Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161812 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 212 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT IT APPEARS THAT PCPN HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A NORTHERLY DRYING WIND OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WHERE A FEW DEGREES OF MODERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BUMP HIGHS THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AS COOL OF A DAY IN STORE WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE COMFORTABLY COOL UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. ONE EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT WHERE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A PRETTY SOLID MVFR DECK IS HANGING IN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CLOUDS BECOMING MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON THE PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE...THINK WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS TRYING TO HANG ON TO SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO THERE IS SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST WE WILL ACTUALLY CLEAR OFF. HAVE THEREFORE LINGERED CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING CLEAR. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THIS COULD BE COUNTERED SOMEWHAT BY SOME DRIER DEWPOINTS TRYING TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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