Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261424 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FA IN NORTHEAST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE BRINGING CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SE INTO THE FA. UPPED POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE FA...DOWN TO AROUND I-71. PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOK ON-TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM WAS THINNING OUT OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THINNING CLOUDS PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W ENERGY DROPS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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