Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271745 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CDFNT ACROSS NRN OHIO/NRN INDIANA ATTM IS FCST TO SAG SWD INTO THE REGION. CONVECTION THAT POPPED UP AROUND SUNRISE HAS BEEN FALLING ABOUT AS IT CHANGES FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE BASED. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE FNT PUSHES INTO THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN FAVOR OF THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE HIT. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDED THE PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND. FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY. ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST FAVORED. SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CDFNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS POPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KILN UP TOWARD KRZT. FEEL THAT THE CHC OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SO DRIED OUT THE TAFS. CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY. SOME OF THIS CU SHOULD GO BROKEN AND MAY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. AROUND SUNSET THE SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AFT 06Z...WITH KLUK GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BKN CI WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TAFS. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES

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