Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 200432
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1232 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
Warm and humid conditions will persist until a cold front moves
through the area Saturday night. High pressure building in for the
first half of the week will bring cooler and drier weather.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --In the enhanced short term update, have gone mostly clear for the
remainder of the night, except in the far sw cwfa, where some
stratus/stratocumlus type clouds may advect and/or develop late.
This also required lowering temperatures a little with lows mostly
in the mid and upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Weak disturbance lifting northeast across the region will aid in
development of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. This will
track across the region through the day. Expect a lull in activity
before storms associated with an approaching cold front start to
affect the forecast area. Convection will be most vigorous with
greatest coverage Saturday evening in the western counties and
then weaken as it tracks across the area through the night. Some
question how much instability will be available in the evening and
whether that will be sufficient for some strong to severe storms.
But precipitable water will be increasing to over 2 inches again
which will be favorable for storms to produce locally heavy
rainfall. Stayed on the warmer side of guidance for temperatures.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be exiting the area at the start of the long term
period. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday. With
cold air advection expect cu to develop for the daytime hours on
Sunday. Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend from Monday
through Wednesday. A frontal boundary will approach the region
Thursday into Friday allowing for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Due to model run to run
inconsistencies limited precipitation chances to the chance category
at this time.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed across the TAF
sites this evening and will continue to dissipate over the next
couple of hours as daytime heating is lost. Overnight, another
round of stratus is expected to develop as GFS and NAM forecast
soundings show low level saturation occurring just before sunrise
tomorrow morning. RAP low level RH also indicates this as values
approach 95% across the southern TAF sites. SREF cig probs tend
to favor more towards the western TAF sites. Have brought in low
clouds to all TAF sites given near equal low level RH values
During the day Saturday a potent upper level system will approach
from the west bringing an upper level disturbance across the TAF
sites Saturday afternoon into evening. PWATs on the GFS and NAM
rise to around 1.90" with k indicies rising into the mid 30s.
Thanks to the upper level lift, instability, and total column
moisture have added the mention of thunder into the TAFs. At the
end of the TAF period a cold front will approach from the west
keeping the chance of rain in the TAFs until the end of the
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning.