Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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732 FXUS61 KILN 211754 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today and Sunday. A cold front and wave of low pressure will bring showers on Monday. Showers will linger on Tuesday when an upper trough is forecast to move in from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure centered over the Appalachians this morning will shift slowly east through this afternoon. This will allow for a continuation of some mid and high level clouds to push overhead through the day today, leading to partly cloudy conditions. In light southerly flow on the backside of the high, expect highs today in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure will continue to progress northeast to the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. No precip is expected again, though clouds will increase as moisture transport grows ahead of a cold front and upper trough. Even with diminished insolation, continued warm advection will allow highs in the mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weather pattern change to take place with mid level ridge shifting east and long wave trof settling across the northern tier of state and into the Great Lakes early next week. Model solutions continue to trend toward a slower onset of precipitation. Therefore, have held off pcpn until late Sunday night with the approach of surface cold front. Model solutions continue to differ on timing of long wave trof and therefore the track of southern cutoff mid level low. These differences will affect the amount of QPF and placement of heavier rain axis. Will ramp pops up to likely early Monday afternoon and categorical during the late afternoon into Monday night as surface wave develops along the surface front. Expect cooler temperatures Monday with highs in the upper 60s west to lower 70s east . Rain event of 1 to 2 inches will be possible early next week but due to the uncertainty of the interaction with the cutoff low, confidence in placement of the heavier rain axis is low. Have a mention of moderate rain Monday afternoon into Monday night. Long wave mid/upr level trof to settle into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. Model solutions have trended deeper with this feature. This will keep a chance of a shower in the forecast with the highest pops north Tuesday. Highs Tuesday are expected to be a little below normal, and generally between 55 and 60. A secondary s/w trof to drop down into the mean trof position keeping the threat of showers in the fcst Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with highs in the lower 50s, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Depending on cloud cover, frost will be possible Wednesday night with lows in the mid/upr 30s. After a cold start, temperatures will moderate some on Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Flow backs with next front approaching the area late in the week into next weekend. Latest ECMWF solution is more amplified and therefore slower than progressive GFS. Due to low confidence have limited pops to low chance Friday afternoon west and then across the area Saturday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Friday of 60 to 65. Clouds and pcpn will hold temperatures down Saturday with highs of 55 to 60. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level ridging will continue to shift off to the east through the TAF period. This will allow for some mid and high level clouds to continue to overspread the region. Southerly flow will also gradually increase as we get on the back side of the high. This may help keep winds up a bit tonight so will not hit KLUK quite as hard with fog overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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