Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280530 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 130 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... With warm and moist air over the Ohio Valley, there will be occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. After a cold front moves through the region Sunday night, drier conditions are expected for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Strong to severe storms have developed this afternoon across northern KY and south central Ohio in a moderately unstable airmass where blyr cape are 2000-2500 j/kg. These storms were highly defendant on this instability with lack of significant forcing. Therefore, with the loss of daytime heating storm coverage and intensity has diminished. Therefore the severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. Have kept a very low pop of a scattered to isold storm across the south through late tonight. As the front begins to shift northeast late tonight have spread pops north and increased to high chance category. A good deal of uncertainty exists regarding timing and placement so have kept pops in chance category with the highest pops across the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The warm front will lift north across our area through the morning hours with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along it. As the front lifts north of our area, expect to see a lull in pcpn through early afternoon. However, as we destabilize through the afternoon, additional shower and thunderstorms development will be possible from late afternoon into Sunday night. Deep layer shear values will increase through the day on Sunday, so severe storms will be possible once again, especially across our south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak short waves and limited moisture may combine to produce a few showers on Monday. Development of showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly over eastern locations on Tuesday when a weak cold front is forecast to form along the Upper Ohio Valley. Additional showers and thunderstorms may occur Wednesday as more short wave energy rounds the base of a broad upper trough. Dry conditions are expected Thursday under high pressure. Thunderstorms chances return Friday when another batch of short wave energy is forecast to arrive on a northwest upper flow. Thunderstorms may linger Saturday and Sunday as moisture and convergence increase on the southwest flow ahead of a slow moving cold front trailing Canadian low pressure. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites, and thunderstorms no longer appear like they will move into the area later during the overnight hours. Some MVFR ceilings and visibilities, however, will be possible. After conditions return to VFR by mid-morning Sunday, attention will turn to chances for showers and storms during the mid afternoon into the evening hours. Where storms occur, MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible. Clearing is expected behind the storms, with VFR conditions going into the overnight period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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