Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221023 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 623 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers will be possible across the Scioto Valley this afternoon as a low pressure system pushes off to the east. High pressure will slowly build in from the west Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clear skies are in place across the area early this morning and this has allowed for some areas of fog to develop, primarily across southeast portions of our fa. With light winds, this could become a bit more widespread through daybreak so will allow for some patchy dense fog through mid morning across the south/east. Short wave energy will drop down the back side of the east coast upper level trough through this afternoon. This will combine with some weak instabilities to result in a chance of a few showers across mainly eastern portions of our FA this afternoon. Northerly low level flow will lead to some continued weak CAA through the day. With a little better cloud cover likely across the east, will range highs from the upper 60s to around 70 in the east to the lower 70s in the west. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and then the upper 70s for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The H5 ridge will begin to flatten Tuesday night as a S/W swings along the Canadian-U.S. border. This will allow some scattered convection to possibly reach the area late Tuesday night. For the rest of the forecast period a spring like pattern sets up. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. A WSW flow at H5 will bring weak embedded vort maxs in the flow helping to pop convection each day which will last into each night. Right now went with 30 PoPs as there is not a clear signal where higher pops can be narrowed down. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday into Friday, with lower 80s possible every where on Saturday. Lows should be mild, as they remain in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Weak s/w rotating around low will push south into fcst area this morning. Mid clouds will increase with cu developing in the afternoon. Isolated shra and possible thunder will stay mainly away from TAF sites and thus not mentioned with low probability. Dense fog at LUK should dissipate quickly this morning and then return later tonight. Winds increasing to around 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Padgett

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