Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291718 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 118 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING FOG QUICKLY MIXING OUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE STILL PATCHY IN SOME AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL BUT ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP JUST A TAD NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTON WITH FEELING THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SIMILAR IN ALL AREAS AND DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHERE BEST CONVECTION WILL BE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDICES CERTAINLY APPROACHING 100 AND TOUCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. SPS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THIS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR HEADLINES BEING THAT MINIMUM CRITERIA TIME AND ALREADY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF HEAT POTENTIAL. LEFT HIGH TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW WITH THOUGHTS OF A TWEEK UP A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST ROBUST FROPA AND NEXT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ATTM GIVEN A WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. HIGHS AFTER TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL AND MORE COMFORTABLE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR SHORTWAVES. ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST. AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS). WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO THE AVAILABLE FORCING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT MAIN FOCUS FROM 19Z TO 23Z. SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THAT. SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY NEAR OHIO RIVER. DON`T BELIEVE IT WILL BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. LIGHT WINDS THRU PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...PADGETT LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...PADGETT

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