Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130516 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 116 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity tonight. High pressure will allow for dry conditions for Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move through on Sunday bringing with it showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Frontal boundary continues its slow push northward across the forecast area. There is a wedge of clear to mostly clear skies across eastern Kentucky and northward into WV and SE Ohio. This corresponds with an area of better WAA. This clearing or decrease in clouds is now entering the FA from the southeast. Do not expect it to be quite as pronounced with the loss of daytime heating, however still expect decreasing cloud cover primarily across eastern and southern portions of the forecast area. Models are in some agreement with this scenario. Expect fog to develop under partial clearing as there is still low level moisture present. In addition patchy fog will be possible at times across the remainder of the area even if clouds persist. Not expecting much of a drop of temperatures with lows in the 50s. Went close to guidance for low temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Clouds will decrease during the day on Friday and dry conditions are expected through the short term. WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s across the region. Went close to guidance for low temperatures Friday night with lows in the low to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mid level ridge across the southeastern United States will break down through the weekend as short wave energy moves across the Great Lakes region. This will help push a cold front through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. The 12Z models have continued to trend faster with this feature with the GFS still the fastest. Based on this, have made some forward adjustments to the onset of pcpn late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. With this faster timing, the instability also looks to be more limited so will only include a slight chance of some embedded thunder. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to possibly lower 80s. Temperatures on Sunday will depend on the exact timing of the front but given the faster trends, will make some downward adjustments to temperatures on Sunday, especially across the northwest. A cooler and drier airmass will settle into the area behind the front for the first part of the upcoming work week. Highs on Monday will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The mid and upper flow will transition back to zonal and then weak ridging through mid week. This will allow for a gradual moderating trend. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s with upper 60s to possibly lower 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As generally-VFR stratocumulus clouds depart the region this morning, patches of additional lower clouds and fog will develop. IFR fog is expected at all TAF sites over the next few hours, and there is a possibility that dense fog and LIFR conditions could build into some of the airports, especially KILN/KCMH/KLCK. Thus, the TAFs are somewhat pessimistic through the mid-morning hours, before conditions will gradually improve. Aside from these overnight concerns, the rest of the forecast is fairly simple, with light southwesterly flow and VFR conditions. There may be a possibility for additional fog or low cloud development going into early Saturday morning. OUTLOOK.. MVFR conditions and gusty winds Sunday in showers/thunderstorms.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hatzos

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