Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240002 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 702 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED REGIME. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE. WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN ACTIVITY. ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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