Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270828 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 428 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will provide the focus for shower and thunderstorm development today. A wave of low pressure traveling along the front will bring the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The chance for thunderstorms will continue through the weekend when upper disturbances are forecast to interact with a persistently moist and unstable airmass.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface analysis features a slow moving frontal boundary near the Ohio River. With dew points around 70 and winds light, patchy fog has developed and will persist for a few hours until the rising sun burns it off. A couple of showers are lingering in the southeast early this morning near the boundary. Expect additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop today, mainly over southern locations close to the boundary where convergence and instability will coincide. Severe weather threat will limited in an environment containing moderate CAPE but low wind shear. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A broad upper trough will push into the Central CONUS on Thursday and Friday. Short wave energy rounding the base of the trough will develop a weak surface low that will ripple along the stalled boundary located over Kentucky. The low will provide enhanced lift as it works gradually eastward, and showers and thunderstorms are likely to form. The best chance for convective activity on Thursday will be across the southern half of the FA closer to the boundary. Southeastern locations may see the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms on Friday when the weak low will be departing to the east. Heavy rainfall may result due to the slow progression of the system in a moist airmass containing from 1.5 to 2+ inches precipitable water. Storms may not be very well organized due to generally weak wind shear, and model soundings that are showing a fairly saturated environment that should limit severe thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are forecast to slip slightly below normal into the lower 80s in response to cloud cover and and precip.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Saturday through Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States. There still remains timing differences on when the high will build and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs down.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface frontal boundary has stalled out e-w parallel to the upper level flow across northern KY. This front will remain quasi- stationary before returning as a warm front Thursday. Abundant low level moisture is present along and just north of this frontal boundary. A few isold showers will remain possible overnight but coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the fcst. Primary concern during the early morning hours will be the development of fog in this moisture rich environment. At southern sites of KCVG and KLUK where rain was observed in the past 24 hours and winds are light expect IFR VSBY/CIG restrictions in fog. Expect MVFR VSBYs for KILN with the potential for IFR restrictions. Expect fog to improve shortly after sunrise Wednesday. The weak stalled sfc boundary will be the focus for additional diurnally driven thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. Have a mention of VCTS at KCVG and KLUK durg the afternoon being closer to the frontal boundary. Winds will remain light and variable for all terminals for Wednesday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Thursday and possible again Friday and Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...AR

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