Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131833 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing southwest low level flow will allow for precipitation to develop across the region later this afternoon and into tonight. With temperatures near or below freezing, periods of freezing rain will be possible tonight into Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers moving across southern Indiana and Kentucky will affect the far southern counties late this afternoon with light rain. Otherwise clouds will continue to increase. Temperatures may rise another degree or two.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Southwesterly low level flow will continue through tonight and increase a bit through the overnight hours with a fairly persistent 20-30 knot 850 mb low level jet nosing up toward the Ohio River into Saturday morning. This will keep central and southern portions of our fa in an extended period of isentropic lift tonight into Saturday morning. As we continue to warm in the mid levels, any mixed precipitation should continue to transition over to all liquid across all but possibly our far northern areas overnight. However, some model differences exist as to the northward extent of the better pcpn overnight with the 00Z CMC and 00Z GFS taking the better pcpn up to just north of I-70 while the 00z NAM and moreso the 00Z ECMWF keep it farther south. Several of the higher res models are suggesting the more northern solutions may be correct, but then the 00Z NSSL WRF is farther south. Will therefore take likely pops up to just north of I-70 and then trim back to just chance across our far north. Surface temperatures across our north will be cold enough that any liquid pcpn will fall as freezing rain. This makes the northern extent of the freezing rain advisory a bit tricky and for now will generally limit it to areas where we have at least likely pops. This will give some wiggle room to later shifts depending on how later models trend. Meanwhile across the south, the limiting factor will be the surface temperatures as readings may struggle to drop below freezing. As a result, the southern extent of the advisory is a little tricky too. Here, we have used the forecast southern extent of the freezing surface temperatures as the cutoff for the advisory. This will again allow later shifts to tweak farther south if necessary. Of interest is that the METRo road model actually keeps road surface temperatures above freezing tonight from about Franklin County Indiana over to Ross County Ohio and points south. If this ends up being true, it would likely help limit the travel impacts across southern portions of the advisory area. Light northeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures from rising too much through the day on Saturday but they should eventually push above freezing across the north through the afternoon. This should allow for any lingering pcpn to transition over to all rain before tapering off as drier air begins to work in from the northwest. The drier air will continue to push south Saturday night so will drop back to just slight chance pops across the south overnight. The low level flow will back around to the southwest through the afternoon with some weak isentropic lift redeveloping from the southwest. This will allow for chance pops to spread back up across the area Sunday afternoon. Any pcpn looks to be fairly light, but temperatures may be cold enough to support some additional light freezing rain later saturday night into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Non-diurnal temperature trends will inhibit any chances of ZR over the northern CWA early on Monday, and the subsequent warm air push will keep rain as the wxtype from that point onwards. By Monday night and especially Tuesday, the surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region and drops a cold front and subsequent surface low development in the lower Mississippi Valley. This continues to bring an ever-increasing threat for persistent rainfall on Tuesday, possibly becoming moderate rain overnight. Added moderate rain to the forecast between 3 and 14z Wed where pops >65%. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day. Latest runs of the GFS hang the cold front back over southern CWA Wednesday and the European keeps the surface circulation in eastern Ohio and a threat for rain over southeastern CWA, decreasing through Wednesday night. Thursday shows a weak surface low tracking sw-ne through CWA and an increased chance of rain. Ran with slightly warmer than guidance on temperatures in the warm sector for the bulk of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Linger low clouds will continue to scatter early in the period. Rain tracking south of the terminals will spread into the Cincinnati area before 00Z and then diminish in the evening. Light precipitation will then be possible across the entire region overnight. Not enough confidence to go with much more than VCSH. But any precipitation north of the Cincinnati area may occur as freezing rain, so light icing is possible at other terminals, even with just passing patchy light precipitation. Ceilings will lower from south to north after 00Z eventually falling to IFR at all sites expect the Columbus area, which will stay MVFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for OHZ042-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-082. KY...Freezing Rain Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for KYZ091>093. IN...Freezing Rain Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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