Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 402 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM SATURDAY SO EXPECT HIGHS PERHAPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SOUTH. A 30-40 KNOT 925 MB JET WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WAA PATTERN AND SOME CLOUDS COULD KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY MIXING THOSE WINDS DOWN. THAT BEING SAID...STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TODAY. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ARE FAIRLY DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 PERCENT...SO THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN ALLOWING FOR THE MIXING DOWN OF DRIER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AM ONLY GETTING RHS DOWN INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING AND MENTION THE ENHANCED RISK IN AN SPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE REST OF OUR FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT AND CLOUDS THICKENING UP...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDER MENTION TO JUST A CHANCE WITH OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS. EXPECT ANY THUNDER CHANCE TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL PCPN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWS THEN DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTH. OBVIOUSLY GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A HALF INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FA. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE NAM ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD GIVEN THE APRIL SUN...BUT WILL STILL NUDGE DOWN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE ONLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS SCENARIO WHERE THE EURO IS DRY. HPC HAS FAVORED THE MORE ACTIVE GFS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME IN ITS GRAPHIC BUT DOES NOT NOTE ANY ELEVATED CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THEIR FORECAST. OPTED TO LEAN WETTER TOWARDS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW WARMING THE OHIO VALLEY A LITTLE EACH DAY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY UNDER 12 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. AFTER SUNRISE...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE...GUSTING OVER 25 KT BY THE LATE MORNING...AND JUST OVER 30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...LATTO

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