Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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995 FXUS61 KILN 211901 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 301 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak disturbance will move across the area late this afternoon and this evening. A high pressure center will move from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday morning into the mid Atlantic states Thursday evening. Southerly winds on the back side of the high will result in temperatures warming above normal for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sheared short wave over Iowa early this afternoon will quickly track east southeast and move through the forecast area this evening. This will bring an increase in mid and high clouds along with a narrow stripe of stronger vertical motion. It is possible that there could be some light precipitation with this, although with dry low levels have opted to just include a chance of sprinkles. Once the short wave moves by, skies will clear. A secondary push of colder air will move in during the latter part of the night. MOS looks in the ball park for lows. With the early growing season along and south of the Ohio River, a freeze warning will be needed there.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will build into the region through the period. There will be plenty of sun on Wednesday. Some high and mid clouds will push in from the southwest on Wednesday night but this will do little to keep temperatures. Temperatures will be quite cool with temperatures more than 10 degrees below normal both periods. Another freeze warning will be needed Wednesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Upper air pattern will generally feature a ridge in place across the Eastern CONUS. Models indicate that there will be plenty of short wave energy moving up the western flank of the ridge to provide forcing for a few rounds of unsettled weather. Surface high will be retreating east on Thursday while low pressure develops far to the west. Showers may affect mainly northern locations Thursday night in a warm frontal zone of isentropic lift extending through the Great Lakes. Dry, mild and breezy conditions are expected Friday after the boundary lifts north, leaving the ILN area squarely in the warm sector. The large and potent low pressure system will travel to the Mississippi Valley Saturday, then to the Western Great Lakes on Sunday. Strong moisture transport and lift ahead of the low will produce showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours. As the low weakens while moving into a less favorable environment aloft, another low following from the west will allow only a brief respite from precip early Monday, before showers and thunderstorms become likely again late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure and drier air may arrive late Tuesday. Look for slightly below normal highs around 50 on Thursday. A period featuring primarily warm advection on a southerly flow will bring highs up to the 60s to low 70s Friday through Tuesday, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Remaining MVFR ceilings will dissipate early in the TAF period. High and mid clouds will move across the area between 21Z and 06Z. Could be a brief period of time when ceilings drop to around 5000 ft along with some sprinkles that will have no impact on visibility. These clouds will move off to the east leaving little to no clouds for the latter part of the TAF period. A cold front will move through the region tonight which will result in a subtle shift from northwest to north. An increase in wind speeds will be somewhat more noticeable with some gusts around 20kt not out of the question for a few hours immediately after frontal passage. Winds will veer around to northeast after 12Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ077>079- 081-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ073>075- 080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...

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