Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130545 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1245 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle south of the region tonight bringing drier conditions and much cooler temperatures for Friday. Precipitation will move back into the area beginning late Friday afternoon, bringing the threat of mixed winter precipitation through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Updated the forecast to linger precipitation longer this evening across the southeast. Precipitation is still expected to move out of the area before temperatures drop below freezing. With temperatures dropping below freezing overnight any lingering water on roadways could freeze and create some slick spots. Due to this have an SPS in place overnight to highlight this potential. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday starts off dry as the front and pcpn starts off in srn KY, but begins to lift north as isentropic lift increases. An arctic high over the Great Lakes will keep cold temperatures locked in at the boundary layer. Highs on Friday, will range from the lower 30s across the northwest to the upper 30s in the south. A location or two in the south might make the lower 40s. As mentioned above, the widespread lift will develop late Friday afternoon, spreading ne into the region Friday night. Forecast models/soundings are showing a surge of warm air aloft that would support the warm rain process. But with the arctic air locked in at the surface, the pcpn will be freezing rain/sleet by the time it reaches the ground. Across the far northern counties, a few tenths of an inch of snow may fall before the pcpn changes over to freezing pcpn. It is looking like the I-70 corridor is setting up to see the worst of the freezing rain accumulations with around a tenth of an inch possible. South of there, temps will be higher and in West Central Ohio, the snow will steal some of the pcpn. Temperatures will warm on Saturday afternoon, reaching the lower 40s in the south, the mid to upper 30s around I-70 and mid 30s in the extreme north. This should change the majority of the pcpn to regular rain. Will continue with the mention in the HWO, allowing one more model cycle before we issue an advisory, which should help in the placement and amounts. As temperatures cool back down Saturday night into the 20s and lower to mid 30s, there will probably be addition icing as the rain changing back to freezing rain. Northern KY looks like it will stay warm enuf for liquid rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure moving east through the lower Great Lakes will push dry air into the northern Ohio Valley early on Sunday. Before this happens, some early morning showers over the southern half of the CWA will result in the possibility of freezing rain just south of the I-70 corridor. This freezing threat will be brief, and occur with increasing temperatures in the morning and decreasing chances of precipitation. A warm front will lift northward overnight Sunday and northwestern CWA will stand a better chance for rain as it passes. The non- diurnal temperature trends will inhibit any chances of ZR over the northern CWA early on Monday, and the subsequent warm air push will keep rain as the wxtype from that point onwards. By Monday night and especially Tuesday, the surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region and drops a cold front and subsequent surface low development in the lower Mississippi Valley. This continues to bring an ever-increasing threat for persistent rainfall on Tuesday, possibly becoming moderate rain overnight. Added moderate rain to the forecast between 3 and 14z Wed where pops >65%. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day. Latest runs of the GFS hang the cold front back over southern CWA Wednesday and the European keeps the surface circulation in eastern Ohio and a threat for rain over southeastern CWA, decreasing through Wednesday night. Thursday shows a weak surface low tracking sw-ne through CWA and an increased chance of rain. Ran with slightly warmer than guidance on temperatures in the warm sector for the bulk of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings will persist for several hours behind a cold front. VFR can be expected from morning to evening, before precip develops along a boundary moving in from the southwest. MVFR ceilings will form again late in the forecast, and FZRA will occur starting around 03z as the surface cools to just below 32F. Winds shifting from north to east and averaging about 10 knots will bring the cooler temperatures necessary for FZRA. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Saturday through Tuesday. Freezing rain is possible again Saturday night into Sunday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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