Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162050 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 350 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Friday. A strong low pressure system will approach the region Friday night and move through Saturday into Saturday evening. Cooler and drier conditions will then be in place for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Extensive cloud cover continues to be in place with winds off of the lake. Winds shift overnight, however some low level moisture will remain trapped and keep a decent amount of clouds around for most of the night before decreasing the cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight will be dependent on how quickly cloud cover decreases. Went close to guidance at this time for low temperatures with lows in the 20s across most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Warm air advection on Friday will allow for temperatures to climb into the 50s across the region. Dry conditions will be in place with high pressure on Friday. Precipitation is expected to hold off until Friday night as a strong low pressure system begins to approach the region. Any instability looks to hold off until the daytime hours on Saturday and therefore have thunder mention out of the forecast for Friday night. Winds will also begin to pick up Friday night as the system approaches with some wind gusts around 30 mph possible by the end of the short term. Expect the low temperature Friday night to occur early and as the southerly flow increases Friday night expect to see temperature rises through the overnight hours.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A strong cold front is forecast to push quickly east across the region through the day on Saturday. There are still some timing differences between the 12Z models, likely due to the fast movement of the front. The CMC is several hours faster than the slower ECMWF with the NAM and GFS in between but closer to the ECMWF. Good isentropic lift will be in place across the area Saturday morning in strong southerly flow and WAA as a 50-60 knot 850 mb jet slowly works across the region. This will lead to widespread shower activity Friday morning, especially across northern portions of our area where the lift should be maximized. Some weak instabilities are also forecast to advect up into our area ahead of the front with both the NAM and GFS showing a narrow axis of ML capes working across our area in the afternoon with several of the SREF and GEFS members also indicating this. As a result, will hang on to a slight chance of thunder and given the strength of the wind fields, a lower end severe threat will exist along and ahead of the front from late morning into mid to possibly late afternoon. Breezy conditions are also expected given the fairly tight pressure gradient but gusts may be limited somewhat by the moist/waa pattern. However, as the cold front moves through and we get into the better CAA, gradient winds should pick up and become a bit more gusty later Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Pcpn should generally taper off as we head through Saturday night, but a few showers may persist as some low level moisture lingers, especially across the north. As the cooler air moves in, any lingering showers will transition over to snow Saturday night. A secondary short wave will pivot down across the southern Great Lakes through the day on Sunday. Deeper moisture remains limited but suppose this could be enough for a few snow showers, again mainly across the north. Highs on Sunday will only be in the mid to upper 30s. A series of weaker short waves will then work east across the region through mid to late next week. However, it looks like we stay dry enough to keep pops out of the remainder of the forecast. Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Although brief periods of VFR will be possible, expect generally MVFR cigs across the TAF sites through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected to return to the region during the day on Friday. Vsbys may be reduced to IFR conditions at the more favorable KLUK overnight. There are some indications that MVFR vsbys will be possible at the other area TAF sites, however with cloud cover decided to leave out at this time. OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday evening. Gusty winds will be present on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Novak

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