Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241506 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1006 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SOME SUNSHINE. SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW/WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 20S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM...AND THIS SHOULD BE OK AS WIND CHILL VALUES INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER FORCING...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTER THE H5 ENERGY AND SNOW PUSHES BY...THE MAIN CORE OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A GOOD ARCTIC BLAST WITH LOW BELOW ZERO FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE...WHERE IT WILL STILL BE AROUND ZERO. THE HIGH WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 15 TO 25 DEGREES...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTER SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PUSHING A SYSTEM OUT THE COUNTRYS MID SECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY. RIGHT NOW WENT WITH SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT IF WARM AIR COMES IN ALOFT QUICKER...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE SFC TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE ZERO. CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN ON BEHIND THE FRONT...CHANGING THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY CHANGING PCPN BACK TO RAIN FOR && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES MAY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING BUT VSBYS SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...PADGETT

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