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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 252148
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNITES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS