Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 212117 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 517 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE HWO. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL

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