Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121819 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 219 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER ILN/S FA. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 885 MB. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE DAY... GOING MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH ONLY SOME THINNING DURG THE AFTN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE AROUND 70 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG FAST MOVING H5 S/W SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM FORCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF IN ERN KY INTO WV. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FA WILL SIT BETWEEN THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO THE NW AND THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE SE. CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN BOTH THE EXTREME NW AND SE COUNTIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE E...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SE. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH THE WPC GUIDANCE IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A S/WV WILL DIG SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM SOME ON MONDAY WITH WAA OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...S/WV WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PCPN SHOULD WANE/DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT BECOME ALMOST NIL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND GENERAL MID LVL TROUGHING ACRS THE ERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL LKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL PROGRESSIVE S/W WILL TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE BUT DEEP MSTR IS LACKING AND GENERALLY OF MODEL SOLNS INDICATING THAT ILN/S TAFS WILL BE IN A SPLIT BETWEEN RAIN AREAS. HAVE MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST WITH LOW CIGS LIFTING AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST BY AFTN AS IT PASSES. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-NW THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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