Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 062316 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 716 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT. 12Z MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THESE WAVES. BUT NONETHELESS EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT STARTS TO RETROGRADE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME VESTIGE OF IT COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY WHICH WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A LOW INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY TO START DROPPING BACK ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. THE COMBINATION OF SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KEEP KCMH/KLCK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY JUST EXPECT SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A VCTS AT THIS POINT AND THEN TRY TO HIT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA...PRIMARILY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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