Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 122335 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through the first half of the week. An approaching front will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Stratocumulus will dissipate this evening with the loss of heating leaving clear skies. Winds will become light as high pressure builds further into the area. Guidance blend looked reasonable for lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will extend across the region through the period. Expect another day of diurnal cumulus. Little variation from day to day in highs or night to night in lows. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term will open up on Monday with two upper level lows. One upper level low over the Hudson Bay and another over Canadian west coast. This far south only weak amplification in the flow will be present with mostly dry conditions for Monday into Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a weak shortwave rounding the base of the upper level low and pushing through Michigan Tuesday morning, but with enough dry air in place (PWATs ~1.15" via GFS) the area will remain mostly dry. The main question for Monday into Tuesday will be how much we warm up. Monday 850 mb temperatures remain around 15 degrees C and then start to warm towards 18 degrees C by Tuesday. The exact timing of when the upper level disturbance will eject east is still unclear though so have only nudged temperatures up into the mid 80s for Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday models begin to diverge on how to move the upper level low east out of the western Canadian provinces. The GFS has slightly more amplified flow which would allow for more of warming trend to take place into Friday. The ECMWF has a much more zonal flow advertised. Either way shower and thunderstorm chances look to return to the forecast area Wednesday as moisture rich air washes northeast with a warm front (PWATs rising to around 1.80" via GFS). Thursday into Friday a weak surface cold front will move through the area with drier air working in from the northwest. Uncertainty remains high this far out though as both the GFS and ECMWF don`t know exactly what to do with a mid-level ridge over the Florida Panhandle and how much to amplify the ridge off the west coast. By Saturday morning the ECMWF only has the front stalled across northern Ohio. If this occurs rain chances will continue into the weekend. For now have kept the area dry given the uncertainty. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Still a few lingering cu across the area but these should dissipate over the next hour or so as we continue to lose the daytime heating. With clear skies and light winds overnight, some br development will be possible, especially in the river valleys across the south, mainly affecting KLUK. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build east across the southern Great Lakes through the day on Sunday with just some fair weather cumulus clouds expected through the afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.