Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231735 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 135 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. RETURN MOIST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL THIN A BIT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND A BAND OF PVA. THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL REGION WILL EVENTUALLY EXTENDED FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OUR AREA WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE HUMID. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF MONDAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE INTERACTING WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. DUE TO THIS HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVIDING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF THIN CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS...WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FORMING DURING DAYTIME. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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