Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280604 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO NRN MN BY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH OHIO VALLEY IN WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS NRN OHIO AT NOSE OF 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ILN/S FA WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. IN REGION OF WAA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT BUMPING UP CLOUD COVER AND WITH SW WINDS STAYING UP HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. VERY MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. FOLLOWING LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLN TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PRECIP SLIGHTLY...ONLY ALLOWING LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO FAR NW BY DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURG THE MORNING AND SPREADING EAST ACRS ILN/S FA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS NOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY GIVES THE STORMS SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO WORK WITH. BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE REGION EAST OF ROUTE 23 HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. STORMS ARE PROGGED TO REACH A PITTSBURGH...PORTSMOUTH...LEXINGTON LINE BY EVENING AND CONTINUE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT AND WEDNESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. A CHANCE FOR FROST AND SOME FREEZING CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS YET WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 36 OR 37. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY PERMIT LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING. IF CLOUD COVER INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS...BUT TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. BELIEVE NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL NOT BE MET (RESULTING IN +20 KT/-20 KT GAIN OR LOSS OF AIRSPEED) FOR VARIOUS REASONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SUSTAINED WIND...LOCAL GUSTINESS...AT THE SURFACE TO INDICATE SOME MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEED INCREASE IS GRADUAL ENOUGH...AND THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE LLWS. THUS... ANY TURBULENCE WILL MOST LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN

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