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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 200202
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances will bring chances for precipitation to the
region off and on through Thursday. A better chance for
precipitation will occur on Friday as a cold front approaches
and moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to work southeast thru
mainly the nrn portions of the fa. This convection has been on
the decrease with the lose of daytime heating and should die out
by midnight.

Srn sections will see clear skies tonight, with nrn counties
seeing partly cloudy skies early before turning mostly clear.

Temperatures across the north are rain cooled into the 60s, with
Bellefontaine at 59. They will hold steady for the first half
of the night before ending up in the upper 50s. Across the
south, temperatures should end up around 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another embedded weather disturbance within a large scale mid
level trough across the Great Lakes will affect northern
sections of the CWFA late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thus,
will continue with a chance of showers/storms there during this
time frame. Otherwise, a good portion of Tuesday will be dry
along with temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

A remnant boundary/trough axis will settle across the northern
forecast area later Tuesday night. By then, forcing and
instability will have waned that skies will range from partly
cloudy to mostly clear. Lows will range from the upper 50s to
the lower 60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper trough will pass north of the region Wednesday and meet
a relatively unreceptive airmass to create showers. Attm, they are
isolated at best and generally expected to be light. High pressure
will then keep the region dry until later Thursday as moisture gets
pulled into the region from the south and wrung out along a front in
the Great Lakes area. Even the chances on this day are marginal at
best but warm frontal processes will necessitate chance pops in the
northeast late in the day. Beyond Thursday the chances for storms
will increase and maximize on Friday and Friday night, lingering
into Saturday as a southern upper low moves northeast and the
surface cold front dives south. The cold front should push any
lingering storms along it south and away from the CWA by Saturday
night and high pressure will build back in with some instability
showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, much like todays weather.

Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday and
maximize a few degrees above normal on Thursday. They will then drop
into the 70s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s for
most nights will be maximized near 70 Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/W swinging through the base of an H5 trof over the Great
Lakes, continues to help convection pop across nrn IN into Ohio.
The convection is forecast to gradually dissipate over the first
few hours of the taf period, with the loss of daytime heating.
Have a tempo MVFR/IFR group in CMH/LCK based on the latest
radar loop. Carried VCTS/VCSH at DAY and ILN for the first few
hours.

After the storms come to an end, the skies should be mostly
clear. With the pcpn that moved through CMH/LCK, models are
suggesting the possibility of some MVFR fog after 06Z in those
locations.

Kept the tafs VFR after 12Z. Models have really backed off on
swinging another embedded disturbance into the region during the
taf period. Did develop some scattered VFR clouds however.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Sites