Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181732 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today in southerly flow ahead of a cold front. This front will drop south through the region tonight and then stall. The front will return north on Saturday only to be followed by a stronger cold front moving in from the west on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak line of showers and thunderstorms have formed across the central part of the CWA this morning thanks to a weak shortwave moving overhead in the southwest flow. Latest KILN sounding from this morning only showed a PWAT of 1.10" but latest SPC mesoanalysis showed PWATs approaching 1.50". Think that the most likely scenario is that there is a thin band of higher PWATs coming around the subtropical ridge. There should be a brief break in the precip this morning after the initial round of thunderstorms moves through before more development occurs this afternoon. This makes sense as both NAM and GFS MUCAPE values spike with an axis of higher instability now just south of Interstate 71. Some stronger storms could have gusty winds as DCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. Prev Discussion-> Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an axis of moisture convergence. This activity will continue to track northeast and then weaken later this morning. Even though convergence is forecast to be weaker later in the day, the moist axis will remain extended across the region. Although clouds will be more prevalent in this corridor, there will be enough diurnal heating to result in a maximum in instability. So even with very weak forcing this afternoon, there may be additional scattered thunderstorms approximately aligned with I-71. Cannot rule out some strong to severe wind gusts with any storms that may become more robust. Highs will be in the 80s again with lower readings where clouds will be more persistent. It should be able to reach the upper 80s again in southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Convection that develops in the afternoon will be weakening and sagging further south in the evening as instability decreases. Additional convection that will likely occur ahead of a cold front in northern Ohio may persist longer into the evening before weakening, and so may make it into northwest counties. It is not out of the question that some of these storms could be strong to severe. The cold front will move south through the forecast area during the latter part of the night and then stall near or just south of the Ohio River. The boundary will then remain quasi- stationary through Friday. Even with quite a bit of cloud cover there will be some destabilization during the day. So the front will be a focus for more showers and thunderstorms, particularly Friday afternoon. MOS guidance was in good agreement with lows tonight and saw no reason to vary far from that consensus. There is some spread in solutions concerning how much cooler it will be north of the boundary on Friday and so generally used a blended approach to highs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern will be in place for much of the long term period. Went close to the superblend for the extended time period. Frontal boundary over the area Friday night will push northward on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in an unstable airmass. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move through on Sunday into Sunday evening as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. Confidence is high in precipitation occurring with this system. Precipitation will taper off Sunday night. Dry and cooler conditions will be present for Monday. Dry conditions will be short lived as another system will bring precipitation chances back into the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional cool air will be present as an upper level low pivots into the area. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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While prevailing VFR conditions ar expected through the rest of the day and into the overnight, scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will be generally disorganized so direct impacts at the TAF sites are uncertain, but if storms occur some brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible. Gusty SW winds will diminish in intensity overnight, and chances for precipitation will also wane after 01Z. Overnight and into tomorrow morning, a gradual wind shift to the north is expected, with an area of MVFR clouds moving south into the TAF sites. These MVFR ceilings will likely lift to VFR by early to mid afternoon. Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms will increase from southwest to northeast after 10Z, but again should remain generally disorganized. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Sunday. MVFR ceilings are possible again on Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hatzos

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