Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 222010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley on Monday and
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
A mid-atmospheric disturbance will cross the region early on
Wednesday and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. A warm
front will form over the northern Ohio Valley on Thursday and lift
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to isolated showers over the lower Scioto Valley and
Hocking Hills will continue to move south and out of the area
of concern. They should continue to sprout through daytime
heating for the remainder of the daylight hours and rapidly wane
with nightfall. An upper level trough will move south through the
CWA this late day and early evening as it rotates around the
southward-diving closed low aiming towards the Outer Banks
tonight. Surface high pressure and a general rise in H5 heights
will help keep a dry and clear airmass over the region
tonight, permitting low temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to
around 50 for one more night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the
east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central
Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface
high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our
area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and
then around 80 for Tuesday.
nighttime lows will drop to the lower 50s monday night with
generally clear skies. Tuesday night lows will have their
temperature falls hampered by increasing clouds from the system
coming in early Wednesday, as well as southerly surface flow
pulling in warmer air. Readings should still be in the
50s...possibly around 60 in the northwest where these factors will
be found for a longer period of time.
Tuesday night will also see an increasing chance for showers,
possibly a thunderstorm. This is more likely northwest of the I-71
corridor and specifically north of metropolitan Dayton. Attm, the
chances of rain at midnight are minimal, but increase rapidly as
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.
H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.
Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will keep some VFR clouds across the
area today. These clouds are expected to move out of the region
tonight. There will be isolated wind gusts around 20 knots this
afternoon however believe they will be isolated and therefore
decided to leave out of the TAFs. Winds will decrease this evening
and for the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected except for
VSBY reductions overnight at KLUK due to river valley fog. Cu will
begin to develop late in the TAF period on Monday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday.