Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270243 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1043 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push through the region overnight. High pressure will then provide dry weather through mid week . Precipitation chances will increase toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A weak cold front will move southeast through the region overnight. A few showers will accompany the front, with skies clearing after passage. Lows will be chilly, ranging from near 50 north to the lower/mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Precipitation could be lingering in the southeast very early Tuesday, but will move off to the southeast. In northwest flow pattern, surface high pressure to build into the region Tuesday. With cold 8H pool over the region expect some shallow high based cumulus clouds to develop. Tuesday will be dry with rather cool highs from the lower 70s northeast to the mid 70s southwest. Surface high pressure to slide east of the region Tuesday night. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds will give way to clear skies early Tuesday evening. Expect cool lows from near 50 northeast to the mid 50s southwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Wednesday morning, surface high pressure will be centered over West Virginia, with a relatively dry air mass remaining in place across the Ohio Valley region. With heights rising, and southerly flow firmly in place in the low levels, warm advection should be notable -- with a temperature rise to near 80 degrees. As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and beyond, mesoscale details will play a significant role in exact timing and placement of precipitation. A frontal zone is expected to set up east-to-west across the southern Great Lakes beginning early Thursday, but despite this, theta-e and wind plots suggest the ILN CWA will remain in the warm sector (a regime of solid deep-layer southwesterly flow) through Saturday afternoon. This will tend to favor convective initiation upstream (north and northwest) of the ILN CWA on Thursday and Friday, with eventual some propagation downstream which should impact the ILN CWA. PoPs have been focused on the northern sections of the CWA, with greater expectations during diurnal or post-diurnal time frames (afternoon through evening / early overnight). A shortwave moving east across Lake Michigan will provide extra support for convection Friday evening, but this too seems likely to not land a direct hit on the ILN CWA. It may take until cold frontal progression on Saturday / Saturday night before chances increase CWA-wide, and PoPs were increased on Saturday to reflect this. Through this period, how much of the CWA remains capped is a question, and mesoscale foci / localized forcing will help decide if storms can develop within the warm sector. With ample instability and at least somewhat favorable deep-layer shear, some heavy rainfall / strong to severe storms could be possible from Thursday through Saturday. Confidence in any specifics will keep this out of the HWO for now. With a clearing push behind the cold front late Saturday, models have trended drier for Sunday, before warm advection begins to bring a chance of precipitation into the area again on Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An embedded upper level disturbance will rotate east across the southern Great Lakes overnight. As this occurs, a weak frontal boundary will slip southeast across the terminals this evening into early morning. There will be a chance of showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm along and ahead of this boundary. Clouds will decrease in coverage behind frontal passage. For Tuesday, under northwest flow aloft, SCT cumulus will form during the heating of the day. Surface high pressure will build east toward the Ohio Valley through the day, moving across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Diurnal cumulus will gradually dissipate after 00Z, leaving mainly clear skies for the overnight period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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