Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 232133 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 433 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING STRONG WINDS...SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST TO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW...SHOWERS WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE A CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REQUIRE CATEGORICAL POPS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD WITH LOWS AROUND 50.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVELING NORTH FROM KENTUCKY TO THE INDIANA- OHIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...STRONGER GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN WITH SHOWERS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BRISK WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST LEAVING A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE. ONCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND CHANGE RESIDUAL PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY LEAVE A DUSTING BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING IN A COOL WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH RESPECT TO THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE MANY VARIABLES INVOLVED. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS AROUND 60 ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD KEEP READINGS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE FORECAST IN THE SEASONABLE AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY WILL PERMIT WARM AIR TO FUNNEL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BY SATURDAY EVENING IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. GFS PUSHES AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH TO THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN LINGER THE FRONT NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR IN NW CWA. THEY ALSO KEEP PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS IN DIRECT OPPOSITION TO GFS. OTHER MODELLERS SEEM TO JUST BLEND OPPOSING SOLUTIONS TO COME TO MIDDLE GROUND. THIS METHOD JUST DOES NOT WORK AS A VIABLE WAY TO EVOLVE A LONGER RANGE FORECAST. TRIED TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT KNOW THAT THE LONG RANGE WAS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY. FOR AS OFF AS THE SURFACE FIELDS ARE IN THE MODELS...H5 AND LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND SW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EURO DEEPENS THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST FOR THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND HELP USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY CMH/LCK REMAINING IN MVFR /THIS DUE TO SELY FLOW MAINTAINING A LITTLE DRIER FEED IN CNTL OH/. MOIST SOUTHERLY FEED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER MOST TAF SITES BUT MAY EDGE UPWARD TOWARD MVFR AT SOME POINT. PATCHES OF -SHRA/DZ WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VSBYS IN MIST/BR BUT ANY RAIN INTENSITIES WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LATE AFTN/EVENING...A RENEWED SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL CARRY NORTHWARD OVER THE SITES WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD KEEP IFR CIGS IN AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH DAYTON MAY REMAIN LIFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CMH/LCK REMAIN THE BEST CHANCES OF STAYING MVFR WITH TRAJECTORIES OUT OF DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST/EASTERN OHIO. ON/OFF SHOWERS AT THE SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CONTINUING LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOUISVILLE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...A NOTED INCREASED WINDS WILL BE SEEN...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEERING TO SOUTH AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE DAY/LUK/CVG SITES AROUND NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30KTS...AND COULD VERY WELL BE 40+ KTS. WILL HOLD ON THOSE STRONGER GUSTS FOR RIGHT NOW DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ060-061- 070>072-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...BINAU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.