Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180559 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA BY MORNING...WITH COOL WNW FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVE MIN IN SURFACE/925MB TEMPS THAT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING OFF A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...SO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTION OF FLOW WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ADVECTION OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATION BETWEEN 925MB AND 875MB...CAPTURED WELL ON THE NAM12 AND RAP13...BUT VERY POORLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE EROSION OF THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAS SLOWED OR STOPPED...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 900MB AFTER 06Z...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CLOSER TO MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST > ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH. IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD BREAK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVE AS THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN DURING THE EVENING. DURING THIS BREAK IN THE MVFR CIGS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AOB FL050 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST. W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HAYDU

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