Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 280815 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 415 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST / SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR FAIRLY UNLIKELY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG. MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...HICKMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.