Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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653 FXUS61 KILN 260211 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1011 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow will result in warm and dry weather into Wednesday night. A cold front will sweep across the region on Thursday with high pressure briefly building in behind the front. Conditions will become unsettled over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Weak high pressure over the region overnight. Cumulus clouds which developed this aftn have dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. IR satellite imagery shows only some upstream high level clouds which will move across the region through the night. Some patchy fog will be likely in river valleys and eastern counties overnight. Expect lows from the mid/upper 50s west to the lower 50s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging will sharpen along the western edge of the Appalachians with southerly low level flow increasing during the day. Looks like there will be little to no clouds. All of this will lead to very warm temperatures, although falling a few degrees shy of records across the area. Wednesday night, a short wave will pivot out of the Ozarks into central Illinois/Indiana. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will approach the western counties late in the night. At this point it looks like a rather sharp gradient in moisture with this. So clouds will not increase until the latter half of the night. Persistent south winds will keep readings quite mild. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Active weather pattern will be in place for the long term period. A cold front will move through on Thursday. There are strong low level winds so wind gusts outside of thunderstorms have the potential to be 30 to 40 mph. There is also some marginal instability. With these factors in place as thunderstorms develop there will be the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. The Storm Prediction Center also has the region in a marginal risk for Thursday. Included this threat in the HWO. Temperatures will begin to cool during the afternoon hours as cooler air works into the region. There will be a lull in the precipitation Thursday night. Cannot rule out a few showers or storms on Friday, however any coverage is expected to be limited. This will allow for temperatures to climb back into the 70s to around 80. There is some uncertainty for the weekend with where the frontal boundary lays out and subsequently where the best precipitation chances are and how warm temperatures will be. Due to this did not go more than likely precipitation chances at any point during the weekend expect for northwest of Interstate 71 Saturday morning. Breezy conditions are expected for much of the weekend and into the early part of next week. Dry conditions are then expected Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cumulus clouds which developed around 5000 feet will dissipate with sunset. Expect only some thinning high level clouds overnight. With light wind flow and surface dewpoints in the mid 50s expect patchy fog to develop over river valleys and across eastern sites. Have MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK and KLCK late tonight into early Wednesday. Expect fog to burn off quickly Wednesday morning with only high level clouds through the day. Have mentioned LLWS at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site Wednesday evening with low level jet developing over the area and boundary layer decoupling. Surface winds will be light southeast overnight becoming south at 10 to 15 kts Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and then again Friday night through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...AR

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