Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 220513
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
Low pressure will move further away from the area tonight. High
pressure will build in through the first part of the week,
bringing drier conditions with warming temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid clouds will continue to diminish leaving clear skies through
the rest of the night. Just made a few minor adjustments to lows.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low continues to pull slightly eastward, but still
influencing especially the eastern half of the forecast area, with
shortwave dropping southward through eastern and central ohio on
the back side of the low. Have continued with a chance for showers
in the east during the day on Sunday, along with plenty of clouds.
High temperatures also impacted with eastern temperatures peaking
out near 70, whereas western forecast area with help of a little
more sun should see low to mid 70s. The upper low becomes more
broad but continues to pull slowly east as an area of high
pressure works into the west. Temperatures gradually warm to more
normal conditions with clouds pulling east and plenty of sun with
the beginning of sw flow in especially the west.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Period begins with a H5 ridge over the lower Ohio Valley, which
extends up into the Great Lakes. This combined with sfc high
pressure will provide a dry day on Tuesday with slightly above
normal temperatures as highs will be in the upper 70s across the
The H5 ridge will begin to flatten Tuesday night as a S/W swings
along the Canadian-U.S. border. This will allow some scattered
convection to possibly reach the area late Tuesday night.
For the rest of the forecast period a spring like pattern sets up.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. A WSW flow at H5 will bring weak embedded vort
maxs in the flow helping to pop convection each day which will last
into each night. Right now went with 30 PoPs as there is not a clear
signal where higher pops can be narrowed down.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday into
Friday, with lower 80s possible every where on Saturday. Lows
should be mild, as they remain in the lower to mid 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clouds have cleared across most of fcst area. KLUK already
seeing fog with lower vsbys. Will keep this in fcst through the
rest of night. Otherwise VFR conditions for rest of period with
mid clouds returning after sunrise especially in east TAF sites.
Some Cu developing by late morning/early afternoon should diminish
quickly with sunset. nortwest to north winds increasing to around
10 knots and then decreasing again with sunset.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
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