Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 211759
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
159 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system
pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure
will build into the area through the first of the week, leading
to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A surface low will push east of the area today. Scattered light shower
activity will continue however as an upper level disturbance
approaches and moves through the region. This will also keep
extensive cloud cover across the area through the day. A few
breaks in the clouds will be possible on the western portions of
the forecast area. There is some limited instability this
afternoon across southeast portions of the forecast area. Due
to this have a slight chance of thunder in the forecast however
with extensive cloud cover believe this is overdone and that
thunder will be minimal. Cloud cover will also limit temperatures
today and therefore went on the cool side of guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday
as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. This
energy will brush across eastern portions of our FA late tonight
into the day on Sunday and may result in a few showers across our
east. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough
sunshine across at least our western areas to help push
temperatures into the lower 70s. Across the east where there
could be a few more clouds, expect highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. Surface high pressure and a drier airmass will
build in from the west through the day on Monday. Temperatures
will continue to slowly moderate with highs in the mid 70s
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the ridge flattens and the area of upper level low pressure in
New England gradually weakens, the pattern will change to a more
progressive setup of SSW flow from the southwestern states into
the Ohio Valley, and will likely remain in this configuration
through the rest of the week. With ridging over the southeastern
states, this will allow for a steadier stream of warm and moist
air into the middle sections of the country. With shortwaves
moving through the pseudo-zonal setup on occasion, chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Initial precipitation
chances appear to begin on Tuesday night (in a regime of strong
southwesterly 925mb- 850mb theta-e advection). However,
contributions from the diurnal cycle will make developmental
convection during the afternoons of Wednesday through Friday.
Otherwise, timing the small-scale features out will be critical
for specifics on this part of the forecast as it gets closer to
the current time. With the potential for the development of
moderate instability, some severe threat may exist during the
second half of next week.
Though model runs today were slightly more aggressive with the
southerly flow and the potential for warming temperatures next week,
the occasional chances for rain (and likely persistence of clouds)
will keep the forecast from making more than a small upward
adjustment in max temps from Wednesday through Friday. This forecast
will allow for temperatures of around 80 each day, but these could
need to be increased slightly on any given day if a brief dry /
sunny period eventually becomes more certain to occur.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cigs will gradually improve across the region this afternoon.
Winds will pick up with some wind gusts around 20 knots this
afternoon before decreasing this evening. Scattered light shower
activity will be present this afternoon before dissipating this
evening. MVFR visbys will be possible at KLUK for a few hours
overnight with fog. Winds will pick up again during the day on
Sunday with wind gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon. Cu will
develop for the daytime hours. Upper level disturbance will lead
to the potential for a few showers late in the TAF period at KCMH
OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in Thunderstorms on
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