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477
FXUS61 KILN 121504
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1104 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday, particularly
in the afternoon and evening before drier conditions briefly returns
for the start of the workweek. Warm temperatures drop closer to
normal on Sunday and Monday, with warmer and more humid air
returning by midweek. Several rounds of showers and storms will be
possible midweek and beyond with a return to a more active pattern.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A lead mid level shortwave lifts northeast from the mid MS Valley
into the Great Lakes today getting absorbed into a larger/deeper
trough digging into the Great Lakes. The Ohio Valley is in a warm
southwesterly flow which supports hot and humid conditions with
increasing instability to support storms this afternoon.

Main concern is the potential for severe storms this afternoon into
this evening. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop in the
unstable airmass with SBCAPE values around 2500 J/kg within a
uncapped environment. Initial convection expected to develop around
midday aided by a pre-frontal trof across the western counties.

With initial shortwave pivoting into the Great Lakes - better wind
flow will remain north of the area. Deep-layer shear will be weak,
with effective shear around 15 kts, so storm organization should be
limited. DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg suggest that gusty to
damaging winds will be possible due to downburst/outflow with the
strongest storms.

This initial activity will push off to the east before another
area of storms moves into the west late in the day into this evening
and weaken as they track east due to loss of heating.

Locally heavy rain and isolated flooding is also possible due to
PWat values around 125% of seasonal normal.

High temperatures look to top out around 90 degrees with surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s yielding heat indices approaching 100
degrees.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Coverage of storms should decrease late into the evening as instby
wanes a bit. This being said, a few ISO SHRA/TSRA may linger into the
overnight hours as the S/W works E through the region. Although the
sfc front will still be back to the W quite a bit, the forcing should
decrease late in the night as the midlevel S/W pivots off to the E
by the predawn hours. Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight
as temps dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s by daybreak Sunday.

The primary system will continue to pull away from the OH Vly into
the day Sunday, with the trailing "cold" front laying out from NE to
SW across the local area by Sunday afternoon. LL convergence along
this feature should be quite weak as the boundary gradually begins
to wash out in the region. LL flow will become largely unidirectional
across the area by midday, with no substantial forcing or lifting
mechanism. This being said, do expect some ISO SHRA/TSRA to develop
once again, particularly near/S of I-70 and E of I-71 where the best
instby will reside (ahead of the front) by mid/late afternoon.
Coverage and strength of storms Sunday should be lower than will be
the case today, despite the ill-defined front draped across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Given current expectations that much of the thunderstorm activity
will develop south and east of the I-71 corridor Sunday afternoon,
confidence is high that any lingering activity likely drifts
southward into central Kentucky Sunday night. Very low PoPs remain
in the south for Sunday night and Monday due to some deeper moisture
lingering along the stalled front.

As the ridge builds over the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday,
a weak shortwave begins to eject from the middle Mississippi River
Valley. Due to some timing differences in the resurgence of deeper
moisture from the southwest, low PoPs are reintroduced area wide by
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Even with the low PoPs, Tuesday is
likely to be dry for much of the area. This changes significantly
heading into midweek.

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be quite stormy with deep
moisture arriving with the shortwave drifting into the area from the
west. This moisture persists over the region Wednesday and Thursday,
combining with the arrival of the trough and cold front Friday.
Convective activity over several days within a broad region of 1.8-
2.2" PWATs will favor periods of flash flooding in addition to the
typical summer-like downburst severe threat. The timing of the
shortwave will be key to determining the window where weather
impacts may be highest. For now, Wednesday and Wednesday night looks
to be the primary window.

Uncertainty in how quickly this wet pattern breaks down is quite
high by the end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail area-wide through 15z. Expect a healthy
VFR Cu field to sprout by/after 15z, with SCT to numerous SHRA/TSRA
development shortly thereafter. The greatest coverage should
initially be focused across the W/SW half of the local area,
especially for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN, by 18z before clusters of
SHRA/TSRA shift off to the E toward KCMH/KLCK by 20z or so.
Additional activity is expected to move in toward/beyond 00z from the
W before waning late in the period with eastward extent. Abrupt
changes in VSBYs and wind speed/direction will be possible with any
of the SHRA/TSRA activity and will be handled with amendments as
needed.

Some MVFR CIGs are expected to overspread the area past 06z through
daybreak Sunday before lifting/scattering once again by 15z. Some
MVFR VSBYs cannot be ruled out tonight, but the expanding MVFR
stratus should inhibit widespread FG development.

Light SW winds at 5kts or less early this morning will increase to
10-15kts, with gusts close to 20kts possible, by this afternoon.
Winds will decrease following the storm activity, but should
gradually become more out of the WSW by daybreak Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and again on Wednesday,
with the greatest chance during the afternoon and evening on both
days. MVFR conditions are possible into early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC