Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 310824 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 424 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS THE FA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY. VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED TODAY. WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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