Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250016 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 816 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will begin to approach the area overnight and move through the region on Monday. Hot and humid conditions will be present in advance of this feature with thunderstorms possible at times. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Temperatures will continue to drop off this evening therefore have cancelled portions of the excessive heat warning and heat advisory. Kept the portion that remains in effect through Monday evening. Only a couple isolated showers remain across the area at this time. Additional thunderstorms will approach the region overnight however this activity will be on a weakening trend as it approaches. Due to this have limited precipitation chances to the slight chance category across most of the area and chance category across the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Heat and humidity will continue for Monday. Heat index values will be near 100 again with a better chance for this across southern portions of the region. Continued the heat advisory and excessive heat warning across southern portions of the region for Monday. A cold front will move through on Monday. There has been some variability with how much convection will develop with this feature, however given airmass in place believe that preciptiation chances will be likely across the southern portions of the forecast area by late in the afternoon and early evening hours. A few of these storms may reach severe limits with damaging winds the primary threat. Boundary will hold up across southern portions of the area and therefore linger preciptiation chances across the far south through Tuesday night. With CAA across the northern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday believe cu will develop during the day. Even with the CAA expect high temperatures on Tuesday to be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Stationary frontal boundary looks to be positioned along or just south of the Ohio River Wednesday. Boundary will divide a very moist air mass to the south from a relatively drier air mass to the north. Will continue with chance pops for thunderstorms close to and south of the front on Wednesday. Boundary will lift north as a warm front late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow precipitable water values to increase northward, placing the CWA back in a very moist environment for Thursday. Models show a shortwave approaching late Thursday or Thursday night. Timing is still somewhat in question, but there is decent consensus on the track which will bring it across the Ohio Valley. Therefore, begin to increase pops for Thursday afternoon and will continue chance pops into Thursday night for possible influence from shortwave. Additional shortwaves may affect the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. Details associated with the shortwaves (such as track/timing/strength) are in question and will need to be resolved with time. But the potential for shortwaves combined with a warm moist air mass means that chance pops for convection will continue through at least Saturday. Eventually, a cold front may move through and this could occur late Saturday into Sunday but confidence is low on the timing of the frontal passage. Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above average values through the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Isolated/scattered showers and storms which threatened DAY/ILN/LCK/CMH through early evening have all dissipated leaving just some sct-bkn high clouds. Attention turns to sct-bkn band of storms near Chicago which will move southeast toward the TAF sites overnight...but will likely break up and diminish as it approaches after about 05Z. Best chance of a shower with decaying cluster will be at KDAY where a VCSH was added for a few hours overnight. Otherwise...expect the bulk of this activity to remain west of the area while being of impact. So the overnight will feature sct-bkn mid/high cloud as the cloud debris from this complex shifts downstream over the area. Some light MVFR fog was maintained in the forecast for LCK/LUK/ILN. On Monday...cold front will be settling through the area at peak heating and thus expect storm development to be a little more robust and higher coverage. Still not enough confidence on timing/location though to go more than VCTS so that was maintained in the forecast. Flow will be veering from swly to wly and eventually nwly across the sites as the front passes. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and again Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ073-074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...Binau

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