Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251356 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 956 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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DIGGING UPR LVL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 3K-5K RANGE WILL GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WESTERN PARTS THIS MORNING DUE TO WEAK WAA IN THIS LAYER. THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY A FEW DROPS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE. BY AFTERNOON... WITH DIURNAL MIXING...THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST TO NEAR 70 WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACRS NRN LOCATIONS COMPARE TO YESTERDAYS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PEAKING NEAR YESTERDAYS HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY...SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NON DIURNAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES WILL BE SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...RECORDS LOOK SAFE AS THEY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MONDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY ERRATIC CONTINUITY WITH ITS PAST RUNS WHILE THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT. ALL IN ALL...THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THE FASTEST AND THE CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE. IN EITHER CASE...PCPN SHOULD INCREASE FASTER INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS SUCH. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHIFTING TIMING...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW. IT WILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN INCREASING...NOT AS MUCH AS MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOLER AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY. CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS INDIANA...AND WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER INDIANA...BUT THIS HAS NOW DISSIPATED. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GO CLEAR DURING THE EVENING...AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON DAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW BY LATE AFTERNOON...REMAINING SLIGHTLY GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET. WNW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED HEADED INTO SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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