Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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432 FXUS61 KILN 231034 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 634 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through today. A weak cold front will push south into the area tonight. This front will then move slowly southwest through the remainder of the area Saturday into Saturday night. The front will begin to move back to the northeast as a warm front late in the day on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level clouds across the region per satellite imagery have been breaking up or decreasing in coverage. This should continue through sunrise, with mostly sunny skies expected for all locations by mid morning. For today, we will squeeze out a very warm day once again ahead of an advancing weak cold front to our north. The front should make its way into northern Indiana and northern Ohio by late in the afternoon. Forcing with this feature is weak, and low chances of showers and thunderstorms should stay to our north. Highs will warm back up into the mid/upper 80s with a couple of 90 degree readings possible across the southern zones. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Large scale mid level trough will dig southeast into southeast Canada/New England tonight through Saturday night. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will sharpen/push northward into south central Canada. This pattern will allow aforementioned weak cold front to slowly work its way south and southwest tonight into Saturday night. Forcing will remain weak with this boundary, and most models, including high resolution models, suggest that any chance of a shower or storm will remain around 10 percent or less, so have gone with a dry forecast through this period. Clouds will increase from the north tonight into Saturday morning, then we should see a decreasing trend of clouds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Clouds, along with some post frontal CAA, will cool northern areas into the upper 70s for highs on Saturday, while locations along and south of the Ohio River will still make it up into the upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid 50s far north/northeast to the mid 60s far southwest. On Sunday, mid level ridge to our west will begin to move east in response to a large scale mid level trough moving east into the northern and central Plains. We should see partly to mostly sunny skies with highs ranging from near 80 north to the upper 80s far south. For Sunday night into Monday, there remains variability among the operational models in terms of timing and digging of mid level trough as it pushes east toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This in turn yields different strength and timing solutions for an associated cold front to move through the region. Per WPC, the GFS offers a middle of the road solution, so have leaned/weighed the forecast toward this solution. Have, however, kept pops in the chance category due to strength uncertainty. This forecast period will indicate an increase in clouds Sunday night along with a chance of showers/storms west late, moving west to east through the region on Monday. Highs on Monday will be a bit tricky given clouds and where/how fast front moves through. A blend yields highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s east/southeast. It looks we may end up in the dry slot in the wake of departing front Monday night, so have the threat of pcpn coming to an end with skies becoming partly cloudy. Drier and cooler air will move in overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A slower, deeper mid level trough solution moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley early to mid week was still used for the extended forecast per WPC suggestion. This will bring cooler weather along with a low chance of precipitation during this period. Drier weather with a warming trend should return by the end of the week as the mid level trough moves away, allowing mid level ridging to build back into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will keep conditions generally VFR through the forecast period, with the exception of the usual fog (IFR/LIFR) at KLUK early this morning. Some patches of high clouds are moving through the region as of this writing, and a few cumulus clouds may develop during the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light through this evening. Late tonight and going into early Saturday morning, winds will shift to the northeast, and increase slightly in intensity. Clouds will also begin to lower, though as of now it appears that they are most likely to remain in the VFR range. However, there will be a chance of MVFR ceilings near sunrise on Saturday morning, particularly for Dayton and Columbus. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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