Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272339 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN BECOMING MORE CELLULAR LOOKING THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...ML CAPES WILL PUSH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ROTATING UP ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LINGERING VORT MAXES AND PRODUCE NOISY QPF FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A RESULT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS IFR AT LUK AND ILN...WITH MVFR FORECAST AT OTHER SITES. BR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY LEAVING VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO CUMULUS THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT...AND CIRRUS INVADING FROM THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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