Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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310 FXUS61 KILN 271457 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1057 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will move east this morning, allowing low pressure to return, bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. After lingering showers end behind departing low pressure on Tuesday, high pressure will provide drier weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another area of low pressure is forecast to arrive for Thursday and Friday, carrying more showers and thunderstorms back into the weather picture. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting northeast out of southwest Indiana and central Kentucky should continue to weaken as it heads into the forecast area. Then will wait for convection to develop towards mid afternoon and spread into the area later in the day. Looks like most robust convection will affect the Cincinnati Tri-State. Damaging straight line winds seems to be the greatest threat for this afternoon, although could not rule out some small hail. Forecast highs look reasonable at this point.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... 1008 mb low pressure will be moving across Southern Indiana tonight to Ohio Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will continue this evening in the moist ascent ahead of the low. As instability diminishes and thunderstorms come to an end tonight, showers will linger through the overnight in a regime of persistent deep moisture surrounding the low. Showers will end from west to east on Tuesday as the low moves east and weakens, while the mid level short wave is replaced by a broad ridge. Temperatures will exhibit a bit of a cooling trend as modest cold advection occurs on a northerly low level flow behind the low. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Amplified upper level flow pattern with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes at mid week. In low level CAA pattern temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs on Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Upper level low to open up as it tracks from the southern plains into the Mid MS VLY Thursday and across the Great Lakes Friday. Latest GFS solution has adjusted now closer to ECMWF/Canadian solutions. In this amplified pattern, upper level ridge ahead of this low will keep the first part of Thursday dry. On the warm side of the system, temperatures will be above normal with highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Expect showers with a chance of thunderstorms to overspread ILN/s area Thursday afternoon/evening. In southerly flow moisture increases Thursday night into Friday. Will show a period of categorical pops and then diminish pcpn chances Friday night with the passage of a cold front. Temperatures to continue above normal Friday, ranging from 60 northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Surface high pressure to build across the region offering dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Highs close to normal Saturday from the upper 50s to the lower 60s and then warming about a category Sunday. Upper low approaching from the southwest to offer next chance for precipitation later Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Area lies under weak high pressure situated between low pressure systems to the north and southwest. Models have presented a relatively good depiction of this scenario for the last few days, lending some confidence to the forecast, though the details like visibility and ceiling height are still going to be tricky. VFR conditions will prevail until showers and thunderstorms will return this afternoon and evening with low pressure advancing from the southwest. Handled thunderstorms with VCTS, with later amendments pinpointing timing and duration. A period of MVFR is expected with the thunderstorms. CVG may experience IFR ceilings near the end of their 30 hour TAF in lingering low level moisture behind the departing low. Winds shifting from southwest to southeast are forecast to remain below 10 knots. Northwest winds are expected at CVG by 12z Tuesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible into Tuesday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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