Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171727 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through the week. Dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures can be expected through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Frost advisory is expired as of 10 am. Light frost was observed in many locations earlier this morning. High pressure will extend across the region today. Only FEW- SCT cirrus is expected. Under a south/southwest flow and mostly sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 60s. Adjusted highs slightly based on latest short term model blend. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will continue across the region into Wednesday. Clear skies tonight and sunny skies on Wednesday are expected. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Some patchy frost may be possible across the eastern zones. Highs on Wednesday will moderate into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A sprawling and very dry area of high pressure will stretch all the way from the northeastern states to Texas through much of the extended forecast period. Aside from a very weak cold front attempting to make it into the southern Great Lakes / northern Ohio Valley on Thursday night, there will be little change in the pattern through Saturday. Low-level warm advection, with gradually increasing 925mb temps, will allow for a gradual rise in temperatures through Friday. By Saturday, the overall pattern will begin to get more amplified, as mid-level ridging over the southeastern states becomes more pronounced. Because of this, there is some potential for temperatures on Saturday to be a little warmer than currently forecast, though even now the going expectation is for it to be the warmest day of the entire forecast period. On Sunday, a sharp but narrow trough will begin its progression eastward across the Mississippi Valley, eventually reaching the Ohio Valley at some point between then and Monday. Model timing agreement is not excellent with this system, though there has been some improvement with the 00Z runs as the ECMWF has come in with a faster solution -- though still slower than the 18Z/00Z GFS. PoPs will be kept in the chance range until this really gets locked in a little better. As of now, the greatest precipitation chances appear to be during the Sunday night forecast period. Once the trough and its associated cold front pass through the area, there appears to be potential for a larger upper trough to move into the Great Lakes late on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Expect mainly VFR to persist under a large dome of high pressure and dry air. LUK will be the exception where FG will form under ideal radiational cooling and will likely reduce visibility to VLIFR 08z-12z. Otherwise look for mainly clear skies with cloud cover consisting of cirrus wafting in on a westerly flow aloft. With the pressure gradient being tightened by weak mid level short waves, surface winds will be around 10 knots from the southwest during the afternoon, with calm conditions after dark. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Coniglio

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