Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292037 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 437 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS LIFTED INTO THE TRI-STATE JUST SOUTH OF CINCINNATI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE AT BEST...BUT AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO BE ALIGNED WITH THE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THIS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER MOS NUMBERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST 40 TO 50 POPS. ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK DRY. SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES EXPECT KLUK. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...NOVAK

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