Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 291751 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 151 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN EMBEDDED S/WV ALOFT COUPLED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (MODEST LLJ)...WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPANDED AREA OF 100 POPS LATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST PCPN SHIELD PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NRN OHIO AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SPC HAS OUR SRN FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY (MLCAPE) CAN BE REALIZED. THE 21Z SREF ENSEMBLE MLCAPE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT 1000 J/KG MAY BE ATTAINABLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IF SO...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (WET MICROBURST TYPE)...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS ENOUGH TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH LOW LCLS TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WHERE STRONGER STORMS ROTATE. ALL OF THIS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN THE HWO. A BLEND OF MODELS HAS BEEN USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FORCING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...PUSHING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING DURING PEAK HEATING REQUIRES AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS. PCPN SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL ON WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES AND HAVE CARRIED 30 AND 40 POPS...MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING CHANCES TOWARD OUR NRN ZONES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TROUGHY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL /ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE/. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC WITH MINIMA CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND MAXIMA AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES WITH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. CEILINGS IN THE IFR RANGE WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK. MVFR WILL CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH AT CVG LUK AND ILN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE AS PREVALENT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS SO FAR BEEN HAMPERED BY COOLER THAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER INSTABILITY. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT SIGNS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REQUIRE AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...CONIGLIO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.