Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250826 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 426 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large and deep area of low pressure over the region will move east and away this afternoon. A ridge will set up in its wake for tonight. Multiple systems will then work across the area from Friday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Strong and deep stacked low pressure system will move east this morning and early afternoon. In the cyclonic flow an area of moderate rain is moving into the flash flood watch that remains in effect through noon today. Was able to discern that the far northern counties could be peeled from the watch given all model guidance put rainfall at and southwest of metro Cincy this morning. Expect rapid improvement as the upper forcing exits later this morning, but some thunderstorms remain possible, along with their very high rainfall rates. Do not see the threat for supercell storms and tornadic circulations today given the progressive nature that is expected from the large scale circulations. If a discrete cell were to pop this morning however, it would bear watching and the threat of a tornado is very slim but not zero. For the rest of the CWA - showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be present and move east. Heavy rainfall is possible but will be brief as it would likely occur in individual cells that will have much more movement to them than yesterday`s storms. Highs will be muted for another day - generally looking at mid 60s across the board. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Rain will end early this evening in the Scioto Valley and areas north of Dayton and east of I-75. After about midnight, little if any rain will be found in the CWA and partial clearing will occur, especially south of the I-70 corridor and in Kentucky. Overnight lows will drop to the low and mid 50s, and the clearing to the south should not factor into the min temps dropping off any more in this location. Later on Friday, the ridging that was in place overnight tonight will see a shortwave and associated vort maxima undercut it, sparking some showers - potentially thunderstorms. Models diverge significantly with this feature and subsequent chances of rain in the region through the holiday weekend. Timing these storms late Friday is not possible given the fluid nature of the upper level pattern. Large model spreads in the evolution of the sensible weather patterns for the weekend equate to a low confidence forecast, with higher probability of rain occurring. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will slowly drop down across the northern Great Lakes through early next week. As it does, some weak energy will rotate around it, bringing some lower chances of precipitation through the rest of the long term period. Temperatures will also cool off a bit with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 low centered nr the OH/IN line will slowly work ewd aft 12Z. As this occurs, rain showers over ern Indiana will rotate around the low. The best chance of showers will occur at CVG/LUK with scattered showers at the other tafs. MVFR vsbys will possible in the showers. Bigger aviation issue will be the IFR ceilings that will wrap back across the tafs. Cigs will rise to MVFR with the heating of the day. As the upper low pulls into the Appalachians tonight, clouds will scatter out across the srn tafs. OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ070-077. KY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ089>096. IN...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ058-066-073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks/JGL AVIATION...Sites

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