Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230523 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 123 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE FIZZLED OUT THIS EVENING AS THE SUN HAS GONE DOWN. THE COLD FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH ILN AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CINCINNATI IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT IS QUICKLY PULLING EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO WASH OUT TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO OUR EAST WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CIRRUS HAS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY THICK IN SPOTS THIS EVENING WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING BREAKS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT LOW LIGHT NOT SO SURE ABOUT THERE BEING MANY BREAKS THOUGH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A BIT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. STILL AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE BUILDING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. DEW POINTS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS BUT UNDERCUT IT SLIGHTLY FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. DUE TO THIS HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SITES ESPECIALLY 08Z-18Z. WINDS LIKELY TO BE LGT/VARIABLE BUT IF THEY DO INCREASE LOCALLY IT WILL LIKELY BE OF A EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WITH CENTER OF HIGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT KLUK IN THE PRE-SUNRISE HOURS THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...BINAU

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