Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190011 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 711 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Weak returns are currently near interstate 71 this afternoon with light rain being reported at KCVG. Across the south temperatures have been a bit suppressed this afternoon thanks to widespread cloud cover while across the northeast temperatures have risen very quickly. KCMH has already broken its record high temperature for this afternoon as of 1230pm. The upper level low over Arkansas will continue to push east this afternoon helping to keep the precipitation mostly across the southeastern zones. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday morning a weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest and stall. Ahead of the front winds will decrease with moisture pooling out in front. This will make for a cloudy night and Sunday morning. Lower PWAT air will then clip the CWA and briefly allow PWATs to fall to around 0.40" (on both NAM and GFS). Heights will then continue to rise as a broad upper level trough exits the area. 850 mb temperatures Sunday are around 8 degrees C which would again support high temperatures in the lower 60s. The only concern with how warm we will get Sunday will be how long clouds from the morning hang around. Overall have tempered high temperatures a bit for Sunday given the morning clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended stretch of above normal temperatures will continue from Monday through Friday. Widespread temperatures in the 60s are expected with some isolated 70s also possible Monday, Tuesday, and Friday. A weak cold front will move through Tuesday allowing for some shower activity. A frontal boundary will meander around the area Thursday into Thursday night allowing for showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be gusty on Friday as the front lifts north and southerly flow increases. A strong cold front moves through Friday night. Thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday into Friday night with the front. This front will signal a chance to cooler conditions for Friday night into Saturday. Some very light snow cannot be ruled out on the back edge of this system and with some of the wrap around moisture. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Light rain is continuing to fall in an area of mid level deformation stretching from northern Kentucky into south central Ohio early this evening. This deformation axis is forecast to gradually weaken through the evening hours and any pcpn associated with it in the meantime should remain to the southeast of the TAF sites. The low level flow will veer to the northwest overnight as a weak front sags down from the north. The majority of both the synoptic and high res models are fairly aggressive saturating the lower levels below about 1000 feet as we head through the overnight hours. This may be a bit overdone but there is definitely a signal there for some lower vsbys and/or cigs. Will therefore allow for some IFR vsby and cig restrictions later tonight and into the morning hours on Sunday. Drier air will start to work down from the north through the day and this should allow for improving conditions through the later portions of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL CLIMATE...

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