Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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954 FXUS61 KILN 091145 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region this afternoon into this evening. A weak upper level disturbance will move across primarily central Ohio Sunday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid clouds are just beginning to push into northwest portions of the forecast area. The low levels are dry and as the system approaches today it will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate. Due to this precipitation amounts and subsequently any snowfall will be very light through the early afternoon hours. As better forcing and the front approach the region and low levels saturate better chances for light snow and snow showers will be present later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s and this may limit snowfall accumulation somewhat. That being said, expect precipitation later this afternoon into this evening to be more in the form of short bursts of snow so could see a quick half inch or so. In addition there will be some lake enhancement across some of the western portions of the forecast area. Expect snowfall to be pretty variable across the region, however most locations will see an inch or less. Slightly higher values upwards of an inch and a half will be possible across east central Indiana and portions of the Scioto Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Snow showers will linger into the evening hours before tapering off overnight. Winds will pick up this evening with the passage of the cold front. This will allow for some additional reduced visibilities with any remaining snow showers across the region. Sunday will start out dry. A quick moving weak upper level disturbance will move across primarily northeastern portions of the forecast area bringing the chance for very light snow to portions of primarily central Ohio. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A compact, fast-moving short wave swinging across the region at the beginning of the period is starting to show some potential to produce a bit of light snow. So have introduced low PoPs, primarily for eastern counties. A deeper system dropping south southeast into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday will then head east Tuesday night. The associated surface will pass north of the region, but warm air advection ahead of the low will generate some snow generally north of I-70 on Monday. Then after the low moves east, cold air advection will cause snow showers to spread across much of the area, especially in a lake- enhanced axis that will extend from northern Indiana into central Ohio. As the low-level flow weakens and backs Tuesday night, snow showers will come to an end. High pressure will quickly translate across the region on Wednesday. Next short wave moving through northwest flow will bring another chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. 00Z models showing a decent spread in where the resultant surface low will track which would have an impact on how much precipitation will occur. At this point just broadbrushed chance PoPs. Another high will start to build in late in the period. It still appears that temperatures may warm up to near normal on Monday. But thereafter readings will return to below normal with the coldest readings Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. Snow across Indiana will decrease as it moves into the area and encounters dry air. Additional snow showers however will be possible later this afternoon and this evening as a cold front moves through the region and also there will be some lake enhancement as well. Winds will pick up with later today with the front and have wind gusts in later today into tonight. Cigs will lower and be generally MVFR, however some IFR cigs will also be possible. Visibilities will be reduced with snow that occurs. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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