Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191932 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 332 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A FEW SHOWERS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER IN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME CU MOVING IN TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH BEST SURFACE RIDGING OVER NEBRASKA. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS TOMORROW MORNING BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL HAVE TO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 TEMPS HOVER AROUND 5 DEGREES C. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WILL START TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AC AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. A CHANCE OF RAIN THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW REMAINS RATHER ZONAL OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT ALSO AT THIS TIME THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. PWAT VALUES ALSO ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1". THINK LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GENERAL TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY (WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST). ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...FORCING AND MOISTURE DO NOT LOOK APPRECIABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. MOVING INTO SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW ROTATES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND ALLOWS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARING LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY OUT. WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING OVER CANADA REMAINING FURTHER NORTH (AS THE GFS INDICATES)...THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WOULD BE MUCH GREATER...FORCING MOST OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA (AND LIKELY INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL). A MORE SUBDUED RIDGE (AS SEEN ON THE ECMWF) WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION (ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN AT FIRST) TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE REGION. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE THUS STILL IN QUESTION...BY MONDAY IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SETUP IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCT-BKN CU FIELD HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS ALSO BEEN ERODING ON THE LEADING EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME DRIER AIR. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME FEW-SCT CU EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT KDAY. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF KDAY SO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KDAY TOWARD THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO THINK ANY PREVAILING CIG WILL BE VFR. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD FIELD BECOMING MORE DIURNAL...EXPECT CLEARING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL

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