Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ON MONDAY...THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL THEN FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. STILL ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN AROUND 70 GIVING CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN A REGIME CONTAINING A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED AS IT SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HEART OF THE CWFA. DO NOT LIKE THE NAM/GFS GRID SCALE FEEDBACK WHICH BLOW UP HIGH QPF VALUES ACRS THE SRN ZONES TOWARD MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WHICH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NORTHERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN. THIS CALLS FOR A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO NEAR 90 SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SHIFT FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION/CONVERGENT AXIS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR WRN CWFA LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON MONDAY WITH 50 PERCENT EMPLOYED ACRS THE WEST FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN MOST SPOTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOL AND WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 16. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COOL AIRMASS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCE AND COVERAGE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT GRADUALLY MODIFIES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WE TRANSITION INTO RETURN FLOW...HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT TAF SITES. CONDITIONS MAY INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. ACTIVITY WILL SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IGNITE ON MONDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INSTABILITY RETURNS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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