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000
FXUS61 KILN 190211
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid airmass will be in place through the week with
increasing thunderstorm chances towards the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Few high based cumulus could linger through the night. Otherwise
light and variable winds will continue. Forecast lows look
reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak boundary will push southward on Wednesday. Cannot rule out
an isolated shower or storm, however generally expect dry
conditions. In addition expect another warm day with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Although heat index
values will reach into the middle to upper 90s across portions
of the area, expect them to remain below heat advisory criteria
levels of a heat index of 100.

Dry conditions will be in place for Wednesday night. Went close
to guidance values for low temperatures with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the period Thursday into Friday, a frontal boundary will stall
out near the southern Great Lakes while a mid level ridge axis
extends from the Ozarks into the middle Ohio Valley. This setup will
bring hot and humid conditions to the region with the threat for at
least scattered thunderstorms the closer one gets to the stalled out
frontal boundary with weak disturbances ripple southeast within the
northwest flow aloft to add some lift.  Highs will range from the
upper 80s to the lower 90s on Thursday, with lower to mid 90s on
Friday. Combining this heat with the humidity, heat indices are
forecast to peak into the mid/upper 90s far north with lower 100s
possible south. We may end up seeing our first heat advisory for the
season for southern locations.

Saturday will perhaps see a little more thunderstorm coverage area
wide while mid level ridge begins to flatten and becomes suppressed
to the south with the aforementioned boundary lingering near our
north. Upper 90s to lower 100 heat indices will again be possible on
Saturday.

Upper level flow begins to become more amplified across southeast
Canada and the Great Lakes early next week.  This will eventually
lead to a mid level trough which will push a cold front southeast
through the region. As is usually the case, there are strength and
timing differences among long term models and a blend was used.
Temperatures will show a downward trend through the period along
with lower humidity values.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Remaining cumulus will dissipate early in the TAF period. There
will be light winds overnight with some locations having
visibility restrictions. Expect no worse than MVFR except at
KLUK which may have variable lower visibilities. Scattered
cumulus will redevelop during the day with west winds less than
10 kt.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...