Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180931 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 431 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN ANOTHER MINOR SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO COME IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND MORE SCATTERED FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. SO WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10 THIS MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE. THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR A STEEPER INVERSION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL AROUND 0 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. THEN THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY. WENT AT OR BELOW COLDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BUT USED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. UPPER FLOW WILL BACK OVER THE WEEKEND AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE LIFTS UP THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL TRACK AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FROM AROUND ST. LOUIS TO DETROIT. THERE WILL BE A STRONG INFLUX OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY BUT ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. A STRENGTHENING NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST ACRS NW OH AND CENTRAL IN. THE BAND IS MOVING EAST AND IS TIMED THRU THE TAFS SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. WHEN THE BAND MOVES THROUGH THE TAFS CONDS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY. SINCE THE BAND IS SMALL THIS WINDOW SHOULD ONLY BE TWO TO THREE HOURS. VERY RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BAND MAY HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR. DURING THE LATE MORNING COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE CIGS AROUND FL030 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DURING EVENING MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE W TO SW AT 5 TO 15 KTS UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SW 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL LOSS THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND 23Z AND BECOME SW 8 TO 15KT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. && .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 18 CVG...12 DEGREES...1880 CMH...10 DEGREES...1880 DAY...13 DEGREES...1959 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18 CVG...26 DEGREES...1951 CMH...26 DEGREES...1903 DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAYDU CLIMATE...

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