Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161328 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 928 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region late this afternoon into Monday. Temperatures will be near normal for the next couple of days, then a gradual increase in heat and humidity is expected going into the second half of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Very little change to the forecast for today. The area of early morning AC is thinning, as is the river valley fog. Still expect shower and thunderstorms to develop in lower MI later today and slowly drop south towards West Central OH by late afternoon. Normal summer time cu are expected to develop in the heat of the day. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... This evening the mid level short wave will be heading east with PV diving south on the back side of the upper level system. As this happens the front will slowly push south and start to wash out (very weak surface convergence). Upper level support with this system also is not impressive. By Monday morning the upper level short wave has pushed towards western New York with the trough axis being centered across our eastern zones (putting most of the area in weak upper level convergence). Monday afternoon the front will be located around Interstate 71 will instability lingering across our southeast. Forecast soundings at this time don`t look impressive with mid and upper level dry air wrapping around the back side of the upper level low. High res guidance doesn`t show much Monday morning with the NSSL WRF being the most bullish. Monday afternoon some weak showers and thunderstorms will probably develop, but coverage should be modest. Chance PoPs look sufficient at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid and upper level ridging will try to build east northeast toward the region through mid week but our area will mainly remain on its edge. This will keep us in west to northwest flow aloft through much of the week. Some weak mid level energy will move across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, but with the better energy to our north and moisture fairly limited, will maintain a dry forecast through mid week. This will also lead to a gradual warm up with highs in the mid 80s on Tuesday, warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s through Thursday. As we remain on the edge of the upper level ridge, we will transition to more of a northwest flow pattern aloft through the weekend. This will allow for a better chance for some mid level energy to drop down across our area so will allow for slight to chance pops through the remainder of the long term period. As heights begin to drop off some, expect highs back down into the mid 80s by the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure remains centered across the region this morning with an alto cu deck moving across the northwestern TAF sites. There are some returns on the radar with this this morning but will remain as virga. River valleys have also fogged in this morning with KLUK at VLIFR. This river valley fog and some patchy ground fog will lift this morning with mostly light winds and fair weather cu for the afternoon. This evening a surface cold front will be pushing south and bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the terminals. Overall not to impressed with the chance though as surface convergence remains weak and upper level support heads east. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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