Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272054 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 454 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... With warm and moist air over the Ohio Valley, there will be occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. After a cold front moves through the region Sunday night, drier conditions are expected for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Good instability is in place across the area this afternoon south of a stalled out boundary situated across central portions of our fa. ML capes of around 2000-2500 J/KG along and south of the Ohio River have allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop. Better shear values are generally off to our south but given the degree of instability and high dcape values, isolated severe storms will be possible across our south through early evening. Storms will also be fairly slow moving with some possible back building so localized heavy rain/isolated flash flooding will also be possible through this evening. A lot of uncertainty remains as to how exactly things will play out later tonight with an MCS moving out of the Mid Mississippi Valley. It looks like the bulk of this will slide off to our south, but the NSSL ARW, NAM and Canadian are hinting at a northern portion of this feature pivoting up into southwest portions of our fa late tonight. This will also be close to a warm front that will be lifting up across our area which may also allow for some additional showers and thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty, will just keep pops in the chance to likely category for later tonight with the highest pops across our southwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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The warm front will lift north across our area through the morning hours with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along it. As the front lifts north of our area, expect to see a lull in pcpn through early afternoon. However, as we destabilize through the afternoon, additional shower and thunderstorms development will be possible from late afternoon into Sunday night. Deep layer shear values will increase through the day on Sunday, so severe storms will be possible once again, especially across our south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak short waves and limited moisture may combine to produce a few showers on Monday. Development of showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly over eastern locations on Tuesday when a weak cold front is forecast to form along the Upper Ohio Valley. Additional showers and thunderstorms may occur Wednesday as more short wave energy rounds the base of a broad upper trough. Dry conditions are expected Thursday under high pressure. Thunderstorms chances return Friday when another batch of short wave energy is forecast to arrive on a northwest upper flow. Thunderstorms may linger Saturday and Sunday as moisture and convergence increase on the southwest flow ahead of a slow moving cold front trailing Canadian low pressure. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... We have started to see some spotty shower and thunderstorm development along and south of a stalled out boundary situated west to east across central portions of our area this afternoon. As we continue to destabilize through this afternoon, expect to see the activity become more widespread and will cover the threat with a VCTS at the southern TAF sites. This activity will be diurnally enhanced so expect a downward trend as we head into this evening. Most of the models are keeping the bulk of the main MCS later tonight off to our southwest but the NAM and a few of the higher res models are showing some additional development farther north into our area later tonight into early Sunday. Will therefore allow for some prevailing -shra and a VCTS at all the TAF sites to account for this possibility. There are still a few linger MVFR cigs around at the moment but these should continue to lift into VFR for this afternoon. Expect VFR cigs then into this evening before dropping back into MVFR later tonight into Sunday morning as pcpn moves back in. OUTLOOK...Intermittent chances of thunderstorms along with MVFR ceilings will be possible through Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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