Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222120 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 420 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE THE OHIO VALLEY...OFFERING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRUSH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH A CHANCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN REGION OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS HIGH IS A DIRTY HIGH WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INVERSION LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SLOW EROSION FROM THE SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE. WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH LATE. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NE TO THE MID 20S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FOCUS IS ON DEEPENING SRN STREAM TROF WHICH EJECTS NE FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. MAIN SFC WAVE TO STAY WELL SE OF OUR AREA TRACKING FROM THE GULF STATES ACRS THE SE U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TOT HE FAR SE TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL START OUT AS RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED SFC TROF TO BRING PCPN TO OUR FAR SE COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS HERE. FOR PCPN TYPE WILL HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. AS MID LEVEL NRN STREAM PHASES WITH SRN STREAM THE FLOW OVER THE OHIO VLY WILL BECOME NWRLY. WEAK SFC TROF PIVOTS THRU WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT MAINLY NORTH. HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN HAVING ITS MAIN EFFECTS OVER NORTHERN OHIO. CURRENT THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SNOW TO START SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH...IT WOULD RESULT IN COLDER TEMPS AND GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE TEMPS WITH THESE SYSTEMS WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO UNDERESTIMATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ON MONDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COULD FRONT COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 40 SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TOWARD 40 MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THIS OCCURS...SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...1500 FEET-2500 FEET WILL TRY TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PESKY LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO ERODE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES. ON FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD THE TAF REGION. ANY LINGERING MIST IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE GONE BY 15Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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