Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 159 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the area through the first of the week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A surface low will push east of the area today. Scattered light shower activity will continue however as an upper level disturbance approaches and moves through the region. This will also keep extensive cloud cover across the area through the day. A few breaks in the clouds will be possible on the western portions of the forecast area. There is some limited instability this afternoon across southeast portions of the forecast area. Due to this have a slight chance of thunder in the forecast however with extensive cloud cover believe this is overdone and that thunder will be minimal. Cloud cover will also limit temperatures today and therefore went on the cool side of guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. This energy will brush across eastern portions of our FA late tonight into the day on Sunday and may result in a few showers across our east. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough sunshine across at least our western areas to help push temperatures into the lower 70s. Across the east where there could be a few more clouds, expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high pressure and a drier airmass will build in from the west through the day on Monday. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate with highs in the mid 70s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the ridge flattens and the area of upper level low pressure in New England gradually weakens, the pattern will change to a more progressive setup of SSW flow from the southwestern states into the Ohio Valley, and will likely remain in this configuration through the rest of the week. With ridging over the southeastern states, this will allow for a steadier stream of warm and moist air into the middle sections of the country. With shortwaves moving through the pseudo-zonal setup on occasion, chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. Initial precipitation chances appear to begin on Tuesday night (in a regime of strong southwesterly 925mb- 850mb theta-e advection). However, contributions from the diurnal cycle will make developmental convection during the afternoons of Wednesday through Friday. Otherwise, timing the small-scale features out will be critical for specifics on this part of the forecast as it gets closer to the current time. With the potential for the development of moderate instability, some severe threat may exist during the second half of next week. Though model runs today were slightly more aggressive with the southerly flow and the potential for warming temperatures next week, the occasional chances for rain (and likely persistence of clouds) will keep the forecast from making more than a small upward adjustment in max temps from Wednesday through Friday. This forecast will allow for temperatures of around 80 each day, but these could need to be increased slightly on any given day if a brief dry / sunny period eventually becomes more certain to occur. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Cigs will gradually improve across the region this afternoon. Winds will pick up with some wind gusts around 20 knots this afternoon before decreasing this evening. Scattered light shower activity will be present this afternoon before dissipating this evening. MVFR visbys will be possible at KLUK for a few hours overnight with fog. Winds will pick up again during the day on Sunday with wind gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon. Cu will develop for the daytime hours. Upper level disturbance will lead to the potential for a few showers late in the TAF period at KCMH and KLCK. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Novak

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