Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220619 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 219 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HAVE ENDED AND SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS A LITTLE BETTER. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE FA. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. HIGHLIGHTED THESE VALUES IN THE HWO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WORK INTO THE FA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. STRONG STORM CHANCES ARE LESS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY. DUE TO THIS DO NOT HAVE STRONG STORM MENTION IN THE HWO ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME REMAINING SHOWERS (AND LITTLE INSTABILITY) MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY IN A REGIME OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY ACT TO FOCUS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THESE CHANCES MAY INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH GREATER AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGER EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALSO EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CLOUDIER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AFTER PEAKING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000 WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SRN TAF SITES EARLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR BR LATER TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS AT KLUK AND POSSIBLY KILN. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURG THE DAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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