Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020557 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 157 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO TENNESSEE... ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY FURTHER DIMINISH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE TRAVELED NORTH WITH THE FRONT TO BE NEAR I-70. THOUGH CELLS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AFTER SUNSET...STRENGTH HAS PERSISTED DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FLOW OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IS RESULTING IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY...A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY RELATIVE TO THE LOCATION OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 50 NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO TENNESSEE MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND MOISTURE...PROVIDING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. INSTABILITY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT DISAPPEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF LAGS SFC LOW WHICH IS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER ILN/S SE COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS SOLNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH PCPN ENDING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MARGINAL...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 70 SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING THE CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING VSBY DECREASE. LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK INTO WESTERN TAF SITES OF KDAY AND KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE SOME VFR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT. IF THE NORTHERLY WIND IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE CLOUD COVER MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO A POTENTIAL FOGGY NIGHT OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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