves through the region. There will likely be at least some severe threat as this system moves through. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. Will mention severe potential in the HWO. The cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday bringing additional precipitation chances to the area. Dry conditions will move in by Tuesday evening. Areawide temperatures in the 60s are expected Tuesday night. Cooler weather is expected with the CAA for Wednesday with high temperatures generally in the low to middle 80s. CAA cu are also likely for Wednesday. There is a weak disturbance that will bring some light precipitation potential to northern portions of the region on Thursday. The NBM has another system starting to move into the region on Friday, however several models show the precipitation holding off until Friday night. The NBM limits precipitation chances to the chance category and therefore made no changes at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thunderstorm activity has finally cleared area TAF sites this evening, with any lingering light rain dissipating within the next hour or two. With all of the thunderstorm generated outflow boundaries, winds are a bit variable across the area but generally less than 10 knots. Eventually, winds will either become light out of the south or completely calm. VFR CIGs are expected into the overnight as debris clouds left over from the thunderstorms gradually clears. Through the early morning (08Z-12Z), there are some expectations for fog development due to the added moisture from the rainfall today. These forecasts are typically made with low confidence so expect some adjustments through the overnight. Southerly flow will become more southwesterly Friday afternoon with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Monday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...McGinnis