Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301757 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1257 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTING THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LEVEL TROF TO PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE AND E WILL DIMINISH AND COME TO AN END THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WAS RESULTED IN SOME FLURRIES WILL ALSO COME TO AN END AS FLOW BACKS TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...PROVIDING INCREASING SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR PROBLEMATIC FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXIT ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONT DEVELOP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATE AS IT GETS LIFTED WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OF THE WARM FRONT. VERY LITTLE TO NOTE AT H5 BUT THE H8 LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN A GOOD BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS...LIKELY SKIRTING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE PRECIP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL BE ALL SNOW. SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW MIX REMAINS IN HIGH QUESTION BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF BOTH. WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR A WEDGE OF COUNTIES SURROUNDING DAYTON FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 24 HOUR CRITERIA OF 8" AND 6" FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH OF CINCINNATI APPEAR TO BE A REALISTIC ESTIMATION OF WHAT TO EXPECT. BEING THAT FAR OUT IN TIME AND WITH THE MODELS STILL WAFFLING BETWEEN A WARMER NORTHERN STORM /NAM/ AND A COLDER YET DRIER SOUTHERN LOW TRACK /CANADIAN/...THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH COMBINING THE GFS AND EUROPEAN APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE CONSENSUS. HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PROLONGED SNOWFALL EVENT WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6" NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...TOPPING 9" IN SPOTS AROUND METRO DAYTON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR INDIANA COUNTIES AND SPREAD EAST...REMAINING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FOR A GOOD BIT DURING THE DAY FOR MANY KENTUCKY COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM COOLS AND SWEEPS THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO EKE OUT A SOLID 2-4" FOR KENTUCKY COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME...A SWATH OF 8" IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ACCRUE OVER A 24-30 HOUR TIME FRAME WHICH MAY PRECLUDE WATCH AND WARNING HEADLINES. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THAT A SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR A LONGER PERIOD WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CUT EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS THAT ARE AROUND 6". THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH LEEWAY FOR THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO MOVE AROUND TO ACCURATELY SAY THAT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE SOLID NUMBERS BUT THEY SHOULD ALERT THE REGION THAT ADVERSE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ANY RAIN WILL DEFINITELY CHANGE TO SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM THAT MUCH FROM MONDAY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GO BELOW ZERO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE IN THE COLDEST AIR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS TRIES TO SPREAD ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY MID WEEK. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO COLD VALUES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COLD FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WAS RESULTING IN VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT KCMH/KLCK COULD DEVELOP AN MVFR CIG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN THE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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