


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --787 FXUS61 KILN 290149 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 949 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --More afternoon and evening showers and storms on tap for Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will early this upcoming week. A slightly stronger cold front will bring more numerous storms on Monday, before temperatures return to near or just slightly above normal by midweek. Drier conditions are expected by Tuesday through midweek as well.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --Remnants of earlier convection continues to wane and should be over before midnight. Clouds will diminish as well, especially across the northern part of the area. A weak boundary remains draped across the northern Miami Valley to north of Delaware. Expect some fog to develop overnight and while that could occur just about anywhere in the area, it appears more favorable near and just south of that boundary.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The rinse-and-repeat pattern continues on Sunday amidst very weak LL/deep-layer flow. The main focus that will ultimately drive the development of more scattered diurnally-enhanced activity is going to be the approach of a weak/subtle MCV by late in the day into srn IN. This will provide a localized enhancement to the LL flow/convergence along an arc stretching from SW IN through southern OH, providing just enough lift to initiate more afternoon/evening convection, initially in/near the Tri-State. The thermo environment will remain very supportive of downburst gusty to isolated damaging winds, with DCAPE values expected to be >=1000 J/kg. Additionally, the steering-layer flow should be even weaker on Sunday, lending itself to very slow and chaotic storm motions/evolutions, suggesting the heavy rain/isolated flooding threat will be more pronounced Sunday than will be the case today, particularly in SW parts of the area during the afternoon. This is mainly due to the slow and erratic storms, which may sit/back build over a single location, lengthening the potential time of torrential downpours. Will add mention in the HWO to account for this potential. Warm and muggy conditions continue Sunday night with an ISO SHRA/TSRA continuing through the night, particularly near/W of I-75. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will approach the Ohio Valley from the northwest on Monday. Ahead of the front, southwesterly flow increases leading to PWATs of 2+ inches by the afternoon. This extremely moist environment is likely to support shower and thunderstorm activity as forcing and instability build ahead of the front into the evening. The severe threat appears to be fairly low since shear is weak and DCAPE will not be very supportive of strong microbursts. However, torrential rain rates are likely in any storms. An isolated flash flood risk exists since repeated rounds of storms are possible. Shower and storm chances will persist into Monday night and possibly into the early part of Tuesday until frontal passage occurs. Behind the front, drier and slightly cooler air works into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will bring dry weather and near average conditions through at least Thursday night. By the end of the week, the surface high drifts east which allows increasing southerly flow to bring chances for rain back into the forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Still some convection around the area to start the period but that will wane early. Expect visibility restrictions in fog to develop overnight. Periods of IFR will be possible with the greatest potential for that from KDAY to KILN. Visibilities will improve by 13Z. Cumulus will develop during the day with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again during the latter part of the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Monday, focused in the afternoon and early evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...