Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150506 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 106 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and possible thunderstorms can be expected into this morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for the weekend and into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... The line of storms has weakened across our area as it has been moving into a more stable airmass. The one exceptions is along the southern edge of the line, where a more favorable airmass has allowed for an isolated persistent supercell. This is moving into a less favorable airmass too though so do expect an eventual weakening trend with it. Good clearing behind the line of storms is allowing for airmass recovery back across Illinois and Indiana. Hi-res models continue to show redevelopment in this area back to our west over the next few hours. Some of this more favorable airmass will likely advect into at least our western areas through this evening with the potential for discrete supercells to work east into our area this evening. This development should then move east into our area through the evening hours and sag slowly south as we head into tonight. Hi-res cams continue to suggest the potential for discrete supercells this evening with this activity so all weather hazards will remain in place. There are also some signs of potential training so locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. The severe threat should decrease through the overnight hours as the instability begins to weaken. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing across our south/southeast Friday morning, but should begin to taper off through late morning and into the afternoon as the cold front moves through. Developing CAA behind the front will lead to cooler temps with highs Friday ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. Surface high pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday night, leading to at least some partial clearing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level trough will pivot down across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through Monday. A series of embedded mid level short waves will bring some lower chances for rain showers Saturday night into Sunday and then snow showers on Monday. Temperatures will steadily cool off through the weekend and into Monday with highs by Monday only in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Surface high pressure will build back into the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a bit of a warm up with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Some pcpn chances may return toward Thursday as some mid level energy moves back into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure near Lake Erie will continue to negatively impact aviation. Thunderstorms have weakened and moved southeast, so removed them from the forecast. Will see showers at or in the vicinity of TAF sites for several more hours. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and then IFR as low level moisture arrives along a cold front trailing the low. Winds will shift to north after frontal passage, with speeds over 10 knots. Improvement to VFR is expected later in the forecast as drier air circulates in ahead of high pressure. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday night and again on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio

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