Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270149 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 949 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MONDAY WHEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE NRN CWFA THIS EVENING WILL SHOW ONLY A LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...IT MAY END UP LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN TERMS OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BY MONDAY MORNING. OF MORE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL TRYING TO CAPTURE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...MOVING IT SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND TRAJECTORY...FEEL THE NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN TO LIKELY...MAINLY FOR THE DAYTON METRO AND POINTS TOWARD THE SW CWFA (TRI-STATE) REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AS THE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR SE CWFA. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL COME INTO PLAY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 MAY EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS WORKING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. ANTICIPATE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE FAR S-SW CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 80S SOUTH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STILL LOCATED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...IT MAY EVEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY MONDAY IN TERMS OF CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TAF SITES. HAVE USED A VCSH DESCRIPTOR FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIST/FOG GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY LATE. ON MONDAY...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF GOOD SCOURING. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW POP UP SHOWER/STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD FAVOR A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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