Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261039 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 639 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 25.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND THE GEFS MEAN. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY HOWEVER AS ERIKA COMES INTO THE PICTURE. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. VARIOUS RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THEY TRY TO GET A HANDLE ON ERIKA`S TRACK. THE 12Z GFS MORPHS THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW THAT RETROGRADES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHEREAS ITS 06Z RUN WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH SHEARS OUT THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDE SPREAD...GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS FOR MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THEIR SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON DEVELOPING A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING A RETURN TO SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH. IT APPEARS THAT THEY MAY ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE WHICH MAY ALLOW THE CINCINNATI AREA TO SCATTERED AFTER 00Z. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLUK OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...

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