Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 112245 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 645 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CWA IS SPARKING SOME SHOWERS IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. STORMS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDER AND DO NOT THINK THAT THEY WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION NEEDED FOR LIGHTNING. HAVE UPPED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS MORE SHOWERS MAY POP ALONG THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. PREV DISC WITH CLEARING NOTED STILL VALID BELOW. A MIX OF CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A PERIOD LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN UP ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS NOT MUCH IF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT. SOME MODELS MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH DRY WHILE OTHERS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A POP UP SHOWER/STORM. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/STORM AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. A MINOR DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY CLIP OUR NW ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A POP UP SHOWER/STORM...OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST FOR THE WEEK...RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES ON EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE KEPT SOME CONTINUITY WHICH IS TO ALLOW PCPN TO BEGIN MAKING IN ROADS INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S ALL LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY (AND THE ILN CWA). AFTER THAT...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON MONDAY MORNING...ALL ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A SSW-TO-NNE ORIENTED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COMPLICATED...AS SHORTWAVES FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INTERACT IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY...BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS INITIAL COMBINATION OF WAVES WILL HELP LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER) OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL MODEL TIMING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE LAST FEW CYCLES...WITH A SLOWING IN THE 00Z RUNS NOW BEING NEGATED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN TERMS OF HAZARDS...NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS ARE APPARENT AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW-END THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MODEL INDICATIONS OF THE SURFACE WAVE TIMING ON THE FRONT FAVORING THE ILN AREA TO BE IN A RELATIVE MIN OF QPF AMOUNTS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE SSW-TO-NNE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT NARROW. FURTHERMORE...WHILE WINDS ARE RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE COLUMN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEIR UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION (PARALLEL TO THE FRONT) AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. THUNDER WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE WELL-DEFINED THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL PUT AN END TO THAT THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION (ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHARPENING SHORTWAVE) HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MODEL AGREEMENT WAS FAIRLY STRONG IN SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR TUESDAY WAS NECESSARY. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ILN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING...A BRIEF MIXING OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED. BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING (NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON)...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE PSEUDO-DIURNAL. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN HALF WILL BEGIN COOLING OFF (AND FAIRLY QUICKLY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS POINTS THE WAY TOWARD A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN (AFFECTING WIND DIRECTION AND ADVECTION) ARE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE TREND THROUGH 12Z RUNS TODAY WAS FOR A SLIGHT WARMING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN FACT...SSE FLOW ON THURSDAY NOW SUPPORTS WARM ADVECTION EVEN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WAS NOT APPRECIABLY PRESENT IN THE RUNS YESTERDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAFS AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP FROM W TO E. SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING SOME CI STREAMING UP THE OH VALLEY WHICH WILL AFFECT THE TAFS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. CDFNT IS FCST TO DROP S OF THE TAFS BEFORE STALLING IN KY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE S...KLUK COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WRMFNT TOMORROW. BROUGHT SOME VFR CIG THRU THE TAFS WITH THE FNT. THERE COULD A LIGHT SHOWER WITH FROPA...BUT THINK THAT THE CHC IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.