Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010550 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS (BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN. S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS. TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD GO SCATTERED. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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