Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281944 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 344 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/ ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR SHORTWAVES. ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST. AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS). WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO THE AVAILABLE FORCING.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...NOVAK

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