Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140831 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 431 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY. AREA OF CI STREAMING UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE WLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING. CAA ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. OVERALL THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT TODAY MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KNOCKED HIGHS DOWN TO THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE HIGH HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO H5 S/W AND SFC FRONT DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM INTO THE NW COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST UPPER LEVEL PVA AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 70S IN NRN KY. THE WARM UP WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...OFFERING COOL AND DRY WEATHER THRU MID WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD OUR AREA. A SECOND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME MODIFICATION IN FORM OF A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HAVE CHC POPS SAT NIGHT WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. CI SPILLING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD BE THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF TODAY. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY BE PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND KLUK TAF SITE AT DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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