Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211920 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 320 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large ridge of high pressure over the central portion of the United States will bring hot and humid conditions to the Ohio Valley through the weekend. A weak front will bring scattered showers and storms as it lays across the region. A strong cold front will bring more showers and storms for Monday with slightly cooler air for the first half of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure dominant overnight. Dewpoints increasing will make warmer and more muggy conditions but most of CWA should be rain free. Some concern about remants of convection droping down into nortwest portions of fcst area. Will thus keep current small pop in for now.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Heat and humidity will be the main focus through Friday and the weekend, but a challenging forecast for potential convection is also a part of the situation. Temps and dewpoints on the rise and fairly confident that at least most of fcst area will see heat indices reaching the 100 degree mark in the afternoon both Friday and Saturday. With 2 consecutive days of 100 have issued heat warnings for Hamilton and Montgomery counties and advisory for rest of fcst area. Biggest question mark is convection coverage and timing. Difficult to pinpoint timing and coverage through fcst period. Have opted to keep pops in the chance category for now but a bit higher than previous fcst. SPC has marginal outlook which looks reasonable as any widespread significant outbreak would not be expected in this patteren. Any storms would be slow moving with mainly strong wind gusts and heavy rain. Temps generally close to guidance through period.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sunday morning the long term will open up with mid-level ridging stretching across the entire center of the central United States from the west coast to the east coast. Over the next couple of days several shortwaves will traverse the region bringing on and off chances of showers and thunderstorms. This pattern will continue through most of the extended with a slightly lower heights and temperatures possible by the end of next week. The main story for the beginning of the extended will be the heat and humidity. 850 mb temperatures will again be around 20 degrees C with high temperatures in the lower 90s forecasted. This working in combination with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will put heat index values in the lower 100s. During the day Sunday a weak shortwave will move overhead bringing a chance of rain to the area with the GFS and ECMWF being pretty similar with the strength and position of the wave. During the day Sunday PWATs are forecasted to rise above 2.00" at times and given widespread instability have nudged PoPs upwards slightly. On Monday an upper level low will swing east across the Hudson Bay bringing a weak front across the area. Surface convergence is weak along the front and timing between the GFS and ECMWF is slightly out of phase. The ECMWF is slightly faster than the GFS with the GFS bringing the front through Tuesday morning. The ECMWF bring the front through Monday evening. Have leaned towards the ECMWF here. Behind the front much drier air will filter in with PWATs less than 1.00". This will help to bring a temporary end in the precip until Thursday. At the end of extended Thursday another shortwave will approach the area bringing the chance of rain back to the area.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Few to scattered cumulus will dissipate with loss of heating. Convection well north of the terminals is expected to dissipate although there is a slim chance that it could continue and possibly impact central Ohio overnight. There will likely be visibility restrictions at KLUK again tonight. Late in the TAF period there is another small chance of storms...but the probability is much too low at this point to include in the forecast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074- 078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077. KY...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Padgett NEAR TERM...Padgett SHORT TERM...Padgett LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...

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