Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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981 FXUS61 KILN 171735 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 135 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected today as high pressure moves slowly east. A cold front approaching from the west may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop beginning tonight and continuing through mid week. Above normal temperatures are forecast in a persistent southerly flow ahead of the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Axis of very weak moisture convergence has worked into far western counties and brought some isolated showers. But this appears to be diminishing. Beyond that, just some cumulus across the region. Forecast temperatures still appear on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Cold front will continue to weaken tonight through Monday as it moves into a less favorable airmass over Northwest Ohio. There still may be enough moisture and instability to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, with best precip chances confined mainly to counties northwest of Dayton. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the low 80s can be expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Shortwave moving through Southern Canada will flatten out the mid level ridge over the Great Lakes. This will allow a surface cold front to drop south into Northwest Ohio early in the week. Marginal instability and the vicinity of this boundary will lead to chance/slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over ILN/s northwest counties Monday night. Chance pops for thunderstorms Tuesday across the western counties where more favorable moisture and marginal instability is expected. Although the mid level ridge builds over the Great Lakes at mid week, a weak s/w under cuts the ridge over the Ohio Valley. This s/w combined with marginal instability will lead to the best chance of thunderstorms this week on Wednesday. Mid level ridge to build and become established over the Great Lakes later this week and into next weekend. Model solution differences exist regarding the position of this high. Can not rule out airmass type thunderstorms especially next Weekend. Have followed a soln closer to the ECMWF, keeping ILN/s FA dry with a lack of any significant forcing. Temperatures will be above normal through the long term period with highs generally in the lower and middle 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR will prevail for the first half of the TAF period with cumulus diminishing towards 00Z. Appears that there may be some mid and high clouds spreading into the region overnight which may impact the potential for fog/mist. But opted to still hold on to some visibility restrictions at the normally more susceptible locations. Some cumulus will develop on Monday with a perhaps more extensive mid/high cloud deck. Winds will continue to be quite light with a general southerly component. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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