Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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030 FXUS61 KILN 031750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1250 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PCPN HAS MOVED E OF THE FA...SO CLEANED UP ANY LINGERING POPS IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. BACKEDGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE EAST. DRY SLOT BEHIND THE SFC LOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CAA CLOUDS BUILD SE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL ACROSS THE W...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SHOULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN FREE FROM PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE FA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S ON THURSDAY. A RISE TO THE LOWER 40S IS INDICATED FOR FRIDAY DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MONDAY AND ARCTIC TYPE AIR. PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE REGIME. WEAK FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CHANGE OF AIR. WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE S/W AND COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH FALLING TEMPS. COLDEST AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN THIS REGIME WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH COLD AIR AND SNOW. HAVE GONE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TAFS ARE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WRN TAFS AND SCATTERED/BROKEN CU AFFECTING CMH/LCK. WRAP AROUND CAA CLOUDS OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD REACHING THE WRN TAFS AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS THE DECK SETTLES OVER THE TAFS...DROPPING AS LOW AS 1500FT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ALSO AS THE CLOUDS COME IN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. H9 MOISTURE WILL LINGER PAST 12Z THU...KEEPING CIGS MVFR. H5 LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE SWINGING UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENUF LIFT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 18Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ADD VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...SITES

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