Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200202 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances will bring chances for precipitation to the region off and on through Thursday. A better chance for precipitation will occur on Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to work southeast thru mainly the nrn portions of the fa. This convection has been on the decrease with the lose of daytime heating and should die out by midnight. Srn sections will see clear skies tonight, with nrn counties seeing partly cloudy skies early before turning mostly clear. Temperatures across the north are rain cooled into the 60s, with Bellefontaine at 59. They will hold steady for the first half of the night before ending up in the upper 50s. Across the south, temperatures should end up around 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another embedded weather disturbance within a large scale mid level trough across the Great Lakes will affect northern sections of the CWFA late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thus, will continue with a chance of showers/storms there during this time frame. Otherwise, a good portion of Tuesday will be dry along with temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A remnant boundary/trough axis will settle across the northern forecast area later Tuesday night. By then, forcing and instability will have waned that skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak upper trough will pass north of the region Wednesday and meet a relatively unreceptive airmass to create showers. Attm, they are isolated at best and generally expected to be light. High pressure will then keep the region dry until later Thursday as moisture gets pulled into the region from the south and wrung out along a front in the Great Lakes area. Even the chances on this day are marginal at best but warm frontal processes will necessitate chance pops in the northeast late in the day. Beyond Thursday the chances for storms will increase and maximize on Friday and Friday night, lingering into Saturday as a southern upper low moves northeast and the surface cold front dives south. The cold front should push any lingering storms along it south and away from the CWA by Saturday night and high pressure will build back in with some instability showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, much like todays weather. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday and maximize a few degrees above normal on Thursday. They will then drop into the 70s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s for most nights will be maximized near 70 Thursday night. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/W swinging through the base of an H5 trof over the Great Lakes, continues to help convection pop across nrn IN into Ohio. The convection is forecast to gradually dissipate over the first few hours of the taf period, with the loss of daytime heating. Have a tempo MVFR/IFR group in CMH/LCK based on the latest radar loop. Carried VCTS/VCSH at DAY and ILN for the first few hours. After the storms come to an end, the skies should be mostly clear. With the pcpn that moved through CMH/LCK, models are suggesting the possibility of some MVFR fog after 06Z in those locations. Kept the tafs VFR after 12Z. Models have really backed off on swinging another embedded disturbance into the region during the taf period. Did develop some scattered VFR clouds however. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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