Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230609 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 109 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking east through the southern U.S. will be off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. High pressure and an upper level ridge will be in place for the Ohio Valley from then through about Wednesday morning, when low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Axis of weak moisture convergence remains across the southern part of the forecast area. Have seen off and on light showers in this zone and will likely continue to see this into the overnight hours. But late tonight expect an increase in shower coverage, especially across the southern and eastern counties as energy rotating around low pressure to the south swings into the region. Meanwhile fog in northwest Ohio should develop a bit further south into areas north/northwest of Dayton. There could end up being some dense patches in the fog later tonight. Forecast lows look reasonable. Just bumped up winds a bit with fairly tight gradient to remain through the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Rain will be over eastern CWA and exit to the east through the day. Low stratus over northwestern CWA - if it develops - will be hard pressed to move anywhere. Daytime highs will be nearly steady and only see a 2-3 degree increase from overnight lows. Overnight temperatures will not see large falls as the cold air will be slow to offset the high humidity air but still fall into the lower 40s. High pressure ridge crosses Tuesday and return southerly flow sets up in the west by evening and then by later overnight in the east. This return flow will inhibit lows from dropping off much from Monday night`s values - again within a few degrees of 40. As the low moves towards Lake Michigan by daybreak Wednesday, a slight chance of a pre-frontal shower is possible in the far northwest late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A significant pattern change will take place during the period as the well above normal temperatures are replaced by a more seasonal pattern. The period begins with a sfc low located mid MS valley. Models are showing a little spread on the exact location. Trailing south from the low is a cdfnt. As the low lifts ne through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, the front will push across the fa, so expect some scattered showers to affect the region. Temperatures will still be well above normal with highs ranging from around 50 in West Central Ohio to the upper 50s in the the Lower Scioto Valley and NE KY. Colder air will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but thicknesses should be warm enough that any scattered pcpn will fall as rain. By Thursday afternoon the thicknesses will start to be cold enuf for snow to mix in as an ern U.S. upper trof takes hold. Scattered lake effect snow showers will affect the region Thursday night into thru the weekend as upper level disturbances drop across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An upper level low pressure system currently centered over northern Georgia will lift northeast to off the Mid Atlantic Coast today through tonight. Moisture rotating around the low will continue to spill north and westward across our area through today before beginning to shift off to the east with the low tonight. Cigs are quite variable across the region early this morning ranging from low IFR across our far northwest to mid and high level cloudiness across central portions of our area and then a lower VFR stratocumulus deck across our southeast. Will therefore start out all of the TAF sites as VFR for the first several hours of the period, and then slowly lower cigs into MVFR and then IFR as the low levels moisten up later this morning. Pcpn is also somewhat spotty across the area with the best coverage southeast of the TAF sites across far southeast Ohio and Eastern Kentucky. Will therefore start off with primarily VCSH type coverage and then allow for some prevailing MVFR showers to fill in as we head toward daybreak. Periods of showers will then persist through much of the morning before the better chance starts to shift back off to the east through this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.