Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202059 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 459 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL HOWEVER LIMITED THE THUNDER MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED. EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT AND THEREFORE LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THAT AREA. IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WHERE SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE HAVE MENTIONED THE FOG IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY THE RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WED/WED NIGHT DRIVING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT AND COOLDOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES WILL BE DECENT WARMTH/MUGGINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND ANOTHER GOOD COOLDOWN/DRYING IN ITS WAKE. IN THE DETAILS...AT 22.12Z THE MAIN FEATURES ON THE MAP ARE A NEAR 600DM ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO /WITH ERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/...A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND A WEAK/WANDERING CLOSED LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE...IS A COMPACT/STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WASHINGTON STATE WHICH WILL BE CRESTING THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/HEIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN U.S BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND WRN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. TUESDAY BRINGS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AS AN ERN LOBE OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S /C/ THERMAL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS ADVECTED IN AS IT MODIFIES AHEAD OF THE SERN MOVING S/W TROUGH. MIXING 925MB TEMPS TO THE SURFACE OFF ALL 22.12Z NWP SOLUTIONS BRINGS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F TEMPS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 60S. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT WATCHING FOR RESIDUAL HEIGHT WEAKNESS/TROUGH AXIS IN SCIOTO VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR AN AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR IN OUR FAR EAST. RIGHT NOW JUST WATCHING THAT POTENTIAL AND RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST. HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MORE ROBUST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BODILY SUPPORT PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE MI/IND/OH AREA BY WED MORNING...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY IMPACTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING INTO WED NIGHT. STILL WARM/HUMID WITH TEMPS IN MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPTS NEAR 70F ON WED. DESPITE WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE...SYNOPTIC FORCING IS APPRECIABLE FOR LATE JULY AND EXPECT BANDS OF SHRA/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN MOD/STRONG INSTBY WED AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND FIELDS - AS TYPICAL IN LATE JULY - ARE WEAK/MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXPECTED < 25KTS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW > 30KTS MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE INSTBY. THE 22.12Z GFS ALLOWED FOR A MORE-INTACT SEGMENT OF PLAINS-BASED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO ADVECT OVER OHIO AT PEAK HEATING WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES > 7 C/KM WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRONGER INSTBY/DCAPE PROFILE...BUT OTHER 22.12Z RUNS AREN/T IN THIS CAMP WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RIGHT NOW SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION AND DEEPER FLOW MAGNITUDES MOSTLY < 35KTS...BUT AM SURE SOME GUSTY STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT A MINIMUM. THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE NEXT INTRUSION OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AND DWPTS IN THE 50S...EVEN SOME HINTS OF 40S DWPTS IN CNTL OHIO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THURS/FRI SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER /70S TO AROUND 80F/ AND COMFORTABLE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT VERY STRONG TROUGH /REF THE COMPACT/STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED NEAR WASHINGTON STATE ABOVE/ AND ITS TIMING. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW WEEKS...THIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE ERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT CRESTS THE WRN RIDGE. BEST STORM CHANCES APPEAR CENTERED ON SUN /DAY 7/ AND MON /DAY 8/ BUT SOME HINTS OF LEADING ADVECTION INDUCED SHRA/STORMS SAT AFTN/NIGHT BUT THIS A VERY LOW CHANCE RIGHT NOW. WHILE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GOOD COOLING JUST BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORCAST...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT RESEMBLING COOL PERIOD OF THIS PAST WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOSTLY MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. FOG APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND AM FORECASTING IFR VSBYS FROM KILN WESTWARD AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR VSBYS EAST OF KILN. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE START OF THE DAY MONDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...LATTO

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