Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 190550
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
150 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017
An area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, will
track off to the southeast, allowing showers to end tonight.
Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will move into the
region on Sunday, bringing drier conditions, and starting a
warming trend heading into the new week. Another cold front will
bring a chance of rain on Monday and Monday night, with
slightly cooler temperatures thereafter.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes to track southeast
into the Mid Atlantic by Sunday morning. A few linger showers
over central Ohio, associated with a vort lobe rotating around
this low, will come to an end around midnight. Moisture trapped
below an inversion will result in continued cloudy conditions
through the overnight hours. Model forecast soundings keep us
socked in with low clouds overnight into Sunday morning. Based
on trends and latest mesoscale models, have trended temperatures
slight warmer tonight. Expect lows generally in the lower 30s.
Vertically stacked low pressure has allowed
widespread cloud cover to continue across the region this
afternoon with showers moving into the area from the northwest.
These showers are thanks to cooling low level temperatures
allowing lapse rates to steepen. Some snow could potentially mix
in but think the chance is low. Tonight the vertically stacked
low will continue to pull southeast allowing cloud cover to
remain. Even with the clouds thinking that low temperatures will
be around freezing, or near normal for Sunday morning.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday afternoon the low pressure will be pulling east of the
region with surface high pressure building in. As high pressure
builds in the cloud cover from Sunday morning will begin to
break starting in the southwest and moving northeast during the
afternoon. This is supported by NAM, ECMWF, and GFS RH fields.
850 mb temperatures Sunday will also start a slow climb towards
zero degrees by the evening. This will still only support highs
in the mid 40s on average area wide (slightly below normal).
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday, a short wave interacting with a frontal boundary and
ample moisture will produce the likelihood for rain showers, with
thunderstorms also possible in an environment containing a few
hundred J/KG elevated CAPE. The boundary is expected to be south of
the area on Tuesday, though residual showers may still affect mainly
southern locations. High pressure is forecast to provide dry weather
on Wednesday. Another frontal boundary is indicated for Thursday
through Saturday. With the front located to the north, shower
chances should remain rather low on Thursday and Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to occur with frontal passage anticipated
High temperatures in the relatively mild 50s are forecast for Monday
and Tuesday. Readings will slip back into the 40s Wednesday under
cold advection in the circulation around the high. Look for a
rebound back above normal for Friday and Saturday when highs may
reach the 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --An upper level low located just to our east this morning, will
slowly rotate east to a position off the Atlantic seaboard by
this evening. This will allow surface high pressure to our west
to gradually build east into our region.
Main aviation issue in the next 12 to 18 hours will be how low
clouds will get this morning and how long will they linger. As
the center of the surface ridge approaches from the west this
morning, low level flow will turn north. This flow, combined
with decent low level moisture, will keep stratus/stratocumulus
clouds across the terminals. Also, with diurnal relative
humidities increasing overnight, ceilings will likely drop into
the IFR category for KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK. KCVG/KLUK
should see ceilings drop into the 1500 and 2000 foot range by
12Z. Models are indicating that moisture between the 900 and 850
mb level (1500-3500 feet) may become trapped as the center of
the surface ridge pushes into the region this afternoon. Thus,
although daytime heating will allow ceilings to rise to MVFR and
perhaps VFR (near KCVG/KLUK), the moisture along with heating
will likely keep considerable cumulus/stratocumulus across the
region into this evening.
For tonight, surface ridge axis will move east of our area.
Stratocumulus/cumulus should scatter out from west to east
between 00Z and 06Z. Thereafter, mid and high level clouds will
increase from the west ahead of the next weather system to
affect our region Monday into Monday night.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times Monday
into Tuesday morning. Local IFR ceilings possible Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon
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