Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 290543
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A very warm and humid airmass will remain in place through Monday.
This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the
forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected Tuesday, under
the influence of weak surface high pressure. The next chance for
thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the approach of a cold
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High moisture environment combined with several mesoscale
boundaries led to scattered to numerous thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall this evening. Relative slow movement to storms
particularly across southwest Ohio/southeast Indiana/northern
Kentucky enhanced rainfall totals and produced areas of flash
flooding in some areas. Most significant flash flooding appears
to have occurred in Hamilton County near the Norwood area. With
the setting of the sun, both coverage and intensity of
thunderstorms have decreased. But there are still places with
ongoing flooding issues due to earlier rainfall/runoff and it will
take some time for water to recede. Please refer to flash
flood/flood warnings and statements.
Will continue to trend pops downward through the rest of the
night. Expect another muggy night with dewpoints remaining in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. There may be a fair amount of
lingering mid clouds overnight which would inhibit fog formation,
but can`t rule out patchy fog forming in fog-prone areas late.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Initial frontal boundary to the north looks to wash out Monday,
but models suggest that weak high pressure and lower precipitable
water values will try to move down at least in central/west-
central Ohio later in the day. This may keep that area dry on
Monday, however sufficient moisture along with afternoon
instability will likely support convective development Monday
afternoon further south into Ohio/northern Kentucky. Locally heavy
rainfall could once again be a risk with the strongest storms.
Lower precipitable waters and a bubble of high pressure press
further south Monday night into Tuesday. Therefore, have
continued with a dry forecast during this time. A cold front will
approach late Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will push into the region at the beginning of the period.
Forcing appears weak and moisture limited...but still included a
chance of storms across northern counties.
High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and
continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The high
will continue extend into the forecast area through the weekend.
This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop closer to
normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over the
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms have dissipated with loss of daytime heating.
Expect BR to reduce visibilities early this morning in the very
humid airmass. Once the BR burns off by mid morning, VFR should
then persist as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
Thunderstorms may develop again this afternoon but models keep
them west of TAF sites. Sky cover should become rather sparse with
SCT cumulus and altocumulus. Winds will remain light out of the
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.