Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171757 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1257 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will affect the area today. Drier weather is forecast Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Another low pressure system will bring showers back into the region late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cdfnt is pushing through the Whitewater valley into the Miami Valley attm. Upped PoPs with the line of showers along the front to categorical. The line should continue to push east through the fa late this morning, clearing the eastern counties around 18-20Z. Afternoon highs in the upper 50s to around 60, temperatures will slowly cool with fropa on a west wind. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will be moving into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight while low pressure moves slowly through southeast Canada. At the same time, low pressure in the upper atmosphere will travel from southern Lake Michigan to northwest Ohio, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Dry conditions will persist into Thursday when the high is forecast to move to the Appalachians. The next area of low pressure will be arriving from the southwest later on Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers to southern locations by Thursday evening. Temperatures will remain above normal. Highs Wednesday will be reduced into the 40s by cold advection. A rebound to near 50 will occur Thursday due to warm advection in advance of the next low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot rule out a bit of thunder as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cdfnt is in the vicinity of I-71 at the start of the taf period. Some clear spots around the front have allowed the cigs to jump to VFR. However cigs are dropping back to MVFR behind the front. So have a tempo group for the first hour of the tafs to take care of this situation. Cigs will lower as the afternoon progresses and could reach IFR at some spots after 00Z. Meanwhile, an approaching H5 vort will increase the PVA aft 00Z and will give the chance of scattered SHRA. Carried a VCSH at the tafs between 00Z and 12Z. Tafs get into area of NVA tomorrow, so ended the VCSH around 12Z, but time sections are showing that low level moisture will be trapped, thus kept MVFR cigs. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Thursday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday night into Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites

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