Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010023 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 723 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the area this evening. Cyclonic flow will bring cool, mainly cloudy conditions through Friday. High pressure will build in early in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Cold front will continue across the forecast area late this afternoon and be east of the area this evening. A band of showers has developed along and behind the front. Not clear whether this will be measurable or not, so have kept PoPs in the chance category. There may be a brief break in the clouds behind the precipitation, but then additional cloud cover will spread in overnight. Forecast lows fall within the MOS guidance envelope. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion, which should result in clouds predominating. Thus highs will be below normal with a limited diurnal range Thursday night. As high pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will start out the long term on Saturday. A system approaches Saturday night into Sunday. There is a northern and southern component to this system and models differ on how much phasing between these two components there will be. Trends are towards less phasing which would be a little cooler with temperatures as the warmer air with the southern system would not be drawn up into the region as much. It would also be more of a quicker lighter shot of precipitation than drawing up the southern moisture. Went with the trend towards less phasing, cooler solution, with more rain and snow mix of precipitation. Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night. Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until there is greater continuity and forecast confidence. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Band of showers is currently pushing through the eastern TAF sites in association with a surface cold front. Right behind the showers there is some clearing but this will be transient as low level moisture rotating around the surface low is already approaching the western TAF sites. The MVFR cigs will likely be staying around through the TAF issuance and even into Saturday morning as the low level moisture gets trapped underneath the inversion. The question remains on whether CVG/ LUK will go MVFR or clouds will remain VFR. The highest probability for MVFR cigs will be across the northern TAF sites (closer to the cyclonic flow) with probabilities decreasing as you head further south. High res models in general have had trouble catching on to the wrap around moisture and have trended more pessimistic in the TAFs. Keeping the TAFs MVFR is further supported by NAM and GFS forecast soundings. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines

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