Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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513 FXUS61 KILN 160927 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 427 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will slowly track across the lower Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure will build south of the region mid to late week. Today will be the coldest day of the week with temperatures slowly moderating each day heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Southwest to northeast oriented band of snow will continue to slowly translate east through the day. This will allow snow to linger into midday for the far southeast counties. Snow will generally remain light but persistent with another inch possible where it lasts longest. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that some clearing in nudging into western counties early this morning. It appears that clouds will temporarily erode across the entire area to the north of the snow band. However, stratocumulus will develop/move southeast through the afternoon. With the stratocumulus there could be some flurries. Little change to forecast highs. However, was able to scale back the wind chill advisory in both area and time based on latest apparent temperatures forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Upper low will move east across the lower Great Lakes with the trailing positively tilted trough translating across the forecast area through the period. Stratocumulus will persist tonight into Wednesday morning with some decrease expected later in the day. Flurries will remain possible with these clouds. Expect clouds to keep temperatures from bottoming out tonight, although any substantial breaks in the clouds could allow a quick drop. Still looks like readings should be able to get into the lower 20s on Wednesday. Wind chill is forecast to fall below zero tonight into Wednesday morning but should stay above the -10F advisory threshold. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry conditions will be present Wednesday night through Friday night. There will be a gradual warming trend during this time, however some negative single digit wind chill values will still be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few showers will be possible Saturday into Sunday with a warm front. A majority of the precipitation will hold off until Sunday night into Monday as moisture is brought up into the area in advance of a frontal boundary. The colder air is slower to move into the region and therefore held off on any snow until later in the day on Monday. Winds will pick up through the day with wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph possible. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Observations upstream as well as near term guidance suggests that lower clouds will diminish before 12Z leaving VFR conditions. At this point, it appears that an increase in low level moisture which may result in MVFR ceilings redeveloping will not occur until after 18Z. However, confidence in the low cloud forecast is low. Once MVFR ceilings become reestablished, they will likely continue through the end of the period with a lower to below 2000 ft forecast. West winds around 10 kt will diminish a bit during the day and then back to southwest tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ026-034-035- 042>045-051>053-060>062. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ081-088. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ064- 065-073-074-078>080-082. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ097>100. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>096. IN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for INZ050-058-059- 066. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.