Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251754 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 154 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB WAS GENERATING CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AS WELL AS ADD A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES FOR THIS AFTN: STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL SFC BASED/MIXED LAYER INSTBY TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST. VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW. WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY AFTN. MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS. MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...HICKMAN

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