Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030036 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 736 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER RETREATING COLD AIR WILL BRING AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN...TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50...AND MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND SOME RIVERS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE QUIET PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. 1033MB SURFACE HIGH SITTING RIGHT OVER CNTL OHIO THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH INCREASING CIRRUS SHIELD. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AND EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF WITH THE SNOW COVER WELL INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN CNTL OHIO. THE MOST RAPID TEMP FALL WILL COME IN THE EVENING BEFORE DEVELOPING SLY FLOW /ALOFT/ BRINGS IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND CLOUDS THICKEN UP. WILL SEE SOME READINGS /NORTHERN KY/ START TO TURN AROUND AND RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GRIDDED FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE BOTH THE EVENING FALL AND THE LATER NIGHT STEADY/SLOWLY RISE. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RATHER SMALL THROUGH 6 AM...WITH THE MOST RAPID INCREASE IN CHANCES COMING TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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NOT TOO MANY TIMES DO WE ISSUE BACK TO BACK TO BACK ADVISORY/WATCH PRODUCTS BUT THE PATTERN NECESSITATES IT TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR MULTIPLE THREATS BEGINNING TUES A.M. AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FIRST OFF...THE TUESDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL. THIS IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. VERY CLEAR PER 02.12Z GUIDANCE THAT VERY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/TRANSPORT WILL GET GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SREF 850MB TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES OF 5+ SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROUGH SLIPPING THRU THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AMBIENT AIRMASS /ESP BELOW 500 MB/ IS EXTREMELY DRY PER 02.12Z KILN SOUNDING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODEL QPFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LIGHTER/DRIER IN THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WHICH IS WORRISOME...BUT HAVE ALSO SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN WHERE STRONG WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNALS USE MOISTURE EFFICIENTLY TO WRING OUT LIGHT QPF OVER RETREATING ARCTIC DOMES. THUS...AM RUNNING WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN MDLS ON TUES MORNING IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE VERY STRONG TRANSPORT SIGNAL AND RETREATING ARCTIC DOME. NOT ONLY IS THERE THAT ASPECT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL BE RACING NORTH ON DEVELOPING SSELY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST IS BEST CURRENT ESTIMATION OF OVERLAP BETWEEN ADVANCING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND TIMING OF THE TWO...WHICH SPELLS A TWO TO FIVE HOUR PERIOD /LEAST IN THE SOUTH AND MORE IN THE NORTH/ OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. GIVEN VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT OR CHANCE TO MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS SERN IND/SWRN OH/CNTL OH...HAVE OPTED FOR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HERE FOR LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS THAT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES. FURTHER NORTH...DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LONGER DURATION MAY ALLOW FOR MORE FZRA/SLEET COMBO SO WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE. TOO MUCH RISK TO LET THIS SITUATION GO WITHOUT AN ADVISORY AS MAGNITUDE OF WARMING/MOISTENING ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 02.12Z NAM/ECMWF /MEAGER ON QPF AND COVERAGE/ TO 02.12Z SREF /HIGH PROBABILITIES OF NOT ONLY MEASURABLE FZRA BUT SOME HINTS OF UP TO 0.10"/ SPURRED THE DECISION TO MOVE TO ADVISORY ON THIS ISSUANCE. NEXT UP...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY LONG ADVERTISED PER ANALOGS AND ANOMALIES...AND NOW IT/S TIME TO SWITCH HIGHER RES DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED LONG FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL ZONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BIG PUSH OF VERY ANOMALOUS/DEEP MOISTURE...WITH PWAT RUNNING 300% NORMAL AND 3 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO ON TUESDAY NIGHT. 