Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221332 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 932 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday night into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area. High pressure and dry conditions will then build back in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure centered over the middle Mississippi River Valley will build east into the Ohio Valley today. Skies are sunny as expected, and cumulus clouds may form by this afternoon. Highs will be similar to Sunday`s readings and to MET guidance, ranging from the upper 70s to around 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The center of surface high pressure will move slowly east toward the Atlantic seaboard tonight into Tuesday. Surface ridging will continue to extend westward into the Ohio Valley. Mainly clear skies tonight with light to calm winds will result in idea radiational cooling conditions. Lows will fall into the lower and mid 50s. Slight airmass modification under mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 80s by Tuesday afternoon. A mid level ridge will build over the Gulf Coast States through the end of the week. As it does, the mid level flow over the Ohio Valley will transition from southwesterly to more of a zonal pattern. Initially, some weak short wave energy will lift northeastward across the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. It looks like a weak warm front will also lift north across the area through the day on wednesday, but forcing with this boundary remains fairly weak. As a result, will maintain a dry forecast at this point on Wednesday. We will begin to moisten up Wednesday night into Thursday as a weakening cold front moves southeast into our area. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday night into Thursday. It will become warmer and more humid through the period ahead of the weak cold front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The threat for showers/storms should taper off heading into Friday as the weak front washes out across our area. Dry weather is then expected for the weekend as the mid level ridge builds northward into the Ohio Valley. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, with mid to upper 80s becoming more prevalent by Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With high pressure expected to remain over the region for the next day or two, tranquil weather conditions are expected. Northwesterly winds will remain under 10 knots through the forecast period, with some diurnal cumulus development this afternoon. MVFR/IFR fog is possible for KLUK early this morning, and again early Tuesday morning. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman/JGL LONG TERM...Hickman/JGL AVIATION...Hatzos

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