Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140541 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 141 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...KEEPING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...UNTIL SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING. THESE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY THIN. UNDER A COOL AIRMASS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED...LOW-LYING COLD SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 70 IN THE PERSISTENTLY COOL AIRMASS. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA ALONG WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH SCANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE...WHILE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROF ACRS THE NE US AND SE CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR SE VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...OFFERING COOL AND DRY WEATHER THRU MID WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD OUR AREA. A SECOND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME MODIFICATION IN FORM OF A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HAVE CHC POPS SAT NIGHT WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. CI SPILLING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD BE THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF TODAY. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY BE PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND KLUK TAF SITE AT DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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