Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211809 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 109 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will be possible today into tonight along a weak cold front. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather on Wednesday. A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the weather picture Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Models continue to show weakening convergence along the approaching cold front today. However, there should still be enough moisture and lift for some isolated showers this afternoon, with the best chance in Nrn KY which is closer to the advance H5 low. Despite increasing cloud cover, we should be able to mix the warm air aloft down to push temperatures into the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As the front weakens tonight while entering the area, most locations should be free from measurable precip. However, a shot of short wave energy and moisture developing around an upper low to the south may bring showers mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Kept PoPs below likely due to model inconsistencies. Following the dying cold front, weak surface high pressure and a broad ridge aloft are expected to prevent measurable precip from developing on Wednesday. Decreasing cloud cover should result in sunshine by Wednesday afternoon. Minimal temperature advection associated with the front will allow highs to stay well above normal Wednesday, in the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Westerly mid level flow with shortwave passing through the Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday. This will allow a surface front to drop down into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Meanwhile vigorous jet energy will carve out a trough over the western US. Shortwave pivoting northeast will induce a deepening surface low that ejects from the central plains on Thursday into the Great Lakes Friday. Aforementioned surface front lifts north as a warm front with a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly the northern counties Thursday night. Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Friday evening. MUCAPES values of 500 to 750 j/kg are fcst Friday afternoon into Friday evening ahead of this surface front. Numerical models have been showing good continuity from run to run. Sherbs3 shows a a good signal for high shear low cape strong squall line potential with the possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO product. In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers will be possible Saturday due to the passage of the mid level trof. These showers may transition or mix with a few snow showers prior to ending Saturday night. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures. In the quick zonal flow a front to drop south through the area providing a slight chance of a rain or snow shower Sunday night into early Monday. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface wave of low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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H5 split flow pattern across the eastern U.S. will bring a cdfnt into the region tonight. Previous runs of the models had been forecasting some dying showers across nrn OH, with a more organized area of showers developing over srn/OH/nrn KY, associated with moisture from a closed H5 low in the deep south. Consensus of the 12Z models backed off on the nrn pcpn area and are now focusing more on the srn pcpn. So dried out KDAY, and added a tempo SHRA to KCVG/KLUK beginning around 21Z and lasting to around 00Z. By then, the area of pcpn should be pivoting to to e and will brush KILN and then KCMH/KLCK later in the night. With weak low level flow and a moist boundary layer clouds will lower overnight. All tafs sites should drop to IFR cigs between 06-12Z. MVFR fog is also expected. The fog and low cigs will linger after 12Z Wednesday. Vsbys should recover to VFR by 15Z, but IFR/MVFR will linger into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Wednesday night. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Sites CLIMATE...

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