Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291755 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 155 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES TODAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE H5 S/W IS FCST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT SWINGS N OF THE FA. MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LINGERING WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IN THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS EMPLOYED IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...HICKMAN

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