Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252004 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 404 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE COOL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...AIDED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE LESS CLOUD COVER FARTHER FROM MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL SHOW DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS CU THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID 50S IN URBAN LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FA WHEN ANOTHER BATCH OF PVA IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THURSDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND SOLAR RADIATION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 25.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND THE GEFS MEAN. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY HOWEVER AS ERIKA COMES INTO THE PICTURE. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. VARIOUS RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THEY TRY TO GET A HANDLE ON ERIKA`S TRACK. THE 12Z GFS MORPHS THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW THAT RETROGRADES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHEREAS ITS 06Z RUN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH SHEARS OUT THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDE SPREAD...GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS FOR MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THEIR SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON DEVELOPING A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING A RETURN TO SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A S/W ROTATING AROUND A LARGE LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WAS RESULTING IN VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET ACRS THE TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS MAY THIN SOME AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A STRONGER S/W IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED VFR CLOUDS INTO WED. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK. IF CLOUDS STAY SCATTERED FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION THEN FOG WILL BE LKLY. EXPECT THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP AND THEN IMPROVE AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THEN AT 10 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...AR

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