Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 240558
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and
Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the
northern Great Lakes region. As it does, a series of upper level
disturbances will initiate showers and thunderstorms at times
through the end of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure will remain over the region and settle over southeastern
Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. The fair wx Cu has dissipated and light
or calm winds are expected for the overnight period. With clear
skies, temperatures will drop into the lower 50s area-wide.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high slowly moves east towards West Virginia Tuesday
evening with a generally light southerly flow in the Ohio Valley
found during this time. A mean upper level ridge is in place and a
shortwave is progged to muscle through it overnight Tuesday. An
increasing threat of showers will occur later overnight and into
Wednesday, when added daytime heating would help deeper convection
and thunderstorm development. Southerly flow over the region
beyond tuesday will be the main surface feature for this portion
of the forecast.
Models are showing a larger than usual variance in how they are
depicting the rain on tuesday night onward. European has an
initial shot of showers and decrease the threat during the day
Wednesday. NAM and SREF are consistent with earlier forecasts and
a swath of rain hitting northwest cwa starting in the predawn
hours and continuing into the overnight. GFS and European models
are not nearly as copious with the rainfall or its areal extent.
Tried to limit the showers and thunderstorms to the chance
category and could see more scattered activity beyond late Tuesday
night. Attm, it looks like the better chance for the H5 shortwave
to initiate thunderstorm activity occurs overnight Wednesday.
Models still give a wide range of solutions so confidence in the
timing/placement of these showers is quite low.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended period begins with a broad ridge over the ern U.S. The fa
finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper
Great Lakes. Weak vort maxes in the increasing low level moisture
will push dewpoints into the mid 60s on Thursday. Scattered
convection will be possible as daytime heating creates summer like
instability over the region. Bumped highs up a few degrees to the
lower to mid 80s for Thursday.
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions will continue for most terminals through the TAF
period with surface high pressure anchored over the region. The
only exception will be KLUK through sunrise...as clear skies,
calm winds, and some low-level moisture are resulting in shallow
BR there. Expect temporary reductions in visibility (down to 1/4
mile) to continue there through sunrise.
A bit of patchy fair weather cu will be possible during the day
on Tuesday, but otherwise SKC until cirrus gradually spreads in
from the west later in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will
remain below 10 knots through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
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