Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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089 FXUS61 KILN 280558 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly build in tonight. A frontal boundary will develop into the region late Friday and linger near the area into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. Winds will continue to decrease overnight and river valley fog will be possible. Mid clouds will move into the region late in the overnight hours. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight with lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure will move off to the east Friday morning. An east-west front will begin to develop into the southwest counties in the afternoon. This front will become sharper and lift into the northern part of the forecast area Friday night. Some showers may develop in western counties before the end of the day. But activity will increase overnight as mid level short wave moves through southwest flow which will induce a low level jet, enhancing lift. Models are spreading elevated instability across the region which could be sufficient for some severe storms with large hail. In addition, there is a risk of heavy rainfall. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on details. Given model differences, forecast has leaned quite a bit on the SREF. Forecast temperatures are on the warmer side of guidance. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... While the models agree that there will be a frontal boundary stretched across the region on Saturday, there remains to differences in the placement and the timing of convection. Majority of the models have the front and the pcpn running from central Indiana northeast into northwest Ohio as dawn breaks on Saturday. As sfc low move ne up the front in the ne TX and ern OK, the front buckles northward on Saturday, allowing the srn edge of the pcpn work also work northward. With the region split by the front, there will be a wide range in temperatures. Highs in the se will push into the mid 80s, while locations in the nw will remain in the mid to upper 60s. The region will be warm sectored on Sunday. An isolated storm will be possible in the heating. Highs on Sunday will push into the 80s. For Sunday night into Monday an ejecting H5 low will push a strong cold front ewd up the Ohio Valley. Line of convection will reach the fa late Sunday night and may be lingering in the eastern counties at the beginning of Monday. Behind the front, much colder air will work into the region. The GFS is the wettest with the wrap around moisture. Ran a blend of the PoPs for the middle of the week by carry low chance PoPs. Highs will be in the 60s. By the end of the week, temperatures another cutoff low pushes another round of pcpn east of the Mississippi. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Period starts dry under weak high pressure giving mainly clear skies. Conditions will deteriorate slowly after 12z as a warm front develops. Clouds will thicken and lower while ceilings remain VFR, and showers may occur by evening at western sites in increasing moisture and lift associated with the warm front. MVFR conditions may eventually accompany the showers late in the forecast period as the boundary layer nears saturation. Kept thunder out for now due to isolated nature. Surface winds from the southeast will stay under 10 knots during the early part of the forecast. Speeds around 10 knots out of the south will be possible late in the forecast with the showers. Wind shear is expected to develop for a few hours late in the forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms are possible late Friday night into Saturday and then again Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Sunday into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Coniglio

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