Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291949 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE TORNADO WATCH 369. THE WATCH IS CURRENTLY OUT UNTIL 9 PM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VERY WEAK PVA. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/ LOW WAS ANALYZED IN FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW RIGHT AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO KENTUCKY. ALONG THE WARM FRONT SFC TO 1 KM SRH WAS AROUND 200 M2/S2. GIVEN THESE SHEAR VALUES TORNADO WATCH 369 HAS BEEN ISSUED. STORMS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS STARTED TO PULL NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR CAPE VALUES HAVE RAPIDLY STARTED TO RISE. CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. LATER THIS EVENING THE WEAK LOW WILL PULL EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING A SLOW TEMPORARY END TO RAIN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE SCATTERED. RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY WILL COME FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY TUESDAY IS ALSO FORECASTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY. NAM IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING VALUES AROUND 600 J/KG. SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO AGAIN DIMINISH AS THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN START TO LOOSE STEAM AND STALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH TRYING TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST. BEHIND THE FRONT LOWER PWAT AIR WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL START TO POOL. GFS IS SHOWING PWATS LESS THAN 1.00" BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.00" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAIN. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES WITH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. CEILINGS IN THE IFR RANGE WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK. MVFR WILL CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH AT CVG LUK AND ILN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE AS PREVALENT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS SO FAR BEEN HAMPERED BY COOLER THAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER INSTABILITY. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT SIGNS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REQUIRE AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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