Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140550 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1250 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation will expand across the region tonight. With temperatures near or below freezing, periods of freezing rain will be possible tonight into early Saturday morning. Building high pressure will push the precipitation to the south of the region Saturday afternoon and night, before it lifts north again on Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Precipitation has overspread locations near the Ohio River. In addition some more isolated to scattered precipitation has occurred as far north as Preble to Hocking Counties. Precipitation has generally been in the form of rain with some sleet as well. Temperatures are at or below freezing across portions of Ripley County over to Clinton County and points north. Due to this some of the rain has been freezing rain. Kept freezing rain advisory in place as expect some lighter precipitation to push northward through the remainder of the advisory area later tonight into Saturday morning. Ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch or less still look plausible with lighter amounts across northern portions of the advisory. Cannot rule out some light sleet or freezing rain north of the advisory where the special weather statement is out for. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Lift will be ongoing across the region at the start of Saturday morning, but weakens quickly, allowing the pcpn to be shunted south of the Ohio River and high pressure builds in. The models are stronger with this high than previous runs allowing it to push the pcpn farther south. Highs Saturday will be near normal, ranging from the mid 30s in the north to the lower 40s in nrn KY. Saturday night looks dry down and the nrn counties could see some breaks in the clouds. Temps will drop back to the mid 20 to lower 30s with the normal n-s gradient. The front will begin to lift back to the north on Sunday. Rain will develop on the isentropic lift. This will allow for chance PoPs to spread back up across the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Saturday night as the pcpn reaches north of I-70, temperatures will once again be at or just below freezing, so a wintery mix will be possible. Any pcpn looks to be fairly light, but will keep the mention in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front lifting northward through the Ohio Valley early on Monday is getting less and less coverage looking at the QPF fields. This appears due to the h5 ridge in place that would limit any upward motion in the region. GFS has an elongated vort maxima that cuts through a significantly weaker h5 ridge and this was in line with the previous several days forecast. Was hesitant to lower the chances of rain in this period to nothing as a low chance seemed the better forecast. If precip is here at this time, early Monday would see temps below freezing along and north of the I-70 corridor for a few hours until temps quickly rise above 32 deg. As the upper ridge moves east overnight, rain will overspread the region from the west. Some of this may be heavy at times as the surface low tracking to the Great Lakes region is strengthening and the low level jet brings in a good moisture plume from the Gulf. Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFS brings a cutoff low tracking south into the midwest and then east through the region. Canadian and European models are much less robust with the h5 low and keep a more open wave as it crosses further north. This is the warmer and wetter solution which has better continuity from previous forecasts when extrapolating further into Tuesday night and Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from west to east during the day. GFS was dry for early Wednesday whereas European and Canadian hold the surface front and weak low pressure center over nrn KY early on Wednesday before exiting east. Kept Thursday dry and hedged towards a chance of showers on Friday but feel that any system this far out would only impact areas south of the CWA. Continued to keep to the warm side of guidance for the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Moisture and short wave energy interacting with a frontal boundary will continue to produce less than ideal flight conditions. FZRA will be possible at northern sites DAY ILN CMH and LCK, with RA at CVG and LUK where temps will be just above freezing. Ceilings down to IFR will accompany the mainly light precip. Precip will end around 00z Sunday as high pressure builds from the northwest, though models indicate continued MVFR ceilings. Winds will stay under 10 knots with direction shifting from northeast to northwest. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ042-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-082. KY...None. IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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