Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201327 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 927 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region early this morning. A surface low pressure center will cross east through Michigan and a trailing cold front will spark thunderstorm activity later today and tonight. The front will pass southeast of Ohio early Friday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A warm front is situated across northern Ohio this morning with our area well into the warm sector. Given a fair amount of sunshine and continued southerly flow, will nudge up temperatures a few degrees for today with highs into the low to mid 80s. This will allow us to destabilize through the afternoon. Expect the best instabilities to be across our northwest late this afternoon into early evening where some cooler air will start to work in aloft. Most of the higher res models have trended a little slower with the approach of the front and onset of precipitation later this afternoon although the latest hrrr has trended a little faster again. Nonetheless, expect some thunderstorm development across western portions of our fa along a weak prefrontal trough axis through mid to late afternoon. This activity will work eastward through early evening with some additional development possible along the actual front as it moves in this evening. Expect the best severe threat to be across our northwest where the better instabilities will coincide with some better low and deep layer shear working in from the northwest late in the day. The primary severe threat will be damaging winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Storms will quickly race southeast in the evening ahead of the front, which will cross the I-71 corridor after midnight, marking the end to any lingering activity. Severe storms will quickly wane and are not expected to be tapping a favorable atmosphere after late evening. Temperatures will fall into the 50s behind the front, with some upper 40s found in northwestern CWA. Thunderstorms will lose any instability before daybreak, so primarily showers are forecast for the southeastern portions of the CWA by daybreak. Cloud cover never quite clears up behind the front as storms continue to fire over southern Kentucky during the day and upper level flow remains west-southwest with a trailing longwave trough still extending from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. Surface high pressure will help usher in the colder air and overnight lows Friday will drop into the 40s after daytime highs only in the 60s. The better shot of cold air will occur Saturday with highs topping out in the mid 50s as the upper trough crosses south into the region and hangs up along the Ohio Valley overnight Saturday. The showers that were over southern Kentucky on Saturday are expected to be pulled into southern and southeastern CWA on the east side of the longwave trough. Showers that develop in this area have a higher potential for prolonged moderate rainfall. Have included a chance of thunder and moderate rainfall where pops were likely and higher for Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s once again, and highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat into the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure and dry conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday. A weak system moves through the region on Tuesday, however moisture is limited and therefore kept precipitation chances out of the forecast at this time. Dry conditions continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some waa clouds have begun to form attm as moisture begins to pool over the tafs early this morning. Expect them to remain VFR however. River valley fog has formed at LUK. It is currently at MVFR and is expected to dissipate quickly in the first hour of the forecast. The tafs will remain dry for a majority of today. Expect lower clouds to be limited for the first part of the day, with mid and high clouds coming and going. However sfc winds will increase quickly this morning as mixing gets under the way in advance of a cold front. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots will be possible during the afternoon. Focus then shifts to line of convection that is forecast to develop across the lower Ohio Valley today and move into the tafs. Models have remain consistent in the timing of bringing storms into the tafs a little after 00Z. Storms should bring a period of MVFR conditions between 00Z-06Z. CDFNT passage will bring an end to the convection around 06Z and will usher in MVFR cigs behind the front. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possibly early Friday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites

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