Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 080825 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLIDE TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE WILL CROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED EXPECTATION OF THE AREA OF PRECIP OVER ILLINOIS TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONT AND REACH THE CWA AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF IT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPROUT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CLOUD SHIELD...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. SOME MID 80S MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE LONGER TO OVERSPREAD AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH IN MARGINALLY WARMER AIR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WILL EXHIBIT A RAPID REDUCTION IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. BY 6Z...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER...AND CONTINUE TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS. FLOW NEVER TURNS WESTERLY UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NICELY INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH LONG WAVE TROF SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AT MID WEEK. INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO ILN/S FA IN THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER IN AFTN WITH SECONDARY FRONT NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT INDICATION THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF AND EMBEDDED WEAK S/W...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLD POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY AND OVERALL DRIER MODEL SOLN TRENDS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ECMWF SOLN DEVELOPING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN DUE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. GFS SOLN IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FASTER MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM NW RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE NEXT MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN A LTL BELOW NORMAL NEXT MONDAY WITH PCPN AND FROPA. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TAFS ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING OF MCS OUT OVER MISSOURI. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO SWING IT E UP THE OHIO RIVER REACHING THE SOUTHERN TAFS AROUND 12Z. SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT GETS THIS FAR E. WILL LEAN TOWARDS CONSENSUS AND WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE SRN TAFS AROUND 12Z. BY AFTERNOON...CDFNT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FNT AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LINES UP ACROSS THE TAFS. CONTINUED WITH VCTS/CB FOR THE AFTN CONVECTION UNTIL WE SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AS THIS MIGHT AFFECT LATER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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