Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262338 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 738 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TRYING TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR LOOKING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY SOLID ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SPOTTY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN AT SOME OF THE OBS SITES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850-700 MB MOISTURE WORKING DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WILL HANG ON TO A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT THEY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE THEY SHOULD BE LAST TO SCATTER OUT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO A WARM UP AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS MODELS TRY TO PIN DOWN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ERIKA AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS A RESULT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE 60S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT A BETTER CHANCE WILL COME FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WEATHER MAP FEATURES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS THAT HAVE PERSISTED UNDER A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS ARE ERODING AT CVG LUK AND ILN. MODELS INDICATE THAT BKN CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AT DAY CMH AND LCK. ALL SITES MAY SEE BKN CEILINGS FORM AGAIN AFTER 12Z. CVG SHOULD HAVE CLEARING SKIES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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