Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242041 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 441 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...SETTLING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A POTENT BUT COMPACT S/WV WILL LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS S/WV WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO OUR NWRN/NRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF PCPN BECOMING LESS AS ONE GOES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES THEN RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S TOWARD MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS THE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS FORCING BECOMES WEAK. WE SHOULD SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. WITH HEATING...HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM AS THEY SHOW THE BEST SOLUTION FOR AN UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY WITH THE LOW...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE LACKING A BIT. SPC HAS PLACED OUR SRN CWFA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (5 PERCENT) AND THAT IS PROBABLY OK AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF THE THREAT INCREASES AND/OR DECREASES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING 1 TO 1.50 INCHES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NON DIURNAL GIVEN THE LOW RIPPLING RIGHT THROUGH OUR AREA AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXIT TO THE EAST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PCPN AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEN...WITH A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG AND CAA PUSHING INTO THE REGION... THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FRIDAY MORNING A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTH WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 34 DEGREES F AND AND 850 TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -14 DEGREES C. SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS OHIO CLOUDS WILL ERODE. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY COLD. 850 TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -15 DEGREES C. BRINGING THIS TEMPERATURE DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES F. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX VALUES. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE WITH THE GFS STRENGTHENING THE SHORTWAVE AND DIVING IT SOUTH. THE EURO KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. EITHER WAY THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH SRN INDIANA INTO SW OH AND NRN KY. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHRA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. S/W RIDGING BUILDS IN AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD HELP BREAK OF THE SHOWERS AND PROVIDE A BRIEF DRY SLOT EARLY TONIGHT. MORE INTENSE H5 S/W SWINGS OUT OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 06Z. AS IT DOES...IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AT THE SFC...A CLOSED SFC LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE PULLING A CDFNT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAFS TUESDAY MORNING PUSHING THE SHRA THROUGH THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR IN THE SHRA TOMORROW MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER SE OF THE TAFS...SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AND WILL GUST INTO THE MID 20 KTS. CIGS SHOULD GO VFR HOWEVER THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...SITES

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