Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190555 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 155 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK LOW PRESSURE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACRS SRN OHIO/NRN KY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE INVOF HANG BACK ELONGATED SFC TROF FROM DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER W VA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY AN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO REMAINING ACRS FAR SRN OHIO/NRN KY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH FOG DEVELOPING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOWER/MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATEST MODEL RUN HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY. THEY ARE STILL DIGGING AN H5 S/W WHICH DEEPENS THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER THEY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE BETTER POPS AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE MORNING HOURS DRY TOMORROW THEN BROUGHT IN HIGH CHANCE POPS TO THE NW BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN. AS THE S/WV EJECTS EWD ACRS THE REGION TUESDAY TONIGHT EXPECT A LINE/AREA OF CONVECTION TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HAS PUT WRN SECTIONS IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2. STRUGGLED WITH HOW WARM TO GO FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. ENDED UP GOING LOWER 80S IN THE NW AND MID 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL BACK ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 WORKS E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN INTO KY. DUE TO LACK IN STRONG FORCING...PCPN CHANCE LOOK LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN NRN KY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRYING TO INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STRETCHES BACK INTO INDIANA. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP APPEARS TO BE IN THE CINCY TRI-STATE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TOO WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FIRST OF ALL...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AT THE TERMINALS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE IS THE HIGHEST. HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT KILN...KCVG AND KLUK...WITH SOME LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE AT KILN AND AND KLUK. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THIS LOW AND WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF AXIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH SHEAR/CONVERGENCE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE PLACED VCTS/CB DESCRIPTORS AT THE SITES WHEN THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE TROF LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED SOME...SO COVERAGE APPEARS LESS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN

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