Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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300 FXUS61 KILN 200158 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 958 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms have diminished with loss of daytime heating, and with the front now near the Ohio River. Have reduced pops to chance or lower for the rest of tonight, keeping in mind that some redevelopment will be possible in this humid airmass, especially around the stalled front. Patchy fog is expected where clearing occurs. Overnight lows will vary notably with respect to frontal position, ranging from 50 far north, up to the mid 60s south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Saturday morning the stalled front will sag southwards behind the shortwave with fog possible across and ahead of the boundary. Saturday morning the stalled front will begin to lift north as a warm front. As this happens scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Saturday afternoon the chance of thunderstorms will continue as weak shortwave moves in from the southwest. Saturday night into Sunday morning the upper level low will rotate northeast towards Minnesota and take on a negative tilt. As this happens strong upper level divergence from the RRQ and upper level diffluence from splitting flow will move into the region. PWATs at this time are also forecasted to rise to around 1.80". Given the strong signals above have kept categorical PoPs. Instability will be decreasing at the time but shear values will be increasing. Thanks to the increasing shear values SPC has put the area in a slight risk for Day 2. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... It appears that the aforementioned cold front will move slowly east through our region Sunday into Sunday night. The slow movement is in part due to the mid level ridge to our east. In either case, categorical PoPs for showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end behind frontal passage which should move out of our eastern zones by early Monday morning. Temperatures will be held down some Sunday due to clouds and pcpn with cooler air moving in Sunday night behind the front. Surface high pressure will build into our region on Monday, giving a period of dry but cooler weather. The upper level pattern will become highly amplified during the upcoming week which will eventually lead to a mean mid level trough setting up residence across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There continues to be some timing issues with the next cold front to push through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A chance of showers will continue during this period, with thunder possible during the peak heating of Tuesday into Tuesday evening. By Thursday, mid level trough will be slow to progress to the east which may keep a few lingering showers. Another quick moving system in the northwest flow aloft may bring another threat for showers Thursday night into Friday. Below normal temperatures can be expected by mid to late week with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then perhaps getting back into the 70s on Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have moved mainly south and east of the TAFs this evening with IFR cigs nudging south ahead of the front. High res models show convection continuing to nudge east with a surface cold front also moving south. The GFS and ECMWF keep the front to far north. Have trended the front farther south as winds have already turned around across the northern TAF sites. Right behind the front IFR cigs will march southwards. Ahead the front high res models continue to advertise the potential for fog ahead of the front. Saturday morning the weak front will turn around and head north as a warm front. As this happens a band of PV will sweep northeast bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the TAF sites. During the afternoon the TAF sites will move into the warm sector and we will begin to destabilize. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. For now have only added a VCTS to cover this. Towards the end of the TAF period a line of showers and thunderstorms will be approaching from the west as a potent upper level low moves into Minnesota. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Haines

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