Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191300 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 900 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLEARING HAS SPREAD INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS PERSISTING IN SPOTS...AND A MORE SOLID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANYTHING THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CUMULUS AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. THE BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST SKY GRID TRENDS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD OR WIND FIELDS. THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST DID NOT APPEAR TO NEED ANY CHANGES...BUT IF PATCHES OF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...A FEW AREAS MAY NEED A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT LATER ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP. THIS HAS REDUCED THE THREAT FROM FROST. THE CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BEFORE SUNRISE LEAVING A THREAT OF FROST THERE. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS MORNING...BUT AS SUN HITS THEM WE COULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING...SO HAVE SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE CLOUDS KEEPING THEM AROUND IN THE SE UNTIL AFTERNOON. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY PROVIDING FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS...GFS AND ECMWF...TRY AND DEVELOP PCPN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT IN THIS PATTERN. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...NAM AND CMC REGION...ALONG WITH THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE LEAVING THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MAJORITY FORECAST AND DRY OUT TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 S/W AND SFC CDFNT ON MONDAY. KEPT THE POP CHANCES IN THE THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ON TUESDAY THE H5 ENERGY CUTS OFF OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SWD PROGRESSION AND LIKELY NOT REACH CVG/LUK UNTIL LATE MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL TURN WESTERLY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CI WILL ENTER OVERNIGHT AND COARSER GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SWATH OF PRECIP AFFECTING CVG BY 12Z AND BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE THROUGH 18Z. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK FOR KCVG/KLUK. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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