Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231852 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 252 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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STRATUS / STRATOCUMULUS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT MOST...SOME VERY THIN UPSTREAM CIRRUS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST...WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT. UNDER SLIGHTLY WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE TONIGHT...AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S (SOUTHWEST CWA) TO UPPER-TO-MIDDLE 30S (EAST / NORTHEAST CWA). IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST (ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DO NOT BECOME COMPLETELY CALM)...BUT THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DEFINITELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY AS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR VTA/LHQ SUPPORT LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 30S. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES...FROST APPEARS MORE LIKELY FURTHER EAST (WHERE AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED)...BUT WILL ALSO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO (AND INCLUDED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS) FOR A SEGMENT OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...AS THE AXIS OF A RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS...GRADUALLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH A DAY OF FULL SUN (AND DRY NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS)...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT RISE FROM THE EARLY MORNING LOWS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A FORECAST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE / RAW MODEL NUMBERS...ALLOWING FOR UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHERN / NORTHEASTERN CWA. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES...IT WILL REPRESENT A TEMPERATURE CLIMB OF AROUND 35 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. AFTER A MILDER NIGHT GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAST...AND IN FACT...THE ILN FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WELL-ALIGNED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CREATING A BETTER PATTERN FOR THETA-E ADVECTION THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY) IN ADDITION TO A LARGER RISE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS (MID 40S ON SUNDAY TURNING INTO MID 50S ON MONDAY). THIS SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SOME SUBTLE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGER 850MB FLOW / SUBTLE 925MB-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AND OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ONLY LATER...ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THUS...A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH 20-40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > AN EAST-WEST FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE JUST STAYED WITH MID-RANGE POPS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUT IT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS MID WEEK...A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN EASTERLY THIS EVENING AND SOME CI CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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