Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 221145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
Showers associated with an upper low will move east today,
leaving mostly cloudy skies. Showers will be possible again on
Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across
Northern Ohio. A strong cold front will push through late
Friday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak cold front has washed out as expected, leaving a light
southerly low level flow that remains nearly saturated. Rain
showers and drizzle that have developed around the northern
periphery of an upper low will persist for a few more hours
mainly in southeastern counties, along with cloudy skies and BR.
Showers will end and clouds/BR should exhibit a decreasing
trend by mid afternoon as drier air works in on a westerly flow
aloft behind the departing upper low.
Temperatures will stay well above normal, with highs in the mid
and upper 60s expected.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry weather is forecast for tonight, though isolated
showers may develop ahead of the next boundary dropping into
Ohio from the northwest. For Thursday, the boundary will lift
back north as a warm front ahead of deepening low pressure,
with more showers possible in increasing isentropic lift over
the front. Northern half of the FA will be under higher threat
for showers, being closer to the warm front.
Highs in the upper 60s will be more than 20 degrees above
normal, with record highs at Columbus and Dayton attainable.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vigorous jet energy to carve out a trough over the Rookies and
western US. Negatively tilted shortwave pivoting northeast around
this mean trough will induce a deepening surface low that ejects
from the central plains into the mid MS VLY Thursday night and into
the Great Lakes Friday.
East-west stalled surface front to lift north as a warm front with a
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly across the
northern counties Thursday night. Temperatures will be very mild
with lows Thursday night from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s
Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when
temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and
lower/middle 70s. Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east
through ILN/s FA Friday night.
MUCAPES values of 500 to 1000 j/kg are fcst late Friday afternoon
into Friday night ahead of this surface front. Numerical models
differ on exact track of surface low but continue to show strong
fropa Friday night in the Ohio Valley. Sherbs3 shows a a good signal
for low cape/high shear, strong squall line potential with the
possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this
threat in the HWO product.
In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA
pattern later Friday night into Saturday. A few showers will be
possible Saturday especially across west central Ohio due to the
passage of the mid level trof. These showers may transition or mix
with a few snow showers for a brief period prior to ending Saturday
evening. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry
weather and more seasonable Temperatures.
Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems
in quick zonal flow. Have allowed a slight chance of a shower late
Sunday night into early Monday with a front dropping south through
the area. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday
into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a
surface wave of low pressure developing in the central plains. More
uncertainty in the forecast next Wednesday when the GFS brings a
front through ILN/s FA early, while the ECMWF develops a deep low
that tracks through the Great Lakes with the front coming through in
the afternoon. Will trend the forecast toward the ECMWF allowing for
warmer highs in the warmer sector with a chance of a thunderstorm.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level shortwave tracking through the Ohio Valley has lead to
favorable 850 mb convergence. This forcing was resulting in rain
showers over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. As this
feature shifts off to the east by late morning, rain showers and
drizzle will end from west to east. Lingering low level moisture
will affect the TAF sites with CIGS below 1000 feet and
visibilities below 2 miles in spots.
Slow improvement to MVFR is expected by the afternoon, with VFR
possible at CVG and LUK late in the afternoon before MVFR CIGS
and VSBYS from fog returns this evening. MVFR conditions are
forecast overnight but CIGS below 1000 feet will be possible
again late tonight.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. MVFR
ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961)