Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141051 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 651 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Much above normal temperatures are expected again today ahead of low pressure and a cold front which will cross the area on Friday. High pressure will briefly visit the region on Saturday as temperatures begin a cool down. Additional cold fronts will then swing through the Great Lakes during the second half of the weekend into early next week, resulting in below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Another warm day is expected ahead of low pressure and a cold front that are forecast to cross the region on Friday. For the morning hours, low level moist ascent at the nose of a 925 mb-850 mb low level jet will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to west central Ohio. These storms will be elevated in nature, so only some small hail is expected. For this afternoon, high resolution convective allowing models indicate that a linear convective line of showers and thunderstorms will traverse the region, likely weakening as it makes its way into our eastern zones. Some surface based instability is expected with this line, but the severe threat appears to be marginal given lower level CAPE values. In any case, this will have to be watched, and certainly some strong storms may still occur. The greatest potential for severe weather is slated for late this afternoon into this evening. As low pressure and a cold front approach our region from the west. Low level moisture convergence will increase across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. This will likely result in the development of thunderstorms, some of which may be supercellular given substantial deep layered shear (both 0-3 km and 0-6 km), turning hodographs, ample 0-1 km SRHs, and SBCAPES approaching 1000 J/kg. Hence, SPC has outlooked parts of east central Indiana, the Whitewater/Miami Valleys, west central Ohio and parts of central Ohio in a slight risk for severe storms. All severe weather threats will be on the table in these areas: damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. This convection will likely congeal into a more linear structure as it moves east/southeast farther into our forecast area later in the evening and overnight hours. Some storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, and with the mid level flow in a zonal orientation, some training of storms will be possible, especially along and north of I-70. All of these threats have been placed in the current HWO. For points farther to the east and south, on the periphery of the slight risk, a marginal risk for severe storms exists. The great potential for severe storms in the slight risk area will be 5 pm to midnight, and 7 pm to midnight in the marginal risk area. The severe weather threat will diminish substantially after midnight has SBCAPES wane. In the warm sector, highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As stated in the near term, the severe weather threat will diminish substantially after midnight as SBCAPES wane, and overall instability diminishes. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s north to near 60 along and south of the Ohio River. On Friday, the cold front, slow-moving in nature, will move southeast across our region. Some upper support with a shearing out mid level s/wv, and low level convergence along the boundary will continue the likelihood of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitation will be exiting our southeast zones late in the day. It will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will briefly build into the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. Cold air advection will continue Friday night in northwesterly flow. Lows will bottom out in the mid 30s to near 40. For Saturday, we will see a reinforcing shortwave begin to dig southeast out of southern Canada toward the Great Lakes. Ahead of it, winds will veer toward the southwest, allowing for temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to around 60 by afternoon. The shortwave could bring a few rain showers across the north Saturday evening. For Sunday through Tuesday, continued disturbances digging into the Great Lakes are likely to carve out a mid-level trough. This will provide for a chilly period with near to below freezing temperatures at night and below normal daytime highs. A chance for light snow showers will accompany the disturbances on Monday and Tuesday. Sun angle and warm surface conditions will likely limit any impacts of this light snow. Though there is plenty of uncertainty in the details, it appears at this time that the trough axis will begin to shift to the east starting Wednesday, causing temperatures to rebound a bit. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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For later today, from mid morning into mid afternoon, models continue to advertise the potential for a convective line segment to traverse from west to east and affecting mainly northern terminals. MVFR conditions and perhaps isolated IFR visibilities will be possible in stronger storms. Winds will increase from the southwest between 10 and 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. For tonight, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from northwest to southeast as a cold front and associated low pressure slip into the region from the northwest. Low level convergence and upper level support will provide the necessary lift for the more widespread convection. Again, lower conditions will be possible in the stronger storms (MVFR/IFR). More predominate lower conditions will arrive behind the slow- moving cold front toward 12Z Friday. Terminals will be adjusted accordingly as confidence increases on the timing of storms this afternoon and tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities likely Friday with a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern locations. MVFR ceilings may linger into Friday night. MVFR conditions possible Saturday night and again on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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