Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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847 FXUS61 KILN 122058 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 358 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SNOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY. 8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25 SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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