Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200601 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 201 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A FEW SHOWERS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACRS THE NRN ZONES THIS EVENING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS WILL SHOW AN OVERALL SLOW SHIFT TO EAST OVERNIGHT. DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTH THE DECK WILL GET THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING (DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LAYER) IS TOUGH DUE TO SOME EROSION OCCURRING ON ITS SRN PERIPHERY. DECK WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 TEMPS HOVER AROUND 5 DEGREES C. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT THICKENING CLOUDS THAT WILL LOWER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AC AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. A CHANCE OF RAIN THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW REMAINS RATHER ZONAL OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT ALSO AT THIS TIME THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. PWAT VALUES ALSO ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1". THINK LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GENERAL TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY (WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST). ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...FORCING AND MOISTURE DO NOT LOOK APPRECIABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. MOVING INTO SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW ROTATES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND ALLOWS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARING LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY OUT. WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING OVER CANADA REMAINING FURTHER NORTH (AS THE GFS INDICATES)...THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WOULD BE MUCH GREATER...FORCING MOST OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA (AND LIKELY INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL). A MORE SUBDUED RIDGE (AS SEEN ON THE ECMWF) WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION (ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN AT FIRST) TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE REGION. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE THUS STILL IN QUESTION...BY MONDAY IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SETUP IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT NO ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU DECK. SO DEPARTURE OF LOW DECK BEFORE 10Z WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 00Z...BUT WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WED EVENING. FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...SO HELD OF MENTION OF VCSH UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z IN THE WEST. AT ONSET...AND SHOWERS WILL COME FROM HIGHER/MVFR DECK...AND THEN ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIG POTENTIAL WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE TO BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AFTER ABOUT 03Z. WITH PRECIPITATION VERY LIGHT...NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JDR

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