Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 951 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE MAINTAINED THEMSELVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE/850 MB LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AS WE BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY WHILE THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE THEREFORE PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW/S POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE ENOUGH AT KCVG/KLUK...THEN CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 2000 FEET. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WILL STICK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE AND THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...HICKMAN

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