Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020237 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1037 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY... AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MID/UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACRS THE REGION WAS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS. AIRMASS IS DRY...SO HAVE CONTINUED DRY FCST. LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE IN DRY AIRMASS WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE LOWER 60S WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CHICAGO IS ALSO FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS ALONG WITH THE NAM (ON OMEGA AND QPF FIELDS). PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE FORECASTING VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.00". SOUNDINGS ALSO DON`T SHOW MUCH. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT 250 MB CURRENT CONVERGENT FLOW WILL END AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SLOWLY RISE NEAR 1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FORECASTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LIFT (VIA OMEGA FIELDS) AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND APPROACH 17 DEGREES C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED POPS HIGHER MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM A SPLITTING JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FROM THE FRONT BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK. OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK WEAK NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWATS ~ 1.4" - 1.5"). WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE LLJ IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS. THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY FEW TO SCTD CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN AROUND 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...AR

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