Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280755 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 355 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING WARM DRY WEATHER. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE ILN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS POISED TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP THE ILN AREA FREE FROM PRECIPITATION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY. COLD ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. OPTED FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S...A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT DAYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FOR FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO ENTER INDIANA. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WHILE THE LATEST GFS NOW IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT. THIS POINTS TO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FACTOR WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE AND A PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...LOCATIONS WEST OF DAYTON WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH EASTERN SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM TEMPERATURE REGIME. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90. THIS COMPARES TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ACRS GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SOME THINNING MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. IN LIGHT WINDS FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. SOME DRIER AIR IN LIGHT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FOG FROM FORMING. HAVE A MENTION OF IFR AT FOG PRONE KILN/KLUK LOCATIONS. AFTER FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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