Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 012158 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 458 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS OHIO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IN A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ILN AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING...SO KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR 3 COUNTIES THERE. FOR THE REST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL CAUSE ANY LEFT OVER RAIN TO CHANGE TO A DUSTING OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEFORE ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION IN THE HWO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 10 MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES... WITH A QUICK MORNING SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION WED. GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLN WHICH ALLOWS FOR A BETTER PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DROPPING SOUTH THRU THE FA WED/WED NIGHT. PCPN WILL LKLY START AS SNOW NORTH AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED EVE. HIGHS ON WED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR SOUTHEAST. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO THURSDAY. 8H TEMPS OF -20 DEG C TO SETTLE INTO OHIO ON THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN. COLD AND DRY WEATHER ON TAP WITH WED NIGHT/S LOWS FROM THE NEAR ZERO ACRS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER MID TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE. THIS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO NEAR 10 SE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 30S FAR SOUTH MODEL SOLNS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BACK DOOR TYPE DROPPING INTO OHIO AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE MID MS VLY. WILL HAVE PCPN DEVELOP ACRS THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING SATURDAY AND SPREAD SOUTH ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT/SUN. EXPECT SNOW ACRS THE NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. LOWS SAT NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE EARLY HIGHS IN THE MID 20S RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO KIND BY THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO IFR AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENS. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR DUE TO LIGHT RAIN/MODERATE RAIN. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS THE LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A DRY SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WRAP AROUND BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COME TO AN END AND CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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