Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240150 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 950 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... As precipitation associated with a Great Lakes low stays north of the area, dry weather is forecast for tonight. The dry pattern is expected to continue Monday into Wednesday as high pressure builds from the northwest. Potent low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure is centered over the Southeast CONUS, with weak low pressure moving to Lake Michigan on a northwest flow aloft. With most forcing and lift confined to the north side of the low, the ILN area should remain free from precip tonight as the low scoots eastward through the southern Great Lakes to New York State. Cloud cover will likely increase in limited lift and moisture convergence, and it should be more prevalent in northeast counties closer to the weak low. Overnight lows will be kept up in the upper 40s by the cloud cover and by mixing resulting from winds of 5 to 10 knots. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak low pressure will be near the New England coast Monday morning, with an extensive area of surface high pressure moving back in on on northwest upper flow. Dry weather is indicated Monday through Tuesday night when the high will be shifting slowly eastward. Though no showers are expected, clouds will increase Tuesday in isentropic lift well ahead of developing low pressure over the north central states. High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday will be followed by lows in the mid 30s to around 40 Monday night, allowing patchy frost to form. Highs Tuesday recovering to the mid 50s to low 60s will be limited by the cool start and by the increasing cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain and have continued likely pops then. Wednesday`s high temperatures to range from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the system is slower then pops will be required. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure over southeast Michigan this evening will track quickly to the east, being located off the southeast New England coast by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will push southeast across the terminals between 06Z and 09Z, followed by a surface trough between 09Z and 12Z. Moisture and ascent will be focused along and to the left of the low track, so no precipitation is expected with frontal passage. Ahead of the front, a fairly strong low level jet will bring the potential for winds from the west/southwest between 50 and 55 knots at 2000 feet, and have placed LLWS in the northern terminals. This threat will end after frontal passage as the jet moves away. Otherwise, winds will veer to the west with frontal passage, then northwest to north with the trough passage. Sustained and locally gusty winds will diminish overnight. Models continue to suggest that some post frontal stratocumulus should develop behind the surface trough. The cloud height will likely be in the MVFR category, but ceiling potential will be relegated to the KCMH/KLCK terminals where TEMPO 1500 foot clouds were employed. On Monday, surface high pressure will build in from the northwest. Stratocumulus will mix and lift by 17Z such that only FEW-SCT clouds between 3500 and 4000 feet will exist. By Monday night, high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley. Skies will be clear at first with some mid/high clouds streaming in from the west late. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hickman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.