Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 647 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION (WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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