Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 150506
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
106 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and possible thunderstorms can be expected into this
morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Behind
the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
The line of storms has weakened across our area as it has been
moving into a more stable airmass. The one exceptions is along
the southern edge of the line, where a more favorable airmass
has allowed for an isolated persistent supercell. This is moving
into a less favorable airmass too though so do expect an
eventual weakening trend with it.
Good clearing behind the line of storms is allowing for airmass
recovery back across Illinois and Indiana. Hi-res models
continue to show redevelopment in this area back to our west
over the next few hours. Some of this more favorable airmass
will likely advect into at least our western areas through this
evening with the potential for discrete supercells to work east
into our area this evening. This development should then move
east into our area through the evening hours and sag slowly
south as we head into tonight. Hi-res cams continue to suggest
the potential for discrete supercells this evening with this
activity so all weather hazards will remain in place. There are
also some signs of potential training so locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible. The severe threat should decrease through
the overnight hours as the instability begins to weaken.
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.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing
across our south/southeast Friday morning, but should begin to
taper off through late morning and into the afternoon as the
cold front moves through. Developing CAA behind the front will
lead to cooler temps with highs Friday ranging from the lower
50s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. Surface high
pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday night,
leading to at least some partial clearing.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough will pivot down across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Saturday through Monday. A series of embedded mid
level short waves will bring some lower chances for rain
showers Saturday night into Sunday and then snow showers on
Monday. Temperatures will steadily cool off through the weekend
and into Monday with highs by Monday only in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.
Surface high pressure will build back into the region on Tuesday
into Wednesday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a bit of a
warm up with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40s and
50s. Some pcpn chances may return toward Thursday as some mid
level energy moves back into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure near Lake Erie will continue to negatively impact
aviation. Thunderstorms have weakened and moved southeast, so
removed them from the forecast. Will see showers at or in the
vicinity of TAF sites for several more hours. Ceilings will drop
to MVFR and then IFR as low level moisture arrives along a
cold front trailing the low. Winds will shift to north after
frontal passage, with speeds over 10 knots. Improvement to VFR
is expected later in the forecast as drier air circulates in
ahead of high pressure.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday night and again on
Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Coniglio