Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221051 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 651 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will continue today as high pressure moves off to the east. A cold front and waves of low pressure will bring showers Monday, with showers lingering Tuesday in the cool and moist northwest flow behind the front. Temperatures starting out much above normal today will fall well below normal by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes is keeping a warm southerly flow across the Ohio Valley today. Humidity generally remains low through much of the air column, with cloud cover consisting of cirrus and altocumulus. Expect no precip, with clouds thickening ahead of the cold front due to arrive on Monday. Temperatures rising to the upper 70s will be around 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Clouds will continue to thicken early tonight as moisture deepens ahead of the cold front. Showers will enter western counties by Monday morning, before overspreading the entire area Monday afternoon. Intensity and coverage of showers will be enhanced by a wave of low pressure traveling northward along the front through Kentucky and Ohio. Around an inch of rain can be expected during Monday. Temperatures will begin to slide due to precip and cloud cover, with highs reaching around 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weather pattern to turn colder and wet early this week as a digging mid level trof interacts with a closed low over the lower MS Vly. Deepening surface low to rotate nne through the OH Vly Monday afternoon and into the Great Lakes Monday evening. Will continue categorical pops Monday evening and then diminish to chance pops early Tuesday as the low lifts north. A rainfall event of 1 to 2 inches will be possible, so will continue to mention moderate rain during the evening. Given recent dry period this rain event should not present widespread flood issues. Energy drops southeast carving out a mid level over the Great Lakes Tuesday. Model solutions have trended deeper with this system. This will keep a chance of showers in the forecast with the best chance across the northern counties. Temperatures will turn colder with highs Tuesday of 55 to 60. Embedded shortwave in the northwest flow to drop southeast into the mean trof position Wednesday. This will continue to keep the threat of showers in the forecast. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Expect highs generally in the lower 50s. Surface high pressure to build into the region Wednesday night. Depending on cloud cover, frost will be possible Wednesday night with lows in the mid/upper 30s. Surface high to slide east across the region Thursday with temperatures beginning to moderate some. Expect highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Mid level flow amplifies with trof developing over the nations mid section at the end of the week. Model solutions differ on timing of the approach of the moisture axis and next front. ECMWF is slower and looks reasonable given the high amplification. Will only allow a slight chance in the west late Friday afternoon and then across the region Saturday. In a low level southerly flow temperatures are expected to warm to highs ranging from near 60 northwest to the upper 60s southeast on Friday. Clouds and pcpn may keep temperatures a little cooler Saturday, but if timing slows down readings could reach the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Conditions will stay VFR through today and tonight except at LUK where BR has reduced visibility to MVFR early this morning. Sky cover consisting of mid and high clouds will thicken by the end of the forecast as a cold front moves in from the west. CVG LUK DAY and ILN should see showers in the vicinity by early Monday morning. Moderate showers are expected at CVG by the end of their 30 hour forecast, while conditions become MVFR. Winds from the south will rise over 10 knots this afternoon, with speeds not subsiding much tonight under a tightening pressure gradient. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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