Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142120 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 420 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will depart to the east tonight. This will allow a cold front to approach the region from the west. Southerly flow between these systems will bring warmer and more moist air into the region in advance of the cold front. This front is expected to bring a period of showers beginning around midday along the OH and IN border and then progressing east during the afternoon and evening. High pressure will build back into the Midwest on Thursday and cross the region Thursday night. Another cold front will approach the Ohio Valley Friday night, moving across the region Saturday into Saturday evening. Some light wintry precipitation is possible mainly northern and eastern sections late Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will shift east of the area tonight as a cold front and mid level disturbance begin to approach. Upstream cloud trends and model guidance shows a gradual increase in mainly high level moisture for most of the night with cirrus probably thickening and lowering a bit with time. Mid level moisture will begin to increase late. Min temperatures will be coldest in outlying areas outside of the CMH/CVG/and DAY metros with the coldest min T generally north and east of CMH and some of the valleys near the OH River over southern OH and northeast KY. In these areas, a bit more in the way of decoupling should occur and clouds will increase later. Southerly flow will begin to increase aloft late tonight and will begin to transport in more moisture in advance of a cold front. A few showers should arrive near the IN and OH border around midday with a band of showers working across the remainder of the area during the afternoon and evening. Higher momentum from aloft will likely mix down prior to the arrival of the showers and along and behind the cold front. Sustained winds and wind gusts were increased a bit form the previous forecast. Some gusts into the 20 to 30 mph range are anticipated once the nocturnal inversion mixes out on Wednesday morning. It still appears that highs on Wednesday will be muted in the northwest with clouds, generally in the upper 40s. Where the southeast and northeast KY should experience some sun and in southerly flow to help readings reach the mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The cold front and mid level wave will move east of the entire region on Wednesday evening and with drier air filtering in on west to northwest, the threat for showers will end from west to east. Mid level height rises and associated surface high pressure building into the region will follow from later Wed night into the day on Thursday. Some cumulus or stratocu should linger or redevelop during the day on Thursday as low level moisture remains in place from around 850 mb and below while some flow off the Great Lakes will be in place helping keeping it in place. Temperatures should reach the lower 40s northwest to upper 40s southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The theme in the extended will be the passage of a strong cold front Friday and Saturday and the expected weather in the warm air ahead of the front and in the cold air behind the front once it has moved through the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the area late Friday through late Saturday morning. Once the front has made its main push through the region on Saturday, general rain showers are expected. The rain will taper off quickly Saturday night. As much cooler air filters into the region behind the front late Saturday night, isolated light snow showers will be possible in the cold northwest flow behind the boundary across the far northern eastern, and southeastern portions of the forecast area. No appreciable accumulation is expected. Any snow that occurs should come to an end by late Sunday morning, before transitioning to light rain showers by early Sunday afternoon. Any left over precipitation should be out of the area by 22Z Sunday. Once this precipitation has exited, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather and very cold temperatures to the area to begin the new work week. Highs on Friday and Saturday should make it into the low to mid 50s for most location in the warm air ahead of an approaching cold front. A big change is then expected to take place on Sunday and into the beginning of the week, as a ridge of high pressure brings much colder air into the area. Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the 30s for most locations, with a few max readings in the lower 40s possible along the southern edge of the forecast area on Monday. Nightly lows should generally be in the 20s from Saturday night through Monday night, which will be a big change from the 40s that will be expected Friday night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are currently observed across the area and at the TAF sites. Models continue to bring in an increase in high level moisture and cirrus threat this evening into tonight. The cirrus will linger overnight and a few mid clouds/ac may move through from time to time 03Z to 15Z. VFR should prevail at all sites through 18Z. A few showers could affect LUK/DAY/CVG as early as 15Z and 18Z. The nocturnal inversion should mix out at all sites during the 13Z to 16Z period with some gusts into the 15 to 25KT range possible from then through 18Z as a cold front approaches. For the 30 hour CVG taf, expect the threat for MVFR VIS and CIGS to hold off until around 20Z/15th. However, some AC is anticipated to work in 12Z to 15Z with winds gusting as high as 20KT from once the nocturnal inversion mixes out until the steadier showers arrive. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS and/or MVFR VIS are possible Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening. A few locations in the far north and east could experience MVFR CIGS as late as 18Z on thursday. MVFR or IFR CIGS and possibly VIS are possible Friday night into Saturday evening. Uncertainty remains as to the timing of a frontal passage during the Friday night to Saturday evening timeframe.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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