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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 171100
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
700 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today as high pressure moves slowly east.
A cold front approaching from the west may allow a few showers
and thunderstorms to develop beginning tonight and continuing
through mid week. Above normal temperatures are forecast in a
persistent southerly flow ahead of the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure centered over Central New York State will
move east to New England today, pushed by weak winds aloft on
the west flank of an upper ridge. At the same time, a weak cold
front will be moving to Indiana. Kept the forecast dry since
moisture and forcing associated with the front will be opposed
by persistent dry air and subsidence in the circulation around
the high.

Clouds will begin to increase from current near clear
conditions, especially in western locations closer to the cold
front. Temperatures will be boosted a bit by warm advection,
with highs reaching about 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front will continue to weaken tonight through Monday as it
moves into a less favorable airmass over Northwest Ohio. There
still may be enough moisture and instability to trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms, with best precip chances confined
mainly to counties northwest of Dayton. Under partly to mostly
sunny skies, highs in the low 80s can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shortwave moving through Southern Canada will flatten out the mid
level ridge over the Great Lakes. This will allow a surface cold
front to drop south into Northwest Ohio early in the week. Marginal
instability and the vicinity of this boundary will lead to
chance/slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over ILN/s
northwest counties Monday night.

Chance pops for thunderstorms Tuesday across the western counties
where more favorable moisture and marginal instability is expected.

Although the mid level ridge builds over the Great Lakes at mid
week, a weak s/w under cuts the ridge over the Ohio Valley. This s/w
combined with marginal instability will lead to the best chance of
thunderstorms this week on Wednesday.

Mid level ridge to build and become established over the Great Lakes
later this week and into next weekend. Model solution differences
exist regarding the position of this high. Can not rule out airmass
type thunderstorms especially next Weekend. Have followed a soln
closer to the ECMWF, keeping ILN/s FA dry with a lack of any
significant forcing.

Temperatures will be above normal through the long term period with
highs generally in the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FG and BR are reducing visibilities again early in the forecast
at LUK, ILN and LCK. Once FG/BR burns off by 13z, expect VFR to
persist through the daylight hours as high pressure centered to
the east remains nearly stationary. BR and FG are expected
again late in the forecast at LUK, ILN and LCK.

Clouds will gradually increase by the end of the forecast
period as moisture starts to arrive ahead of a cold front to the
west. Do not think precip will affect TAF sites yet since the
front will be encountering dry air in place, and the bulk of
frontal forcing and moisture will remain far to the west. Winds
will be light, probably from the south.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio