Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182322 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 622 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered south of the region will extend up the western side of the Appalachians through the end of the week. This will keep southwesterly flow across the area, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming of temperatures through the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure was located near the Louisiana/ Mississippi border this afternoon allowing for sunny skies across the region. Temperatures have quickly warmed this afternoon thanks to 850 MB temperatures near freezing. As the inversion has mixed out this afternoon high temperatures in the lowers 30s will be possible across northern Kentucky. Overnight, the surface high pressure will slowly drift east as the upper level low exits the region. This means that the Arctic high pressure will continue to weaken with southwesterly flow firmly in place across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... During the day Friday surface high pressure will be moving off the east coast and loosing cohesion. Widespread WAA will also continue with 850 MB temperatures further recovering to near 5 degrees C above zero. This will make high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s likely with freezing being reached across the area for the first time since January 12th. Mostly clear skies and dry weather will persist for Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A southerly low level flow will develop on the backside of retreating surface high pressure. In WAA pattern a chance of a few showers will develop Saturday night. Model solutions have trended slower, so will keep Saturday daytime hours dry. Temperatures are e expected to be around 5 degrees above normal with highs Saturday from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of rain shifts north thru ILN/s FA. Therefore, will continue to shift pops north and then limit pops to very low chance category. Expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday generally between the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. Models solutions diverge on exact timing but slower trend continues with system and associated associated surface cold front expected to sweep east through ILN/s FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore, will ramp rain pops Monday afternoon into Monday night. On the warm side of the system, above normal temperatures to continue with highs from near 50 northwest to the upper 50s southeast. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north counties, closer to the upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the region. This feature will provide dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR to continue on the northern fringe of surface high pressure centered along the Gulf Coast. Skies will be mainly clear in a very dry airmass, with clouds consisting of cirrus, with some altocumulus arriving on Friday ahead of a mid level short wave to the north. A rather tight pressure gradient on the edge of the high will allow southwest winds to stay above calm to prevent BR formation tonight, before speeds increase over 10 knots on Friday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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