Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 652 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. THE BOUNDARY AND LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPR LVL S/WV OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR OUR FAR SE ZONES THIS MORNING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC/TO CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN AS SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTHEAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LEFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS ARE BEING HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW WILL DISSIPATE...AND WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...ANY LINGER SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A LEAD S/WV IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD ACRS OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE APPRECIABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOW END MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA IN THIS PATTERN. WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT THOUGH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTHWEST/COOLER TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS TRYING TO BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SLOW WARMUP IN TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN KY WILL TRACK EAST THRU SOUTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY EAST OF THE TAFS THIS MORNING AND MOVING EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE LO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WITH LCLY IFR CONDS IN THE TAFS CLOSEST TO THE LOW. CONDS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VCSH WILL BE PSBL THIS MORNING IN THE TAFS CLOSEST TO THE LOW AND THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES. PROBABILITY OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOW AND CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR VSBYS OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES TUES MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HAYDU

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