Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261755 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 155 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FA IN NORTHEAST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE BRINGING CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SE INTO THE FA. UPPED POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE FA...DOWN TO AROUND I-71. PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOK ON-TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGA FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND 03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z. BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...SITES

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