Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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227 FXUS61 KILN 242356 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 756 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will begin to approach the area overnight and move through the region on Monday. Hot and humid conditions will be present in advance of this feature with thunderstorms possible at times.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Temperatures will continue to drop off this evening therefore have cancelled portions of the excessive heat warning and heat advisory. Kept the portion that remains in effect through Monday evening. Only a couple isolated showers remain across the area at this time. Additional thunderstorms will approach the region overnight however this activity will be on a weakening trend as it approaches. Due to this have limited precipitation chances to the slight chance category across most of the area and chance category across the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Heat and humidity will continue for Monday. Heat index values will be near 100 again with a better chance for this across southern portions of the region. Continued the heat advisory and excessive heat warning across southern portions of the region for Monday. A cold front will move through on Monday. There has been some variability with how much convection will develop with this feature, however given airmass in place believe that preciptiation chances will be likely across the southern portions of the forecast area by late in the afternoon and early evening hours. A few of these storms may reach severe limits with damaging winds the primary threat. Boundary will hold up across southern portions of the area and therefore linger preciptiation chances across the far south through Tuesday night. With CAA across the northern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday believe cu will develop during the day. Even with the CAA expect high temperatures on Tuesday to be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Stationary frontal boundary looks to be positioned along or just south of the Ohio River Wednesday. Boundary will divide a very moist air mass to the south from a relatively drier air mass to the north. Will continue with chance pops for thunderstorms close to and south of the front on Wednesday. Boundary will lift north as a warm front late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow precipitable water values to increase northward, placing the CWA back in a very moist environment for Thursday. Models show a shortwave approaching late Thursday or Thursday night. Timing is still somewhat in question, but there is decent consensus on the track which will bring it across the Ohio Valley. Therefore, begin to increase pops for Thursday afternoon and will continue chance pops into Thursday night for possible influence from shortwave. Additional shortwaves may affect the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. Details associated with the shortwaves (such as track/timing/strength) are in question and will need to be resolved with time. But the potential for shortwaves combined with a warm moist air mass means that chance pops for convection will continue through at least Saturday. Eventually, a cold front may move through and this could occur late Saturday into Sunday but confidence is low on the timing of the frontal passage. Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above average values through the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Cu field has developed this afternoon as remnants of an MCS continue to track through the Great Lakes region. A few -SHRA/TS have popped across west-central and central Ohio this afternoon given high instby environment. Expect this activity should stay north of the terminals, so have kept sites dry through today. For this evening, convection will likely develop across parts of northern IL/IN and track SE. CAMs continue to indicate this activity will weaken as it moves into central Indiana and potentially extreme western Ohio. With instby waning after 02z and convection moving away from primary forcing, it seems likely that activity will dissipate before potentially affecting western TAF sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY. Therefore, have kept dry trend through 06z despite uncertainty regarding exact convective evolution. Main concern overnight will be potential for BR to form again, especially for KLUK and KILN. Although conditions do not appear to be ideal for widespread BR development across the region, MVFR VSBYs are once again possible. West-southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected Monday as a cold front drifts south through area. With high instby, plenty of moisture, and a source for lift, expect that SHRA/TS will develop across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There exists uncertainty on exact timing and location of potential initiation, so have handled this with a VCTS at all sites starting at 16z (although initiation may be end up occurring after 18z Monday). OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and again Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ073-074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for INZ075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...KC

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