Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 141051
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
651 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures are expected again today ahead
of low pressure and a cold front which will cross the area on
Friday. High pressure will briefly visit the region on Saturday
as temperatures begin a cool down. Additional cold fronts will
then swing through the Great Lakes during the second half of the
weekend into early next week, resulting in below normal
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another warm day is expected ahead of low pressure and a cold
front that are forecast to cross the region on Friday.
For the morning hours, low level moist ascent at the nose of a
925 mb-850 mb low level jet will bring the threat of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to west central Ohio. These storms will
be elevated in nature, so only some small hail is expected.
For this afternoon, high resolution convective allowing models
indicate that a linear convective line of showers and
thunderstorms will traverse the region, likely weakening as it
makes its way into our eastern zones. Some surface based
instability is expected with this line, but the severe threat
appears to be marginal given lower level CAPE values. In any
case, this will have to be watched, and certainly some strong
storms may still occur.
The greatest potential for severe weather is slated for late
this afternoon into this evening. As low pressure and a cold
front approach our region from the west. Low level moisture
convergence will increase across northern Indiana and northwest
Ohio. This will likely result in the development of
thunderstorms, some of which may be supercellular given
substantial deep layered shear (both 0-3 km and 0-6 km), turning
hodographs, ample 0-1 km SRHs, and SBCAPES approaching 1000
J/kg. Hence, SPC has outlooked parts of east central Indiana,
the Whitewater/Miami Valleys, west central Ohio and parts of
central Ohio in a slight risk for severe storms. All severe
weather threats will be on the table in these areas: damaging
winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. This convection will
likely congeal into a more linear structure as it moves
east/southeast farther into our forecast area later in the
evening and overnight hours. Some storms will have the potential
to produce heavy rainfall, and with the mid level flow in a
zonal orientation, some training of storms will be possible,
especially along and north of I-70. All of these threats have
been placed in the current HWO. For points farther to the east
and south, on the periphery of the slight risk, a marginal risk
for severe storms exists. The great potential for severe storms
in the slight risk area will be 5 pm to midnight, and 7 pm to
midnight in the marginal risk area. The severe weather threat
will diminish substantially after midnight has SBCAPES wane.
In the warm sector, highs will range from the upper 60s
northwest to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As stated in the near term, the severe weather threat will
diminish substantially after midnight as SBCAPES wane, and
overall instability diminishes. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 40s north to near 60 along and south of the Ohio
River.
On Friday, the cold front, slow-moving in nature, will move
southeast across our region. Some upper support with a shearing
out mid level s/wv, and low level convergence along the boundary
will continue the likelihood of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms. Precipitation will be exiting our southeast zones
late in the day. It will be cooler with highs ranging from the
lower 50s northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will briefly build into the Ohio Valley
Friday night into Saturday. Cold air advection will continue
Friday night in northwesterly flow. Lows will bottom out in the
mid 30s to near 40.
For Saturday, we will see a reinforcing shortwave begin to dig
southeast out of southern Canada toward the Great Lakes. Ahead
of it, winds will veer toward the southwest, allowing for
temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to around 60 by afternoon.
The shortwave could bring a few rain showers across the north
Saturday evening.
For Sunday through Tuesday, continued disturbances digging into
the Great Lakes are likely to carve out a mid-level trough.
This will provide for a chilly period with near to below
freezing temperatures at night and below normal daytime highs. A
chance for light snow showers will accompany the disturbances
on Monday and Tuesday. Sun angle and warm surface conditions
will likely limit any impacts of this light snow.
Though there is plenty of uncertainty in the details, it
appears at this time that the trough axis will begin to shift to
the east starting Wednesday, causing temperatures to rebound a
bit.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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For later today, from mid morning into mid afternoon, models
continue to advertise the potential for a convective line
segment to traverse from west to east and affecting mainly
northern terminals. MVFR conditions and perhaps isolated IFR
visibilities will be possible in stronger storms. Winds will
increase from the southwest between 10 and 15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots possible.
For tonight, showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage from northwest to southeast as a cold front and
associated low pressure slip into the region from the northwest.
Low level convergence and upper level support will provide the
necessary lift for the more widespread convection. Again, lower
conditions will be possible in the stronger storms (MVFR/IFR).
More predominate lower conditions will arrive behind the slow-
moving cold front toward 12Z Friday. Terminals will be adjusted
accordingly as confidence increases on the timing of storms this
afternoon and tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities likely Friday
with a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern
locations. MVFR ceilings may linger into Friday night. MVFR
conditions possible Saturday night and again on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman