Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180254 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 954 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong low pressure system will approach the region tonight. A cold front will then move through Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Colder and drier conditions will prevail for Sunday. Temperatures will then climb to near normal for the beginning of the work week before again falling below normal for Thanksgiving.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure has pulled east of the area this evening with the entire region now in southerly flow. Therefore low temperatures have likely already occurred this morning and temperatures will only continue to warm into Saturday morning. The strong WAA can be seen on radar this evening in the form of widespread returns across Indiana. As the WAA has pushed east thunder has slowly become less prevalent which is supported by decreasing instability on the HREF. Still thunder will be possible through tonight though as elevated instability remains. This initial batch of WAA precipitation will move across the area over the next couple of hours and then exit. New zones out. Prev Discussion-> High pressure is situated east of the area and southerly flow has allowed temperatures to rise into the 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will drop off early this evening, however temperatures will rise then through the overnight hours as warm air advection increases. Isentropic lift will allow for some shower activity for the first part of the overnight hours. As the low level jet increases overnight expect an area of more widespread shower activity to move across the region. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder with elevated instability. Winds and wind gusts will increase through the night. There is a pretty good inversion in place, however with some of the shower activity cannot rule out seeing some wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph by the end of the near term.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Gusty winds will continue through the short term time period. Although gusty winds will be present through the time period there may be slightly less wind gusts during the late morning into the early afternoon hours with the low cigs and before the convection works in there may be limited mixing. The GFS has a thin ribbon of instability during the afternoon to early evening hours. The NAM has less in the way of instability across the region. Expect at least some chance for thunder and therefore went with a chance of thunder. Due to the strong low level wind field cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging winds being the primary threat. Some of the rain may also be heavy at times, however expect any flooding to be isolated in nature. The cold front will work through during the afternoon and into the evening hours. In advance of this feature temperatures will continue to rise into the 60s across most of the region. Strong cold air advection will work into the region with the frontal passage. After the frontal passage is when the strongest wind gusts are expected. 8 pm to 2 am is the time frame where the strongest wind gusts are expected across the region. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible during this time. Although the best chance of wind advisory winds will be during this time (wind advisory criteria is 31-39 mph sustained, 46-57 mph gusts), decided to have start and end the advisory before and after this time with the potential for gusty winds through the entire advisory time. As the widespread precipitation tapers off Saturday night there will be lingering low level moisture. Model sounding profiles indicate that the area will be right on the edge on whether there is enough cold air that any residual precipitation with winds off of the lake will be in the from of drizzle or flurries. At this point with it being close, went with flurries. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A secondary short wave will pivot across the area through Sunday afternoon along with the core of coldest air. Moisture will remain fairly shallow, mainly at or below 850 mb, but in weakly cyclonic low level flow, some scattered flurries or a few snow showers will be possible, with the best chance being across our northern areas. Temperatures will likely struggle to rise all that much with highs on Sunday only in the mid 30s to possibly upper 30s across our south. Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee Valley to the mid Atlantic Coast Monday into Tuesday. With A dry airmass in place and some developing WAA, highs on Monday will push into the low to mid 40s and then the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday. Short wave energy moving across the Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our area Tuesday night. Moisture is limited though so the main affect will just be a reinforcing shot of colder air. This will lead to highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s as surface high pressure again moves east across the region. Expect dry conditions to continue into Friday with some moderating temperatures as we get on the back side of the high. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High clouds are streaming across the region this evening as high pressure continues to retreat east. Late this evening into early Saturday morning isentropic upglide will commence with showers and isolated thunder activity moving across the area. This activity will move in a wave across the area Saturday morning and exit the region between 6 AM and 8 AM. Saturday afternoon a surface cold front will move into the region from the west a bringing a second round of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. The other concern for late this evening into early Saturday morning will be the low level wind shear. NAM 2 kft wind speed is showing wind speeds of around 50 kts. Due to this have kept the mention of LLWS in the TAFs. Saturday morning into afternoon wind gusts will be approaching 30 kts and continue into the afternoon and behind the frontal passage Saturday evening (momentum transfer is showing slightly less than current TAFs are advertising, but given the strong LLJ have kept speed of gusts in). Finally, most of the TAF issuance will be characterized by MVFR conditions. During heavier periods of precipitation restrictions down towards IFR will be possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger on Sunday. Thunderstorms possible on Saturday. Gusty winds between 30 and 40 knots likely Saturday into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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