Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260546 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 146 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HAVE REMOVED THE REST OF THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF AN EXITING SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUED AS FORECAST AND SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR OUT LATE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. PATH OF S/WV AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN FORECAST AREA AND POINTS NORTH DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES >2000 J/KG IN THE NW FCST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST INTO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL APPROACH 70 TO LOW 70S...WITH EVEN GREATER LL MOISTURE SURGE POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 40-50+ KTS NEAR/AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS TIMEFRAME...AND THEN COMBINED WITH PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING AND DIVING SE THROUGH SRN IN...SW OHIO AND NRN KY WILL BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES APPROACH 2SD ABOVE NORMAL IN STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF LLJ. INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN WORDING INTO THE FORECAST BUT PREMATURE FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE ATTM WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL RUNS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LLJ AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WITH GFS LESS SO THOUGH STILL SETTING A SCENARIO FOR PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE FA DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE THREATS SUNDAY MORNING ARE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND A HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 KT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING THESE ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE VERY LATE EVENING TONIGHT...INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. HAVE FORECASTED TEMPO IFR FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KCVG/KLUK/KILN...WHERE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF THESE STORMS BEING LOCATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK BEING AFFECTED. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...LATTO

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