Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142029 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 329 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers that formed in a warm and moist southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front will move east this evening, leaving cloudy skies and patchy fog. An upper disturbance interacting with the cold front will produce widespread showers on Thursday. Drier air and colder temperatures are expected Friday with high pressure arriving behind the cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Showers that have formed in a moist southerly flow near an ill- defined warm front will translate eastward across the FA, with precip diminishing this evening. A few thunderstorms developing in a layer of elevated instability containing ~200 J/KG CAPE will weaken and end as the short wave triggering the instability moves east. Overnight, a few showers may linger, skies will stay cloudy, and patchy fog may form in nearly saturated low level moisture over cooler ground. With a persistent southerly flow carrying warmer air, temperatures are not forecast to fall much if at all, with lows ranging from the mid 40s north up to the upper 50s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday will see ingredients for widespread rain showers coming into phase. As ample moisture advection continues in a southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front, short wave energy will trigger a surface low along the front. A swath of showers will develop and move into the area in enhanced lift surrounding the surface wave, with the main focus of showers being roughly along I-70 during Thursday afternoon. As the cold front strengthens and accelerates in response to increasing jet stream winds, showers will continue Thursday night, while the bulk of showers shifts toward Southeast Ohio behind the departing surface low. Drier conditions should begin to arrive ahead of high pressure by late Thursday night. Models predict rainfall amounts of around one inch. Localized flooding potential seems rather low so held off on a flood watch, though ponding may be a concern. High temperatures rising well above normal will reach around 60 north up to around 70 south.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Drier air will work in from the northwest behind the cold front through the day Friday. This will allow for pcpn to end behind frontal passage. In the CAA pattern, temperatures will slowly fall into the 30s through the day. Surface high pressure will quickly traverse the region Friday night. Dry weather is expected with lows in the 20s. For Saturday, a s/wv will approach the region from the west. This will perturb a weak area of low pressure along the old frontal boundary to our southeast. Dynamic lift will pull moisture northward with the likelihood of pcpn expected across our south/east with a chance of pcpn west. There could be a little snow mixed on the northern/western fringes, with little if any accumulation expected. By Saturday night, the weather system will quickly exit east with pcpn ending. For Sunday, we will once again see a brief reprieve in the wet pattern with high pressure expected across the Ohio Valley. Highs will range from the 40s to around 50. Upper level pattern across the CONUS will become more amplified as we head into next week. This will bring back the wet pattern as embedded s/wvs in the flow combine with a slow-moving boundaries to bring periods of showers, some of which may be locally heavy. This pattern will keep the flood threat going for our region, including river points. Likely PoPs were used for Monday and Tuesday, with chance PoPs lingering into mid/late week. Persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures warm until at least mid week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Very moist airmass in conjunction with a warm front will adversely impact aviation. Ceilings and visibilities down to LIFR in rain showers will continue to affect TAF sites this afternoon. Slight improvement to IFR will be possible this evening as the warm front lifts farther north allowing somewhat drier air to work into lower levels. Kept thunder out of forecast due to expected isolated nature. As conditions on Thursday remain no better than MVFR, showers are forecast to return, becoming widespread at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. South to southwest winds will increase to above 10 knots by the end of the forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Coniglio

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