Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201055 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 655 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL THEN DRAW INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NW HALF OF ILN/S FA WHERE CLOUDS CLEARED. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED THRU THE NIGHT ALONG A WEAK SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF I-71. OTHERWISE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE CLEARING OCCURRED. HAVE MENTION IN GRIDS AND MENTION REDUCED VSBYS IN HWO PRODUCT. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWING INITIAL ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WHICH YIELDS MODERATE INSTBY. THIS INSTBY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL WILL LKLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A LTL TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 EAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW UPR/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES ILN/S FA AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. WILL LIMIT POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR EAST. THE UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UPR TO HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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TAF SITES ARE EXPERIENCING A HUMID AIRMASS AND WEAK WIND FLOW UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FOG THAT HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO VLIFR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ONCE FOG DISSIPATES. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR CMH AND LCK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. BR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE HUMID AIRMASS AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>055-060>062-070>072. KY...NONE. IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058- 059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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