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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 120843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS
FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR FOR MID
JULY WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH MID
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY
WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT PIVOTS NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF A WESTERLY ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET AND LEAD S/WV
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE QUESTION
FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO
OUR REGION. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW THAT
LOW CHANCES POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON (20 AND 30 PERCENT) AS THIS CONVECTION MAY SLIP INTO
THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES BY MID DAY
AND THE PCPN PROPAGATES EAST/SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE
REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CURRENT LEFT OVER
DEBRIS CLOUDS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. WILL
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IF ENOUGH
SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL ONLY
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TO SAG INTO THE NRN ZONES LATE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME PCPN MAY BLEED
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
AN INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
BE ENOUGH...LOW END MODERATE...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES BETWEEN
1500 J/KG (NORTH) TO 2500 J/KG (SOUTH). AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXITS FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. ALSO...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WITH THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT (BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ALOFT)...THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE CLOUD/PCPN DEPENDENT. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE SOUTH FOR HIGHS TO APPROACH 90...WITH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO
THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS AND A QUICKER START TO CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT INSOLATION.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SLOWLY DIG AFOREMENTIONED
LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE SRN ZONES MONDAY
MORNING TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP/APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME
UPPER SUPPORT...THERE STILL REMAINS THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT AS IT
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE PROSPECT FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
FRONT.

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT FOR
PCPN AND ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A FEW SHOWERS DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES SOUTHEAST AROUND DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DAYTON IS 70...CINCINNATI
72...AND COLUMBUS 72.  THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE FOR
DAYTON IS 72 IN 1918 AND 1940...FOR CINCINNATI IT IS 72 IN
1892...AND FOR COLUMBUS IT IS 70 IN 1892. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY WEATHER
STORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FOG AT
KLUK DURING THE NORMAL PRE-SUNRISE TIME PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
(WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH INDIANA DURING MID-DAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES OHIO. A VCSH HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA REMAINS VERY
LOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK/HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS