Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 261752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers and
possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High
pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An axis of better isentropic lift is pivoting across northern
portions of our fa this morning. This has resulted in an axis of
light rain and sprinkles, reaching as far south as about
Wilmington. The isentropic lift should push off to our northeast
through this afternoon so expect the best chance for pcpn
associated with this to also shift east of our area through early
afternoon. Meanwhile a weak warm front will lift north into far
southern portions of our fa through the afternoon hours. Areas to
the south of the front will likely see significantly more sun than
areas to the north as we head through the afternoon. This will
result in a decent temperature gradient across our area with
highs today ranging from the low to mid 50s north to around 70
across our far south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight a H5 s/w digging thru the upper Great Lakes will push a
compact sfc low and cdfnt into the fa. The trend of the finer
resolution models have been to delay the onset of the pcpn. So
slowed down the PoPs several hours, waiting until midnight (04Z)
to bring likely PoPs into the nw counties. There is still
questions about how the srn part of the pcpn will hold together.
Kept likely PoPs n of I-70 and tapered the pops down to chc and
slgt chc as you head south. The amount of instability is also in
question tonight. It is very marginal, but don`t want to keep flip
flopping, so since the previous forecast had slgt chc thunder,
will leave it in the forecast. Bumped up lows to range in the 50s,
with a few upper 40s.
With the slower solution, Thursday would begin with the front
still across the fa along with pcpn. Highest PoPs will be in
Central Ohio with decreasing values both south and west. Expect
the pcpn to be e of the fa by noon. Temperatures look like they
will be non-diurnal Thursday, with high temperatures occurring
during the late morning hours before the cooler air works in.
High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night and the high
will be centered over the area Friday morning. Lows Thursday night
will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. The area of high
pressure will push off to the east Friday allowing southerly flow
to push highs back into the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds will pick up on Saturday out of the southwest. Wind gusts
of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. These warm winds out of the
southwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the area.
High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above
normal, however still around 5 to 7 degrees below record at this
time. The forecast high on Saturday at CMH is 75, record 80,
normal 60. The forecast high on Saturday at CVG is 78, record 83,
normal 62. The forecast high on Saturday at DAY is 75, record 82,
and normal 59.
A frontal boundary will work through the region on Sunday. Moisture
is limited with this feature and therefore went dry to chance for
precipitation chances. The best chance of some light shower
activity will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area
High pressure will then work into the area Sunday night into Monday.
There is not a significant precipitation signal for the end of the
long term and therefore went with dry conditions.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The earlier shower activity has pushed east of the area with some
mid and high level clouds lingering, especially across northern
portions of the forecast area. A warm front currently located just
south of the Ohio River will lift north across our region
tonight ahead of a low pressure system moving into the southern
Great Lakes. An associated cold front will then push east across
the area through mid to late Thursday morning.
Along and ahead of the front, a 40-50 knot 925-850 mb jet will
rotate up across the region later tonight into Thursday morning.
This will allow for some shower activity to develop overnight and
as the low level jet strengthens, we could approach LLWS criteria
at times. Expect the better pcpn coverage at the northern taf
sites closer to the stronger low level convergence so will allow
for a tempo -shra at those locations with just a vcsh farther
Cigs will gradually lower through the VFR category ahead of the
cold front and then should drop into mvfr as we get into the CAA
behind the front Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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