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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 231755
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop southeast across the area today and will
interact with the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain today into
tonight. Behind the system, temperatures will drop below normal
for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest radar imagery continues to show showers and thunderstorms
filling in across our northwestern counties. Latest surface
analysis revealed a cold front pushing southeast across central
Illinois with Tropical Depression Cindy located over Arkansas.
At 23.12z the 250 mb analysis showed a jet streak located over
Wisconsin with a sub-tropical ridge located over Florida.
Streamlines clearly indicated upper level diffluence as wind
barbs showed splitting flow over northern Indiana. The best
upper level divergence (from a RRQ) was also located over
northern Indiana. Not surprisingly some totals above 4.00" have
been reported across the area. This upper level diffluence and
divergence will slowly sag southeast today along with the
surface cold front. At 500 mb the shortwave axis extended from
Arkansas north and east towards Indiana. The PWAT on the latest
KILN sounding was 1.93".

Latest high res guidance continues to show band of showers and
thunderstorms slowly washing over the area and sagging
southwards. Given the above have made only minor cosmetic
changes to forecast given current radar trends. Will also keep
flood watch as is with widespread rainfall totals of one to
three inches still in the forecast. Some isolated totals up to
four inches will be possible.

Prev Discussion->
A complex scenario is setting up across the region today. Deep
tropical moisture has been lifting into the region ahead of what
remains of Cindy. Band of showers associated with that moisture
has is now lifting across the nrn counties.

As the center of Cindy lifts north today, the models develop a
band of heavy rain across the region. Models have been
struggling with their placement of the band. The last few runs
of the RAP and HRRR have trended towards a more southern
placement, bringing the heavy rain swath into the Cinci Tri-
State around 12Z. Previous models were showing this a little
farther to the north.

So expect this first heavy rain band to affect se IN into srn
OH this morning. Then as the cdfnt drops south today, showers
and thunderstorms will drop down from nrn OH/IN and will combine
into a large swath. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will be possible in
the srn areas, with locally higher amounts possible. Will keep
the flash flood watch up as is.

In addition to the flood threat today, there will be a chance of
severe weather se of I-71. A 40-50 kt jet which is forecast to
move across TN into srn KY this afternoon, creates favorable
low-level shear. Storms will be capable of producing strong
winds along with a tornado.

Highs today will range from the mid 70s in the Whitewater Valley
to the lower 80s in the lower Scioto Valley and ne KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing this evening
with heavy rain still affecting the southeast. The precipitation
will push east of the region during the first half of the night.
Temperatures will drop down to the lower to mid 60s. An isolated
location in the nw might reach the upper 50s.

On Saturday, a S/W will swing across nrn OH in the fast
westerly H5 flow. Showers try to develop across nrn Ohio on
Saturday. For now left them north of the region, but this might
have to be adjusted in later forecasts. Highs will range from
the mid 70s in the nw to lower 80s in the se on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high will nose in from the sw Saturday night. The clouds
should scattered out as a result. Lows will drop down into the
mid and upper 50s.

Another S/W pivots through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Once again
this may lead to few showers but left the region dry at this
point. Temperatures will be cool Sunday, with highs in the
mid/upper 70s.

With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes
can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday.
Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be
about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and
middle 70s.

Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes
which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the
northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday
with highs generally in the mid 70s.

Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing
on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday
in the lower 80s.

Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow
increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.

The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through
the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn.  With an
increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A band of showers with some embedded thunder are currently
located along a KDAY to KCMH line. A secondary batch of showers
have formed just to the south with coverage expected to continue
into the afternoon. This secondary batch has had a little more
instability to work with and therefore some gusty winds will be
possible. A surface cold front was also currently located in
northwestern Indiana. Tropical Depression Cindy will also
continue to push northeast and bring a second batch of rain
which should be mainly south of the TAF sites.

During the day today most of the TAF sites will be MVFR with
restrictions to VLIFR in heavier cells. Later this evening the
front will slowly sag southeast pushing the rain southeast with
it.

Overnight tonight skies will slowly clear from the northwest as
the cold front pushes through. Guidance is hinting at some
lower visbilities Saturday morning as skies clear, but with
dropping dewpoints have decided to leave this mention out.
Saturday afternoon weak CAA overhead and ~20kt low level jet
will allow for some wind gusts in the TAFs. The GFS and NAM
forecast soundings are indicating around 20kts possible via
momentum transfer.

OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through
Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites
NEAR TERM...Haines/Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Haines