Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242125 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES. HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MVFR AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...NOVAK

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