Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260252 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION (LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HICKMAN

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