Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260300 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY INTO THE NRN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY STILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN A HUMID AIRMASS...LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG I-71. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS. FOR MONDAY...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS TO NORTHERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE FRONT. NORTHERN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SW BUT A STRAY STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURG THE AFTN. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH DRY FCST. NRN PORTION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FLATTENED AS TROF MOVES THRU SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN THRU SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. IN ADDITION..WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM OR FAIRLY LIGHT...SO SOME MIST WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KLUK WHERE SOME IFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR. IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. ON SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE AND LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH DESCRIPTORS AT THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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