Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220513 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 113 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move further away from the area tonight. High pressure will build in through the first part of the week, bringing drier conditions with warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Mid clouds will continue to diminish leaving clear skies through the rest of the night. Just made a few minor adjustments to lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper low continues to pull slightly eastward, but still influencing especially the eastern half of the forecast area, with shortwave dropping southward through eastern and central ohio on the back side of the low. Have continued with a chance for showers in the east during the day on Sunday, along with plenty of clouds. High temperatures also impacted with eastern temperatures peaking out near 70, whereas western forecast area with help of a little more sun should see low to mid 70s. The upper low becomes more broad but continues to pull slowly east as an area of high pressure works into the west. Temperatures gradually warm to more normal conditions with clouds pulling east and plenty of sun with the beginning of sw flow in especially the west. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Period begins with a H5 ridge over the lower Ohio Valley, which extends up into the Great Lakes. This combined with sfc high pressure will provide a dry day on Tuesday with slightly above normal temperatures as highs will be in the upper 70s across the region. The H5 ridge will begin to flatten Tuesday night as a S/W swings along the Canadian-U.S. border. This will allow some scattered convection to possibly reach the area late Tuesday night. For the rest of the forecast period a spring like pattern sets up. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. A WSW flow at H5 will bring weak embedded vort maxs in the flow helping to pop convection each day which will last into each night. Right now went with 30 PoPs as there is not a clear signal where higher pops can be narrowed down. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday into Friday, with lower 80s possible every where on Saturday. Lows should be mild, as they remain in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Clouds have cleared across most of fcst area. KLUK already seeing fog with lower vsbys. Will keep this in fcst through the rest of night. Otherwise VFR conditions for rest of period with mid clouds returning after sunrise especially in east TAF sites. Some Cu developing by late morning/early afternoon should diminish quickly with sunset. nortwest to north winds increasing to around 10 knots and then decreasing again with sunset. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Padgett

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