Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211413 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1013 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS....DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE VAST MAJORITY OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ARE INDICATING THAT FOG HAS LIFTED OR BURNED OFF ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NORTHERN KENTUCKY VALLEYS...AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG. EXTENDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY TIL 11 AM. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY COMPARED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL ZONES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A BELLEFONTAINE...WILMINGTON LINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY ISOLD CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WILL BE LKLY AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UPR TO HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. CLOUDS AND SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. SIGNIFICANT S/W TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU ILN/S FA DURG PEAK HEATING WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WIND FIELDS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE EXPANDED LKLY POPS DURG THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HAVE A GRADIENT OF TEMPS FROM LOWER 80S FAR NW TO AROUND 90 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE NEXT INTRUSION OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AND DWPTS IN THE 50S...EVEN SOME HINTS OF 40S DWPTS IN CNTL OHIO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THURS/FRI SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER /70S TO AROUND 80F/ AND COMFORTABLE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT VERY STRONG TROUGH /REF THE COMPACT/STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED NEAR WASHINGTON STATE ABOVE/ AND ITS TIMING. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW WEEKS...THIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE ERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT CRESTS THE WRN RIDGE. BEST STORM CHANCES APPEAR CENTERED ON SUN /DAY 7/ AND MON /DAY 8/ BUT SOME HINTS OF LEADING ADVECTION INDUCED SHRA/STORMS SAT AFTN/NIGHT BUT THIS A VERY LOW CHANCE RIGHT NOW. WHILE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GOOD COOLING JUST BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT RESEMBLING COOL PERIOD OF THIS PAST WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOG HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS VLIFR AT ILN AND LUK...WHILE CVG AND LCK HAVE MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z WITH THE RISING SUN. EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. PRECIP IS NOT IN THE FORECAST WITH TAF SITES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE PERSISTENTLY HUMID AND STAGNANT AIRMASS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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