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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 190937
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
537 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACRS PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE...WHITEWATER AND
MIAMI VALLEYS THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED FOG WORDING IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LOCALLY
DENSE SPOTS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PESKY UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
POP ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN
IMPLIED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE OUR AREA A REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
THUS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...IT WILL
ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 19.00Z
CMC AND THE 19.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED
BACK WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO USE. DURING THIS PERIOD...MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A LARGE SCALE MID LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL DEPEND ON ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT MAY EJECT NE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL BLEND. IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION...A MORE
BONAFIDE S/WV AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRATOCUMULUS AND MID CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED OVER
THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THESE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR...AND SOME DROPS IN VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN NOTED AT NON-TAF
AIRPORT LOCATIONS. MVFR VISIBILITIES STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
KLUK WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR THROUGH MORNING.

DIURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT AS EASY TO PINPOINT. SO...THINGS
WILL BE KEPT RATHER GENERAL IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARING TO BE AT THE EASTERN
(COLUMBUS) TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS