Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 032025 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 425 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...FORCING MOVES EAST...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN HELD DOWN BY THE CLOUD COVER...HAVE NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S / LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS...EXPECT TO SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME MVFR CIGS. AS WE START TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KURZ NEAR TERM...KURZ SHORT TERM...KURZ LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.