Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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688 FXUS61 KILN 032047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 347 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX...SO GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL LIKELY STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROPPING...DESPITE THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE CYCLONE. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ENVELOP THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAVE STILL BEEN SOME SIGNS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WEAK RAIN/SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEAK INSTABILITY ON SOUNDINGS / LIGHT ECHOES ON SIMULATED HRRR REFLECTIVITY). A VERY LOW PERCENTAGE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY. SOME VERY LIGHT / UNMEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. A STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S (EASTERN CWA) AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S (WESTERN CWA).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BRIEFLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH ALL OF THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL PROVIDE FOR TWO DAYS OF UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 850MB (ABOUT -10C) IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL EASILY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS FOR OUTLYING LOCATIONS). ON FRIDAY...A SWITCH TO WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE ILN CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GAIN 4-8 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND COLD AIR FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. MILDER TEMPS RETURN FOR WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL WINTER REGIME FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNT ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAKER PRESENTATION FROM ECMWF. WILL TAKE A BLEND AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN AT ONSET ON MONDAY IN THE EAST PARTS OF FCST AREA BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP AS SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE THRU PERIOD. TRICKY CALL ON MONDAY BUT BELIEVE GUIDANCE RUNNING TO WARM FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IF FASTER ECMWF PLAYS OUT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COLDEST OF DAYS AND MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TAFS ARE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WRN TAFS AND SCATTERED/BROKEN CU AFFECTING CMH/LCK. WRAP AROUND CAA CLOUDS OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD REACHING THE WRN TAFS AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS THE DECK SETTLES OVER THE TAFS...DROPPING AS LOW AS 1500FT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ALSO AS THE CLOUDS COME IN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. H9 MOISTURE WILL LINGER PAST 12Z THU...KEEPING CIGS MVFR. H5 LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE SWINGING UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENUF LIFT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 18Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ADD VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...SITES

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