Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 010023
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
723 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
A cold front will move east of the area this evening. Cyclonic
flow will bring cool, mainly cloudy conditions through Friday.
High pressure will build in early in the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cold front will continue across the forecast area late this
afternoon and be east of the area this evening. A band of showers
has developed along and behind the front. Not clear whether this
will be measurable or not, so have kept PoPs in the chance
category. There may be a brief break in the clouds behind the
precipitation, but then additional cloud cover will spread in
overnight. Forecast lows fall within the MOS guidance envelope.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the
period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper
flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist
through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion,
which should result in clouds predominating. Thus highs will be
below normal with a limited diurnal range Thursday night. As high
pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally
diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will start out the long term on Saturday. A system
approaches Saturday night into Sunday. There is a northern and
southern component to this system and models differ on how much
phasing between these two components there will be. Trends are
towards less phasing which would be a little cooler with temperatures
as the warmer air with the southern system would not be drawn up
into the region as much. It would also be more of a quicker lighter
shot of precipitation than drawing up the southern moisture. Went
with the trend towards less phasing, cooler solution, with more rain
and snow mix of precipitation. Precipitation will move out of the
region Sunday night.
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system
begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air
with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect
rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night.
Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and
with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until
there is greater continuity and forecast confidence.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Band of showers is currently pushing through the eastern TAF
sites in association with a surface cold front. Right behind the
showers there is some clearing but this will be transient as low
level moisture rotating around the surface low is already
approaching the western TAF sites. The MVFR cigs will likely be
staying around through the TAF issuance and even into Saturday
morning as the low level moisture gets trapped underneath the
inversion. The question remains on whether CVG/ LUK will go MVFR
or clouds will remain VFR. The highest probability for MVFR cigs
will be across the northern TAF sites (closer to the cyclonic
flow) with probabilities decreasing as you head further south. High
res models in general have had trouble catching on to the wrap
around moisture and have trended more pessimistic in the TAFs.
Keeping the TAFs MVFR is further supported by NAM and GFS forecast
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.
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