Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190848 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 448 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. A FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR TRIED TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. AS DAYTIME HEATING BUILDS...SOME CONVECTION MAY START DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT THIS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TO OUR WEST...AS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT SOME STORMS COULD ARRIVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL DISCUSS THESE STORMS FURTHER IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM MONDAY...WE COULD WARM PRETTY NICELY WITH A LACK OF PRECIPITATION DURING PEAK HEATING. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MOST... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND INCREASING DEW POINTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...LIKELY BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...WILL HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH...THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WELL. WITH THAT SAID...THERE ARE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75 WHERE SPC HAS HOISTED A SLIGHT RISK. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY IS LOST...BUT THE TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WHEN THIS OCCURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FOCUSING THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...LIKELY CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER FORCING...SO ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE TOO BULLISH IN DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT A DRYING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUGGY LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE SURFACE FRONT COULD REACTIVATE IN CENTRAL OHIO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THERE AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEASTWARD DIVING DISTURBANCES. A NW-SE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN AS WELL WITH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG IT. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TRI STATE AREA...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE CORRIDOR OF FORCING MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TOO WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FIRST OF ALL...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AT THE TERMINALS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE IS THE HIGHEST. HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT KILN...KCVG AND KLUK...WITH SOME LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE AT KILN AND AND KLUK. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THIS LOW AND WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF AXIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH SHEAR/CONVERGENCE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE PLACED VCTS/CB DESCRIPTORS AT THE SITES WHEN THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE TROF LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED SOME...SO COVERAGE APPEARS LESS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN

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