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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 031501
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH INITIAL FOCUS ON THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEN SWITCHING TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT
AND HEAVY SNOW WED/THU.

ISENTROPIC LIFT LEAD TO AN AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS ILN/S
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS HAS
PIVOTED NORTH AND EAST OF ILN/S FA.

ILN/S 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WARM BULGE ALOFT OF 6 DEG C
AROUND 78O MB BUT RATHER DRY AIR BELOW THIS. WITH LIGHT ECHO
RETURNS...THIS HAS LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.

BETTER LIFT COMING INTO PLAY BY LATE MORNING AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 60-65 KT LLJ. SEEING THIS
BETTER FORCING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS ACRS
INDIANA. CURRENTLY IN LULL BUT HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.

HAVE ALLOWED THE SRN TIER OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. SOME SFC ROAD/WALKWAY TEMPS
WILL LAG. THEREFORE...HAVE AN SPS THRU NOON ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.

HAVE KEPT NRN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THRU 1 PM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM THE
EAST TO THE SOUTH.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER. DUE
TO THIS REASON HELD OFF ON A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA. DID GO AHEAD
AND EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SOUTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE EVEN LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. CHANGED A TIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SINCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. KEPT A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET
MIXING IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT
GET ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES
HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT CHANGE
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD
WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION A MIX OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NW OF DAYTON WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THEY DO RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW
HOWEVER A WINTRY MIX WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS FURTHER NW OF INTERSTATE 71. EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO COVER ALL BUT FRANKLIN INDIANA AND BUTLER COUNTY
OHIO OF THE 4 INCH SNOW CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE
COUNTIES OUT AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WATCH
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE REST OF THE WATCH WITH AROUND 6
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.

SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH SOME
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL
GET ON FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY.
WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S
READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH KDAY ALREADY REPORTING FZDZ. EXPECT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT
THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT
QUICKLY REDEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/ NAM AND RAP
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CIGS FALLING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AM A LITTLE
HESITANT WITH THIS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO AGAIN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES