Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021757 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1257 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region today. High pressure will gradually build into the area on Saturday. The high will move east on Sunday while a weak upper level disturbance moves to the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Some very light returns have developed on radar across northern portions of our fa this morning and we are getting some reports of light drizzle along some possible light flurries mixed in with this. This seems to line up well with a narrow axis of slightly deeper moisture as shown on the latest RAP that will shift east southeast across our northern fa through early afternoon. As a result, will go ahead and add a chance of flurries/drizzle through the morning hours and then try to taper it off heading into this afternoon. Otherwise, skies will remain mainly cloudy through the afternoon. This will help keep temperatures from rising too much with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid level low to our northeast will rotate out to sea on Saturday while a mid level ridge moves east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The mid level ridge will be accompanied by surface high pressure. There are some indications that pesky stratocumulus will try to erode late tonight into Saturday morning. But more often than not, low clouds tend to hold on longer than expected. In either case, considerable high level clouds, then mid level clouds will be pushing through the relatively low amplitude mid level ridge. So, there could be a few peaks of sun on Saturday, but clouds should predominate. Highs on Saturday will again range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Operational models are in fairly decent agreement in terms of the next weather system to affect our region on Sunday. Surface high pressure will move east by Sunday. As this occurs, a fast moving s/wv will push east into the Great Lakes. Overall forcing with this system will be weak. Some isentropic lift will occur with it, spreading light precipitation into our southwest/western zones during the first part of Sunday. Model soundings indicate a dry sub cloud layer at first, so some of this may go into saturating the atmosphere before any precipitation reaches the ground. Depending on how fast precipitation reaches the ground will determine if a a little snow will mix in before it becomes warm enough for mostly light rain for all locations by mid afternoon. This system will be fast moving, and by Sunday night, precipitation will be quickly exiting to the east. Again, mainly rain is expected, except for the far northern zones where a little snow may mix in before ending. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lows by Monday morning will bottom out mainly in the lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A brief lull in the precipitation will occur through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from the south. Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday, much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be possible then on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The MVFR SC deck is hanging in pretty solidly from central Indiana into central Ohio early this afternoon. There are some signs in both the satellite and surface obs of some possible erosion/lifting across parts of northern Indiana and northern Ohio. However, based on the west to northwest low level wind fields, will bank on these MVFR cigs hanging around through the afternoon. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the models has to how long the SC will hang around tonight into Saturday. There are some indications that we could see some clearing work in from the north later tonight. However, based on the continued west to northwest low level flow and persistence of the past couple of days, will be slow to show much in the way of improvement in the CIGS. If for some reason we were to clear out across the north, some MVFR/IFR type br development would be possible late tonight into early Saturday morning. Would think the best chance for this would be at KCMH/KLCK but for now will keep them mainly cloudy through the TAF period and thus have no visibility restrictions. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday and also Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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