Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 271804
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
204 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will provide the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development today. A wave of low
pressure traveling along the front will bring the likelihood for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend when upper
disturbances are forecast to interact with a persistently moist
and unstable airmass.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The morning fog has lifted leaving mostly clear skies across the
northern counties and some clouds across se IN and srn OH.
Models continue to show some convective development across mainly
nrn KY today, but could see them spill over into srn OH/In Backed
off on the onset of the pcpn chances until early afternoon and
moved the nrn edge of the PoP chances a little to the s. Tried to
keep it dry from DAY to CMH northward.
Left high temperature forecast as is, in the mid to upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper trough will push into the Central CONUS on Thursday
and Friday. Short wave energy rounding the base of the trough will
develop a weak surface low that will ripple along the stalled
boundary located over Kentucky. The low will provide enhanced
lift as it works gradually eastward, and showers and thunderstorms
are likely to form. The best chance for convective activity on
Thursday will be across the southern half of the FA closer to the
boundary. Southeastern locations may see the bulk of the showers
and thunderstorms on Friday when the weak low will be departing to
Heavy rainfall may result due to the slow progression of the
system in a moist airmass containing from 1.5 to 2+ inches
precipitable water. Storms may not be very well organized due to
generally weak wind shear, and model soundings that are showing a
fairly saturated environment that should limit severe thunderstorm
High temperatures are forecast to slip slightly below normal into
the lower 80s in response to cloud cover and and precip.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain
in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across
the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to
the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east
the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the
chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high
temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave
trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as
mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States.
There still remains timing differences on when the high will build
and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection has been slow to develop today, although latest radar
loop is showing storms developing in central KY. Expect all this
convection to stay south of the TAFs this afternoon.
The early morning fog has lifted into diurnal cu. Most cigs are
VFR, but there is patchy MVFR around LUK. Expect this sig to rise
to VFR in the first few hours of the forecast.
Aft 00Z tonight, a surge of moisture begins to work n ahead of of
a H5 s/w. Brought VCTS into CVG/LUK around 06Z. Lingering low
level moisture across the srn tafs could lead to mvfr fog
By 12Z, better tstm coverage is expected, so brought in some
prevailing pcpn and mvfr cigs to CVG/LUK. Models are indicating
the best surge will be along and s of I-71, so only went with VCSH
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Thursday night into Saturday.