Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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526 FXUS61 KILN 220222 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1022 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region Monday and Tuesday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday night into Thursday night as a cold front drops down into the area. High pressure and dry conditions will then build back in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 confluent flow to work into the region overnight into Monday. Surface high pressure over the Mid Ms Valley to build east becoming centered over the Ohio Valley Monday. Diurnal cu has dissipated leaving mostly clear skies for the overnight hours. Dry airmass with sfc dewpoints dropping into the middle 50s. Have tweaked down sky and temperatures slightly overnight. Expect lows to range from the mid 50s nw to the upper 50s se. Previous Discussion... A drier airmass is settling in across the region this afternoon with dewpoints down into the 50s across much of the area. Some sct-bkn diurnal cu developed through late morning and expect these to dissipate as we lose the daytime heating and head into early evening. High pressure will continue to build eastward into the Ohio Valley Region overnight. With mainly clear skies and light winds, we should have decent radiational cooling overnight with lows dropping down into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will shift slowly east across the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This will keep a dry airmass in place over our area through the short term period with mainly clear/mostly sunny conditions expected Monday into Tuesday night. Weak low level CAA will persist into Monday morning before becoming more neutral through the afternoon. This should keep highs a few degrees below normal on Monday, generally in the upper 70s. As the high starts to shift off to the east, we will get into some return flow through the day on Tuesday, with highs rebounding up into the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mid and upper level ridge will build over the Gulf Coast States through the long term period. As it does, the mid level flow over the Ohio Valley will transition from southwesterly to more of a Zonal pattern through the weekend. Initially, some weak short wave energy will lift northeastward across our region Wednesday into Thursday. It looks like a weak warm front will lift north across the area through the day on wednesday, but the airmass remains fairly dry so will maintain a dry forecast at this point. We will begin to moisten up Wednesday night into Thursday as a weakening cold front drops down into our area. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday night into Thursday. Pcpn should then taper off Thursday night into Friday as the front washes out across our area. Dry weather is then expected for the weekend as the ridge builds northward into the Ohio Valley. Highs through the period will generally be in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure over the mid MS Vly to build east into the Ohio Valley Monday. Expect VFR to persist through the forecast period, with exception of KLUK where BR may reduce visibility early Monday. Fog is expected to brief and limited to MVFR in dry airmass. Scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening with only some scattered high level clouds overnight. Scattered cumulus clouds expected Monday. Northwest winds around 10 kts will become light overnight and then northwest winds at less than 10 knots on Monday. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL/AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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