Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 080419 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1219 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY AND WINDS TONIGHT. LARGE CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THE CURRENT TIME THROUGH DAYBREAK. THINK THAT AFTER 12Z THERE WILL BE A MARKED INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE REGION AND I BLENDED IN TO THE LIKELY 60-70 PERCENT COVERAGE THAT WAS IN AT 15Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL TRAVEL TO OHIO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CARRY A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO AN ALREADY VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THIS SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY MODELS IN SIMILAR FASHION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AIDED BY STRONGER WIND FIELDS FEATURING A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP. A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVE EAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH LONG WAVE TROF SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AT MID WEEK. INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO ILN/S FA IN THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER IN AFTN WITH SECONDARY FRONT NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT INDICATION THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF AND EMBEDDED WEAK S/W...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLD POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY AND OVERALL DRIER MODEL SOLN TRENDS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ECMWF SOLN DEVELOPING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN DUE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. GFS SOLN IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FASTER MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM NW RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE NEXT MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN A LTL BELOW NORMAL NEXT MONDAY WITH PCPN AND FROPA. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING SHOULD WANE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/IFR VSBYS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPARSE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH...THEY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH VCTS/CB USED UNTIL TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE BETTER PINPOINTED. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY LATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE BEST AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. VCTS/CB HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING CAN BE HONED IN WITH LATER FORECASTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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