Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 201803
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
203 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today.
The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air
will move into the area for the start of the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level shortwave over the mid/upr MS Valley to sharpen up and
shift east through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley over the next 24
hours. Associated surface wave over western KY to lift northeast
through the Ohio Valley this aftn to a position over Western PA
by evening. As the wave moves in precipitation will become
Marginal instby to develop over ILN/s se counties where a window
for potential severe weather will exist this afternoon. Damaging
winds and large hail are the main threats. Heavy rain and flooding
is also possible.
A wide range of temperatures today with the low bisecting the
area. Highs will range from near 60 nw to the upper 70s southeast.
An area of low pressure will move across the region
today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To
the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging
winds and hail will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well
especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of
As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into
the region and winds will pick up.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into
Friday. This will linger precipitation around the region through
this time before gradually moving it out. In addition gusty winds
will also be present during this time. A few lake effect rain
showers will be possible Friday evening as well.
Some clouds and winds will be present Friday night so although
temperatures will drop into the 30s across the area believe that
frost will be minimal. Due to this did not include in the forecast
at this time.
Temperatures will only be in the low to mid 50s Friday and
Saturday. Went close to guidance for temperatures.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday another shortwave will dive south and rotate around the
upper level low over Quebec with a weak surface cold front pushing
through the area Monday morning. The ECMWF is more progressive
with the shortwave and surface cold front while the CMC and GFS is
about 6 - 12 hours slower. Either way the better upper level
forcing (PVA) all slides east of the area with PWATs remaining
around or below 0.75". Due to the mentioned above have kept the
area dry Monday into Tuesday. As of now the cold front also looks
rather weak across our area. The upper level trough axis remains
east of the region keeping the heart of the coldest air east as
well. Towards the end of the long term mid-level heights will
start to rise across Ohio (576-580 dam). This will equate to
rising high temperatures and above normal temperatures Tuesday
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A wave of low pressure will lift northeast from the mid MS VLY
through the Ohio Valley today. Widespread rain showers will
overspread all TAF sites this afternoon with prevailing MVFR
conditions and occasional IFR conditions.
The low pressure system and associated cold front will progress
east during the late afternoon with more precipitation working in
behind the front. Widespread IFR conditions will develop behind
the front. Northwest winds will strengthen and gust at times up to
22 kts. IFR CIGS will prevail through most of the night.
Precipitation will become light overnight before ending toward
sunrise with visibilities improving. Ceilings will lift to MVFR by
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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