Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260652 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 152 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR SE. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS A FEW CIRRUS WAFT IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NE TO THE LOWER 30S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH TROF OVER THE ROCKIES AND LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SRLY FLOW ON THE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WILL USHER WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WAA MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SFC WAVE EJECTING NE INTO THE MID MS VLY. SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE UP WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 30S WEST. NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC FRONT TO TRACK EAST THRU ILN/S FA SAT NIGHT. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE WEST SAT AFTN WITH TAIL OF 50-55 LLJ PROVIDING AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SO MILD TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY SATURDAY WITH FROPA. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO EXIST PRIOR TO COLD AIR ARRIVING. HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF R/S MIX TO SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE 12Z MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FEATURING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHEARING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VALLEY FOG AT KLUK WILL HAVE THEM BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH AND MIX OUT THE RIVER VALLEY. ASIDE FROM THIS...SOUTH WINDS WILL SEE SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED CI SPILLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...FRANKS

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