Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171154 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 654 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will affect the area today. Drier weather is forecast Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Another low pressure system will bring showers back into the region late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1005 mb low pressure will travel across southern Michigan to Ontario, dragging a cold front across the ILN area. Widespread showers that have developed in the moist ascent ahead of the front will diminish in coverage by late morning as somewhat drier air circulates around the low. Kept a slight chance for thunder in a regime of marginal elevated instability. Rainfall amounts around a half an inch will be possible before the showers dwindle. After a mild start with readings in the 50s ahead of the front, cooler temperatures will start to filter in on a west wind this afternoon. Breezy conditions are indicated in the tight pressure gradient surrounding the front, with gusts over 20 mph expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will be moving into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight while low pressure moves slowly through southeast Canada. At the same time, low pressure in the upper atmosphere will travel from southern Lake Michigan to northwest Ohio, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Dry conditions will persist into Thursday when the high is forecast to move to the Appalachians. The next area of low pressure will be arriving from the southwest later on Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers to southern locations by Thursday evening. Temperatures will remain above normal. Highs Wednesday will be reduced into the 40s by cold advection. A rebound to near 50 will occur Thursday due to warm advection in advance of the next low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot rule out a bit of thunder as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level shortwave and associated sfc low to track northeast across the Great Lakes today. This will allow southward trailing cold front to sweep east across all TAF sites from midday through early this afternoon. Expect mainly MVFR CIGS through the morning. Initial wave of showers associated with low level jet and warm front moving through central Ohio. After this wave moves through pcpn chances diminish with the best threat in a limited period with the frontal passage. Due to marginal elevated instability a rumble of thunder is not out of the question but due to limited coverage have omitted mention from the fcst. Due to low level jet, low level wind shear will also be possible early this morning but this appears marginal at best for a few hours early, so have left out the mention of LLWS. Expect MVFR CIGS to persist into the afternoon with CIGS dropping to IFR overnight. In the wake of the front, winds will veer to the west and gust up to 22 kts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.