Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281743 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... With warm and moist air in place, showers and thunderstorms will be possible today ahead of a cold front. Drier conditions are expected behind the front overnight, with occasional slight chances of precipitation through the first half of the week, and temperatures close to normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Some lower level SC has been redeveloping across much of the area this morning. This should lift back up into a cu field as we progress into the afternoon and start to destabilize. However, the better instabilities for later this afternoon are now forecast to be across northern Ohio, down into portions of central Ohio. As a result, think coverage through this afternoon may be a bit more limited across much of our area so will trim back pops a bit. Expect a better chance of pcpn to move into our northwest late this afternoon ahead of the approaching mid level short wave and trough axis. This pcpn should then spread across our area through the early evening hours, especially across our north. Shear profiles through most of the day are again fairly marginal until increasing from the west late in the day into this evening with the short wave energy. Expect this to be the best chance for any severe storms, with the best chance across our northwest where the increasing shear should have the best chance of coinciding with the better instabilities. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Behind the surface trough, precipitation is expected to come to an end in the 00Z-09Z time frame, with drying conditions leading to clearing skies by Monday morning. With fast flow aloft to the south of an upper low in the northern Great Lakes, another surface trough will be moving into the ILN CWA late in the day. With a drier air mass in place, most of the precipitation will probably hold off until Monday evening. While the Sunday evening trough/front will do little to change temperatures over the region, with max temps Monday expected to be very similar to Sunday -- mid 70s to near 80. However, the big difference will be in the dewpoint temperatures -- a drop from the mid 60s to the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The immediate long term period, Monday night through Wednesday, will feature a closed upper level over Ontario, which will slowly rotate east/northeast through this period. Embedded disturbances rotating around this low, complimented by weak cold fronts/trof axes, will keep a low threat for showers and thunderstorms going, mainly during the peak heating of the day. High temperatures should remain in the 70s with the coolest day occurring on Wednesday. The upper level closed low will elongate and finally shift more to the northeast such that a ridge of high pressure will build southeast into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. After a cool start in the lower 50s, highs should rebound into the mid and upper 70s. The remainder of the extended becomes a bit muddled as we head into next weekend. General model consensus is to bring another piece of upper level energy in the form of a closed low southeast into south central Canada by Friday and then slowly push it east across southeast Canada/northern Great Lakes through the weekend. Return moist flow around the departing high and between a slow moving frontal boundary from the north will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals for early June. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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We are still seeing some lingering patches of MVFR cigs across the area but these should continue to lift up into a lower VFR cu field over the next hour or so. Instability will continue to increase through this afternoon with the highest values across our north. This should lead to scattered thunderstorms developing through late afternoon, continuing into this evening. The best chance for storms will be at KDAY, with decreasing chances to the south and east. Will therefore allow for a tempo -tsra at KDAY and then just cover the threat with a VCTS elsewhere. Pcpn will taper off through late evening as we lose the instability and a cold front moves through. A drier airmass will move into the area behind the front with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL

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