Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210522 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 122 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight as a cold front pushes east across the region. The front will stall out to our south on Friday before lifting back to the north with an upper level disturbance. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers Friday night into Saturday. A cooler airmass will settle into the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cold front is pushing into the western CWA this evening with showers and thunderstorms along the front. The cold front will push through the CWA Friday morning and clear the CWA just after sunrise. During the day Friday clouds will hang around and transition from lower clouds to more of a mid to upper level deck. High temperatures Friday will be in the mid 60s and slightly held back due to clouds with 850 mb temperatures around 5 degrees C. Prev Discussion-> Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along the pre frontal boundary moving across Indiana. MLCapes across that area are in the 500-1000 J/kg range but they do drop off some to the east across our area. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how well this activity will maintain its strength as it moves into our area. This initial wave of showers may also help stabilize the airmass a bit which could also results in some question as to the strength of the secondary batch of storms developing across eastern Illinois as they move eastward. At the moment, deep layer shear is marginal across our area with 0-6 km values in the 20-25 knot range. This is forecast to increase from the northwest between 21Z-03Z as some better upper level energy works into our area. This will also be accompanied by some cooler air aloft which could also aid in some enhancement to the instability. Therefore, some uncertainty exists in regard to the severe threat as we head through late afternoon and into the early evening hours. It still seems that the best threat will be across our northwest where the better deep layer shear will develop. With some decent mixing across the area this afternoon, dcapes have pushed up close to 1000 J/kg across parts of our area so if we are able to get some stronger storms, damaging wind appears to be the primary threat. The storms should be fairly progressive but PWs do push up to around 1.5 inches through early evening. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms with some localized flooding possible with training storms. The cold front will push east across the area later tonight with pcpn tapering off from the northwest overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The front will continue to move off to the south through the day on Friday with high pressure trying to work in from the north. Suppose we could see a few lingering showers across our far south into Friday morning but for the most part expect dry conditions. Cooler air filtering in behind the front will lead to more seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the mid and upper 60s in the southeast. A developing surface wave will help the boundary to begin to lift back to the north Friday night. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers across our south through the night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Extensive low pressure tracking across Tennessee along a slow moving frontal boundary will bring showers Saturday. Southern locations should see the bulk of showers, and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible there as well in an environment containing elevated instability. Rain chances will gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday as the system works east. Weak high pressure is forecast to bring dry conditions Monday into Tuesday. A wave of low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes may result in a few more showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional showers could affect mainly northern locations Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will start below normal for Saturday, with highs in the mid 50s limited by clouds, precip, and cold advection on a northeast low level flow. A rebound to near normal upper 60s can be expected by Monday due to warm advection and reduced cloud cover, with further warm advection making above normal 70s probable Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A few showers (perhaps with brief MVFR ceilings) may persist at the TAF sites for another few hours. After that, drier conditions are expected to move into the region, with VFR ceilings and WNW winds. These conditions will likely continue through most of the day on Friday, with mostly mid/high clouds, and northwest winds of around 10 knots. On Friday night, clouds will thicken from south to north, as chances for precipitation gradually begin to increase. Forecast confidence for Friday night into Saturday is very low, with regards to specific precipitation timing, so there may need to be changes to what is currently in the TAFs as it becomes more clear when (or if) rain ends up forecast to move into the area. It does appear that rain is more likely to occur at the southern TAF sites (CVG/LUK) through this time period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday with rain.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/JGL NEAR TERM...Haines/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.