Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 312008 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 408 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN. S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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