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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 140138
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
938 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND AN
EXITING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO AREA AT THE SURFACE. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW MAY
KEEP A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SKIES FOR THE MOST PART
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SKIM BY TO OUR NE ON FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WHICH SKIES WILL LIKELY GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH PERHAPS
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE AREA LATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM CHILLY UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE UPPER
50S FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME (FROM NW TO
SE). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEPART OUR AREA TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MAY PASS WEST TO EAST IN ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WOULD TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE
US IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AND THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL
DETERMINE THOSE FACTORS. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS EAST. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. AFTER SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...CUMULUS IS INDICATED BY MODELS FOR FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH WILL SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...CONIGLIO