Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270554 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push through the region overnight. High pressure will then provide dry weather through mid week. Precipitation chances will increase toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weak cold front will move southeast through the region overnight. A few showers will accompany the front, with skies clearing after passage. Lows will be chilly, ranging from near 50 north to the lower/mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation could be lingering in the southeast very early Tuesday, but will move off to the southeast. In northwest flow pattern, surface high pressure to build into the region Tuesday. With cold 8H pool over the region expect some shallow high based cumulus clouds to develop. Tuesday will be dry with rather cool highs from the lower 70s northeast to the mid 70s southwest. Surface high pressure to slide east of the region Tuesday night. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds will give way to clear skies early Tuesday evening. Expect cool lows from near 50 northeast to the mid 50s southwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... On Wednesday morning, surface high pressure will be centered over West Virginia, with a relatively dry air mass remaining in place across the Ohio Valley region. With heights rising, and southerly flow firmly in place in the low levels, warm advection should be notable -- with a temperature rise to near 80 degrees. As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and beyond, mesoscale details will play a significant role in exact timing and placement of precipitation. A frontal zone is expected to set up east-to-west across the southern Great Lakes beginning early Thursday, but despite this, theta-e and wind plots suggest the ILN CWA will remain in the warm sector (a regime of solid deep-layer southwesterly flow) through Saturday afternoon. This will tend to favor convective initiation upstream (north and northwest) of the ILN CWA on Thursday and Friday, with eventual some propagation downstream which should impact the ILN CWA. PoPs have been focused on the northern sections of the CWA, with greater expectations during diurnal or post-diurnal time frames (afternoon through evening / early overnight). A shortwave moving east across Lake Michigan will provide extra support for convection Friday evening, but this too seems likely to not land a direct hit on the ILN CWA. It may take until cold frontal progression on Saturday / Saturday night before chances increase CWA-wide, and PoPs were increased on Saturday to reflect this. Through this period, how much of the CWA remains capped is a question, and mesoscale foci / localized forcing will help decide if storms can develop within the warm sector. With ample instability and at least somewhat favorable deep-layer shear, some heavy rainfall / strong to severe storms could be possible from Thursday through Saturday. Confidence in any specifics will keep this out of the HWO for now. With a clearing push behind the cold front late Saturday, models have trended drier for Sunday, before warm advection begins to bring a chance of precipitation into the area again on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 s/w will continue to swing across the srn Great Lakes early this morning. Convection will continue to be shunted south and e of the tafs as a weak front works through. Broken mid level cigs will affect CMH/LCK for the first few hours of the taf period. Scattered clouds are then expected. With weak CAA at H8 today, scattered cu around 3500-4000ft will develop by 15Z. The diurnal cu will dissipate with sunset as high pressure builds into the region for tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Sites

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