Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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861 FXUS61 KILN 010812 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO OHIO TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GETS KICKED EAST AHEAD OF AN EJECTING H5 LOW. ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA TODAY AS A SFC WAVE WORKS UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD START IN THE SRN COUNTIES WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND...BUT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SPREAD NWD AS THE SFC LOW WORKS THROUGH IN THE AFTN. THERE COULD BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ON GOING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FILLING H5 TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SW TO NE AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD DROPPED INTO SRN KY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S HOWEVER. H5 ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY. TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOSTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH KDAY EVEN LIFR. SOME SITES HAVE BROKEN TO VFR BUT THIS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WIDESPREAD. GFS/ NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ALSO STARTED TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO PULL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAK AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WOULD SUPPORT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT LATE MORNING TURNING TO MVFR AND THEN FINALLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL SUPPORT THIS WITH COLUMBUS FORECASTED TO BREAK OUT FIRST. CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF PRECIP IS LOW AS HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB THUS FAR CAPTURING ON GOING PRECIP IN INDIANA/ ILLINOIS. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIGHT WORK INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES... WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT... BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO AN EARLIER REDEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESENT WOULD SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20Z AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ NAM/ RAP ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING THOUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAINES

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