Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240825 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 425 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PROVIDE COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS SOUTH AND EAST OF CINCINNATI. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT TRIGGERED BY A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...DIMINISHING TO CHANCE BY MID MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TRAVEL EAST. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS EXIT BY AROUND NOON...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM IN A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. COLD ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY EVENING WHEN A DISTURBANCE MAY SPARK CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS. ON SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ON SUNDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ONE OR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO THE WEST OF THE ILN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING THEM THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. POPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT OF THIS CONFIDENCE...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS SOON AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND A SURFACE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF RATHER ROBUSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...IN A WELL-ADVERTISED PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS SHOW THE COOLEST AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY RATHER THAN LATER IN THE WEEK...THOUGH STILL ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE (AND LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN).
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THIS FRONT IN NRN KY HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION BUT ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHUD REMAIN SHOULD OF THE TAF SITES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT THE SRN TAF SITES WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THESE CIGS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS BACK THIS UP WITH MOISTURE INDICATED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR THESE CIGS INTO THE LATE AFTN WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH BUILD IN. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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