Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201437 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1037 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR VARIABLE DEWPOINTS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IN ESPECIALLY THE NW AND ESE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HAVE ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS A BIT HIGHER TO ALLOW FOR THIS AID IN DAYTIME HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON MONDAY. MAY START TO SEE SOME CUMULUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT. THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. NONETHELESS HAVE DELAYED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT JUST A BIT WHICH MEANS THAT SHOWERS MAY NOW EXTEND A LITTLE MORE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY STILL SEEM QUITE MINIMAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR MASS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN ON TUESDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF ON THURSDAY AND WINDS TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS... TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KLUK...DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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