Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281442 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 80S. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON THE FOG TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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