Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190550 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 150 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, will track off to the southeast, allowing showers to end tonight. Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will move into the region on Sunday, bringing drier conditions, and starting a warming trend heading into the new week. Another cold front will bring a chance of rain on Monday and Monday night, with slightly cooler temperatures thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes to track southeast into the Mid Atlantic by Sunday morning. A few linger showers over central Ohio, associated with a vort lobe rotating around this low, will come to an end around midnight. Moisture trapped below an inversion will result in continued cloudy conditions through the overnight hours. Model forecast soundings keep us socked in with low clouds overnight into Sunday morning. Based on trends and latest mesoscale models, have trended temperatures slight warmer tonight. Expect lows generally in the lower 30s. Previous discussion... Vertically stacked low pressure has allowed widespread cloud cover to continue across the region this afternoon with showers moving into the area from the northwest. These showers are thanks to cooling low level temperatures allowing lapse rates to steepen. Some snow could potentially mix in but think the chance is low. Tonight the vertically stacked low will continue to pull southeast allowing cloud cover to remain. Even with the clouds thinking that low temperatures will be around freezing, or near normal for Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday afternoon the low pressure will be pulling east of the region with surface high pressure building in. As high pressure builds in the cloud cover from Sunday morning will begin to break starting in the southwest and moving northeast during the afternoon. This is supported by NAM, ECMWF, and GFS RH fields. 850 mb temperatures Sunday will also start a slow climb towards zero degrees by the evening. This will still only support highs in the mid 40s on average area wide (slightly below normal). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday, a short wave interacting with a frontal boundary and ample moisture will produce the likelihood for rain showers, with thunderstorms also possible in an environment containing a few hundred J/KG elevated CAPE. The boundary is expected to be south of the area on Tuesday, though residual showers may still affect mainly southern locations. High pressure is forecast to provide dry weather on Wednesday. Another frontal boundary is indicated for Thursday through Saturday. With the front located to the north, shower chances should remain rather low on Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur with frontal passage anticipated for Saturday. High temperatures in the relatively mild 50s are forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Readings will slip back into the 40s Wednesday under cold advection in the circulation around the high. Look for a rebound back above normal for Friday and Saturday when highs may reach the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper level low located just to our east this morning, will slowly rotate east to a position off the Atlantic seaboard by this evening. This will allow surface high pressure to our west to gradually build east into our region. Main aviation issue in the next 12 to 18 hours will be how low clouds will get this morning and how long will they linger. As the center of the surface ridge approaches from the west this morning, low level flow will turn north. This flow, combined with decent low level moisture, will keep stratus/stratocumulus clouds across the terminals. Also, with diurnal relative humidities increasing overnight, ceilings will likely drop into the IFR category for KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK. KCVG/KLUK should see ceilings drop into the 1500 and 2000 foot range by 12Z. Models are indicating that moisture between the 900 and 850 mb level (1500-3500 feet) may become trapped as the center of the surface ridge pushes into the region this afternoon. Thus, although daytime heating will allow ceilings to rise to MVFR and perhaps VFR (near KCVG/KLUK), the moisture along with heating will likely keep considerable cumulus/stratocumulus across the region into this evening. For tonight, surface ridge axis will move east of our area. Stratocumulus/cumulus should scatter out from west to east between 00Z and 06Z. Thereafter, mid and high level clouds will increase from the west ahead of the next weather system to affect our region Monday into Monday night. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times Monday into Tuesday morning. Local IFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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