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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 030934
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON A DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPECT
VSBYS TO IMPROVE AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE. WENT ON THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE
AREA.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SE PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.
MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY SE PORTIONS
OF THE FA DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL ALLOWING FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL
ACCUMULATE HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDED IN
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A BREAK TO
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPEARS POISED TO MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN MIST/FOG AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AS WELL MAINLY FROM KDAY
TO KCMH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WHICH SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...

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