Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop into the area tonight and lift back north Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will cross the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Fair weather cu will dissipate relatively quickly later this afternoon. Temperatures are on their way to forecast highs in the 80-83 degree range and update this early afternoon was purely cosmetic.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A short wave pivoting through the Great Lakes will push a weak cold front south into the forecast area tonight. Looks like better forcing will move off to the east by the time the front makes into the area. But still cannot rule out a bit of activity along and ahead of the boundary. Lighter winds and less clouds should result in slightly lower temperatures in southeast counties tonight with warmer readings in the Miami Valley. It looks like the front will stall near the I-70 corridor and remain in that vicinity through Wednesday. Little if any upper support, but boundary could be enough of a focus for some showers or thunderstorms. Low chance PoPs seems sufficient. Guidance blend looked good for highs across the southern counties but shaded closer to slightly cooler guidance in the north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Period begins with upper trough pushing east of the area with region under NW flow aloft with departing weak surface boundary leaving dry Wednesday night conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures. The focus of late week weather will be the positioning of the tropical system off the SE coast of TX and just how far north the remnants of this system will reach. Prior to main push of tropical remains, a weak shortwave skirts through the lower great lakes and brings chance for scattered convection during the day on Thursday in the north, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the far south with the Gulf system lifting into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys. GFS/GFS ENS MEAN and ECMWF are all coming into a little better agreement with placement and timing of the energy from the tropical remains reaching to the southern periphery of forecast area, with greatest confidence of precipitation especially late Friday into Saturday. Concern of heavy rain possible across the far southern forecast area with the advancement of this system. The southern system will begin to push eastward on Saturday with the advancement of a broad upper trough again pushing through the Great Lakes. A lull in the precipitation while the region is between these 2 systems Saturday night, with increasing chances in advance of the Great Lakes system Sunday into Sunday night, with a more zonal pattern and drier conditions for the beginning of next work week. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions will be found across the region. Some isolated weak shower activity may occur overnight from the northwest and exit central Ohio towards daybreak, but the feature driving this is the passage of an upper level shortwave well north of the area in the Great Lakes region. Any activity that does make it will be coming from a relatively high base and remain VFR even if it hits an airport directly. With this in mind, did not include VFR showers for a longer period or split TAFs with a new grouping to include them. When/if they develop along the I-70 corridor, an amendment would be the best course of action. West winds 10-14kt will become slack overnight and turn more southerly, and pick back up to the 8-10kt range tomorrow. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Saturday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...Franks

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