Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 652 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY...PUSHING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO GENERATE PCPN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE WET THAN THE HIGHER RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH ARE SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN. THINK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD OFF ANY PCPN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN A CONTINUED WAA PATTERN...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PCPN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOW ITS OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHER POPS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. FAIRLY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS A 50-60 KNOT 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED THUS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE PCPN OVERSPREADS OUR AREA BUT GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION (ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHARPENING SHORTWAVE) HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MODEL AGREEMENT WAS FAIRLY STRONG IN SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR TUESDAY WAS NECESSARY. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ILN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING...A BRIEF MIXING OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED. BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING (NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON)...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE PSEUDO-DIURNAL. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN HALF WILL BEGIN COOLING OFF (AND FAIRLY QUICKLY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS POINTS THE WAY TOWARD A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN (AFFECTING WIND DIRECTION AND ADVECTION) ARE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE TREND THROUGH 12Z RUNS TODAY WAS FOR A SLIGHT WARMING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN FACT...SSE FLOW ON THURSDAY NOW SUPPORTS WARM ADVECTION EVEN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WAS NOT APPRECIABLY PRESENT IN THE RUNS YESTERDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS WILL STEADILY ADVANCE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO OHIO. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WITH OUR AREA SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. CIGS WILL DROP A BIT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...KURZ

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