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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 190004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
804 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL LEAVE US IN A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING TO THE AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN OBS CO-LOCATED WITH WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
INDICATING THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS OUR AREA
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR AREA ENTIRELY LATER THIS
EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEREFORE MORE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

ONCE DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH INTO LIGHTER SHOWERS BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME BREAKS
SHOULD OCCUR. IF ENOUGH BREAKS DO DEVELOP WHERE PRECIPITATION
OCCURS TODAY...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG DEVELOPMENT. KEPT THE FORECAST
FOR FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW TO TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER. WENT ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AS THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A
SLIGHT WARM BIAS IN THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE EAST OF
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA. LINGERING LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
ACROSS THE WEST...A BUILDING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION FROM
OCCURRING.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE LOWEST...IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWERS 80S...IN THE EAST WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LOCATED AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER. IN THE WEST...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING UNDER THIS RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON MONDAY...IF SKIES DO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS
REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IF THE 12Z CMC/GFS SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
RIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO HAVE AN INCREASING AFFECT ON
OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 850 TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 16 TO 18 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE SO
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...ALTHOUGH WILL GO A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DROP DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST. THIS
WILL ALSO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...ALONG
WITH A SFC TD BOUNDARY AND MARGINAL INSTBY LED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KY THIS
AFTN. THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THEY ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. HAVE A MENTION
OF CONVECTION IN ALL BUT KDAY FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND THIS CLEARING WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK
WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. FOG WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DURG THE AFTN. DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE HAVE LIMITED MENTION
TO VCSH AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR