Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 132109 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 409 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Precipitation will expand across the region tonight. With temperatures near or below freezing, periods of freezing rain will be possible tonight into early Saturday morning. Building high pressure will push the precipitation to the south of the region Saturday afternoon and night, before it lifts north again on Sunday and Sunday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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An area of rain continues to drift to the east, tickling the nrn KY counties. A little farther north, some flurries or sprinkles have been falling out of a mid deck. The trend of the latest model runs has been to keep this initial shot of pcpn in nrn KY, maybe extreme srn OH. At the same time, they have been keeping temperatures warmer/above freezing in these same locations. After 06Z, they then develop lift across the area and develop pcpn up into the I-70 corridor. The secondary shot of pcpn is much lighter on the QPF and therefore the icing amounts. So have backed down on the ice amounts a little in the I-70 corridor, less than .1" Meanwhile in srn OH and nrn KY, with sfc temps starting above freezing, this will limit the freezing rain and icing on the srn edge. so trimmed Switzerland IN, and Boone/Kenton/Campbell KY out of the advisory. Hamilton Clermont and Brown counties were left in as the nrn portions of those counties could still see icing. The West Central counties around Lima could see a light dusting of snow were the deeper cold air is located. Lows for the region will range from the mid 20s in West Central OH to the mid 30s in nrn KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Lift will be ongoing across the region at the start of Saturday morning, but weakens quickly, allowing the pcpn to be shunted south of the Ohio River and high pressure builds in. The models are stronger with this high than previous runs allowing it to push the pcpn farther south. Highs Saturday will be near normal, ranging from the mid 30s in the north to the lower 40s in nrn KY. Saturday night looks dry down and the nrn counties could see some breaks in the clouds. Temps will drop back to the mid 20 to lower 30s with the normal n-s gradient. The front will begin to lift back to the north on Sunday. Rain will develop on the isentropic lift. This will allow for chance PoPs to spread back up across the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Saturday night as the pcpn reaches north of I-70, temperatures will once again be at or just below freezing, so a wintery mix will be possible. Any pcpn looks to be fairly light, but will keep the mention in the HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A warm front lifting northward through the Ohio Valley early on Monday is getting less and less coverage looking at the QPF fields. This appears due to the h5 ridge in place that would limit any upward motion in the region. GFS has an elongated vort maxima that cuts through a significantly weaker h5 ridge and this was in line with the previous several days forecast. Was hesitant to lower the chances of rain in this period to nothing as a low chance seemed the better forecast. If precip is here at this time, early Monday would see temps below freezing along and north of the I-70 corridor for a few hours until temps quickly rise above 32 deg. As the upper ridge moves east overnight, rain will overspread the region from the west. Some of this may be heavy at times as the surface low tracking to the Great Lakes region is strengthening and the low level jet brings in a good moisture plume from the Gulf. Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFS brings a cutoff low tracking south into the midwest and then east through the region. Canadian and European models are much less robust with the h5 low and keep a more open wave as it crosses further north. This is the warmer and wetter solution which has better continuity from previous forecasts when extrapolating further into Tuesday night and Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from west to east during the day. GFS was dry for early Wednesday whereas European and Canadian hold the surface front and weak low pressure center over nrn KY early on Wednesday before exiting east. Kept Thursday dry and hedged towards a chance of showers on Friday but feel that any system this far out would only impact areas south of the CWA. Continued to keep to the warm side of guidance for the extended forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Linger low clouds will continue to scatter early in the period. Rain tracking south of the terminals will spread into the Cincinnati area before 00Z and then diminish in the evening. Light precipitation will then be possible across the entire region overnight. Not enough confidence to go with much more than VCSH. But any precipitation north of the Cincinnati area may occur as freezing rain, so light icing is possible at other terminals, even with just passing patchy light precipitation. Ceilings will lower from south to north after 00Z eventually falling to IFR at all sites expect the Columbus area, which will stay MVFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Saturday afternoon through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for OHZ042-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-082. KY...None. IN...Freezing Rain Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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