Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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908 FXUS61 KILN 160552 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1252 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will move east across the region tonight. An upper level low will move slowly traverse across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday, keeping skies mostly cloudy along with a chance of flurries. High pressure is then expected to build into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday night into Thursday. Cold weather through mid week will give way to modifying temperatures by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Southwest to northeast oriented band of snow keeps getting surges of enhancement along it with the HRRR/RAP showing at least one more late tonight. Thus have slowed the progression of the back edge of the precipitation. This necessitated extending the winter weather advisory for much of the remaining area. Could see another inch of accumulation in some areas. Latest forecast temperatures and winds suggest that the southern fringe of the wind chill advisory may be marginal, but see no reason to make any changes to it. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will move southeast into the region on Tuesday. Stratocumulus clouds will be on the increase from the northwest as the day progresses. Given that this cloud layer will intersect the favored dendritic growth zone, and some shallow instability/steep low level lapse rates will be present, will have to bring a chance of flurries through the region during the day as the 850 mb RH max/850 mb trough moves into the region. It will be very cold with highs ranging from 10 to 15 most locations, except the far southeast where highs may reach the upper teens. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, upper level low will continue to move southeast, eventually exiting the region by Wednesday evening. Stratocumulus clouds will linger. Will also have to maintain a chance of flurries until the 850 mb RH max/850 mb trough axis moves out of the region. Clouds will keep temperatures from getting too cold Tuesday night, ranging between 0 and 10 above. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the upper teens to the lower 20s. A little wind Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will allow for wind chill values to range between 0 and 10 below zero. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Departing l/w trof will see ridging build into the midsection of the country and then the Ohio Valley. NW flow aloft will turn westerly during the day Thursday. A disturbance will cross east through Michigan but the latest model runs keep it generally dry and confined well N of Ohio and CWA Thursday night. Zonal flow sets up after this and becomes more southwest Saturday night with a building h5 ridge over the region and strengthening l/w trof deepening as it moves east of the Rockies. This trof cuts off early MOnday in the Upper Midwest. South flow ahead of it in the Ohio Valley will pump moisture and mild temperatures to the region for a welcome warming trend. Sunday night lows in the warm sector ahead of the associated surface low pressure and frontal system will be in the low 40s. This is after daytime highs break 50 degrees for just about everyone, possibly nudging towards 60 over Kentucky, warmer all-around if cloud cover loses out to sunshine. Sensible weather on Saturday and Sunday shows that the models are rapidly moistening the column and likely putting out erroneous QPF fields in the Ohio Valley without any upper support for shower activity. A sprinkle may occur given strong low level convergence, but I am pessimistic at this solution and lowered pops a bit, but hedged on keeping some slight chance in for Saturday and overnight. Felt better being able to dry out the southeast and Ky counties during this time. Sunday will see ridging aloft but some vorticity maxima may eject ne ahead of the main low and higher chances of rain were necessary in the northwestern CWA early given proximity of the warm front. Felt confident to lower these pops during the day and then ramp them up from w-e later overnight. This is the slower progression of this system but the continued trend in the models. Did not entertain likely chances of rain until daylight hours Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Arctic front will move through the Columbus terminals very early in the period shifting winds to the west. Stubborn band of snow across the region will finally clear all TAF sites before 12Z. Observations upstream as well as near term guidance suggests that lower clouds will diminish before 12Z as well leaving VFR conditions. At this point, it appears that an increase in low level moisture which may result in MVFR ceilings redeveloping will not occur until after 18Z. However, confidence in the low cloud forecast is low. Once MVFR ceilings become reestablished, they will likely continue through the end of the period with a lower to below 2000 ft forecast. West winds around 10 kt will diminish a bit during the day and then back to southwest tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Chill Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>054-060>063-070>072. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ063>065-072>074-077>080-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ081-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>096. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for KYZ097>100. IN...Wind Chill Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for INZ050- 058-059-066-073-074. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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