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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 272054
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
With warm and moist air over the Ohio Valley, there will be
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. After a cold front moves through the region Sunday
night, drier conditions are expected for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Good instability is in place across the area this afternoon
south of a stalled out boundary situated across central portions
of our fa. ML capes of around 2000-2500 J/KG along and south of
the Ohio River have allowed for scattered thunderstorms to
develop. Better shear values are generally off to our south but
given the degree of instability and high dcape values, isolated
severe storms will be possible across our south through early
evening. Storms will also be fairly slow moving with some
possible back building so localized heavy rain/isolated flash
flooding will also be possible through this evening.

A lot of uncertainty remains as to how exactly things will play
out later tonight with an MCS moving out of the Mid Mississippi
Valley. It looks like the bulk of this will slide off to our
south, but the NSSL ARW, NAM and Canadian are hinting at a
northern portion of this feature pivoting up into southwest
portions of our fa late tonight. This will also be close to a
warm front that will be lifting up across our area which may
also allow for some additional showers and thunderstorms. Given
the uncertainty, will just keep pops in the chance to likely
category for later tonight with the highest pops across our
southwest.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The warm front will lift north across our area through the
morning hours with some scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible along it. As the front lifts north of our area, expect
to see a lull in pcpn through early afternoon. However, as we
destabilize through the afternoon, additional shower and
thunderstorms development will be possible from late afternoon
into Sunday night. Deep layer shear values will increase
through the day on Sunday, so severe storms will be possible
once again, especially across our south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak short waves and limited moisture may combine to produce a few
showers on Monday. Development of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible mainly over eastern locations on Tuesday when a weak cold
front is forecast to form along the Upper Ohio Valley. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may occur Wednesday as more short wave
energy rounds the base of a broad upper trough. Dry conditions are
expected Thursday under high pressure. Thunderstorms chances return
Friday when another batch of short wave energy is forecast to arrive
on a northwest upper flow. Thunderstorms may linger Saturday and
Sunday as moisture and convergence increase on the southwest flow
ahead of a slow moving cold front trailing Canadian low pressure.

Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the period,
with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We have started to see some spotty shower and thunderstorm
development along and south of a stalled out boundary situated
west to east across central portions of our area this afternoon.
As we continue to destabilize through this afternoon, expect to
see the activity become more widespread and will cover the
threat with a VCTS at the southern TAF sites. This activity will
be diurnally enhanced so expect a downward trend as we head
into this evening. Most of the models are keeping the bulk of
the main MCS later tonight off to our southwest but the NAM and
a few of the higher res models are showing some additional
development farther north into our area later tonight into early
Sunday. Will therefore allow for some prevailing -shra and a
VCTS at all the TAF sites to account for this possibility.

There are still a few linger MVFR cigs around at the moment but
these should continue to lift into VFR for this afternoon.
Expect VFR cigs then into this evening before dropping back into
MVFR later tonight into Sunday morning as pcpn moves back in.

OUTLOOK...Intermittent chances of thunderstorms along with MVFR
ceilings will be possible through Monday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JGL