Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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029 FXUS61 KILN 211055 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 655 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region one more day as a cold front moves east through the region today. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Biggest question with todays forecast may be the coverage of storms at daybreak this morning. The consensus of the models is to take the area of convection in central KY northeast into south central Ohio. Based on the current radar loop, if the pcpn does work east in the next couple of hours, it will be up into Central Ohio as well. So started today off with high PoPs in the east. Cdfnt will slowly move up the Ohio Valley today as H5 low spins in the nrn Plains. The atmosphere is marginally unstable along with sheer. So expect tstms to develop during the morning, but chance of severe is very low. With pw still high, there could be some periods of heavy rain. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A chance of pcpn will linger in the eastern counties early tonight before pushing ewd. Temperatures will cool to the lower 50s in the west to mid 50s in the extreme ern counties. High pressure will build across the fa Monday bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach only the lower 70s, with a few spots staying in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Monday night the new run of the models have already started to diverge. The NAM is the outlier as it brings a sfc low up the Appalachians spreading pcpn into the se counties. The other models keep this pcpn well south of the region. Therefore kept Monday night dry. The H5 low over the wrn Great Lakes splits and a low drops south. Pcpn develops ahead of the energy on Tuesday, mainly in the west. Models have forced a shift in the period of highest PoPs, now focused mainly on Wednesday. There has also been a general trend slower with the eastward progression of the upper low, which is unsurprising for closed upper systems in May. PoPs have been held back a little more significantly on Thursday, with slight chances introduced as well for Friday. This system will also result in a period of cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly improving more significantly by Friday (unless the low continues to hang around through the end of the week). Behind the low, though timing confidence is marginal, there is high confidence that the overall pattern will switch to ridging over the southeastern states through the southern Great Lakes. This will allow for another round of increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Area of rain and showers over western CWA and TAF sites is exhibiting a weakening trend and will continue to do so through the remainder of the morning hours. Isolated convection with some possible thunderstorm activity may occur at KCVG/KLUK through about 14z but this will need to be amended into the current TAF if it occurs. As the flow pulls the moisture north through the region, a break in activity is expected this morning into the afternoon. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will then move in from the west in the latter morning/early afternoon along the actual cold fropa. Continue to keep thunder mention out. Expect future TAF issuances would hammer out details with amendments to include the deeper convection as it becomes more evident. Activity will end in the evening and skies will clear overnight. VFR rain with MVFR cigs are expected this morning and these will lift through the day. Any MVFR cigs/vsbys from there onward would be with shower activity. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wed and Thurs.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks

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