Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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408 FXUS61 KILN 091748 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1248 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold air mass will remain over the region for the next several days. Some flurries are expected this morning, before high pressure moves into the region tonight into Saturday. A complex low pressure system will affect the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Monday, bringing a mix of snow and rain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clear slot across the middle of the forecast area has been filling in. So the entire area will be mostly cloudy this afternoon. There are still some flurries about, generally confined to the far southern and far northern parts of the area. There should be minimal rise in temperatures through the rest of the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... West-northwest flow with surface high pressure settling into the TN valley overnight. The low clouds will erode from the southwest, but additional mid and high clouds will stream in from the west. Expect lows generally in the upper teens. Surface high pressure will build across the region on Saturday. This high will provide dry weather and continued cold temperature. Highs will range from the upper 20s across the north to the lower 30s across the south. Flow backs with s/w and associated surface wave ejecting from the central plains to the Great Lakes on Sunday/sunday night. Waa/isentropic lift pcpn develops in the form of snow across ILN/s far northern counties late Saturday night. Trends look a little further north and slower. Have a chance of snow from about I-70 north with perhaps an inch or two of snow across the far north overnight. Lows Saturday night to range from the lower 20s far north to the mid/upper 20s far south. WAA pcpn continues to slide east across ILN/s nrn counties Sunday morning with pcpn filling in across the south durg the afternoon as favorable lift develops associated with 8H 55-60 kt low level jet. Expect pcpn to remain snow across the far north with a snow to rain/snow mix acrs the central and south. Eventually under the influence of waa, the entire cwa turns over to rain Sunday night. Several inches of additional snow accumulation are possible Sun/Sun night prior to the change to rain across the far north. Temperatures on Sunday look to warm to readings ranging from the lower 30s far north to the lower 40s far south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper level shortwave quickly exits east on Monday and precipitation ends from west to east with high pressure building in the Midwest. A broad trough will cross the northern Great Lakes region Tuesday night and Wednesday with zonal westerly flow found underneath it. GFS and Canadian models are sharper with the trough and influences a lot more lift in the region on Wednesday while the ECMWF is more muted and shifts the forcing off of the east coast with very little precip in the Ohio Valley. Given the precipitation was already in the forecast, continued the low chances for the middle of next week and dried out the region on Wednesday. Models are in a sharply cool pattern for the end of the valid period on days 5-7 but show a strong variability in the ensembles of 30 degrees or more in both daytime highs and nighttime lows. While the model spreads for any period are large, the average of the runs and the deterministic run are definitely on the colder side of the ensemble members. Kept the cold pattern of the forecast but tried to trend slightly warmer to account for the variability that in inherent in the longer range forecast. Precip on these days will likely see snow on Sunday, mixing with rain along and south of the Ohio River. Temperatures will warm overnight and the rain/snow line will lift to the I-70 corridor by daybreak Monday. Precipitation on Tuesday at this moment in time would start as a mix or plain rain in the southern half of the CWA and then change to snow in the evening before ending overnight. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings at most TAF sites to start the period should lift to VFR later this afternoon. VFR ceilings will likely persist through much of the night. There is some potential for ceilings to lower back to MVFR especially near KDAY/KILN. Expect lower clouds to decrease towards 12Z. But a mid deck will remain through the end of the TAF period. West winds 10 to 15 kt will diminish towards 00Z and then back slightly. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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