Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 152346 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 646 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRAVELS EAST...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. THE LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO BE NEAR CHICAGO BY 6 AM. SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE ILN AREA STARTING THIS EVENING IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER LOW IN A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL IMPEDE SHOWERS AT THE ONSET...BUT STILL EXPECT MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH TO AID IN SHOWER FORMATION BY LATE THIS EVENING SO KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS IN A NARROW BAND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. WITH THE AREA UNDER WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. AS THE BRISK WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO 50 TUESDAY IN THE MILD REGIME SURROUNDING THE DEPARTING LOW. COLDER HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION RESULTS IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A STRUNG OUT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS STRUGGLES IN DEALING WITH ENERGY SWINGING OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY. AFTER WINDING UP A LOW AND LIFTING IT N INTO THE REGION WITH YESTERDAYS RUN...THE GFS NOW TAKES A QUICK MOVING SHEARED OUT H5 VORT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SPREADS PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION OF A TAKING A SLOWER A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT IS BACKED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. SO BROUGHT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE WE ARE ON THE EXTREME NRN EDGE..MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME SLEET OR RAIN MIXING IN. AS THE SFC PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W SWINGING THRU WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND WILL PULL PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK IN SATURDAY THRU MONDAY KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BOTH AHEAD AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 2000 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AFTER 12Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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