Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171948 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 348 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OBSERVED BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO SHARPEN UP WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN CANADA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NW AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES TO START OUT MAINLY CLEAR AND THEN WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ILN/S FA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES IS WEAK TO START OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE FRONT PASSES THRU AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE POP NORTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF WEAK FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE. THIS SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN. SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S SOUTHWEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND THEN CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND MORE INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS WHILE ADDING A CHANCE OF THUNDER. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT POPS ARE BELOW THRESHOLD TO APPEAR IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY IN RELATION TO THE COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE INITIAL HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SOLAR RADIATION TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL SLIDE MAINLY INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE THEIR EFFECT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS IT DOES...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AS IT CROSSES THE TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR 5000 FOOT CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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