Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200432 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1232 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will persist until a cold front moves through the area Saturday night. High pressure building in for the first half of the week will bring cooler and drier weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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In the enhanced short term update, have gone mostly clear for the remainder of the night, except in the far sw cwfa, where some stratus/stratocumlus type clouds may advect and/or develop late. This also required lowering temperatures a little with lows mostly in the mid and upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Weak disturbance lifting northeast across the region will aid in development of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. This will track across the region through the day. Expect a lull in activity before storms associated with an approaching cold front start to affect the forecast area. Convection will be most vigorous with greatest coverage Saturday evening in the western counties and then weaken as it tracks across the area through the night. Some question how much instability will be available in the evening and whether that will be sufficient for some strong to severe storms. But precipitable water will be increasing to over 2 inches again which will be favorable for storms to produce locally heavy rainfall. Stayed on the warmer side of guidance for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will be exiting the area at the start of the long term period. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday. With cold air advection expect cu to develop for the daytime hours on Sunday. Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend from Monday through Wednesday. A frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday into Friday allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Due to model run to run inconsistencies limited precipitation chances to the chance category at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed across the TAF sites this evening and will continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours as daytime heating is lost. Overnight, another round of stratus is expected to develop as GFS and NAM forecast soundings show low level saturation occurring just before sunrise tomorrow morning. RAP low level RH also indicates this as values approach 95% across the southern TAF sites. SREF cig probs tend to favor more towards the western TAF sites. Have brought in low clouds to all TAF sites given near equal low level RH values forecasted. During the day Saturday a potent upper level system will approach from the west bringing an upper level disturbance across the TAF sites Saturday afternoon into evening. PWATs on the GFS and NAM rise to around 1.90" with k indicies rising into the mid 30s. Thanks to the upper level lift, instability, and total column moisture have added the mention of thunder into the TAFs. At the end of the TAF period a cold front will approach from the west keeping the chance of rain in the TAFs until the end of the issuance. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines

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