Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 062114 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 414 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will exit the area tonight. High pressure will work into the area for Wednesday. A cold front and upper level disturbance will move through Wednesday night into Thursday bringing much cooler air to the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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More widespread precipitation is limited to extreme eastern portions of the forecast area. Some drizzle will remain across the area through the early evening hours before ending. Any drizzle is expected to end before temperatures drop below freezing. Model sounding profiles do not support a longer period of drizzle, therefore expect it to end pretty early. Have some patchy fog in early as some vsbys are reduced, however winds are expected to pick up this evening. With the drizzle coming to an end and the winds picking up, expect vsbys to improve.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday. Isolated snow showers will be possible Wednesday night. The bigger story with this system will be the temperature change as much cooler air is brought into the region. Temperatures are expected to drop down into the 20s Wednesday night. Not expecting to see much in the way of temperature recovery on Thursday especially across northwestern portions of the region. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Some lake effect snow showers and lake effect flurries will continue through the end of the short term. In addition expect a decent amount of cloud cover through this time with upper trough and winds off of the lake.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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With the region under a chilly westerly flow on on Friday, bulk of snow showers should be confined to the Great Lakes, with only a slight chance for snow showers in far northern counties. Dry weather is expected areawide on Saturday when high pressure is forecast to build to the south. A cold front and wave of low pressure will approach from the west Sunday before crossing the area Sunday night. Rain will be the primary type of precip with the front, with snow mixing in at the start and end of the event. Light precip may linger Monday in the cyclonic flow off the Great Lakes. A few snow showers will be possible Tuesday in northern locations, ahead of an Arctic cold front. Look for below normal temperatures through the period. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the upper 20s, then up to around 30 Saturday. Modestly warmer readings near 40 are expected for Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface low southeast of the TAF sites will continue to lift northeast this afternoon. As this occurs, the back edge of the rain shield will pass from west to east across the terminals. However, there will continue to be mist and perhaps some drizzle. In addition, IFR ceilings will persist. Expect to see ceilings gradually lift and become MVFR after 00Z with visibilities becoming unrestricted. West winds will strengthen slightly during this time with some gusts around 20 kt possible. Clouds will clear from west to east after 06z and winds will relax. VFR will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period with high to mid clouds and winds backing slightly but remaining at or below 10 kt. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...

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