Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210824 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 424 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region one more day as a cold front moves east through the region today. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Biggest question with todays forecast may be the coverage of storms at daybreak this morning. The consensus of the models is to take the area of convection in central KY northeast into south central Ohio. Based on the current radar loop, if the pcpn does work east in the next couple of hours, it will be up into Central Ohio as well. So started today off with high PoPs in the east. Cdfnt will slowly move up the Ohio Valley today as H5 low spins in the nrn Plains. The atmosphere is marginally unstable along with sheer. So expect tstms to develop during the morning, but chance of severe is very low. With pw still high, there could be some periods of heavy rain. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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A chance of pcpn will linger in the eastern counties early tonight before pushing ewd. Temperatures will cool to the lower 50s in the west to mid 50s in the extreme ern counties. High pressure will build across the fa Monday bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach only the lower 70s, with a few spots staying in the upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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By Monday night the new run of the models have already started to diverge. The NAM is the outlier as it brings a sfc low up the Appalachians spreading pcpn into the se counties. The other models keep this pcpn well south of the region. Therefore kept Monday night dry. The H5 low over the wrn Great Lakes splits and a low drops south. Pcpn develops ahead of the energy on Tuesday, mainly in the west. Models have forced a shift in the period of highest PoPs, now focused mainly on Wednesday. There has also been a general trend slower with the eastward progression of the upper low, which is unsurprising for closed upper systems in May. PoPs have been held back a little more significantly on Thursday, with slight chances introduced as well for Friday. This system will also result in a period of cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly improving more significantly by Friday (unless the low continues to hang around through the end of the week). Behind the low, though timing confidence is marginal, there is high confidence that the overall pattern will switch to ridging over the southeastern states through the southern Great Lakes. This will allow for another round of increasing temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dying convection in central Ohio will continue to move out. Some more showers without thunder are working into the region from the south and could affect the TAF sites spreading from KCVG/KLUK and dissipating before reaching any of the remaining TAF sites. Model guidance is haphazard at best - expect showers with little instability to work with to be possible through daybreak, with an expected lull in the morning to the activity. Cigs will be low given the amount of moisture in the air and some vsby restrictions will occur in the morning, even as winds around 8kt persist. Showers are expected in the afternoon with the passage of the actual cold front and some of these will likely contain thunder. Given uncertainty in occurrence and placement of storms, have left thunder out at this moment in time and expect that future TAF issuances would hammer out details with amendments to include the deeper convection as it becomes more evident. Activity will end in the evening and skies will clear overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks

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