Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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240 FXUS61 KILN 251409 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1009 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will persist today, with mid-level ridging centered over the southeastern states. There will be chances for showers and storms on occasion, with a weak frontal boundary located in the northern Ohio Valley. This front will move south through the region into Friday, bringing slightly drier conditions going into the weekend. However, temperatures are expected to remain above normal into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning convection in the northern counties has quickly dissipated. There is still a fair bit of low cloud cover across the area. It will take some time for this to break up and start to lift. But once it does there is some potential for isolated storms to develop across southern counties this afternoon. Lack of shear in the south should just result in some localized heavy rainfall. Better chance for storms appears to be in northern parts of Indiana and Ohio. A front will be sagging into the area and a band of higher shear will be in place. These storms may get into far northern counties late in the afternoon and given the parameters may pose a severe weather risk /straight line wind and tornado/ as well as a heavy rain risk. With dew points in the mid 70s...temperatures will not have to warm much above yesterdays readings to get heat indices approaching 100. At this point it still appears that this will fall just short of heat advisory criterion. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... After any remaining convection dissipates during the overnight hours on Thursday, dry conditions are expected through the rest of the short term. The cold front moving into the area will be ushering in a slightly drier air mass, but the front is expected to be severely lacking in forcing and convergence. With surface high pressure moving into the southern Great Lakes on Friday, then sliding east on Saturday, moisture and convective chances should remain on the southern and western periphery of the Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will exit the region Saturday and surface easterly flow will turn southerly. Cloud cover from convection in the midwest spill into the Ohio Valley. A surface boundary is expected to lay out over the region early Sunday as high pressure builds in the Upper Midwest. This should just provide a modest increase in diurnal thunderstorm activity chances Sunday with a little more increase on Monday, both with subsequent nighttime drops in these chances. Northeast flow on Monday into Tuesday night is expected as the high traverses the Great Lakes region. Another repeat of increased chances of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday given what will become a nebulous surface pattern. While all of the potential precipitation may not contain thunder, have not tried to minimize the morning and evening chances by calling them showers, even though this may be how the pattern materializes. Just peppered any precip chances in the extended as thunderstorms. With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make increasingly uncomfortable air to the region. Some lower 80s temperatures may be expected in areas where precip develops and skies remain cloudy all day. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areas of stratus drifting across the region will impact the terminals over the next several hours. Many locations will be below 2000 ft before lifting and then scattering. So it appears that the entire area may not become VFR until close to 18Z. Otherwise, for later today, a weak cold front will approach the region by late in the day. Latest model guidance, including high resolution/convection allowing models, indicate that the region should stay dry before the cold front starts to sag into northern Indiana and northern Ohio between 21Z and 00Z. Latest runs are not conclusive on the coverage of shower/storm potential and whether they will form at all. Even if they do form, it looks like they will weaken, perhaps dissipate before making it as far south as the northern terminals. As a result, will maintain a dry forecast. For the overnight period, the weak cold front will make its way south toward the Ohio River. Winds will shift to the north. Some river fog may develop near KLUK before the front passes. Have placed MVFR/IFR visibilities for this potential. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Hickman

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