Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200606 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 206 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms have diminished with loss of daytime heating, and with the front now near the Ohio River. Have reduced pops to chance or lower for the rest of tonight, keeping in mind that some redevelopment will be possible in this humid airmass, especially around the stalled front. Patchy fog is expected where clearing occurs. Overnight lows will vary notably with respect to frontal position, ranging from 50 far north, up to the mid 60s south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Saturday morning the stalled front will sag southwards behind the shortwave with fog possible across and ahead of the boundary. Saturday morning the stalled front will begin to lift north as a warm front. As this happens scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Saturday afternoon the chance of thunderstorms will continue as weak shortwave moves in from the southwest. Saturday night into Sunday morning the upper level low will rotate northeast towards Minnesota and take on a negative tilt. As this happens strong upper level divergence from the RRQ and upper level diffluence from splitting flow will move into the region. PWATs at this time are also forecasted to rise to around 1.80". Given the strong signals above have kept categorical PoPs. Instability will be decreasing at the time but shear values will be increasing. Thanks to the increasing shear values SPC has put the area in a slight risk for Day 2. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... It appears that the aforementioned cold front will move slowly east through our region Sunday into Sunday night. The slow movement is in part due to the mid level ridge to our east. In either case, categorical PoPs for showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end behind frontal passage which should move out of our eastern zones by early Monday morning. Temperatures will be held down some Sunday due to clouds and pcpn with cooler air moving in Sunday night behind the front. Surface high pressure will build into our region on Monday, giving a period of dry but cooler weather. The upper level pattern will become highly amplified during the upcoming week which will eventually lead to a mean mid level trough setting up residence across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There continues to be some timing issues with the next cold front to push through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A chance of showers will continue during this period, with thunder possible during the peak heating of Tuesday into Tuesday evening. By Thursday, mid level trough will be slow to progress to the east which may keep a few lingering showers. Another quick moving system in the northwest flow aloft may bring another threat for showers Thursday night into Friday. Below normal temperatures can be expected by mid to late week with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then perhaps getting back into the 70s on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low stratus deck moving south will envelop the remaining TAF sites early this morning with cigs under 1000` across the board. Some few sites such as KILN will see fog develop with the low stratus and KCVG may see their tower vsby drop as the cloud deck lowers to that level. Most of the TAF sites will be at an unusual unrestricted visibility with the low ceilings due to the drier northeast winds. The low stratus will lift as daybreak approaches, and vsbys will rapidly improve as well. The weak front that is south of the CWA in central KY will head north as a warm front today. Models are limiting any shower activity this morning so latest forecast has removed them, but confidence remains low and showers could still be present - just not as widespread. Warm sector will be over the region this afternoon and shower and thunderstorm activity will initiate. Towards the end of the TAF period a line of thunderstorms will be approaching from the west as a potent upper level low tracks into Minnesota with a surface low near Lake Superior. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Franks

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