Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030612 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 212 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONVECTION STILL HOLDING TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHERN FCST AREA WHEREAS SOUTHERN STORMS HAVE DIED OUT WITH OUTFLOW OUTRUNNING THE STORMS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL OHIO STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST HIGH THIN COVER. GENERALLY KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER FEATURE COULD HELP CONVECTION LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNALS THAT AN MCS MAY FORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN THIS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT FELT THAT IT WARRANTED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GET TRAPPED IN WEAK FLOW AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WEAKNESS AMONGST BUILDING HEIGHTS. THUS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES SHOWING ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS FROM DAY TO DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVECTION IS FINALLY DYING OFF AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. LINGERING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG AT LCK...SO LIMITED THE FOG THERE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED EXPECT A LITTLE MORE FOG TO DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHERE LUK AND ILN WILL SEE IFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A VCTS AT ALL TAFS...BUT LIMITED THE WINDOW IN THE SW TAFS. AFT 00Z...THE S/W CONTINUES TO SLIP SE ACROSS OH. CONVECTION COULD LINGER LONGER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO KEPT A VCTS GOING ACROSS THE N. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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