Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261332 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 932 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA...STRETCHING FROM BETWEEN PORT CLINTON TO LAFAYETTE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND EVENING. WIND FLOW IS VERY WEAK ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOTION...FRONTAL FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. SIMILARLY...WIND FLOW IS VERY WEAK THROUGH THE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED. THUS...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AT MOST...PEAKING OUT IN THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN BEFORE THAT. ONE PERSISTENT SHOWER (WHICH BRIEFLY HAD THUNDER) HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN COLUMBUS SUBURBS THIS MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS AT AROUND 70 DEGREES...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND A HALF...THE SLOW MOTIONS WILL MEAN THAT SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF FORCING AND SHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE) PERHAPS PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL...THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DO NOT EVEN APPEAR APPRECIABLE ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE HWO. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA ON MONDAY AND A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS A HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION SO DRIED OUT MONDAY. HIGH TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD WARMUP. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NRN PORTION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FLATTENED AS TROF MOVES THRU SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN THRU SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY IS VERY WEAK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A LITTLE SPARSE IN HITTING CINCY METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND I JUST LEFT THUNDER OUT OF CVG/LUK FOR THIS MORNINGS ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL SCARCITY LATER TODAY. SHOWERS ENTERING COLUMBUS METRO AREA COULD BE HIT AND MISS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATER TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR WILL BE RAPIDLY USHERED IN AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL MARK A DEFINITIVE END TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIKELY BE A CLEARING LINE WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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