Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171745 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1245 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB IS CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST. LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK STRETCHES BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH HOPE OF SEEING ANY CLOUD EROSION IN OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM CURRENT MID MORNING READINGS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO PERHAPS THE MID/UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HICKMAN

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