Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191821 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 221 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to move southward through the area this morning before stalling out in Kentucky. This feature will lift back northwards later today into tonight. An area of low pressure will move along the front tonight into Thursday. Cooler air will move into the region Thursday night into Friday as the system begins to push off to the east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface cold front has slipped south to a position near the Ohio river. Any precipitation is limited to a few light showers in the vicinity of the front. Also, a band of low clouds lags the front into southern Ohio and central Ohio. Expect a general lull in precipitation for the remainder of the morning and into the first half of the afternoon. As the next wave approaches from the southwest, expect additional pcpn now over se MO and srn IL to overspread ILN/s forecast area. Have pop ramping up to likely over the sw by 00z and categorical overnight. Temperatures today will be cooler with highs from the lower 70s nw to the upper 70s se. Previous Discussion... The cold front is situated near the Interstate 71 corridor. This feature will continue to move to the south this morning. Isolated to scattered shower activity persists out in front of this feature. Cloud cover will decrease across northern portions of the area. This will allow for greater drops in temperatures across this area this morning. Went close to guidance for high temperatures today with highs in the 70s. The frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward later today and as it does showers and storms will develop along this feature. Instability is generally limited to south of Interstate 70 therefore kept thunder mention south of this line. Although cannot rule out an isolated severe storm across southwest portions of the forecast area this morning, believe the probability of any organized severe weather is low at this time for today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An area of low pressure begins to work into the area late tonight through Thursday. This feature will allow for more widespread shower activity across the region. Thunderstorms will generally be limited to south of Interstate 70 and southeast of Interstate 71 where there is better instability. There is the potential that some of these storms will be severe with gusty winds on Thursday. Guidance values continue to be high for pops and models are in decent agreement with precipitation potential. Due to this increased precipitation chances back up to 100 percent for Thursday into Thursday evening. Winds will pick up Thursday evening and remain gusty at times through the overnight hours and into Friday. Colder air will filter into the area. Went close to the blender for temperatures with highs in the 50s expected for Friday and lows in the upper 30s to around 40 Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some weak mid level energy will drop down the back side of the trough into Saturday. This could result in a few light rain showers during the day on Saturday, primarily across our northeastern areas. Highs on Saturday will again be in the 50s. Shallow mid level ridging will then begin to gradually build across central portions of the United States. This will lead to very slowly increasing heights across our area and keep us in a general west to northwest flow pattern through the mid part of next week. This will allow us to return to more seasonable temperatures with highs mainly in the 60s through the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface frontal boundary has slipped south of the TAF sites and stalled out e-w parallel to the upper level flow. Other than some lingering MVFR cigs at KCVG/KLUK, conditions are starting out VFR. As mid/upper level flow backs the front will lift north with a surface wave developing to our west. Scattered convection may develop and spread into the Cincinnati area after 22Z. This convective activity is expected to continue to develop northeast and increase in coverage this evening. So all terminals will likely be impacted by showers with embedded thunderstorms. Have MVFR CIGS and vsbys developing this evening. There will likely be a lull in pcpn activity at all but KDAY overnight. As the main sfc low lifts northeast through the Ohio Valley on Thursday a trailing cold front will sweep east thru the TAF sites. Axis of instby ahead of this front will lkly lead to a period of thunder, mainly east of I-71 early. Have a mention of thunder and MVFR CIGS at all but KDAY on Thursday, where have introduced IFR CIGS in the cold air in the wake of the low. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday night into Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.