Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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101 FXUS61 KILN 261752 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 152 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... An axis of better isentropic lift is pivoting across northern portions of our fa this morning. This has resulted in an axis of light rain and sprinkles, reaching as far south as about Wilmington. The isentropic lift should push off to our northeast through this afternoon so expect the best chance for pcpn associated with this to also shift east of our area through early afternoon. Meanwhile a weak warm front will lift north into far southern portions of our fa through the afternoon hours. Areas to the south of the front will likely see significantly more sun than areas to the north as we head through the afternoon. This will result in a decent temperature gradient across our area with highs today ranging from the low to mid 50s north to around 70 across our far south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight a H5 s/w digging thru the upper Great Lakes will push a compact sfc low and cdfnt into the fa. The trend of the finer resolution models have been to delay the onset of the pcpn. So slowed down the PoPs several hours, waiting until midnight (04Z) to bring likely PoPs into the nw counties. There is still questions about how the srn part of the pcpn will hold together. Kept likely PoPs n of I-70 and tapered the pops down to chc and slgt chc as you head south. The amount of instability is also in question tonight. It is very marginal, but don`t want to keep flip flopping, so since the previous forecast had slgt chc thunder, will leave it in the forecast. Bumped up lows to range in the 50s, with a few upper 40s. With the slower solution, Thursday would begin with the front still across the fa along with pcpn. Highest PoPs will be in Central Ohio with decreasing values both south and west. Expect the pcpn to be e of the fa by noon. Temperatures look like they will be non-diurnal Thursday, with high temperatures occurring during the late morning hours before the cooler air works in. High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night and the high will be centered over the area Friday morning. Lows Thursday night will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. The area of high pressure will push off to the east Friday allowing southerly flow to push highs back into the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Winds will pick up on Saturday out of the southwest. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. These warm winds out of the southwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the area. High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above normal, however still around 5 to 7 degrees below record at this time. The forecast high on Saturday at CMH is 75, record 80, normal 60. The forecast high on Saturday at CVG is 78, record 83, normal 62. The forecast high on Saturday at DAY is 75, record 82, and normal 59. A frontal boundary will work through the region on Sunday. Moisture is limited with this feature and therefore went dry to chance for precipitation chances. The best chance of some light shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area around CMH. High pressure will then work into the area Sunday night into Monday. There is not a significant precipitation signal for the end of the long term and therefore went with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The earlier shower activity has pushed east of the area with some mid and high level clouds lingering, especially across northern portions of the forecast area. A warm front currently located just south of the Ohio River will lift north across our region tonight ahead of a low pressure system moving into the southern Great Lakes. An associated cold front will then push east across the area through mid to late Thursday morning. Along and ahead of the front, a 40-50 knot 925-850 mb jet will rotate up across the region later tonight into Thursday morning. This will allow for some shower activity to develop overnight and as the low level jet strengthens, we could approach LLWS criteria at times. Expect the better pcpn coverage at the northern taf sites closer to the stronger low level convergence so will allow for a tempo -shra at those locations with just a vcsh farther south. Cigs will gradually lower through the VFR category ahead of the cold front and then should drop into mvfr as we get into the CAA behind the front Thursday morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.