Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251744 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 144 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will persist today, with mid-level ridging centered over the southeastern states. There will be chances for showers and storms on occasion, with a weak frontal boundary located in the northern Ohio Valley. This front will move south through the region into Friday, bringing slightly drier conditions going into the weekend. However, temperatures are expected to remain above normal into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the eastern counties this afternoon and move off to the east by late in the day. Only expect some brief locally heavy rainfall out of this activity. Additional convection developing north of the area may impact far northern counties late in the day. Given observational trends...have bumped up dew points a bit. This will result in conditions near the heat advisory threshold.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... After any remaining convection dissipates during the overnight hours on Thursday, dry conditions are expected through the rest of the short term. The cold front moving into the area will be ushering in a slightly drier air mass, but the front is expected to be severely lacking in forcing and convergence. With surface high pressure moving into the southern Great Lakes on Friday, then sliding east on Saturday, moisture and convective chances should remain on the southern and western periphery of the Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will exit the region Saturday and surface easterly flow will turn southerly. Cloud cover from convection in the midwest spill into the Ohio Valley. A surface boundary is expected to lay out over the region early Sunday as high pressure builds in the Upper Midwest. This should just provide a modest increase in diurnal thunderstorm activity chances Sunday with a little more increase on Monday, both with subsequent nighttime drops in these chances. Northeast flow on Monday into Tuesday night is expected as the high traverses the Great Lakes region. Another repeat of increased chances of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday given what will become a nebulous surface pattern. While all of the potential precipitation may not contain thunder, have not tried to minimize the morning and evening chances by calling them showers, even though this may be how the pattern materializes. Just peppered any precip chances in the extended as thunderstorms. With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make increasingly uncomfortable air to the region. Some lower 80s temperatures may be expected in areas where precip develops and skies remain cloudy all day. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Light winds overnight with plentiful low level moisture may lead to stratus development. Only moderate confidence at best of lower conditions developing. At this point it appears that better chance of this occurring will be north of the Cincinnati terminals. Any lower ceilings that occur will scatter and start to lift late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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