Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 110520 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT NORTHERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. WARM ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. A FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL START TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE FROM PRECIP ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN COUNTIES NORTH OF I-70...WHERE MODELS DEPICT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 84 NORTH TO 90 SOUTH IN THE WARM AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE START OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK THROUGH SUNRISE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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