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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 270243
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push through the region overnight.
High pressure will then provide dry weather through mid week .
Precipitation chances will increase toward the end of the week
as temperatures warm to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front will move southeast through the region
overnight. A few showers will accompany the front, with skies
clearing after passage. Lows will be chilly, ranging from near
50 north to the lower/mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation could be lingering in the southeast very early
Tuesday, but will move off to the southeast. In northwest flow
pattern, surface high pressure to build into the region Tuesday.
With cold 8H pool over the region expect some shallow high based
cumulus clouds to develop. Tuesday will be dry with rather cool
highs from the lower 70s northeast to the mid 70s southwest.

Surface high pressure to slide east of the region Tuesday night.
Diurnally driven cumulus clouds will give way to clear skies
early Tuesday evening. Expect cool lows from near 50 northeast
to the mid 50s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Wednesday morning, surface high pressure will be centered over
West Virginia, with a relatively dry air mass remaining in place
across the Ohio Valley region. With heights rising, and southerly
flow firmly in place in the low levels, warm advection should be
notable -- with a temperature rise to near 80 degrees.

As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and
beyond, mesoscale details will play a significant role in exact
timing and placement of precipitation. A frontal zone is expected to
set up east-to-west across the southern Great Lakes beginning early
Thursday, but despite this, theta-e and wind plots suggest the ILN
CWA will remain in the warm sector (a regime of solid deep-layer
southwesterly flow) through Saturday afternoon. This will tend to
favor convective initiation upstream (north and northwest) of the
ILN CWA on Thursday and Friday, with eventual some propagation
downstream which should impact the ILN CWA. PoPs have been focused
on the northern sections of the CWA, with greater expectations
during diurnal or post-diurnal time frames (afternoon through
evening / early overnight). A shortwave moving east across Lake
Michigan will provide extra support for convection Friday evening,
but this too seems likely to not land a direct hit on the ILN CWA.
It may take until cold frontal progression on Saturday / Saturday
night before chances increase CWA-wide, and PoPs were increased on
Saturday to reflect this. Through this period, how much of the CWA
remains capped is a question, and mesoscale foci / localized forcing
will help decide if storms can develop within the warm sector. With
ample instability and at least somewhat favorable deep-layer shear,
some heavy rainfall / strong to severe storms could be possible from
Thursday through Saturday. Confidence in any specifics will keep
this out of the HWO for now.

With a clearing push behind the cold front late Saturday, models
have trended drier for Sunday, before warm advection begins to bring
a chance of precipitation into the area again on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An embedded upper level disturbance will rotate east across the
southern Great Lakes overnight. As this occurs, a weak frontal
boundary will slip southeast across the terminals this evening
into early morning. There will be a chance of showers, perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm along and ahead of this boundary.
Clouds will decrease in coverage behind frontal passage.

For Tuesday, under northwest flow aloft, SCT cumulus will form
during the heating of the day. Surface high pressure will build
east toward the Ohio Valley through the day, moving across the
Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Diurnal cumulus will gradually
dissipate after 00Z, leaving mainly clear skies for the
overnight period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman