Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271954 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN QUICKLY BACK TO SOUTHERN OHIO. FOR THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HIGH RES MODELS HAVE IT SLOWLY BREAKING APART AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND SPLITTING NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE ALSO IS SOME LEFT OVER DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO COME THIS EVENING. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT 250 MB LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING WITH THE ILN CWA JUST EAST OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB FROM 12Z REVEALED GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHICH IS FORECASTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE 1.50" VIA THE NAM AND GFS (NEAR THE MAX DAILY VALUE). OMEGA VALUES ALSO SHOW STRONG LIFT MOVING OVERHEAD AROUND 3Z. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. K INDEX VALUES ALSO RISE TO AROUND 37 AT CVG. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH AS SOUNDINGS AT CMH SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE ABOVE SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN GENERAL HIGH RES MODELS HAS THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS. ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO THIN OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ARE NOW BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WILL THEREFORE JUST ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH KCVG/KLUK IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO IFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...JGL

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