Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272145 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL. SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS-> ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH ON TUES OR WED. CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF LIFTS E. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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