Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250829 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 429 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Wednesday morning. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Numerous locations have fallen into the mid 30s this morning, so expect frost development with the clear skies and light winds. Will continue the advisory through its 9 AM expiration. For the rest of today, cirrus is expected to increase across the fa today as H5 ridge out over the plains breaks down due to a s/w rounding the top. Easterly winds will help keep temperatures in the mid 50s across the northern counties, ranging up to the lower 60s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tonight, mid and high clouds will continue to linger across the region. The ECMWF develops some light showers and north western sections tonight as it increases isentropic lift across a developing warm front. It is the outlier, so will keep the fa dry. With some cloud cover tonight, temperatures should be a little warmer, only dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. On Wednesday, the H5 s/w will swing from the plain into the Ohio Valley. It will push a compact low pressure center eastward with it. The fa will be warm sectored and should be dry on Wednesday. There will be a large variance in highs across the region. Temperatures across the extreme nrn counties of West Central and Central Ohio will only reach the mid 50s, but was you head south, temperatures will warm quickly. Highs in nrn KY will be around 70. Pcpn with the low will finally reach the area Wednesday night. Latest run of the models is showing very limited instability, so have backed off on the mention of thunder. Also, it appears that the models are showing a weakening trend with the pcpn as it works e Wednesday night. Kept likely pops across the north, but tightened up the gradient and lower PoPs across the srn counties to 20 to 30 percent. This system is looking more progressive, so tighten up the backedge of the pcpn, moving it e of the region by 18Z Thursday. Temperatures will recover some, reaching the mid 50s in the north and the lower 60s in the south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs On Friday to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Model solns showing differences in strength and timing with the next system moving through the Great Lakes next weekend. Warm air advection pattern develops with best moisture and lift north of ILN/s FA. Have limited pop to slight chance north and east with low chance far northeast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures to warm some with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. Next quick moving wave to track through the Great Lakes Sunday. Have limited any mention of precipitation to a slight chance of a shower north Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures for next Monday. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure will settle into the area today, providing quiet weather through the TAF period. SKC and VFR VSBYs are anticipated through the overnight period at all sites except KLUK where fog may briefly lead to MVFR/IFR VSBYs through 12z. Past 12z, mid-level clouds will build into the area from the west during the day. Light to calm winds are expected through mid-morning. As the sfc ridge axis shifts east of the area after 00z Wednesday, light winds will turn more easterly. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 043>046-052-054>056-064-065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.