Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 242110
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
510 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening with a warm and unstable
airmass in place. Additional thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday as a cold front approaches the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
An unstable airmass has allowed for some thunderstorm development
this afternoon. This has been primarily confined to northern
portions of the region north of Interstate 70, however isolated
thunderstorms have also been present south of this area. Expect
this trend to continue through early this evening before
dissipating. Dropped a few counties from the heat advisory where
precipitation has dropped the temperature.
Additional thunderstorms will approach the region overnight
however this activity will be on a weakening trend as it
approaches. Due to this have limited precipitation chances to the
slight chance category across most of the area and chance category
across the north.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity will continue for Monday. Heat index values will
be near 100 again with a better chance for this across southern
portions of the region. Continued the heat advisory and excessive
heat warning across southern portions of the region for Monday.
A cold front will move through on Monday. There has been some
variability with how much convection will develop with this
feature, however given airmass in place believe that preciptiation
chances will be likely across the southern portions of the
forecast area by late in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
few of these storms may reach severe limits with damaging winds
the primary threat.
Boundary will hold up across southern portions of the area and
therefore linger preciptiation chances across the far south
through Tuesday night. With CAA across the northern portions of
the forecast area on Tuesday believe cu will develop during the
day. Even with the CAA expect high temperatures on Tuesday to be
in the middle to upper 80s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stationary frontal boundary looks to be positioned along or just
south of the Ohio River Wednesday. Boundary will divide a very moist
air mass to the south from a relatively drier air mass to the north.
Will continue with chance pops for thunderstorms close to and south
of the front on Wednesday.
Boundary will lift north as a warm front late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will allow precipitable water values to increase
northward, placing the CWA back in a very moist environment for
Models show a shortwave approaching late Thursday or Thursday night.
Timing is still somewhat in question, but there is decent consensus
on the track which will bring it across the Ohio Valley. Therefore,
begin to increase pops for Thursday afternoon and will continue
chance pops into Thursday night for possible influence from
Additional shortwaves may affect the Ohio Valley Friday through
Saturday. Details associated with the shortwaves (such as
track/timing/strength) are in question and will need to be resolved
with time. But the potential for shortwaves combined with a warm
moist air mass means that chance pops for convection will continue
through at least Saturday. Eventually, a cold front may move through
and this could occur late Saturday into Sunday but confidence is low
on the timing of the frontal passage.
Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above
average values through the long term.
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR Cu field has developed this afternoon as remnants of an MCS
continue to track through the Great Lakes region. A few -SHRA/TS have
popped across west-central and central Ohio this afternoon given
high instby environment. Expect this activity should stay north of
the terminals, so have kept sites dry through today.
For this evening, convection will likely develop across parts of
northern IL/IN and track SE. CAMs continue to indicate this
activity will weaken as it moves into central Indiana and
potentially extreme western Ohio. With instby waning after 02z
and convection moving away from primary forcing, it seems likely
that activity will dissipate before potentially affecting western
TAF sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY. Therefore, have kept dry trend
through 06z despite uncertainty regarding exact convective
Main concern overnight will be potential for BR to form again,
especially for KLUK and KILN. Although conditions do not appear
to be ideal for widespread BR development across the region, MVFR
VSBYs are once again possible.
West-southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected Monday as a
cold front drifts south through area. With high instby, plenty of
moisture, and a source for lift, expect that SHRA/TS will develop
across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There exists
uncertainty on exact timing and location of potential initiation,
so have handled this with a VCTS at all sites starting at 16z
(although initiation may be end up occurring after 18z Monday).
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and again
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ034-035-042-
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ073-074-078>082-088.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ061.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for INZ075-080.