Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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199 FXUS61 KILN 232333 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 733 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the northern Great Lakes region. As it does, a series of upper level disturbances will initiate showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will remain over the region and settle over southeastern Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. Any fair wx cu will quickly dissipate after sunset with light or calm winds expected overnight. This will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s in the northwest where some southerly flow may persist. Low temperatures in the southeast will generally bottom out around 50...but there could be a larger variance in sheltered areas that act as cold-air drainage pools.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high slowly moves east towards West Virginia Tuesday evening with a generally light southerly flow in the Ohio Valley found during this time. A mean upper level ridge is in place and a shortwave is progged to muscle through it overnight Tuesday. An increasing threat of showers will occur later overnight and into Wednesday, when added daytime heating would help deeper convection and thunderstorm development. Southerly flow over the region beyond tuesday will be the main surface feature for this portion of the forecast. Models are showing a larger than usual variance in how they are depicting the rain on tuesday night onward. European has an initial shot of showers and decrease the threat during the day Wednesday. NAM and SREF are consistent with earlier forecasts and a swath of rain hitting northwest cwa starting in the predawn hours and continuing into the overnight. GFS and European models are not nearly as copious with the rainfall or its areal extent. Tried to limit the showers and thunderstorms to the chance category and could see more scattered activity beyond late Tuesday night. Attm, it looks like the better chance for the H5 shortwave to initiate thunderstorm activity occurs overnight Wednesday. Models still give a wide range of solutions so confidence in the timing/placement of these showers is quite low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Extended period begins with a broad ridge over the ern U.S. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. Weak vort maxes in the increasing low level moisture will push dewpoints into the mid 60s on Thursday. Scattered convection will be possible as daytime heating creates summer like instability over the region. Bumped highs up a few degrees to the lower to mid 80s for Thursday. The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure centered over the region will allow for dry conditions through the TAF period for all terminals. Expect that Cu will quickly dissipate after sunset, allowing for SKC for all sites through 12z. Main concern overnight is expected development of BR/FG at KLUK. With calm winds, expect that BR will affect KLUK with river valley FG leading to reduced VSBYs later tonight. Low dewpoint depressions may also develop at KCVG, but models continue to differ on extent of low level moisture, so kept P6SM for now. Expect that Cu will again develop across the area Tuesday afternoon with cirrus gradually moving in from the west toward 00z Wednesday. Southerly winds will remain light through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...KC/Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...KC

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