National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 050855
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG A BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH PART OF THE FA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN
BY MODELS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
DRIER AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION. OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT THIS
PATCH OF SNOW TO SPREAD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE SNOW WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL IT GETS INTO OUR AREA. A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
MINOR SNOW EVENT.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION WHILE
CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO UP TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EARLY TONIGHT ROUGHLY
ALONG I-70 BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

FOR THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIELD THE AREA FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW HIGHS AVERAGING 40. EXPECT MORE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION...NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS WEAKER
TREND...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS A BIT AND JUST HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... YIELDING PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH ANY PCPN AND A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOME CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNTIED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A PASSING DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LIKELY BECOMING BKN BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF FCST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR