Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261805 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HRRR AND RAP RUNS BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND RELIABLE IN THIS REGARD TODAY...THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A COUPLE OF BANDS/CLUSTERS AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 30 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. MAXIMUM IN DCAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST OUT AHEAD OF ACTIVITY. STILL MONITORING FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A FEW SEVERE CELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AFTER THIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. BUT IF THIS DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WITH LESS COVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT PROGRESSES AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING AND THUS FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF) COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY (TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN THE TAFS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...

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