Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 172251 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 551 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH. IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 1200 AND 2200 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A SLIGHT LIFTING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF EROSION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST COULD WORK INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA OVERNIGHT...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS EROSION WILL SLOW OR STOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WNW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS TOMORROW. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS TO AVIATION. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HATZOS

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