Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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827 FXUS61 KILN 200022 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 822 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will take hold of the region tonight as as high pressure builds in. The high will bring seasonal weather for Sunday and Monday. A strong cold front will move through the area on Tuesday bringing showers and thunderstorms, before a much cooler and drier airmass moves in for the later half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Frontal boundary now pushing through the forecast area, immediatly ahead of which are some lingering showers and thunderstorms which will affect the southeast quarter of the forecast area through about 9 or 10 pm with diminishing precipitation coverage as mostly clear skies work into the area. Have adjusted temperature forecast in the northern forecast area downward slightly, where clear skies should be the rule most of the night, along with lighter winds closer to the center of the area of high pressure. With these light to calm winds and lingering boundary layer moisture, have continued patchy fog in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be over centered over the Ohio Valley for Sunday. Several models are trying to produce very isolated QPF spots through out the day. Feel that is more of an indication of cu development instead of pcpn, so kept the forecast dry for now. Temperatures will push into the mid to upper 80s Weak shortwave energy deamplifying as it crosses the Great Lakes Sunday night shouldn`t have much of an impact on an expected clear/mostly clear night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions are expected for the start of the long term period on Monday. Cu are expected to develop during the daytime hours in addition to some cirrus beginning to move into the area. The least amount of cloud cover is expected to be across portions of northern Kentucky and south central Ohio with increasing clouds across northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. Went on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures on Monday. After eclipse day on Monday attention turns to a cold front moving through Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Although cannot rule out severe weather anywhere across the region, expect a better severe potential along and southeast of I-71. There is also the potential with the orientation of the flow for some heavier rain near and south of the Ohio River which could lead to some flash flooding issues. Front will push out of the area and precipitation will come to an end by the end of Tuesday night. With CAA on Wednesday expect cooler conditions and also expect a decent cu field to develop. Conditions will be similar on Thursday with slightly less cu and by Friday expect little in the way of clouds. By Saturday expect a slight increase in temperatures with some weak WAA beginning, however expect continued dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With convective activity all now either south or east of the TAF locations, only few cu remain and will diminish to just passing cirrus overnight as winds become light and variable or even calm. With this lingering boundary layer moisture and the close proximity of the high bringing winds less than 3kts, the vulnerable locations of KLUK, KILN and KLCK will develop first MVFR visibilities and KLUK should become IFR in especially the 09-11z timeframe. Higher level MVFR visibility possible other locations. Drier air pushes in for Sunday, with just a few VFR cu possible through the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/Sites NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JDR

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