Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160905 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 405 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO FAR WESTERN OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS WORKING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INTERESTINGLY...THE SHERB PARAMETER OFF BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON SOME OF THIS BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER VALUES MOVING THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND GET INTO SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES THEN LEVELING OFF OR EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT..WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MIX ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A STRUNG OUT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS STRUGGLES IN DEALING WITH ENERGY SWINGING OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY. AFTER WINDING UP A LOW AND LIFTING IT N INTO THE REGION WITH YESTERDAYS RUN...THE GFS NOW TAKES A QUICK MOVING SHEARED OUT H5 VORT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SPREADS PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION OF A TAKING A SLOWER A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT IS BACKED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. SO BROUGHT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE WE ARE ON THE EXTREME NRN EDGE..MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME SLEET OR RAIN MIXING IN. AS THE SFC PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W SWINGING THRU WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND WILL PULL PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK IN SATURDAY THRU MONDAY KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BOTH AHEAD AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 2000 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AFTER 15Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. BY NOON ANY LINGER SHOWERS WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAYDU

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