Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151501 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1101 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will pass south of the region offering a few isolated showers early this morning. A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest this afternoon and stall across the region tonight into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with this front this afternoon. An enhanced chance of storms will occur Wednesday night into Thursday, as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and a cold front approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Very few changes to the forecast this afternoon. GOES16 visible satellite/water vapor loops clearly show shortwave trough progressing through the Great Lakes, and attendant surface boundary drifting south through northern IND/OH. This boundary has recently shown some agitation with shower development in northern Indiana. Recent HRRR runs support other CAMS/ensembles showing modest uptick in shower coverage into areas along/north of I-70 during the afternoon hours, and have continued isolated/scattered coverage in this forecast update. Forecast soundings suggest meager boundary layer instability so getting thunder will be tough as depth/magnitude of CAPE in the charge separation region of the sounding is rather paltry. Second area of concern is over northern Kentucky where an isolated shower could develop later this afternoon, though boundary layer forcing is lacking vs. further north. Thus, have kept forecast dry here and will monitor visible satellite for towering cumulus, and may amend forecast to a small rain chance should expected cumulus field become agitated with diurnal instability. Otherwise, modest tweaks to sky/wind/temps for the day and overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Weak frontal boundary that drops into central Ohio this afternoon will wash out tonight. Any isold storms that develop will quickly dissipate with loss of heating due to lack of forcing. Light wind flow combined with abundant low level moisture will lead to patchy fog development overnight. Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s. Shortwave ridge to pass east across the region Wednesday. Warm front convective development to occur to our west Wednesday. Instability is marginal and with best lift/moisture to our west, have limited pops to slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Warm temperatures to continue with Wednesdays highs in the mid and upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Models are trending a bit slower with respect to a cold front approaching from the west Wednesday night, so backed off on timing of arrival compared to Superblend. Still kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night, spreading from west to east. Showers and storms will be likely Thursday with frontal passage. Low threat for severe thunderstorms will exist Thursday in an environment featuring ample wind shear and adequate instability. Precip chances diminish Thursday night and Friday as the front travels east of the area. For Saturday, latest ECMWF and GFS show a short wave trough pushing in from the west with limited moisture and ill-defined surface features. Went with slight chance pops for thunderstorms. On Sunday through Monday, models indicate surface high pressure followed by a ridge building aloft. This weather regime will exhibit very little forcing or deep moisture, while surface temperatures and humidity increase in the return flow around the high. Went with a dry forecast for this period. Temperatures start warm Thursday just ahead of the cold front, with high reaching the mid and upper 80s. Highs are forecast to slip into the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday under clouds, precip, and modest cold advection. A rebound back to the upper 80s is indicated for Sunday and Monday due to insolation and warm advection. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid and high level cloudiness across the southeast area associated with departing weak upper level disturbance. A moist low level and light winds has lead to fog development this morning, especially across the I-71 corridor. Moisture is shallow so visibilities will improve quickly this morning. A weak front will drop down from the northwest through this afternoon which could lead to an isolated shower/thunderstorm across the north. Expect main threat to remain north of the TAF sites, so have omitted any mention of thunderstorms. In moist airmass expect widespread fog development again tonight. Have visibilities in IFR category at fog prone KILN and KLUK locations. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.