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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 160210
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FIRST EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED OUR AREA WITH
ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT...MODELS STILL ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION TO OUR WEST OVER ILLINOIS
AND MISSOURI WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST BUT SHOULD LOSE QUITE A BIT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA IS LOW AND THE
AMOUNT TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 200 AND 400
J/KG. SO...THINK BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PER LATEST
HRRR...WE SHOULD AN INCREASE IN SOME SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPPER 60S WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
BASED ON HOW FAST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PUSHES OUT AND
HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAGGING
FRONT. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND DECREASE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES EXIT TO THE EAST AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING THE PREDICTED LOWER 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACRS KY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NAM APPEARS OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE THE
PRECIPITATION. PREFER A BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF...ONLY ALLOWING LOW
CHC POPS IN THE SOUTH.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONT TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME THIS CHC APPEARS LOW.

MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.

UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING WILL
BRING SOME VFR CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHERN TAT SITES
EARLY ON. FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EYES TURN TOWARD NEXT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FORECAST WEAK
CAPE VALUES AND BEING AT THE DIURNAL CYCLE MINIMUM. SO...ALTHOUGH
SOME EMBEDDED STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT THEM AS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY LAY WEST TO EAST NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORCING AND LIFT APPEARS TO OCCUR IN THE
14Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH DECREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEIR COVERAGE WILL
BE SUBJECT TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING. RAIN COOLED AIR MAY PREVENT
REACTIVATION IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE MAIN DYNAMICS GO BY.
THUS...COVERAGE OF MAIN PCPN BACH AND ITS TIMING WILL DICTATE
ANY THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
SUCH...HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOCAL MVFR
CIGS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD THEY OCCUR GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN