Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121430 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1030 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure and dry air will build in from the west. The high is forecast to provide dry weather into Wednesday. Low pressure and a cold front will bring the next chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Stratocumulus will continue to develop through the day, but there will still be a good deal of sun. Cannot completely rule out a few showers or storms in the far southeast counties. Forecast highs look reasonable with only very minor adjustments.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure under a confluent westerly upper flow will extend across the Ohio Valley tonight through Sunday. This regime will provide mainly clear/sunny skies. Slight warm advection and abundant insolation will result in high temperatures around 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Zonal flow aloft with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes this weekend into early next week. This high will provide dry weather into next week. Latest model solutions have trended south with system early next week. Therefore, will keep the area dry through mid week. Temperatures will start the week a little below normal, with highs Monday from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. Southerly flow will develop on the back side of retreating high pressure. This will allow temperatures to warm to near normal Wednesday. Wednesdays highs are expected to be in the lower and middle 80s. Return flow will allow for an increase in moisture and a chance for thunderstorms associated with a warm front later Wednesday. Model solutions have been inconsistent handling late week wave in the zonal flow. Due to this inconsistency, uncertainty increases and have limited pops for any given period to chance category. Will continue chance pops for Thursday with the area expected to be in the warm sector. Expect continued warm temperatures with Thursdays highs in the lower and middle 80s. Surface front expected to push east of the region sometime Friday, so have diminished pops from west to east. Northwesterly flow with some drying indicated next Saturday. Due to solution spread have kept only a slight of perception Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have ended and TAF sites should be free from precip for this forecast. BR has been slow to form in humid air near the surface. Visibilities may still be reduced briefly. Once any BR burns off by mid morning, VFR should persist through evening as high pressure and dry air move in. Winds shifting to north will stay around 10 knots or less. BR may then reduce visibilities to MVFR/IFR late in the forecast under light winds and clear skies. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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