Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 232036 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 436 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into Saturday. The front will lift back north Sunday afternoon and evening. A stronger cold front will move through on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Late this afternoon a surface trough was located across northern Indiana and Ohio with a cold front further north in central Michigan. Both of these features will drop south overnight. Clouds will increase and any cooling will be very late. MOS looked reasonable for lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold front will continue south through the forecast area on Saturday. Forcing looks minimal so front should come through dry. Ridging behind the front will be brief as the front will come back north on Sunday afternoon and evening. Some showers and thunderstorms out ahead of an approaching cold front could move into the northwest counties late Sunday night. Respectable temperature gradient will set up north-south across the forecast area. Went a bit above guidance for highs while remaining close to a MOS blend for lows.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models have come into better agreement in the long term period. Due to this have gone with the superblend for a majority of the forecast. Monday will be the warmest day before a cold front moves through during the day. Winds will pick up with the passage of this front and cooler air will filter into the region. A weak upper level disturbance will move through on Wednesday and therefore have a slight chance of showers in on this day.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Few to Sct cu have developed this afternoon across the region and these will dissipate as we head toward sunset. Otherwise, expect to see some mid and high level clouds continue to work south across the area as we head into tonight. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front will push south across our area tonight and wash out along the Ohio River late tonight into Saturday morning. Behind the front, increasing low level moisture and weak CAA will likely lead to some lower cloud and br development. Some of the guidance is hitting this fairly hard, bringing some ifr cigs and vsbys down as far south as the Ohio River. For now will hedge a little and just bring some MVFR cigs/vsbys down across the northern TAF sites late tonight into Saturday morning. These lower clouds will lift into VFR toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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