Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 220222
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1022 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016
High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the
region Monday and Tuesday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will
return Wednesday night into Thursday night as a cold front drops
down into the area. High pressure and dry conditions will then
build back in for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 confluent flow to work into the region overnight into Monday.
Surface high pressure over the Mid Ms Valley to build east
becoming centered over the Ohio Valley Monday. Diurnal cu has
dissipated leaving mostly clear skies for the overnight hours. Dry
airmass with sfc dewpoints dropping into the middle 50s. Have
tweaked down sky and temperatures slightly overnight. Expect lows
to range from the mid 50s nw to the upper 50s se.
A drier airmass is settling in across the region this afternoon
with dewpoints down into the 50s across much of the area. Some
sct-bkn diurnal cu developed through late morning and expect these
to dissipate as we lose the daytime heating and head into early
evening. High pressure will continue to build eastward into the
Ohio Valley Region overnight. With mainly clear skies and light
winds, we should have decent radiational cooling overnight with
lows dropping down into the 50s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift slowly east across the Ohio Valley Monday
into Tuesday. This will keep a dry airmass in place over our area
through the short term period with mainly clear/mostly sunny
conditions expected Monday into Tuesday night. Weak low level CAA will
persist into Monday morning before becoming more neutral through
the afternoon. This should keep highs a few degrees below normal
on Monday, generally in the upper 70s. As the high starts to shift
off to the east, we will get into some return flow through the day
on Tuesday, with highs rebounding up into the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid and upper level ridge will build over the Gulf Coast States
through the long term period. As it does, the mid level flow over
the Ohio Valley will transition from southwesterly to more of a
Zonal pattern through the weekend. Initially, some weak short
wave energy will lift northeastward across our region Wednesday
into Thursday. It looks like a weak warm front will lift north
across the area through the day on wednesday, but the airmass
remains fairly dry so will maintain a dry forecast at this point.
We will begin to moisten up Wednesday night into Thursday as a
weakening cold front drops down into our area. This will lead to
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday
night into Thursday. Pcpn should then taper off Thursday night
into Friday as the front washes out across our area. Dry weather
is then expected for the weekend as the ridge builds northward
into the Ohio Valley. Highs through the period will generally be
in the low to mid 80s.
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the mid MS Vly to build east into the
Ohio Valley Monday. Expect VFR to persist through the forecast
period, with exception of KLUK where BR may reduce visibility
early Monday. Fog is expected to brief and limited to MVFR in dry
Scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening with
only some scattered high level clouds overnight. Scattered cumulus
clouds expected Monday.
Northwest winds around 10 kts will become light overnight and then
northwest winds at less than 10 knots on Monday.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.