Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200831 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift north from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region early this morning. A surface low pressure center will cross east through Michigan and a trailing cold front will spark thunderstorm activity later today and tonight. The front will pass southeast of Ohio early Friday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A strong southwest flow over the region today will bring in temperatures approaching 80 degrees, as well as dewpoints around 60 degrees. Given some breaks in the cloud cover early today, the combination of low level moisture and diurnal heating will interact with thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of the front. Add a expected favorable wind profile to this and thunderstorms may reach severe strength with damaging winds and large hail. This is particularly true in the late day and early evening northwest of the I-71 corridor and even moreso north of metropolitan Dayton. Model soundings are indicating wind gusts to 30 mph today well ahead of any thunderstorm activity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Storms will quickly race southeast in the evening ahead of the front, which will cross the I-71 corridor after midnight, marking the end to any lingering activity. Severe storms will quickly wane and are not expected to be tapping a favorable atmosphere after late evening. Temperatures will fall into the 50s behind the front, with some upper 40s found in northwestern CWA. Thunderstorms will lose any instability before daybreak, so primarily showers are forecast for the southeastern portions of the CWA by daybreak. Cloud cover never quite clears up behind the front as storms continue to fire over southern Kentucky during the day and upper level flow remains west-southwest with a trailing longwave trough still extending from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. Surface high pressure will help usher in the colder air and overnight lows Friday will drop into the 40s after daytime highs only in the 60s. The better shot of cold air will occur Saturday with highs topping out in the mid 50s as the upper trough crosses south into the region and hangs up along the Ohio Valley overnight Saturday. The showers that were over southern Kentucky on Saturday are expected to be pulled into southern and southeastern CWA on the east side of the longwave trough. Showers that develop in this area have a higher potential for prolonged moderate rainfall. Have included a chance of thunder and moderate rainfall where pops were likely and higher for Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s once again, and highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat into the lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure and dry conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday. A weak system moves through the region on Tuesday, however moisture is limited and therefore kept precipitation chances out of the forecast at this time. Dry conditions continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TAFs remain warm sectored early this morning with the bulk of the convection running north of them through nrn OH. Expect this to be the case for the remainder of the night. Wly H5 flow will bring cirrus deck back into the tafs by 09Z. The tafs will remain dry for a majority of Thursday. However sfc winds will increase later this morning as mixing gets under the way in advance of a cold front. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots will be possible during the afternoon. Focus then shifts to line of convection that is forecast to develop across the lower Ohio Valley today and move into the tafs. 00Z models are a little slower with the convection, so have delayed the storms into the tafs until after 00Z. Storms should bring a period of MVFR conditions between 00Z-06Z. For the CVG 30 hour taf, brought MVFR cigs in as fropa. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites

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