Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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054 FXUS61 KILN 101142 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 642 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES. LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS AND NAM BEGIN TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT INDICATING THAT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE. SATURATION THICKNESS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT KCMH IS AROUND 200 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHILE AT KCVG SATURATION IS ONLY AROUND 100 MB THICK AND DOESN`T ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGH RES MODELS FAVOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND SO HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES AT ALL HERE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS ONLY AROUND 20 DEGREES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN -16 AND -18 DEGREES C WITH LOW LEVEL 1000/ 900 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 810 M. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12 TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO VFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THEY DO APPEAR TO BE BEGINNING TO LOWER BACK DOWN TOWARD MVFR AS SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL IFR AND LOWER VSBYS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF SOME IFR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND ESPECIALLY AT KCMH/KLCK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ053-060>062-070>072-077>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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