Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270651 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 137 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will be in place for the weekend with multiple systems moving through the region. Mostly dry conditions return for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Quick update to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch #270. It has become clear from radar imagery -- mottled reflectivity and smooth velocity -- that these storms have transitioned to being elevated, with only low chances of strong winds still making it to the surface. Recent RAP model data suggests that the expected low level jet is just beginning to kick in, meaning that there has not been time to generate much in the way of even elevated instability for these storms to feed on. Nonetheless, some heavy rain will be possible as the storms clear the forecast area in the next few hours. Previous discussion > Showers and thunderstorms are currently approaching from the west. SPC has put the western area under Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 until 2 AM. Latest high res models show the storms slowly weakening as they dive across the region. Latest NSSL WRF is doing a fantastic job so have trended grids this direction. New zones already out. Previous Previous Discussion-> A few showers will move across northwestern portions of the forecast area through the early evening hours. A MCV or meso low approaches tonight along with upper support. There are still some model differences in the exact location of this low and subsequently precipitation coverage. Better instability is across central and southern portions of the region. Thunderstorms could end up a little further south than some of the model indications are if the thunderstorms build into the better instability. In general expect a bow of thunderstorms to move into western portions of the forecast area beginning around 8pm. Since there is a boundary nearby there is the potential for an isolated tornado. The main threat would be damaging winds. Cannot rule out isolated flooding since there will be heavy downpours, however the precipitation is expected to be relatively progressive. There is a smaller threat for large hail. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Precipitation will be exiting the area at the start of the day on Saturday with only a few residual showers and storms south of the Ohio River. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and south of the Ohio River Saturday afternoon along a frontal boundary. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with these storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to work into the region overnight associated with a warm frontal boundary. There is another severe threat during this time with damaging winds and large hail. There is some concern for flooding and isolated tornadoes well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front is forecast to lift north across Ohio Sunday morning ahead of a surface low pressure system moving across the southern Great Lakes. There is some uncertainty as to how things will play out with a possible MCS Saturday night and the effects this may have on our area into Sunday. Nonetheless, it does look like we should destabilize as we get more into the warm sector as we head through the day on Sunday. As the low moves across the southern Great Lakes, an associated cold front will drop southeast through our area Sunday night. Ahead of this, will continue with higher chance to likely pops through the day on Sunday and then taper them off from the northwest Sunday night as the cold front moves through. Expect highs on Sunday mainly in the upper 70s. An upper level low will rotate down across the Great Lakes and then shift slowly off to the east through mid week. A series of weak mid level short waves could lead to a few showers across our far north Monday and Tuesday. There is some model uncertainty on Wednesday with maybe some slightly stronger energy moving in from the southwest. For now will just allow for a low chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm later Tuesday night into Wednesday across the area. The upper level low will weaken as it shifts to the northeast United States through the end of the week. This will help us transition into more of a southwest flow pattern with the possibility of some lower chance pops developing toward the end of the long term period. Seasonable temperatures will continue through the week with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Chances for thunderstorms appear to be ending in the near term for the TAF sites, though a chance of showers will persist at DAY/CMH/LCK for the next few hours. As the overnight hours progress, lower ceilings are eventually expected to build into the area. This will bring MVFR conditions to all TAF sites, with some <2kft ceilings possible. These ceilings are expected to lift by mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected through most of the day, with westerly to northwesterly winds of generally around 10 knots. There is a slight chance that some showers or storms could develop in the afternoon near Cincinnati. Additional chances for showers and storms will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...Intermittent chances of thunderstorms along with MVFR ceilings will be possible from Saturday night through Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Hatzos/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.