Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271735 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 135 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR HARDIN COUNTY OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS IT UNDER GOES OCCLUSION WITH ITS MID LVL CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING LOCATED NEAR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PCPN ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE DEFORMATION/TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW TRACK SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED FOR OUR REGION...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE WABASH RIVER NEAR FORT RECOVERY IN MERCER COUNTY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT FELT THIS IS VERY LOW SO HAVE JUST GONE WITH SHOWERS. REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY AS IT APPEARS PRECIP SHIELD IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD INDICATED. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS STRONGEST IN THE NW WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NW. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THIS REQUIRED A ECMWF/NAM BLEND. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO...DEFORMATION/TROWAL REGION ALOFT SHOULD GET PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR OUR NRN ZONES. WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING HERE...WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ENDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT OVER THE FAR WEST AND SRN ZONES...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. ON SUNDAY...THE LOW AND ITS UPR LVL CIRCULATION WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EAST WHILE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HAVE TAKEN A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED S/WV TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF ACRS OUR WEST UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS MID LVL S/WV DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING ATTM...HAVE JUST HELD ON TO A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WITH LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHERN OHIO...VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR TAF SITES IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOWERED BY THE RAIN. HOWEVER...CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT FLIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT CMH AND LCK CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR THE MVFR CEILINGS STARTING AT CVG AROUND 03Z. CMH AND LCK MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR UNTIL 14Z. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AFTER 14Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL STAY RATHER STRONG FOR SUMMER...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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