Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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901 FXUS61 KILN 230003 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 703 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking east through the southern U.S. will be off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. High pressure and an upper level ridge will be in place for the Ohio Valley from then through about Wednesday morning, when low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CWA will have two different influences on the weather tonight. First and easiest to discern is the low pressure in the Gulf states at both the surface and aloft that will track northeast along the Appalachians. Southern and eastern portions of the CWA will see prevailing rain spread in from the south as the stacked low evolves. This rain threat will expand northward and westward. Next is the subsequent northeast flow over the region, affecting the northwest half of the CWA with the potential for fog overnight. Low stratus in northern Indiana and southern Michigan should expand overnight as a good temperature inversion traps available moisture underneath it for a second night running. Some spots well out of the CWA are showing the fog and low stratus persist through the day, and fog has been put in the forecast into early tomorrow northwest of the I-71 corridor, and a patchy dense mention north and west of metro Dayton. Earlier HRRR model was indicating a Lake Erie enhanced band of showers to drive southwest from Kenton through Sidney towards Richmond IN late today. Did not jump on this threat but still have brought in high-end chance pops by later overnight with the southern system, though there will likely be a definitive western edge of the rain/no rain somewhere in my western or northwestern CWA. Overnight temperatures will be seasonably mild and in the 40s for at least one more night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Rain will be over eastern CWA and exit to the east through the day. Low stratus over northwestern CWA - if it develops - will be hard pressed to move anywhere. Daytime highs will be nearly steady and only see a 2-3 degree increase from overnight lows. Overnight temperatures will not see large falls as the cold air will be slow to offset the high humidity air but still fall into the lower 40s. High pressure ridge crosses Tuesday and return southerly flow sets up in the west by evening and then by later overnight in the east. This return flow will inhibit lows from dropping off much from Monday night`s values - again within a few degrees of 40. As the low moves towards Lake Michigan by daybreak Wednesday, a slight chance of a pre-frontal shower is possible in the far northwest late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A significant pattern change will take place during the period as the well above normal temperatures are replaced by a more seasonal pattern. The period begins with a sfc low located mid MS valley. Models are showing a little spread on the exact location. Trailing south from the low is a cdfnt. As the low lifts ne through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, the front will push across the fa, so expect some scattered showers to affect the region. Temperatures will still be well above normal with highs ranging from around 50 in West Central Ohio to the upper 50s in the the Lower Scioto Valley and NE KY. Colder air will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but thicknesses should be warm enough that any scattered pcpn will fall as rain. By Thursday afternoon the thicknesses will start to be cold enuf for snow to mix in as an ern U.S. upper trof takes hold. Scattered lake effect snow showers will affect the region Thursday night into thru the weekend as upper level disturbances drop across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface low passing southeast of the region will result in northeast winds 10 to 15 kt slowly veering to north through the period. Rain north of the low will develop and spread towards most of the terminals around 06z. It appears that drier low level air will be replenished on the northeast winds, so central Ohio terminals and possibly KILN will have ceilings remain VFR until after 12Z. But elsewhere the rain, along with low clouds already to the northwest will combine to bring IFR ceilings to KCVG and KDAY. It does appear that the rain will cause MVFR visibility restrictions to occur. Ceilings will become MVFR across all terminals during the latter half of the TAF period, except KDAY which will likely remain IFR. The rain will diminish and eventually visibility restrictions will end late in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into Monday night and may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...

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