Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271721 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 121 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SOME CU TO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN BUT WITH 8H TEMPS A LTL WARMER EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE A LTL WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROF SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO A POSITION CENTERED OVER SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 5000 FEET TDA. THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT KCVG...KLCK AND KDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLUK AND KILN. FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...AR

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