Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251351 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 951 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over the Carolinas will move to the mid Atlantic coast by this evening. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley in the wake of this system. On Wednesday, weak high pressure will move east while low pressure and a cold front move into the western Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley. This cold front will push into the region on Thursday, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clouds still across the eastern and northern counties will diminish this afternoon. Some minor adjustments in temperatures due to cloud cover, but forecast highs still seem reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... For tonight, upper level low will continue to pivot toward the southern New England coast. Any lower level clouds across the region should dissipate after sunset, leaving just some high level cloudiness as high pressure at the surface and aloft reside over the forecast area. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 50s east to the mid 50s west. Mid level ridge axis will shift east on Wednesday while low pressure and a frontal system push east into the western Great Lakes and middle/lower Mississippi River Valley. We will still be between systems with a good deal of sunshine expected along with locally breezy southerly winds. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... By Wednesday evening, mid-level ridging will have shifted east of the Ohio Valley, exiting the coast on Thursday. As this occurs, the pattern will become very amplified, with a feed of Gulf moisture stretching well north into the Great Lakes. A 500mb trough will be rotating around a slow-moving low over northern Minnesota, driving a cold front into the region on Thursday morning. Not looking like a favorable setup for any strong storms, with deep-layer southerly flow along a stretched- out north-to-south cold front. There is also a degree of difference in how the overlaying trough is handled in the models -- appearing far more well defined on ECMWF/NAM forecasts as opposed to recent GFS runs. Ultimately, a relatively quick shot of rain (perhaps with some embedded thunder) will move through the region on Thursday (mainly the first half of the day) before the region ends up on the cool side of the boundary on Thursday night. By Friday, another big wave in the pattern will begin to develop over the central plains, as height rises over the Ohio Valley allow the surface boundary to return as a warm front. An initial round (or perhaps a couple rounds) of precipitation will spread into the area along and north of the boundary on Friday night into Saturday, before much of the area ends up in the warm sector going into Sunday. With a stronger (and closer) surface cyclone expected with this system, chances of rain appear more widespread late Sunday into Sunday night -- perhaps with more instability than the Thursday system as well. Temperatures appear likely to remain above normal for most of the forecast period. The front on Thursday will result in a notable gradient from west-to-east, with a more typical distribution of temperatures on Friday and into the weekend, with the warmest values in the southeastern ILN CWA. Behind the second cold front, a significant drop in max temps is expected for Monday, and the forecast has been adjusted downward for the first part of the week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level low rotating near the coast of South Carolina this morning will pivot northeast to a position off the mid Atlantic region by this evening. Atlantic moisture funneling west between this low and high pressure to the north across southeast Canada will bring some clouds to the region. A low level jet pointing westward may even bring a few showers close to the KCMH/KLCK terminals toward sunrise. BKN-OVC ceilings should scatter out by afternoon as the low level jet weakens while ridging develops at the surface and aloft. Ceilings should remain VFR. For tonight, upper level low will continue to pivot toward the southern New England coast. Any lower level clouds across the region should dissipate after sunset, leaving just some high level cloudiness as high pressure at the surface and aloft reside over the forecast area. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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