Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 112120 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 420 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain showers will be on and off tonight through Thursday, when a cold front is expected to move through the area. This frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity, leading to continued chances for precipitation through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Area of showers is lifting quickly north across the fa. Expect area to continue to ne over the next several hours. Behind this area the pcpn becomes more scattered in nature. Models are showing a little better lift nw of I-71 and expect this to be where there will be a better chance of showers overnight. Can`t rule out showers farther se, so will still carry a PoP. Temperatures might cool or hold steady as the showers lift through this afternoon, but the overall trend is still expected to be general warming. This will continue into the night when temperatures will peak in the upper 50s to around 60s by sunrise. So expect lows to be at 00Z, ranging from the lower 50s in the north to the upper 50s across the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Cdfnt will push through the fa on Thursday. Instability increases just ahead of the front as a line of convection develops. There could be some rumbles of thunder as this occurs. The front is forecast to move ese through the fa during the late morning and afternoon hours. Temperatures will peak in the morning for the nw counties before falling. Elsewhere they should be close to diurnal. As the front drops south tomorrow night, the pcpn will end from nw to se. The front will stall in Kentucky however, so nrn Ky into the lower Scioto valley will see a lingering chance of showers at the end of the night. Sub-freezing temperatures will be pushing south through the night and could tickle the nrn edge of the pcpn. So there is a slight chance of some freezing rain. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 20s in the nw to the lower 30s in nrn KY. Dry conditions are expected for the nrn half of the fa on Friday, but as front pivots there will be a lingering rain chance in the south. Highs will be much cooler on Friday as temperatures will range from north to south in the 30s. The cold air will linger across the region Friday night as high pressure over the Great Lakes keeps them locked in. Isentropic lift will increase bringing pcpn back to the n. Thicknesses are warm enuf for the pcpn to develop as rain, but due to the sub freezing surface temps, there will be the threat of freezing rain. Models are showing a spread in the timing and location of the pcpn friday night, so went with a broad blend, which brings in chance PoPs across the srn portions of the fa. Will continue the HWO for freezing rain mention.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A surface high and westward reaching ridge will be over the lower Great Lakes on Saturday with a warm front south of the Ohio Valley keeping a lingering threat of precipitation over southern portions of the CWA through the day and overnight. Given cooler surface temperatures to the north and a nebulous northern edge to the precipitation potential, freezing rain is a possibility for large portions of the CWA early Saturday and again overnight Saturday into early Sunday. The front lingers over the south during the day Sunday and the European model continues to promote a drier solution with the high to the north pushing in drier air at the surface. On Monday, the zonal upper level flow will see a ridge over the west pivot northeast through the Ohio Valley with a closed surface low tracking towards northwest MO by late in the day. This would lift the warm front north through the Ohio Valley and bring in southerly flow to the region. By Monday night and especially Tuesday, the surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region and drops a cold front and subsequent surface low development in the lower Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week. This brings an ever increasing threat for persistent and potentially moderate rainfall on Tuesday, starting late Monday night in the western CWA. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day. The bulk of the extended forecast will see mild temperatures and primarily rain as the dominant weather type.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers will translate across the terminals during the first several hours of the TAF period. In conjunction with the showers, ceilings will drop to IFR. Low clouds will remain even after showers move off. Winds will gradually increase and become gusty overnight. As the axis of the low level jet tracks across the region overnight, there will be low level wind shear, but ceilings will lift to MVFR. Expect the chance of showers to increase again late in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Friday through Monday. Freezing rain is possible Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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