Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 190606
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
106 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance
tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to
be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the
next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Light rain showers are persisting this evening across parts of
northern Kentucky and south central Ohio. This is in an area of
good mid level deformation. This is forecast to slowly weaken
through the overnight hours but based on current trends, will
go ahead and hang on to pcpn across our southeast at least into
the early morning hours. Otherwise, the clearing line is
currently running along/just northwest of the I-71 corridor. The
models are fairly pessimistic overnight, saturating the very
low levels. There is still some uncertainty on just how this
will play out, whether it is overdone or else if it will be
more fog or a low stratus deck that develops. Will hedge at this
point and allow for the cloudy skies to push slowly north
overnight and also include some patchy fog wording.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday morning a weak cold front will approach the area from the
northwest and stall. Ahead of the front winds will decrease with
moisture pooling out in front. This will make for a cloudy night
and Sunday morning. Lower PWAT air will then clip the CWA and
briefly allow PWATs to fall to around 0.40" (on both NAM and
GFS). Heights will then continue to rise as a broad upper level
trough exits the area. 850 mb temperatures Sunday are around 8
degrees C which would again support high temperatures in the
lower 60s. The only concern with how warm we will get Sunday
will be how long clouds from the morning hang around. Overall
have tempered high temperatures a bit for Sunday given the
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended stretch of above normal temperatures will continue
from Monday through Friday. Widespread temperatures in the 60s
are expected with some isolated 70s also possible Monday,
Tuesday, and Friday.
A weak cold front will move through Tuesday allowing for some
shower activity. A frontal boundary will meander around the
area Thursday into Thursday night allowing for showers and a
chance of thunderstorms.
Winds will be gusty on Friday as the front lifts north and
southerly flow increases. A strong cold front moves through
Friday night. Thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday into
Friday night with the front. This front will signal a chance to
cooler conditions for Friday night into Saturday. Some very
light snow cannot be ruled out on the back edge of this system
and with some of the wrap around moisture.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light rain showers associated with mid level deformation is
exiting ILN/s southeast counties. These showers will remain to
the southeast of the TAF sites as they push off to the east.
The low level flow will veer northwest early this morning as a
weak front sags down from the north. Numerical models are
showing a saturation of the lower levels below about 1000 feet
toward sunrise. Latest 11u-3.9u satl imagery shows low level
clouds developing acrs portion of southern IL, southern IN, into
western OH. Expect main impact from status due to mixy nature of
boundary layer. Will allow for some IFR VSBY and CIG restrictions
toward sunrise and into the morning hours.
Expect drier air from the north to provide improving conditions
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some fog may be
possible again late tonight into early Monday. At this time have
limited any restriction to MVFR category.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)