Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290543 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm and humid airmass will remain in place through Monday. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. The next chance for thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High moisture environment combined with several mesoscale boundaries led to scattered to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this evening. Relative slow movement to storms particularly across southwest Ohio/southeast Indiana/northern Kentucky enhanced rainfall totals and produced areas of flash flooding in some areas. Most significant flash flooding appears to have occurred in Hamilton County near the Norwood area. With the setting of the sun, both coverage and intensity of thunderstorms have decreased. But there are still places with ongoing flooding issues due to earlier rainfall/runoff and it will take some time for water to recede. Please refer to flash flood/flood warnings and statements. Will continue to trend pops downward through the rest of the night. Expect another muggy night with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There may be a fair amount of lingering mid clouds overnight which would inhibit fog formation, but can`t rule out patchy fog forming in fog-prone areas late. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Initial frontal boundary to the north looks to wash out Monday, but models suggest that weak high pressure and lower precipitable water values will try to move down at least in central/west- central Ohio later in the day. This may keep that area dry on Monday, however sufficient moisture along with afternoon instability will likely support convective development Monday afternoon further south into Ohio/northern Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall could once again be a risk with the strongest storms. Lower precipitable waters and a bubble of high pressure press further south Monday night into Tuesday. Therefore, have continued with a dry forecast during this time. A cold front will approach late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front will push into the region at the beginning of the period. Forcing appears weak and moisture limited...but still included a chance of storms across northern counties. High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The high will continue extend into the forecast area through the weekend. This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop closer to normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thunderstorms have dissipated with loss of daytime heating. Expect BR to reduce visibilities early this morning in the very humid airmass. Once the BR burns off by mid morning, VFR should then persist as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms may develop again this afternoon but models keep them west of TAF sites. Sky cover should become rather sparse with SCT cumulus and altocumulus. Winds will remain light out of the northeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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