Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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213 FXUS61 KILN 151538 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1038 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly wind will increase over the Ohio Valley as high pressure moves east and away from the region. An area of rain will spread into the region from the west this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will cross this evening. An axis of high pressure behind this front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night. The next front will cross Saturday, along with a good shot of rain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain showers are beginning to move into eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Rain showers will continue to overspread the area through the afternoon hours before beginning to taper off later this evening. Cloud cover and rain showers will keep temperatures from rising too much today and went on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures. Winds will pick up today and gust around 20 to 25 mph at times. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Southwest winds this evening will become westerly and then the cold air will enter late tonight as a strong shortwave rotates around the upper low to the north and winds become west and then northwest by daybreak Thursday. High pressure then makes a solid progression from the Midwest on Thursday to Indiana by Thursday evening, reaching eastern Ohio Friday morning. The coldest air of this period will be found Thursday night as skies are generally clear and temperatures drop with calm winds into the upper 20s. Thursdays highs in the cold pool behind the front will be in the low to mid 40s, slightly warmer on Friday as return southerly flow sets up and permits Kentucky counties to reach the upper 50s. Northern CWA will reach the lower 50s on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... South winds will increase overnight and temperatures will have an early low, with a slight rise into the lower 50s by daybreak Saturday. Rain will overspread western CWA Saturday morning, with the bulk of the rain, moderate at times with some thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. This cold frontal passage will have the support of a strong upper level trough fairly close behind it and be progressive in its eastward trek through the Ohio Valley. By Saturday evening, ti will be east of the Appalachians and the upper trough axis will be over the Scioto Valley, marking a rapid end to any lingering showers. Saturdays highs in the mid 50s to around 60 will then drop by about 20 degrees on Sunday, with a few snow showers possible along and north of the I-70 corridor given a favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan during the day. Overnight Sunday will have the coldest temperatures in the middle 20s. Readings into next week will stay in the 40s for highs with overnight lows in the lower 30s with a dry forecast. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... H5 s/w will swing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. Convection will be drawn into the region ahead of the associated cdfnt. Latest radar loop is showing the pcpn on the IL/IN border and moving ewd. Models are still in good agreement in the timing of the pcpn, bringing it into the wrn tafs around 18Z. There is some lightning associated with the convection right now, but looking at the elevated instability, it slowly weakens as it moves ewd, so will not mention TS in the tafs for now. Ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR with the onset of the rain. After a few hours, the cigs will then drop to IFR. Pcpn will be ending in the west by 00Z and a few hours later in the east. Cold frontal passage will follow the end of the rain by a few hours. The NAM is holding onto low clouds all night and into Thursday morning, while the GFS works a dry slot into the sw late tonight. Leaned towards the quicker GFS clearing. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger into Thursday. MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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