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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 291744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH A LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...A WEAK SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY
LATE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD WANE AND THE SFC TROF WEAKER...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND
SOME POCKETS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBYS TO
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN AND KLCK.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD PEAK HEATING. IT WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS FIELD...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
BEST COVERAGE APPEARS SLATED FOR THE NRN TAF SITES OF KDAY..KCMH...AND
KLCK. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HICKMAN