Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222303 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 703 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A humid airmass will combine with daytime heating and mid level disturbances to produce a threat for thunderstorms through Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Storms firing on the instability of daytime heating and a sufficiently moist lower level will continue to spark this afternoon and early evening. Highest potential threat is heavy rain with tremendous rainfall rates over 2"/hr and the chance for those storms to train over a particular area. Flash flood watch was considered but held off given the uncertainty of the placement and evolution of the event today and tonight. Heavy rain was introduced to the forecast as a compromise. Heat indicies in the south are in the established advisory/warning area and will likely be modified this afternoon with blowoff cloud cover limiting runaway temperatures, but mid 70s and higher dewpoints increasing the oppressive nature of the airmass. Will let the advisory/warning expire at 8pm. All indications are for a pseudo w-e line of storms to drop south tonight. This may occur a few hours earlier than models are forecasting and could be initiating at the issuance of this AFD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures will not be able to return to the lower 90s and the threat for heat indicies is significantly lowered. However, humid and sticky conditions will most definitely persist. Storms that are around early in the day will probably push east as a surface boundary sets up sw-ne and conditions improve from nw-se as the day progresses. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pattern change will offer break from the heat and humidity. Weak front pushing through may bring widely scattered showers/storms Monday afternoon. Have included small pop for this mainly in the south/southeast portions of forecast area. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with seasonal temps with lower dewpoints. Another cold front will approach late Wednesday night and push through Thursday and Thursday night with scattered showers and storms. Front should continue to the south and east Friday with cooler and less humid air back in for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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00Z TAF cycle will focus on the southern terminals for thunderstorm impacts tonight (CVG/ILN/LUK and possibly DAY). It seems per the latest data that new thunderstorm development tonight will remain south of central Ohio (CMH/LCK), but this a low confidence forecast with weak forcing signals. Back end of mesoscale convective complex is currently south of the CMH/LCK terminals and drifting southeast. New development across southeast Indiana is an area that will likely continue to see further upscale growth through the evening/overnight with the potential for a training area of storms to develop along old outflows and move through the CVG/LUK/ILN terminals (particularly CVG and LUK). DAY lies on the northern end of this potential thus have kept thunder coverage/duration less than at sites further south. Carrying no precipitation on Sunday due to lowered confidence. Plenty of moisture and instability remains but will depend on overnight storms/outflows before timing/area can be discerned. A little concerned for fog and/or low clouds in central Ohio (CMH and LCK) later tonight but thinking cirrus from thunderstorms to the south/west will temper that somewhat. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Padgett AVIATION...Binau

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