Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 280133
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
933 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
High pressure off the east coast will result in warm and humid
conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Despite a persistent signal from the HRRR, showers and storms
coming off the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky and West
Virginia have been unable to hold themselves together as they move
NNW toward the ILN forecast area. Outside of one or two light
showers, the whole CWA has been dry tonight. With the loss of
daytime heating, this trend is unlikely to change, and a
generally dry forecast will be maintained through the overnight
period. A slight chance of a shower will remain in place in the
Portsmouth area for the next few hours.
There is a fairly wide range in dewpoints this evening. Some
valley locations (such as KLUK and KPMH) are in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. In western and central Ohio, dewpoints range from the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Where boundary layer moisture remains fairly
high, min temps will be more mild, and may remain as high as the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees (a slight increase from the
previous forecast). 18Z NAM/GFS runs were not in good agreement
with current obs on T/Td, so the HRRR was used as a primary basis
for the forecast update.
Previous Discussion >
Convection across the fa remains fairly capped as some drier mid
level air has worked into the region. An isolated shower did pop
up in Scioto County, so isolated convection is possible late this
As for the the rest of the night. Several of the
models, especially the convective allowing models are showing the
the orographic convection in WV and ern KY drifting n this evening
and possibly affecting the se portions of the fa. Carried a 20 PoP
between 00-06Z to cover this possibility. As for the rest of the
fa, went dry this evening as the best lift remains w of the fa.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the H5 ridge over the ern U.S. continues to protect
the region a little. The best lift will remain out over the plains
and MS valley in the vicinity of the H5 trof/low. Lowered PoPs
for tomorrow down to 30 percent as the lift looks disorganized,
but some weak vorticity lifting ewd should help pop some
Convection should die down again Saturday Night. By Sunday, some
moisture and energy from subtropical low that came onshore in the
Carolina`s will affect the region. This will interact with the
ejecting H5 s/w in the upper MS valley, to kick off some more
scattered thunderstorms. Still kept PoPs in the 30 percent range
Temperatures over the weekend will see highs in the lower to mid
80s. lows Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 60s again,
before cooing to the lower to mid 60s Sunday night.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather appears to be in store for Monday when weak surface high
pressure is forecast to develop under a flattened upper ridge. The
dry conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday as the
surface high travels slowly eastward on a weak westerly flow aloft.
Look for a transition to a more unsettled period starting Wednesday
when the upper flow backs to southwest, carrying a plume of moisture
to the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Went with lower
chances for thunderstorms Wednesday, increasing on Thursday when the
cold front and associated convergence and lift may be crossing the
region from the west. A few thunderstorms may linger into Friday in
decreasing moisture and forcing behind the front.
Temperatures are forecast to stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Monday through Thursday in the persistent southerly flow between
surface high pressure and the cold front. Readings may slide a few
degrees Friday in weak cold advection behind the front, with highs
still close to 80.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather conditions are expected through tomorrow morning,
with VFR conditions at all TAF sites, excepting for the usual fog
at KLUK. Some showers over West Virginia and eastern Kentucky may
eventually move into the region later tonight, but should be
dissipating, and are unlikely to have any impact at the airports.
Tomorrow, winds will remain similar to the past few days, with SSW
flow peaking out in the 10-15 knot range during the afternoon. The
chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be a little
higher, so a VCSH has been used for all of the TAFs. However,
there is still a lack of certainty on exactly where or when
any storms will develop.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on
Sunday. There will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms