Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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478 FXUS61 KILN 181053 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 653 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY...WITH RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY ACTIVITY LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH FILL IN EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BRINGS WEAK CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA. LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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FOCUS AREA NEAR/AFTER 6PM FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF I-71. THOUGH HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH APPARENT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT. . CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT HELPS PRODUCE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND MORE ORGANIZED CELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. COLD FRONT FINALLY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME...WITH PRECIPITATION PUSHING TO THE EAST. STRONG CAA UNDER WNW FLOW WITH SFC RIDGING UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. USED A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S-UPR 70S AND TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...AS QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE WITH THIS SHEARED OUT AND QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM PUSHING OVER DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. A SLOW RECOVERY TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S BY FRIDAY. A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRENGTHENING SE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING PATTERN OF THE SE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR A WET AND HUMID WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. HAVE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN FCST AT KDAY TO JUST A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. STREAMWISE FLOW BREAKS UP TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WEST AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ANY RAIN SHOULD TURN OFF BEFORE NIGHTFALL AND SEE LITTLE THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ENOUGH SO THAT TAFS WILL NEED AMENDMENTS IF THUNDER OCCURS. COLD PUSH COMES IN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE PUT SOME LOW STRATUS FOR A 3-4 HOUR TIME FRAME IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...NOT GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN. WINDS SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BEST TEMPERATURE FALLS OCCUR ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR. DID NOT PUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN WITH THE WINDS SUSTAINING AROUND 8-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING IN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...FRANKS

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