Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171100 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 700 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected today as high pressure moves slowly east. A cold front approaching from the west may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop beginning tonight and continuing through mid week. Above normal temperatures are forecast in a persistent southerly flow ahead of the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure centered over Central New York State will move east to New England today, pushed by weak winds aloft on the west flank of an upper ridge. At the same time, a weak cold front will be moving to Indiana. Kept the forecast dry since moisture and forcing associated with the front will be opposed by persistent dry air and subsidence in the circulation around the high. Clouds will begin to increase from current near clear conditions, especially in western locations closer to the cold front. Temperatures will be boosted a bit by warm advection, with highs reaching about 83. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Cold front will continue to weaken tonight through Monday as it moves into a less favorable airmass over Northwest Ohio. There still may be enough moisture and instability to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, with best precip chances confined mainly to counties northwest of Dayton. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the low 80s can be expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Shortwave moving through Southern Canada will flatten out the mid level ridge over the Great Lakes. This will allow a surface cold front to drop south into Northwest Ohio early in the week. Marginal instability and the vicinity of this boundary will lead to chance/slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over ILN/s northwest counties Monday night. Chance pops for thunderstorms Tuesday across the western counties where more favorable moisture and marginal instability is expected. Although the mid level ridge builds over the Great Lakes at mid week, a weak s/w under cuts the ridge over the Ohio Valley. This s/w combined with marginal instability will lead to the best chance of thunderstorms this week on Wednesday. Mid level ridge to build and become established over the Great Lakes later this week and into next weekend. Model solution differences exist regarding the position of this high. Can not rule out airmass type thunderstorms especially next Weekend. Have followed a soln closer to the ECMWF, keeping ILN/s FA dry with a lack of any significant forcing. Temperatures will be above normal through the long term period with highs generally in the lower and middle 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FG and BR are reducing visibilities again early in the forecast at LUK, ILN and LCK. Once FG/BR burns off by 13z, expect VFR to persist through the daylight hours as high pressure centered to the east remains nearly stationary. BR and FG are expected again late in the forecast at LUK, ILN and LCK. Clouds will gradually increase by the end of the forecast period as moisture starts to arrive ahead of a cold front to the west. Do not think precip will affect TAF sites yet since the front will be encountering dry air in place, and the bulk of frontal forcing and moisture will remain far to the west. Winds will be light, probably from the south. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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