Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141808 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 208 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered southeast of the region today, providing dry conditions and increasing temperatures. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday, bringing showers and gusty winds. Dry weather and cooler air will settle in behind the front for the first half of the week, with warming temperatures expected heading into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Spotty rain showers across our northwest earlier this morning have pretty much come to an end and expect mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the day. Think some of the mid level clouds currently across the area will mix out through late morning/early afternoon, leaving mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. In a continued WAA pattern, highs today will push into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Surface cyclogenesis will occur late Saturday in the plains, with low pressure deepening going into Saturday night and Sunday as it moves ENE into the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend SW from this surface cyclone, and this front is forecast to cross through the ILN CWA during the first half of the day on Sunday. For Saturday night, it still appears likely that precipitation will remain just outside the forecast area. Min temperatures may be reached early in the overnight period, as an increasing pressure gradient brings steady or rising temperatures by early morning. The biggest impact on Sunday will likely be from the overall synoptic wind fields, which are expected to increase in response to the deepening surface low. Even with that said, gusts are expected to remain below advisory criteria as of all current model projections, perhaps reaching as high as 30-35 knots in the northern CWA. The passage of the front will provide the greatest opportunity for gusts at this magnitude, but gusty winds may persist for a while behind it. Convective potential is very questionable, with model soundings indicating only some very shallow instability (under 200 J/kg in most cases) ahead of the front. What WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM models suggest may occur is that a line of convective showers (possibly with some thunder) right along the front should actually strengthen over the course of the morning and early afternoon, which would put the southeastern ILN CWA at the greatest risk of some convective enhancement to the winds. Nonetheless, with such meager instability, even the strong wind fields do not support much of a risk for anything beyond the magnitude of what has already been mentioned. Additional precipitation appears likely to occur behind the frontal passage. Non-diurnal temperatures were necessary on Sunday, as a very quick drop is expected once the front passes, even though -- for the northwestern ILN CWA -- that is expected to occur during what would otherwise be the upswing of the diurnal cycle. On the flip side, temperatures may briefly get quite warm in the Portsmouth area -- possibly pushing into the upper 70s before the front arrives. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Precipitation will come to an end across our east Sunday night as subsidence increases in the wake of the aforementioned frontal system. Skies will become partly cloudy as well. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s by Monday morning. Surface high pressure will build into our region on Monday, and then it will settle across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. Mostly sunny skies on Monday will give way to clear conditions Monday night. Monday will be the coolest day of the week and will "feel" like fall given the warm temperatures experienced this month. With light to calm winds in our eastern zones, some patchy frost will be possible by Tuesday morning where temperatures will dip into the mid 30s. Upper 30s to lower 40s are forecast elsewhere. High pressure at the surface and eventually aloft will dominate the weather pattern for the remainder of the extended period. This will result in a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Highs will eventually warm into the lower to mid 70s which is above normal for the third week in October. Lows in the 30s and 40s will modify to all 40s by weeks end. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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We are still seeing some lingering AC across our north and this may clip the central Ohio TAFs over the next hour or two. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear across the area through the rest of the afternoon. Clouds will then begin to increase and lower later tonight and into early Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This will eventually allow for some showers to spread in from the west through mid morning and then linger into early to mid afternoon. Instability is very marginal so while an isolated embedded thunderstorm will be possible, the chance appears too low to mention in the TAFs. As the pressure gradient tightens up ahead the front, southwest winds will increase through the morning with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL

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