Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 100903 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 403 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Multiple weather disturbances will work through the region through the week allowing for off and on snow showers across the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Lower clouds will continue to decrease in coverage this morning, however mid clouds are already beginning to work into Indiana and will continue to work into the forecast area today as a weak upper level disturbance approaches. Expect mainly dry conditions with this feature as moisture is limited, however cannot rule out an isolated snow shower across northeastern portions of the forecast area this evening. Went on the cool side of guidance close to the superblend for temperatures today with cloud cover. Winds will increase during the day with wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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The weak upper level disturbance will pull out of the area tonight. High pressure will briefly build in to begin the day on Monday. Another disturbance will approach the region by the end of the short term on Monday allowing for a chance of precipitation across primarily northwestern portions of the forecast area. With WAA in advance of this feature temperatures will rise into the middle 30s to low 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Next in the series of short waves moving through the mean trough will pass across the region early in the period. Associated surface low will track across the Great Lakes with the trailing cold front swinging across the area Monday night. There will be a chance of snow showers with the front with a better chance in the cold air advection behind the front, especially in a band down wind of Lake Michigan. The band will pivot and eventually weaken as winds back on Tuesday. There will be little recovery to temperatures on Tuesday from Monday night lows. And readings will remain 10 degrees or more below normal through Wednesday. A short wave originating in Alberta will decrease in amplitude as it drops into the area Wednesday night with another stronger system coming out of Manitoba Thursday into Thursday night. There remains model spread on how quickly the lead system will diminish. But there is enough potential for light precipitation with this to include low chance PoPs late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Somewhat better chance of snow showers is expected with the second system which will bring a reenforcement of cold air. However, the flow will start to deamplify at the end of the week. This will allow temperatures to rebound back to or a bit above normal by Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Snow showers will taper off overnight. MVFR cigs will be present across a large portion of the area through much of the overnight hours, however the back edge of the MVFR clouds will work into KCVG and KLUK earlier than the other TAF sites. VFR conditions will return for the day on Sunday. Expect winds to stay up some through the overnight hours. Cannot rule out an isolated wind gust, however most of the wind gusts have subsided. Additional wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots will be present during the day on Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday night into Tuesday and then again on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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