Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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492 FXUS61 KILN 260839 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 439 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers and possible a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Two issues that need to be dealt with for the beginning of the forecast period. First is the Frost Advisory in Central Ohio. Due to persistent cloud cover, temperatures have stayed warmer than previously thought. Also based on the latest satellite loop it looks like the clouds will linger through sunrise. So will be dropping the Advisory with 4 AM issuance. Second issue is the area showers working ewd through IL and IN. Last couple of volume scans have shown what appears to be a weaken trend. Still think that some of the showers will hold together into the Whitewater Valley and West Central Ohio. This is supported by the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP. Not sure that is will really produce measurable amounts, so will carry some scattered sprinkles for the first few hours of the forecast. During the late morning hours, the better isentropic lift across a warm front will shift north. This should keep pcpn chance this afternoon across nrn Ohio, and will allow some sunshine to the srn counties. Temperatures in nrn KY will warm to around 70, however as you head n, highs will drop to the mid 50s for the extreme nrn counties of the fa. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight a H5 s/w digging thru the upper Great Lakes will push a compact sfc low and cdfnt into the fa. The trend of the finer resolution models have been to delay the onset of the pcpn. So slowed down the PoPs several hours, waiting until midnight (04Z) to bring likely PoPs into the nw counties. There is still questions about how the srn part of the pcpn will hold together. Kept likely PoPs n of I-70 and tapered the pops down to chc and slgt chc as you head south. The amount of instability is also in question tonight. It is very marginal, but don`t want to keep flip flopping, so since the previous forecast had slgt chc thunder, will leave it in the forecast. Bumped up lows to range in the 50s, with a few upper 40s. With the slower solution, Thursday would begin with the front still across the fa along with pcpn. Highest PoPs will be in Central Ohio with decreasing values both south and west. Expect the pcpn to be e of the fa by noon. Temperatures look like they will be non-diurnal Thursday, with high temperatures occurring during the late morning hours before the cooler air works in. High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night and the high will be centered over the area Friday morning. Lows Thursday night will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. The area of high pressure will push off to the east Friday allowing southerly flow to push highs back into the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Winds will pick up on Saturday out of the southwest. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. These warm winds out of the southwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the area. High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above normal, however still around 5 to 7 degrees below record at this time. The forecast high on Saturday at CMH is 75, record 80, normal 60. The forecast high on Saturday at CVG is 78, record 83, normal 62. The forecast high on Saturday at DAY is 75, record 82, and normal 59. A frontal boundary will work through the region on Sunday. Moisture is limited with this feature and therefore went dry to chance for precipitation chances. The best chance of some light shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area around CMH. High pressure will then work into the area Sunday night into Monday. There is not a significant precipitation signal for the end of the long term and therefore went with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SCT to BKN deck of mid and high level clouds will persist through the remainder of the overnight period for the TAF sites. With these clouds in place and the flow unlikely to go completely calm, fog potential will be quite limited, even for KLUK. Scattered -SHRA across eastern IL will continue to work east through the overnight and early morning hours. Hi-res suite of models show some of this activity holding together into west- central Ohio towards sunrise. While the ARW/NMM/RAP indicate just some spotty very light rain showers for KDAY around 12z, the most recent several runs of the HRRR have been a bit more robust in sustaining the activity through west-central Ohio. Do think the HRRR is being too aggressive, but decided to go with a VCSH for just KDAY during the morning hours to account for this potential. SCT/BKN mid and high level clouds will stick around through the day Wednesday as a sfc low pressure approaches the region from the west towards the end of the TAF period. Latest model runs, including high-res solutions, have backed off on the onset of scattered -SHRA working into western terminals. Do think scattered showers will approach KDAY around/shortly after 03z Thursday. Have left out mention of precip for now at all other sites except for 30-hr KCVG as activity will likely move through after 06z Thursday. Winds will veer more easterly and then southeasterly through the day. Winds will be 10-15 kts, with the potential for a few gusts to 18 kts during the afternoon, especially for KDAY. Towards the very end of the period, winds will go more southwesterly for western terminals as the cold front approaches Thursday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.