Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 302344 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 744 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE WIND HOWEVER ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE ENE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT. ADDED IN HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE HWO AND ALSO PUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY TRAVELING FROM AROUND JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST OF THIS AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WHILE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIOD WILL START WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD. AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA LINE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND AS WE START TO LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...THINK THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY KDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CIGS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT CIGS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO AT LEAST MVFR AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS INTO MONDAY MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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