Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271756 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 156 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OFFERING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC AND UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE GULF COAST AREA MOISTURE...SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS REACHING UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE UPPER 50S SW. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THICKEN ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL S/W OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING INVERTED SFC TROF IN THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL S/W AND INVERTED SFC TROF TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN BAND MAY BRUSH OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OVER S CNTRL OH AND NE KY TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACRS THE FAR SE MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT ONE CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 80. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AT THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPS AS THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING SOME BETTER CAA ON INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A BLEND WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW. BY THURSDAY... EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. SOME PRETTY BIG DISCREPANCIES ARISE LATE IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN REGARD TO HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS AND WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...THINK IT MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL THEREFORE...SLOW DOWN PCPN SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND TAKE MORE OF A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...ASIDE FROM 06-12Z MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT KLUK...NOTHING BELOW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANGE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND JUST HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT VFR CU TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION ON THE FRINGE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JDR

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