Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 081804 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 204 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLIDE TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE WILL CROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DECAYING MCS IS PROGRESSING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAIRLY FAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANTS AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING UPSTREAM...WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE NICELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ML CAPES ARE PROGGED INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS...LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR A LULL IN PCPN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CURRENT REMNANTS. WILL THEN BUMP POPS BACK UP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. IF WE ARE ABLE TO SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WILL EXHIBIT A RAPID REDUCTION IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. BY 6Z...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER...AND CONTINUE TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS. FLOW NEVER TURNS WESTERLY UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NICELY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH LONG WAVE TROF SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AT MID WEEK. INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO ILN/S FA IN THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER IN AFTN WITH SECONDARY FRONT NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT INDICATION THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF AND EMBEDDED WEAK S/W...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLD POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY AND OVERALL DRIER MODEL SOLN TRENDS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ECMWF SOLN DEVELOPING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN DUE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. GFS SOLN IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FASTER MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM NW RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE NEXT MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN A LTL BELOW NORMAL NEXT MONDAY WITH PCPN AND FROPA. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OHIO AND IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION/CLOUDS...BUT WE HAVE BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MLCAPES NOW INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. IF WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...THESE WILL LIKELY FILL IN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HANG ON TO JUST A VCTS MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE CONDITIONALITY OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS HANGING ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK FAIRLY DIURNAL AT THIS POINT SO WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR BR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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