Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231504 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1004 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE DISPLACED AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS WHEN ENERGY GETS TRANSFERRED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CHANGEOVER OCCURS. AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING/APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE FAR NORTH. THUS...WILL BE GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD BE WARMER IN THE SOUTH AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AND BETTER INSOLATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH APPROACHING PRECIPITATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALTHOUGH THIS COULD END UP BEING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES INSTEAD. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE CLIPPER THAT WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. LEANED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION AND NOW THE 06Z NAM IS TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN FLUX AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE ALL OR AT LEAST PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. WHERE THAT OCCURS THERE COULD BE 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND COLDER AIR COMING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BY THAT TIME ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE IN THE NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SOONER. SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER GUIDANCE IN THAT REGION WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RISE AD A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE. DID TREND LOWS DOWN A BIT THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN THE CENTER OF A HIGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN MODERATE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SE OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED NOT TO KEEP THE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER MENTION IN AT KLUK AND KILN AS LATEST TRENDS HAVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED HOWEVER IF THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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