Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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192 FXUS61 KILN 201054 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 654 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms again today. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing yet another chance for storms, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Frontal boundary has pushed down to around the Ohio River. North of the front low clouds and fog have formed. There has been isolated reported of the fog being dense, but not widespread enough for an advisory. Will issue another SPS to talk about patchy dense fog. The front will begin to move back to the north today. As it does, diurnal heating will begin to initiate convection. Went with likely PoPs for the sw 2/3 of the region which will be closest to the front. Slightly lower POPs are expected in Central Ohio. Once again CAPES will reach several thousand J/kg. A couple of the storms could reach severe limits, especially in the Cincy Tri-State region. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 70s across the nw counties to the mid 80s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight a deep H5 low will lift ne through the northern Great Plains. As this occurs a sfc low is pushed e ahead of it. While the models are still showing convection affecting the region tonight, they are now showing large differences in the coverage and therefore possibly the severity. There is enough of a signal to keep the categorical PoPs late tonight into tomorrow. The following model runs will have to be watched to see if anything changes. The cold front will be slow to push through the region Sunday, as the H5 low spins to the west. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s with the pcpn keeping temperatures down. The backedge of the pcpn will reach the wrn counties late Sunday afternoon, but it will linger in the east for the first part of Sunday night before ending. Lows Sunday night will range in the 50s. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather for Monday, but also cooler temperatures as highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper level pattern will become highly amplified during the upcoming week which will eventually lead to a mean mid level trough setting up residence across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There continues to be some timing issues with the next cold front to push through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A chance of showers will continue during this period, with thunder possible during the peak heating of Tuesday into Tuesday evening. By Thursday, mid level trough will be slow to progress to the east which may keep a few lingering showers. Another quick moving system in the northwest flow aloft may bring another threat for showers Thursday night into Friday. Below normal temperatures can be expected by mid to late week with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then perhaps getting back into the 70s on Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The low stratus with cigs blo 1kft will lift this morning, with a rapid improvement of vsbys shortly after daybreak. The weak front that is south of the CWA in central KY will head north as a warm front today. Models are limiting any shower activity this morning and the low stratus could inhibit how warm we do get by later afternoon. Although confidence remains low, showers could still pop this morning. Warm sector will be over the region this afternoon and shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to initiate. KCMH/KLCK never quite get the warm front through in time to let the thunderstorms pop - kept vcsh over them for this afternoon/evening and then let the overnight storms have thunder towards daybreak Sunday. Towards the end of the TAF period a line of thunderstorms will be approaching from the west as a potent upper level low tracks into Minnesota with a surface low near Lake Superior. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Franks

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