Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180547 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 147 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN IL/SRN IND SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENING. AREAS OF MID CLOUD ARE SHIFTING THROUGH SRN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY BUT PLENTY OF CLEARING IN BETWEEN. UPSTREAM IN ERN IL/WRN THERE IS MORE MID CLOUD BUT THIS IS BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP A SKY COVER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT /HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH/ MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THESE TRANSIENT MID CLOUD DECKS ATTENDANT TO THE WEAK WAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND WINDS ARE CALM WITH SURFACE HI IN CONTROL. T/TD SPREADS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM 6F TO 13F AT 01Z...AND GIVEN FCST SNDGS THINK THE VALLEYS WILL FOG TONIGHT RATHER DEEPLY WITH SHALLOW FOG OTHER AREAS. ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST EMPHASIZING VALLEYS/DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG SIGNAL IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA PER NWP BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A POCKET OR TWO HERE. TEMPS LOOKED DECENT AT THIS HOUR WITH LARGE VARIATION FROM POPULATED CORRIDORS TO RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS...TYPICAL OF A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED ON BIAS TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ELY FLOW SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR IFR FOG AT LUK THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ILN. WEAK CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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