Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 041143 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 643 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO BRING COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE WEST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE EVIDENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING IN THE WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DISTURBANCE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING MAY INVADE WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER AIR WILL START TO CIRCULATE IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ON A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A LONG WAVE 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO OCCUR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A DRY AIRMASS AND LITTLE FORCING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR VERY MUCH CLOUD FORMATION...LEAVING MOST SKY COVER TO BE COMPRISED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL FORM IN PVA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 FRIDAY...THEN UP TO THE MID 40S SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND COLD AIR FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK TROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. MILDER TEMPS RETURN FOR WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL WINTER REGIME FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNT ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAKER PRESENTATION FROM ECMWF. WILL TAKE A BLEND AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN AT ONSET ON MONDAY IN THE EAST PARTS OF FCST AREA BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP AS SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE THRU PERIOD. TRICKY CALL ON MONDAY BUT BELIEVE GUIDANCE RUNNING TO WARM FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IF FASTER ECMWF PLAYS OUT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COLDEST OF DAYS AND MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND THEN BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...AR

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