70+KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND BACKSIDE OF SERN CONUS RIDGING SHOULD FOCUS/FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND IT SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IS SHIFTING A TAD SOUTH W/TIME OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOOTPRINT /VIA LONG DURATION TRAIN OF MODERATE/SOMETIMES HEAVY RAIN/ TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF I-71 WHICH IS WHERE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN PLACED. PLENTY OF SNOW/FROZEN SOILS TO CONTEND WITH SO STRAIGHTFORWARD TO GET FLOOD WATCH OUT TODAY. AMTS FROM 1-2" - AND WHILE CONVECTION ISN/T GOING TO PLAY A HUGE ROLE - CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS VIA MODEST DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA IN NORTHERN KY/SCNTL OH. COULD SEE BRUSH CREEK BASIN...LOWER SCIOTO...AND KENTUCKY/LICKING RIVERS IN KY REALLY RESPOND TO THIS...AS 0.5" TO 1.00" SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TIED UP IN THE SNOW PACK IS RELEASED RATHER QUICKLY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 50F IN THE SOUTH. AM A LITTLE MORE THAN CONCERNED FOR NRN KY/FAR SCNTL OHIO SO HOPING FOR A SLOW RELEASE FROM THE SNOW PACK AND RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER END OF THE SPECTRUM. FINALLY...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. LOW CONFIDENCE HERE BUT A SIGNAL I COULD NOT IGNORE. 02.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE SOMEWHAT ON COLD AIR OOZING INTO THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN REGION THAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KY/SRN OH. 02.12Z GFS AND ITS PRIOR RUNS SEEMED WAY TOO COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THROWN OUT. MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY FROM NAM/ECMWF AND THAT IS WHERE FORECAST IS BASED. A LONG DURATION RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET/FGEN FORCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WED AFTN/NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR OVERTAKES IT. THERE/S A SCENARIO /ONE OF SEVERAL/ WHERE 12-18 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW OCCURS FROM NRN KY INTO SRN OHIO...AND SOME SOLUTIONS ARE EXTREME IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANECDOTALLY...HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE PATTERN AND FORCING SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL HIGHER-END SNOW ACCUMULATION. BUT USING CLIMO AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND MARCH INSOLATION /EVEN THRU CLOUDS/ THAT WILL KEEP ANYTHING BUT HEAVY SNOW RATES FROM ACCUMULATING TOO MUCH. IT/S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT HAS MY ATTENTION AS A POSSIBILITY OF REALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER CLOAK OF DARKNESS WITH CONTINUED BANDING/FGEN FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET THAT MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM WED AFTN INTO THURS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREAS BACK FROM CVG TO ILN TO SOUTH OF CMH FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WATCH IF SOME OF THE MORE DIRE /QUICKER CHANGEOVER/ SITUATIONS GET MORE SUPPORT IN THE ENSEMBLES. HAVE TAKEN A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO SNOWFALL FORECAST IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND CURRENTLY INDICATING 4-7" WHICH NECESSITATES A WATCH CENTERED ON WED NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH NEED TO WATCH THAT THIS MAY GET EXPANDED IN TIME.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. THEY ARE 24...22...AND 20 AT CVG...DAY...AND CMH RESPECTIVELY. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING 21...17...AND 19 AT CVG...DAY...AND CMH RESPECTIVELY. WHO HAS FRESH SNOW COVER...AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY A ROLE ON HOW WARM IT GETS DESPITE AN INCREASING SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY MARCH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO IN MOST SPOTS. AGAIN...KNOWING HOW COLD IT WILL GET ATTM IS DIFFICULT WHICH WILL DEPEND ON SNOW COVER AND HOW DEEP THAT SNOW COVER IS FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE ATTM...BUT GETTING LOWER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WILL FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE. RECORD LOWS OF 2...0 AND 2 AT CVG...DAY AND CMH WILL ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY. FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT LINGERING SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. SWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR SCREAMING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE PTYPE TO BE RAIN ALOFT...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS BY 12Z IN THE 20S...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM S TO N...WITH CVG CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 14Z...BUT DAY/CMH/LCK WILL PROBABLY STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT..
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-070>072-074-077. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-056. FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ081-088. KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089-090-094>100. IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ058-059-066-073-074. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ050. FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES

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