Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 281627
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1227 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal
boundary will produce heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations
today and tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Friday when the system will be moving east. Disturbances
in the upper atmosphere may help trigger a few more showers and
thunderstorms in an unstable airmass Saturday and Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area of moderate to heavy rain continues to push through ne KY and
the Scioto River Valley. Have cancelled the wrn half of the FFA as
the threat of the heavy rain has pushed to the east.
Latest mesoscale models continue to point to only some scattered
convection popping up nw of I-71 this afternoon. Lowered PoPs to
Tweaked highs this afternoon. A little higher in the nw and lower
on the se.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wave of low pressure will be moving east tonight while the front
sags a bit toward the south. Heavy rain will end overnight, but
the chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly over
southern locations close to the boundary.
Thunderstorms chances will persist Friday when another wave of low
pressure is expected to develop to the west along the still
present boundary. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday as the broad and weak area of low pressure pushes toward
Ohio ahead of a digging mid level short wave.
High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a
few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close
proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA.
This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area.
Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold
front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high
temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave
trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as
mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States.
There still remains timing differences on when the high will build
and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
First area of convection has moved thru CVG/LUK and will affect
ILN and CMH/LCK over the first couple of hours of the taf period.
Expect MVFR cigs and vsbys with the pcpn. There will probably be
some temporary drops to IFR conditions in heavier cells. DAY will
remain on the nw fringe of the pcpn shield.
A second shot of pcpn in s central KY will lift north later this
morning and should affect CVG/LUK around 14Z-16Z.
The deeper moisture shifts east of TAF sites this aftn, so expect
pcpn to become more scattered in nature. Due lagging upper level
support and unstable airmass have kept VCTS until early evening.
Looks like the overnight hours could remain dry, but there will
be a chance of fog at the majority of the taf sites.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Saturday.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ079>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ097>100.