Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 349 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OHIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INSTABILITY EVIDENT EVEN AT THIS EARLY HOUR...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A HUMID AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AS IT IS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THICKENING CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST UP TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...SKY COVER WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RULE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BOOSTED A BIT BY WARM ADVECTION...GIVING HIGHS NEAR 80
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ACCELERATED THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE...YET STILL VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS ON THEIR FORECAST ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POPS RAMPING UP INTO THE DAY SATURDAY BASED ON THE FASTER TREND. KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID WEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE CMC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. AM FORECASTING MAINLY LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEING THAT HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SE PUSHING INTO TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING...SO STORMS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. EXPECT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS SOME FOG AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE PSBL AT KLUK...KILN AND KLCK. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS FOR THIS INITIAL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CONVERGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS MODERATE INSTBY DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SE OF I-71. HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR FROPA INTO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...AR

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