Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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858 FXUS61 KILN 250304 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1104 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled pattern will be present across the region through the week. An area of low pressure will meander across the region through Thursday. Multiple systems will then work across the area Friday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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An active night across the forecast area as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms produced flooding across the watch area. This is all thanks to a surface low that is currently located near KDAY/ KCVG. The surface low is forecasted to slowly push east this morning with more development expected across the western and southwestern zones. For this reason have continued the flash flood watch through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon more showers and isolated convection is expected to develop across the central areas as a weak front pushes through (weak instability shown both on the NAM and GFS). Prev Discussion-> An area of low pressure will move into the region this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will rotate around this feature. Precipitation may be heavy at times. With low LCLs cannot rule out some tornado potential through the early evening hours. Will continue to mention the severe threat in the HWO and added additional flash flood risk wording across western portions of the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Thursday as an area of low pressure meanders across the region. With the cloud cover associated with the low, temperatures will struggle to rise and are only expected to make it into the middle 60s. As the low moves off out of the area precipitation chances will taper off Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level ridging will push east across the region through the day on Friday leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. As the ridge pushes east, a developing southwesterly flow pattern will allow for occasional mid level short waves to cross the area through the weekend. This will result in a chance of showers an thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with highs both days in the upper 70s. An upper level low will slowly drop down across the northern Great Lakes through early next week. As it does, some weak energy will rotate around it, bringing some lower chances of precipitation through the rest of the long term period. Temperatures will also cool off a bit with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An area of low pressure will continue to pull north towards KCVG/ KDAY this evening with widespread MVFR cigs expected. SREF probabilities also continue to hint at IFR possible by Thursday morning which looks likely across the KILN/ KDAY/ KCVG/ KLUK TAFs. Thursday afternoon the upper level low and surface low will pull east of the area with the chance of rain remaining as low level lapse rates and moisture remain supportive. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Thursday with MVFR visibilities possible. MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ042-060-070- 077. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ089>096. IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.