Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240621 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 221 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH IT...THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR FA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL LINGER A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NAM IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SOME RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING HIGHS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YDA/S SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH E-W ORIENTED FRONT STALLING OUT IN TN VLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL OVERRUN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES AND TRACK NORTH DURG THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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