Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 252057 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 457 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT JUST TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 71 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS IT WILL MAKE IT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS BEING OBSERVED...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 70 OR ABOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO/PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHILE LOCATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA REMAIN IN THE 50S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CWA REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THERE. SHOWERS START TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA/TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING...AND PER MODELS/GUIDANCE EXPAND EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF/SREFS FOR POPS OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW LOW PRESSURE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. LOW WOULD WIND UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/TRACK OF THE LOW WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH WHERE WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITIES HINT AT MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THUNDER. CAN/T RULE OUT A LOCALLY STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ENOUGH WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. REST OF THE CWA HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE DAYTIME UNTIL A BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN AND CHANGES ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OVER TO SNOW. ONE SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCEMENT THEN OCCURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THERE MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMA FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY...SUGGESTING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE OFFING ON SATURDAY. THE KEY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS /STRATOCUMULUS/ AND IF A LARGER CLOUD FIELD IS SLOWER TO ERODE ON SATURDAY WE COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY MAKE THIS TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE. EITHER WAY...A VERY CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS STUBBORNLY GIVING WAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF CLEARING DOESN/T OCCUR DURING THE DAY...IT MOST CERTAINLY WILL AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO. SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION. SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CDFNT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AND IS IN THE VICINITY OF I-71 AT TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CIGS THAT WAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO LATE AFTN. AT KDAY THE MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BEFORE ALSO SCATTERING OUT BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LAY DOWN AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. TAFS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. H5 ENERGY LIFTING N AHEAD OF A H5 TROF WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO PUSH RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE SRN TAFS AROUND 06Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR AS THIS OCCURS. THE PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAFS BY 09Z. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE SRN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCTS THUNDER AT CVG/LUK/ILN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO IFR BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AS SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. AS SFC LOW WORKS OFF TO THE E AFT 12Z...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE RAIN MIGHT MIX WITH SNOW AT KDAY. THINK THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE QUICK SO LEFT THE PCPN AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...SITES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.