Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 202 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78 INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME. CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY. SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...KURZ

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