Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 212124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
424 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017
Showers will be possible through tonight along a weak cold
front. Dry weather will be found on Wednesday as return flow
sets up ahead of the next system. A warm front will lift north
through the Ohio Valley Thursday night, and then some
thunderstorms may develop with the passage of a cold front
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect the pcpn over srn IN to develop ewd this afternoon as
moisture and lift get pulled into the region ahead of a cdfnt.
Convergence across nrn OH is much weaker and the consensus of
models is dissipating this pcpn. So increased the PoPs this
afternoon and early evening to high chance around the Ohio
River. At this time, did not go to likely, but this might be
necessary if some of the wetter models are correct.
The bulk of the pcpn will pivot ewd this evening, affecting
mainly srn OH/nrn KY, but can`t rule out some isolated pcpn in
Central Ohio after midnight. Kept PoPs in the 20s however.
Low temperatures tonight will remain well above normal,
actually several degrees above the normal highs for this time
of the year, as the will only fall to the around 50.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
What is left of any frontal convergence will be found across
eastern sections as Wednesday begins. This will keep a 20 to 30
percent chance of showers in the forecast for the east. As the
day progresses the chance should dissipate. Abundant low level
moisture will keep the skies cloudy for the morning, but some
mixing by afternoon should bring some peaks at the sun. With H8
temperatures around 8C, highs should be able to reach the mid
The region will be warm sectored Wednesday night, but the
models are showing quite a bit of cloud cover. In addition,
several models are bringing a vort max thru the zonal flow. This
is providing lift and causing some scattered showers to
develop, mainly along and se of I-71. Lows will remain warm with
lows in the lower to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No large scale swings in the forecast this afternoon for the
extended period. Tried to limit shower activity on Thursday
first in the southeast during the morning as the warm front
lifts northeast through the region, then along and north of the
I-70 corridor in the afternoon and early evening. Forcing then
lifts well north and away from the immediate CWA, with good
southerly flow setting up on Friday. Thursday night lows will be
unseasonably mild (for high temperatures) and be in the low to
mid 50s. Friday will see highs ahead of any rainfall reach into
the 70s. Have pushed back the threat of showers on Friday to
ramp up in the afternoon, and added the thunder threat from the
afternoon into the overnight period. Feel that most of the
convective threat will occur after 0z, peaking with fropa during
the late evening, and then rapidly ending by daybreak in the
Saturday will see cold pool convective showers possible and
experience more normal high temperatures in the 40s. The lower
lcls in the cool airmass may support some snow showers in
northern portions of the CWA - again north of the I-70 corridor
and primarily late in the day and early evening with quickly
waning precipitation chances.
The cooler temperatures will last through the weekend and then
see a warmup for next week, along with increasing threats for
rain, developing into thunderstorms with a cold frontal passage
expected Tuesday or Wednesday. Expect any rain in the warm
sector with the next system to be minimal and then be
concentrated with the diurnal passage of the front. Even with
this, blended models and have some low chances for showers
starting as early as Monday.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 split flow pattern across the eastern U.S. will bring a
cdfnt into the region tonight. Previous runs of the models had
been forecasting some dying showers across nrn OH, with a more
organized area of showers developing over srn/OH/nrn KY,
associated with moisture from a closed H5 low in the deep south.
Consensus of the 12Z models backed off on the nrn pcpn area and
are now focusing more on the srn pcpn.
So dried out KDAY, and added a tempo SHRA to KCVG/KLUK
beginning around 21Z and lasting to around 00Z. By then, the
area of pcpn should be pivoting to to e and will brush KILN and
then KCMH/KLCK later in the night.
With weak low level flow and a moist boundary layer clouds will
lower overnight. All tafs sites should drop to IFR cigs between
06-12Z. MVFR fog is also expected.
The fog and low cigs will linger after 12Z Wednesday. Vsbys
should recover to VFR by 15Z, but IFR/MVFR will linger into the
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. MVFR ceilings
and vsbys are possible Saturday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961)