Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190832 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 332 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clouds will remain for much of the day as the region remains under a cold northwest flow aloft. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley tonight, allowing skies to clear. The high will continue to influence the region on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Large scale mid level trough will traverse east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. A weak embedded disturbance in the northwest flow aloft, along with some weak instability, may be enough for a slight chance of a rain and/or snow showers across the northern zones today. Otherwise, clouds will remain for much of the day. As the cold pool of air begins to shift to the east late in the day, stratocumulus deck should begin to erode and shift east. Temperatures will not warm all that much, ranging from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. Northwest winds will remain locally gusty between 15 and 25 knots
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Mid level trough will shift way from the region tonight into Monday. This will allow the flow to back to a quasi zonal pattern. Cold pool associated with the stratocumulus deck is expected to move out of the area this evening, leaving mostly clear skies for the overnight hours. A surface ridge will also build east into the region, with a surface wind shift to the southwest. Temperatures will generally bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. On Monday, the center of the ridge will move southeast toward the Carolina coast. We should see some filtered sunshine as high clouds begin to spill into our area from the west. Temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 40s for highs.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will be moving into the Carolinas by Monday night, with a warm advection pattern setting up across the Ohio Valley. This will continue into Tuesday, with an increasing pressure gradient over the region, leading to another day with stiff southwesterly winds -- gusts likely reaching the 25-30 knot range. With warm advection, this should also allow for temperatures to reach the upper 40s to middle 50s, several degrees warmer than Monday. As the aforementioned surface high moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This front will be pivoting into a WSW-to-ENE orientation, and will be far removed from its parent low (moving into northern Quebec). With moisture also lacking, a dry forecast will be maintained as this front passes through. However, there have been some oscillations across the various model runs with regards to the strength of the front (and its parent shortwave). It may end up possible that some light precipitation will occur across northern Ohio, and some PoPs could eventually need to be introduced for northern sections of the forecast area. The cold advection behind the front is not expected to be as strong as with the current setup occurring as of this writing. Nonetheless, max temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday, before starting a slow recovery through the rest of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Region will remain under a northwest flow pattern aloft today as a large scale mid level trough pivots east through the Great Lakes. CAA in the northwest flow across the Great Lakes will keep a stratocumulus deck across the terminals for a good part of the day. MVFR ceilings are expected. Winds will remain northwest, locally gusty between 20 and 25 knots. By late this afternoon into this evening, as the mid level trough continues east, a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley from the west. This will allow the stratocumulus deck to scour and shift east, return VFR conditions. Wind gusts will subside and will back to the west/southwest. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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