Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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048 FXUS61 KILN 070119 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 919 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach the region this evening, and move across the area Monday into Monday evening. This till bring a renewed chance of showers and some thunderstorms. The front will stall near the Ohio River and then dissipate into midweek, keeping periodic chances of showers/storms through the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Most of the local area is dry as of sunset, but some decaying clusters of SHRA/TSRA upstream in IN will eventually work their way into far wrn parts of the ILN, specifically WC OH through EC/SE IN, through midnight. This activity should remain isolated (and mainly elevated in nature) and continue to slowly wane through the overnight, but we may not be completely clear/devoid of activity until very late as some elevated instby will remain entrenched across the region through the near term period. This low-end coverage is favored to stay mainly near/W of I-75, although suppose a stray SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out just about anywhere. A seasonably warm/muggy night is in store as temps dip into the lower 70s by daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With the weakening mid level shortwave and associated frontal boundary sagging south into the area on Monday, expecting diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms to develop near and south of the boundary, with the greatest coverage generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. Deepening moisture will pool ahead of the frontal boundary, with PW values approaching 1.9, or above the 90th percentile for early June. This combined with relatively slow storm motion and 0-6km shear at less than 15 kts will warrant a mention of heavy rain and a potential for isolated localized flooding across especially the south. As with the shear, other severe parameters remain weak, but can`t rule out strong winds associated with a downdraft or outflow boundary interaction. The greater concern will be pockets of heavy rain in slow moving storms. Expect diminished shower/storm coverage Monday night, but still a slight change across the southern forecast area. Overnight lows in the upper 60s. With increasing clouds at peak heating, not overly confident in heat index values reaching 100, though will still mention this potential across the south as well. Highs in the mid 80s north of the boundary, with near 90 to lower 90s across the south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the cold front moves across much of the area on Monday, confidence is fairly high that the better moisture will placed over the southern most locations (northern Kentucky & southern Ohio) of the area. These areas should expect scattered downpours and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, more isolated showers/downpours are forecast. Given the high moisture (PWATs >1.8") content across the south, locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding remains possible. There is the possibility of a reprieve from the more rich moisture on Wednesday due to the lingering air mass behind the front, however, the area will not see dry conditions. Another weak shortwave is expected to move into the region, driving downpours and thunderstorms once again. Depending on the strength of the shortwave, there is some potential that the more rich moisture will make a faster return, especially for Wednesday evening. So while WPC currently doesn`t have a mention for locally heavy rainfall in the DAY 4 outlook (WED) for the local area, this could change depending on how the pattern trends. For Thursday, uncertainty increases as the GEFS/ECMWF ENS diverge on the pattern evolution. Since the ECMWF ENS are weaker with the trough, the dryness on Wednesday leads to a wetter solution on Thursday when compared to the GEFS. Overall, the big picture remains the same as far as the forecast goes. There will likely be more downpours/thunderstorms on Thursday, with the details on locally heavy rainfall risks likely delayed until the day gets closer. While there will still be a weak system that lingers in the area Friday, the primary feature to watch will be a stronger trough moving into the northern Plains Friday and eventually into the Great Lakes Saturday. This would present the opportunity for a more strongly forced system for next weekend. Given the clouds and rainfall in the forecast, temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal throughout the entire extended. Some days may be a few degrees cooler than currently forecast depending on the amount of lingering cloud cover from the previous day`s convective activity. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FEW/SCT VFR Cu will decrease in coverage early in the period, although some may linger through the night, particularly for wrn sites of KCVG/KLUK/KDAY. Otherwise, dry conditions are favored, with a very spotty SHRA possible at wrn sites into the overnight as decaying storm activity from the W works into the local area. The main concern for the TAF period is the expectation for SCT to numerous TSRA to develop past 15z, with greatest coverage favored near/E of I-71. This should be maximized during peak diurnal heating -- approximately 16z-22z before coverage wanes toward 00z Tuesday. Of course, brief/sudden reductions in VSBYs and wind speed/direction will be the primary concern with the heaviest activity, but this will be handled with amendments as needed. Some BR/MVFR VSBYs may develop once again at KLUK in the several hours prior/near daybreak, but VFR conditions are favored otherwise. Cu development will be quick by 15z, with storm initiation not far afterwards. Light SW winds at 5kts or less will be maintained overnight before increasing to around 10kts past 15z once again. Winds will go more out of the WNW with the approach of the weak front late in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low stratus or BR/FG are possible early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening, Tuesday through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...KC/JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...KC