Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190211 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1011 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid airmass will be in place through the week with increasing thunderstorm chances towards the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Few high based cumulus could linger through the night. Otherwise light and variable winds will continue. Forecast lows look reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Weak boundary will push southward on Wednesday. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm, however generally expect dry conditions. In addition expect another warm day with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Although heat index values will reach into the middle to upper 90s across portions of the area, expect them to remain below heat advisory criteria levels of a heat index of 100. Dry conditions will be in place for Wednesday night. Went close to guidance values for low temperatures with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For the period Thursday into Friday, a frontal boundary will stall out near the southern Great Lakes while a mid level ridge axis extends from the Ozarks into the middle Ohio Valley. This setup will bring hot and humid conditions to the region with the threat for at least scattered thunderstorms the closer one gets to the stalled out frontal boundary with weak disturbances ripple southeast within the northwest flow aloft to add some lift. Highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Thursday, with lower to mid 90s on Friday. Combining this heat with the humidity, heat indices are forecast to peak into the mid/upper 90s far north with lower 100s possible south. We may end up seeing our first heat advisory for the season for southern locations. Saturday will perhaps see a little more thunderstorm coverage area wide while mid level ridge begins to flatten and becomes suppressed to the south with the aforementioned boundary lingering near our north. Upper 90s to lower 100 heat indices will again be possible on Saturday. Upper level flow begins to become more amplified across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes early next week. This will eventually lead to a mid level trough which will push a cold front southeast through the region. As is usually the case, there are strength and timing differences among long term models and a blend was used. Temperatures will show a downward trend through the period along with lower humidity values. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Remaining cumulus will dissipate early in the TAF period. There will be light winds overnight with some locations having visibility restrictions. Expect no worse than MVFR except at KLUK which may have variable lower visibilities. Scattered cumulus will redevelop during the day with west winds less than 10 kt. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...

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