Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181139 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 639 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... In warm sector mid level ridge to flatten some and slide off to the east. Meanwhile, southern mid/upr level low over the southern Plains to to open up some and track east into the Tennessee Valley. Mid/high level clouds will increase through the day ahead of this system. Model solution differences exist regarding how far north the rain showers will make it. GFS/ECMWF solns differ on timing some but both bring northern periphery of pcpn associated with 700 mb deformation zone into northern Ky and far southern Ohio. NAM soln is an outlier and is further south. Will side with consensus of GFS/ECMWF solns which have better continuity, bringing chance pops of rain showers into the far south this aftn into this evening. Expect highs to be around 20 degrees above normal, generally in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Mid/upper level trough to track east through the TN Valley this evening with rain showers across the southeast counties coming to an end. Weak surface ridge across the region with weak front dropping into northern Ohio. In weak flow pattern, low clouds look to linger tonight especially across the southeast. Lows will be mild, with readings above normal highs. Expect lows from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. Sharp full latitude mid level ridge to build into the MS Valley and western Great Lakes Sunday as weak surface ridge slides east. Lingering morning clouds, especially across the southeast will give way to increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Warm high temperatures to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s north to the mid/upper 60s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... For Sunday night and Monday, surface high will be centered to the northeast, with the axis of a high amplitude upper ridge crossing the ILN area. This regime of scant moisture and forcing points to a warm and dry period to start the long term. Next system to produce precip will be a front extending from the polar regions into the tropics. This front has been very consistently represented on models for several days, raising confidence that showers will be moving in Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Weak temperature gradient and lack of cold air aloft should keep thunderstorms from developing. High pressure and a dry airmass are forecast to return Wednesday. For Thursday, some increase in moisture along a developing warm front may produce a few showers. Showers will be likely and thunderstorms possible Friday along a strong cold front swinging in from the west. Geopotential surfaces that will be well above normal for February, coupled with a southerly surface flow carrying warmer air, will produce temperatures that are far above normal. Highs in the 60s each day will contrast with normal highs in the lower to middle 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Conditions will be VFR to start with surface high pressure centered to the southeast. Mid and high clouds will thicken during daylight hours ahead of an upper trough. Low level moisture will begin to increase by around 21z, with showers possible in the vicinity of CVG and LUK around 00z. After further moistening of the boundary layer, in the presence of a weak surface boundary behind the upper trough axis, MVFR conditions are forecast to develop at all sites by the end of the forecast. Winds starting out of the south-southwest will gradually transition to west-southwest, with speeds fluctuating between 4 to 12 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sat 2/18 68(1948) 63(1948/1994/2011) 64(1948) Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Coniglio CLIMATE...

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