Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260836 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 436 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A CDFNT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY. FORCING IS WEAK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA ON MONDAY AND A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS A HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION SO DRIED OUT MONDAY. HIGH TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD WARMUP. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NRN PORTION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FLATTENED AS TROF MOVES THRU SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN THRU SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT IS DYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE OHIO BORDER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. DID NOT CONTINUE THE PREVAILING BR IN TAFS BUT THINK THAT A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK AT KLUK. FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY IS VERY WEAK AND TSTORMS ARE DYING OUT ALONG IT AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BE RAPIDLY USHERED IN AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL MARK A DEFINITIVE END TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIKELY BE A CLEARING LINE WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE AND LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIP...HAVE CONTINUED VCSH DESCRIPTORS AT THE TAF SITES BUT USED A TEMPO SHOWER IN THE LATE DAY IN THE CINCY AND COLUMBUS METRO TAF SITES GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THERE A LITTLE LATER WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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