Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 041630 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1130 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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BAND OF PCPN ACRS KY AND SRN OHIO ATTM. STARTING TO GET REPORTS OF MIX WITH SLEET. EXPECT THIS TRANSITION FROM RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SNOW THROUGH AFTN AS LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES. BEST LIFT COMES INTO PLAY THIS EVENING WHEN BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS AND FAVORABLE UPR DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST DATA...PCPN AXIS A LTL FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW SWATH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF EQUAL WEIGHTED QPF FROM...CURRENT FCST/12Z GFS/12 NAM/00Z ECMWF AND HI RES ARW. FROM THESE RESULTS HAVE NUDGED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN 2 TO 3 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THESE UPDATED AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS... THE COLD FRONT HAS WORKED THROUGH HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVE ALREADY HAD SOME OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM EXPECT ALL EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TO CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY TO SNOW. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA AND PUSHES PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH AGAIN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH IS TRYING TO SPREAD HEAVIER SNOW A LOT FURTHER NORTH. DISCOUNTED THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF HOWEVER DID NOT GO STRICTLY WITH THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. WITH THE SOUTHERN TREND OF THE SNOWFALL DECIDED TO MAKE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AN ADVISORY. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING THE SAME. THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHERN CUT OFF TO THE SNOW AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL VALUES. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES REACH DOWN TO AROUND NEGATIVE TEN ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS DECIDED NOT TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THE FRONT MAKING ITS PUSH FURTHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIPITATION WILL TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BUT IT WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT THERE MAY BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN AROUND CINCINNATI. OTHERWISE THIS WILL COME BACK AS SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL THE SNOW MOVES IN. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS IN THE DEPARTING RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AND THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRECIPITATION LULL. WHEN SNOW MOVES BACK IN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR IN VISIBILITY WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ONCE THIS HAPPENS IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY. VISIBILITIES WILL GO VFR AND EVEN LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ063>065- 071>074-077>082-088. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065- 071>074-077>082-088. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ054>056- 062-070. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...

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