Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230950 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 450 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO BE BROUGHT UP INTO THE FA. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE FA AT THE MOMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED JUST NW OF THE FA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THAT WORKS INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEREFORE HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL THEN BE A BRIEF DRY SLOT THAT IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO DURING THIS TIME THAT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 45 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME INCREASED WIND GUSTS HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE 45 KNOTS. DID INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO PRIMARILY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS PROXIMITY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...THIS TIME GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...WILL WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. IF THIS IS THE CASE LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR INSTEAD OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THRESHOLD TEMPERATURES BEING CLOSE TO HAVING ICE INTRODUCED ON THURSDAY WENT WITH THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS SYSTEM SOME. AS SUCH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DIABATIC HEATING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLDER AIR SLOWER FILTERS INTO THE REGION. FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL 12Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH OTHER. FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM EACH MODEL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER S/WV ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY REMAINS IN TACT AS ONE FEATURE AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OR SPLITS INTO TWO DISTINCT PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH ONE HANGING BACK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN STARK OPPOSITES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE ONE S/WV SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING TWO DISTINCT S/WVS. THE CMC WAS SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY HANG BACK S/WV. AS A RESULT...THE GFS FORECASTS HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WAVE ALONG STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PUSHING PCPN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF WPC/GFS/CMC WHICH BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW TO OUR SRN CWFA ON SUNDAY WHILE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FARTHER NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY THEN. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL USHER IN MVFR CONDITIONS...FIRST WITH VISIBILITY AND THEN WITH CEILINGS. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LAST TOO LONG BUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION ENDING IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP TO BELOW 2000 FT. HAVE KEPT THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER. BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SINCE ANY PASSING PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT WILL BACK PARTICULARLY FROM CINCINNATI TO DAYTON LATE IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...

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