Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270613 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 113 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SOME CHANGES INCLUDE LINGERING FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THE SOUTH...WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS SOME SKY COVER CHANGES AS SOME SCATTERED TO EVEN CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE NW FCST AREA. AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER...ALLOWING DRY/COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK. WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BECOMING MSTLY CLEAR...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934). ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY... POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...NOVAK

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