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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 230032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
832 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA IN A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CI WILL WORK THRU THE NW H5 FLOW. AN
AREA OF VFR SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 S/W IS WORKING SE ACROSS NRN
OHIO. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME SCT SC TO CMH/LCK FIR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BUT NW WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER 10KTS THRU 04-06Z.

AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...CAA AT H8 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CU TO POP
BY LATE MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE E...BUT EVEN THERE
ONLY WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLIP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES