Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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118 FXUS61 KILN 080949 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 449 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO WARM FOR SNOW. AT CMH/ LCK THE THERMAL PROFILE VIA THE NAM IS VERY CLOSE TO INITIALLY SUPPORTING SNOW. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED OUT ALL TERMINALS AS COMPLETELY RAIN. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES HAVE KEPT WITH THE THINKING OF THERE BEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP DUE TO TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY REFORM SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT THE PRECIP BEING ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO. LATEST 0Z NAM... GFS... AND CANADIAN ALL PINPOINT THE BAND SETTING UP VERY CLOSE TO COLUMBUS. THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT CAUSES THIS BAND OF SNOW FORMS DUE TO ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ANY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THIS ENERGY WILL AFFECT WHERE OR IF THE SNOW BAND SETS UP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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