Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272352 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 752 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SSE AND OUT OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AND SHOW A MARKED DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MAINLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN TO REFLECT THE COOLER READINGS FROM THE STORMS...GRADUALLY BUMPING THEM BACK TOWARDS THE EARLIER FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE TO AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ASSOC S/WV WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE RIDGE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN. SO WHILE THE RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE RECENT CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY AS THEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD AREA. BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MAINLY THE WEST...AND THEN SOME EVIDENCE ON THE NAM/GFS YIELDS LL CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT LIFTING NE FROM KY INTO SOUTHERN OH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION...BUT THEY WERE PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME OF THE S/WV ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT SOLUTION OFFERS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON SATURDAY...WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE DAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM/MUGGY DAY. LOOKS LIKE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE MID MS VLY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OUT OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS THAT CI WILL BE THE PREVAILING CLOUD COVER. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF 6-8KFT CLOUDS TOMORROW ALONG WITH CI. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE BATTLING THE DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT PREVIOUS FOG FORECAST AND SUSPECT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TYPICAL DROP IN VSBYS RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AOA 6KT WILL PREVAIL AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS

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