Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 192357 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 757 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front draped across the northern Ohio Valley in an east- west orientation will stall out this evening before lifting back northward tonight as a warm front. A cold front with associated shower and thunderstorm activity will move through the area late Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. High pressure will briefly build into the region Friday before a low pressure system tracks east through the northern Tennessee Valley this weekend along the remnant frontal boundary, bringing additional chances for rain Saturday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Shower and thunderstorm activity overnight will generally be confined to northern portions of the area, however some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out elsewhere across the area. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out early this evening, however the threat will diminish as the evening progresses. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning and then a lull in the precipitation is expected. Cloud cover will also decrease before additional cu begin to develop. Model soundings are indicating wind gusts around 25 to 35 mph during the late morning and through the day on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to work into the region Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening in advance of a cold front. There is decent instability during the afternoon and early evening hours. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible during this time with the greatest likelihood across northwestern portions of the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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By Thursday night, remnant scattered storm activity will be on the decrease as it pushes south/east through the remainder of the FA. Cooler/drier air will gradually filter in from the W/NW overnight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s (NW) to the upper 50s (SE).
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cooler conditions are expected for Friday with northerly flow. Most of the day on Friday will be dry, however precipitation will begin to work up into southern portions of the forecast area later in the day on Friday. The ECMWF continues to be quickest with the precipitation and the furthest north. The highest confidence with precipitation chances are along and south of the Ohio River therefore went with higher precipitation chances there. Precipitation chances will be in the forecast from later in the day on Friday through Saturday and taper off on Sunday. There is no instability therefore kept any thunder mention out of the forecast. With precipitation chances and clouds, cool conditions will be present through the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s. High pressure and dry conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday. A weak system moves through the region on Tuesday, however moisture is limited and therefore kept precipitation chances out of the forecast at this time. Dry conditions continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will stay out of the TAF sites overnight, however some shower activity will be possible around KCMH and KLCK. Handled this with a VCSH mention. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, however due to isolated nature kept out of the TAFs at this time. Dry conditions will start out the day on Thursday. Winds will pick up in advance of a cold front. Wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots will be present Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will work into the TAF sites towards the end of the TAF period in advance of the cold front. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely into Thursday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday into Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Novak

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