Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280739 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 339 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley this morning will offering a continued chance of showers. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week, providing dry weather. Another low pressure system will bring additional chances for rain Thursday and Friday. High pressure will bring with it dry conditions for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid level shortwave trof over Indiana to weaken as it tracks east through the Ohio Valley this morning. Latest radar mosaic shows band of rain showers across portions of western and central Ohio. This pcpn is associated with an axis of 925 mb convergence ahead of the mid level trof. This favorable forcing will pivot southeast through ILN/s FA this morning into the afternoon offering a continued chance of showers. Clouds will hang on through the day with mild highs from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Amplified mid/upper level flow pattern to dominate at mid week. Upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Wednesday ahead of next upper level low developing over the central plains. Surface high pressure will build southeast through the Great Lakes overnight. Moisture in the low level will hang on through most of tonight with only some partial clearing expected in the north. Lows tonight to range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. With mid level ridge building over the region expect to see a decrease in clouds Wednesday morning. This will be followed by an increase in high level clouds late in the day. Temperatures will be a little above normal with highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Upper air pattern will feature a broad ridge to start. The upper ridge will be invaded by a couple of potent upper lows traveling on a westerly flow, triggering surface low development, and resulting in rounds of precipitation. Dry weather under high pressure to start Wednesday night will come to an end Thursday when surface low pressure is forecast to track east toward the area, pushed by a closed upper low. As lift and moisture arrive on the southerly flow ahead of the system, rain showers will become likely by Thursday evening, with thunderstorms possible in an environment containing marginal instability. Kept categorical pops for Thursday night when the low is forecast to be centered over Indiana, placing the ILN area in the most favorable location for widespread precip. Showers are expected to persist Friday as the low progresses to West virginia. High pressure is expected to provide dry weather Saturday and Sunday. The next low is forecast to arrive Monday with a large swath of moisture, producing the likelihood for showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal for the bulk of the period. Highs mainly in the 60s in warm advection Thursday and Friday will be followed by near normal upper 50s Saturday under modest cold advection. Highs will be boosted back up into the 60s Sunday and Monday by warm advection ahead of the second low.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface low over southern Indiana to track east through the Ohio Valley this morning. Showers associated with this feature will push across the TAF sites through the morning. As the low moves through, CIGS and vsbys will drop into MVFR category in the showers and then a period of IFR CIGS. CIGS will gradually improve through the morning with MVFR conditions persisting into the afternoon hours. Variable winds will become north up to 10 kts this morning and continue through the day. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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