Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221145 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers associated with an upper low will move east today, leaving mostly cloudy skies. Showers will be possible again on Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across Northern Ohio. A strong cold front will push through late Friday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak cold front has washed out as expected, leaving a light southerly low level flow that remains nearly saturated. Rain showers and drizzle that have developed around the northern periphery of an upper low will persist for a few more hours mainly in southeastern counties, along with cloudy skies and BR. Showers will end and clouds/BR should exhibit a decreasing trend by mid afternoon as drier air works in on a westerly flow aloft behind the departing upper low. Temperatures will stay well above normal, with highs in the mid and upper 60s expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... Mainly dry weather is forecast for tonight, though isolated showers may develop ahead of the next boundary dropping into Ohio from the northwest. For Thursday, the boundary will lift back north as a warm front ahead of deepening low pressure, with more showers possible in increasing isentropic lift over the front. Northern half of the FA will be under higher threat for showers, being closer to the warm front. Highs in the upper 60s will be more than 20 degrees above normal, with record highs at Columbus and Dayton attainable. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Vigorous jet energy to carve out a trough over the Rookies and western US. Negatively tilted shortwave pivoting northeast around this mean trough will induce a deepening surface low that ejects from the central plains into the mid MS VLY Thursday night and into the Great Lakes Friday. East-west stalled surface front to lift north as a warm front with a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly across the northern counties Thursday night. Temperatures will be very mild with lows Thursday night from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and lower/middle 70s. Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Friday night. MUCAPES values of 500 to 1000 j/kg are fcst late Friday afternoon into Friday night ahead of this surface front. Numerical models differ on exact track of surface low but continue to show strong fropa Friday night in the Ohio Valley. Sherbs3 shows a a good signal for low cape/high shear, strong squall line potential with the possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO product. In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA pattern later Friday night into Saturday. A few showers will be possible Saturday especially across west central Ohio due to the passage of the mid level trof. These showers may transition or mix with a few snow showers for a brief period prior to ending Saturday evening. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures. Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems in quick zonal flow. Have allowed a slight chance of a shower late Sunday night into early Monday with a front dropping south through the area. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface wave of low pressure developing in the central plains. More uncertainty in the forecast next Wednesday when the GFS brings a front through ILN/s FA early, while the ECMWF develops a deep low that tracks through the Great Lakes with the front coming through in the afternoon. Will trend the forecast toward the ECMWF allowing for warmer highs in the warmer sector with a chance of a thunderstorm. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level shortwave tracking through the Ohio Valley has lead to favorable 850 mb convergence. This forcing was resulting in rain showers over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. As this feature shifts off to the east by late morning, rain showers and drizzle will end from west to east. Lingering low level moisture will affect the TAF sites with CIGS below 1000 feet and visibilities below 2 miles in spots. Slow improvement to MVFR is expected by the afternoon, with VFR possible at CVG and LUK late in the afternoon before MVFR CIGS and VSBYS from fog returns this evening. MVFR conditions are forecast overnight but CIGS below 1000 feet will be possible again late tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR CLIMATE...

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