Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 158 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A SHARP 500MB TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH...OVERALL MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY HIGH. THE ILN CWA MAY END UP SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SYSTEM...WITH GREATER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN LOW)...AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER MICHIGAN TO THE NORTH. THAT SAID...SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH...AND THEY MAY REACH NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. MIN TEMPS APPEAR SET TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW READINGS FROM LAST NIGHT. OUTLYING LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY DROP AS FAR AS THE UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ON SATURDAY MORNING...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO CHANGE. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT SHOW MUCH (A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW WITH SOME CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION)...THE PATTERN AT 700MB IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN THETA-E ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THIS...A DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WITH THE AIR MASS ARE NOT EXTREME...UNDER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT (MODERATING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY). RECORDS LOOK TO BE SAFE...AND THE ONLY NUMBER EVEN CLOSE TO THE FORECAST IS THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR DAYTON ON SATURDAY (60 DEGREES...WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 64). AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT ON SATURDAY MORNING...SKY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ABOVE THE INVERSION (PRECIPITABLE WATER OF THREE TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH). WITH SUN AND COLD ADVECTION...SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE 12Z CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. WILL GENERALLY TAKE A MODEL BLEND WHICH LINES UP FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A WARM UP AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW TOWARD FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CIGS JUST BELOW THE MVFR/VFR INTERFACE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD BRING SOME VFR SHOWERS TO KDAY AS IT PASSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FAIR WX CU IN THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BREAK UP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD PUSH WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LITTLE IF ANY FOG WILL BE EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...FRANKS

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