Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 221530
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1030 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017
Mild temperatures are expected once again today as rain showers
spread slowly north into the region through this afternoon.
Periods of rain will continue tonight into Monday as an upper
level low pressure system moves across the southeastern United
States. A drier but cooler airmass will settle into the region for
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain shower activity will push up from the south later this
afternoon into this evening. In addition another area of showers
with a slight chance of thunder will be possible across
northwestern portions of the forecast area late in the day.
Temperatures have already reached into the 50s across most
locations and expect temperatures to continue to rise into the
60s today. Records for today appear to be safe as they are in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level low will rotate northeastward tonight and then
slowly ride up across the mid Atlantic States Monday into Tuesday.
As the low begins to pivot more to the northeast, several bands of
energy rotating around the low will help spread rain showers back
north/west across our area tonight into Monday. The models have
backed off some on the QPF amounts, with the axis of better QPF
mainly remaining just east of our fa. Nonetheless, will have
categorical pops across our east tonight into Monday, tapering
back to likely across our western areas. Precipitation should
then gradually taper off from the west Monday night as the low
lifts off to the northeast and mid level ridging builds in across
our area Monday night into Tuesday. A cooler airmass will filter
into the region for the start of the work week. Highs on Monday
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Tuesday mainly
in the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A significant change in the overall mean flow will occur during the
coming week, with ridging building into the western United States
and troughing in the east. This will signal a return to more normal
winter like temperatures late in the week along with the chance for
periodic light snow showers and rain showers from Wednesday night
into Friday night.
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy dense fog has formed across the TAF sites this morning as
some clear skies has allowed dewpoint depressions to approach
zero. As the sun comes up this morning the patchy ground fog
should quickly burn off allowing all TAF sites to go VFR.
Currently on water vapor this morning an upper level low can be
seen rotating over north Texas with a band of PV pushing north
into Tennessee. This upper level lift will continue to move north
this afternoon and slowly weaken. High res models for the most
part are in agreement with the precipitation shield weakening as
it heads north. GFS and NAM forecast soundings also hint at this
with forecast soundings slowly saturating this afternoon into
evening. For now have covered the chance of afternoon rain with a VCSH.
Early Monday morning the upper level low will begin to slowly
pull north and east allowing a secondary band of precipitation to
move across the TAF sites. As this occurs ceilings will lower to
MVFR/ IFR with some restrictions also occurring in the heavier
bands of rain. This secondary band of precipitation appears more
certain as both GFS and NAM forecast soundings completely saturate
Monday morning with PWATs between 0.75" and 1.00". There still
is some uncertainty though on where exactly this second band of
precipitation will setup Monday morning with some high res models
showing KDAY on the fringe of the precipitation shield.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible into Monday
night. MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings
possible again Wednesday and Thursday.