Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130843 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 443 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTROL THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A SHARP H5 TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS KICKING OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM MICHIGAN DOWN INTO INDIANA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PCPN WILL SLIP TO THE N OF THE FA...BUT THE SRN EDGE COULD BRUSH THE NW COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRIED 20-30 POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS TO COVER THIS. ALSO A FEW SPRINKLES COULD AFFECT THE SE HALF OF THE FA AS CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A WEAK SFC TROF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE S/W WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE FA THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S REGION WIDE. ON SUNDAY...WITH SUN AND SOME CAA...SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BACK THE LOWER 70S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. S/W ENERGY WILL DEVELOP A H5 TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A CDFNT TOWARDS THE REGION. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THE PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE NW COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTN...WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. UPPED POPS IN THE NW. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE 12Z CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. WILL GENERALLY TAKE A MODEL BLEND WHICH LINES UP FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A WARM UP AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW TOWARD FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CIGS JUST BELOW THE MVFR/VFR INTERFACE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT THIS TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD BRING SOME VFR SHOWERS TO KDAY AS IT PASSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FAIR WX CU IN THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BREAK UP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD PUSH WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LITTLE IF ANY FOG WILL BE EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...FRANKS

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