Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 204 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will provide the focus for shower and thunderstorm development today. A wave of low pressure traveling along the front will bring the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The chance for thunderstorms will continue through the weekend when upper disturbances are forecast to interact with a persistently moist and unstable airmass. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The morning fog has lifted leaving mostly clear skies across the northern counties and some clouds across se IN and srn OH. Models continue to show some convective development across mainly nrn KY today, but could see them spill over into srn OH/In Backed off on the onset of the pcpn chances until early afternoon and moved the nrn edge of the PoP chances a little to the s. Tried to keep it dry from DAY to CMH northward. Left high temperature forecast as is, in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad upper trough will push into the Central CONUS on Thursday and Friday. Short wave energy rounding the base of the trough will develop a weak surface low that will ripple along the stalled boundary located over Kentucky. The low will provide enhanced lift as it works gradually eastward, and showers and thunderstorms are likely to form. The best chance for convective activity on Thursday will be across the southern half of the FA closer to the boundary. Southeastern locations may see the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms on Friday when the weak low will be departing to the east. Heavy rainfall may result due to the slow progression of the system in a moist airmass containing from 1.5 to 2+ inches precipitable water. Storms may not be very well organized due to generally weak wind shear, and model soundings that are showing a fairly saturated environment that should limit severe thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are forecast to slip slightly below normal into the lower 80s in response to cloud cover and and precip. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday through Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States. There still remains timing differences on when the high will build and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs down. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Convection has been slow to develop today, although latest radar loop is showing storms developing in central KY. Expect all this convection to stay south of the TAFs this afternoon. The early morning fog has lifted into diurnal cu. Most cigs are VFR, but there is patchy MVFR around LUK. Expect this sig to rise to VFR in the first few hours of the forecast. Aft 00Z tonight, a surge of moisture begins to work n ahead of of a H5 s/w. Brought VCTS into CVG/LUK around 06Z. Lingering low level moisture across the srn tafs could lead to mvfr fog development. By 12Z, better tstm coverage is expected, so brought in some prevailing pcpn and mvfr cigs to CVG/LUK. Models are indicating the best surge will be along and s of I-71, so only went with VCSH at DAY. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Thursday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Sites

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