Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020142 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 942 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A DECREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY...ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPINGING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...DRIFTING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NWRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHAT COVERAGE THE CONVECTION MAY MANIFEST ITSELF SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. CLOUD COVER WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP INTO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING ABSORBED INTO MID LEVEL FLOW AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE THE GFS WHICH WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN CLEARING THE LOW OUT OF OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. DESPITE THIS CHANGE IN SURFACE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN UP THERE WITH HIGHS FLIRTING WITH 90 IN MANY SPOTS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS COAST NNE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE..THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY NEBULOUS...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE OHIO VALLEY IN A REGIME OF WEAK AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS WARM CONDITIONS...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED. GEFS 850MB/700MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXTREME...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LENDS SUPPORT TO A FORECAST FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AT THE HIGH END OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD. WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE WILLING TO CONVECT...BUT QPF OUTPUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT IN EITHER CASE. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...THOUGH THE EXTENT AND QUICKNESS THAT THIS OCCURS IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS GOING INTO TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOW FAR THIS PROCESS GETS IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO FORECAST...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND AS LIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE HAD RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A DECREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY...ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPINGING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...DRIFTING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHAT COVERAGE THE CONVECTION MAY MANIFEST ITSELF SO HAVE ONLY PLACED A VCSH AT THE KDAY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. BUT GIVEN THE IN AND OUT CLOUD COVER...CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE FOG AT THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN...AND KLCK...SO HAVE ONLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT KLCK AND KLUK. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH (20 TO 30 PERCENT) WITH A DIURNAL DROP OFF AFTER 00Z AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KURZ NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...KURZ LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HICKMAN

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