Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291108 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 608 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ROAD TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN ADDITION PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. DUE TO THIS HAVE ADDED SOME COUNTIES INTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE FA ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SOME OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED SPS FOR LOCATIONS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. ADDED SOME MORE COUNTIES ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WHERE ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER. AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY ALL LOCATIONS WILL GO ABOVE FREEZING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER EXPECT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FA RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. A LARGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS DEEPER/SHARPER AND THUS SLOWER. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR AS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TO BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECAST. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS ALTHOUGH IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO THINK ABOUT SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKY COVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN COLDER PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS SEEMED TOO FAST AND SO IGNORED IT. THUS BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AROUND 12Z AND QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATIONS. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. WHILE TAFS ONLY MENTION RAIN...THERE STILL IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AT ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS. ONCE THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY WITH CEILINGS LOWER A BIT FURTHER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT PROBABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TOO HIGH SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER 00Z WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-043>046-052>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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