Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180217 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE A LITTLE AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FURTHER WHILE MOVING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY STAY FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND MONDAY NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA AS WELL IN THE VERY HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A BRIEF PERIOD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND STALL OVER THE AREA...WITH A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS TAKING HOLD FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND MILD NIGHTS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST THRU EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE CONTINUE TO SHOW A A DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH BEST BEST STORMS OVER THE SRN PORTION OF LOW WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CO-EXISTS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST...EXPECT NRN KY COUNTIES TO BE AFFECTED BY PCPN SHIELD. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE TO LKLY ACRS THE FAR SOUTH BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS ACRS THE REMAINDER OF ILN/S FA BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND RADAR/SATL TRENDS. IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REALLY OPENS UP/SHEARS OUT/WEAKENS AS DEEPER LAYER NWLY FLOW DRIVING THE KICKER ENERGY TO OUR NW SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH/INVERTED TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW...AS DOES THE WEAK/WASHING OUT STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO. A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH WIDESPREAD CUMULUS EVENTUALLY CONVECTING DURING DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE SUBTLE SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS...AND MLCAPE PER 17.12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FLOW IS WEAK SO JUST SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE...AND NOTING THIS REGION WEST OF THE UPPER LOW FAILED TO WARM MUCH TODAY...AM KEEPING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON MONDAY...ON THE COOLER SIDE OF 17.12Z MOS. ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER SASK WILL BE ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT AT PEAK HEATING WILL ACTUALLY ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD A MODEST HEIGHT GRADIENT TO OUR WEST/SOUTH. 17.12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR ILN/CVG/DAY/CMH ALL EXHIBIT MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH A STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS STILL IN THE 60S. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35KTS COULD PROMOTE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO MONDAY. UPCOMING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MOVE TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IF CURRENT SIGNALS PERSIST..ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY TUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA IN THIS PATTERN. WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT THOUGH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTHWEST/COOLER TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS TRYING TO BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SLOW WARMUP IN TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME WESTERN KY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THRU KY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW BUT SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS AROUND THIS FEATURE MAY AFFECT KCVG AND KLUK MAINLY THRU THE LATE EVENING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AT ALL SITES LKLY OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMP IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM SE TO NE OVERNIGHT AND THEN NW MONDAY AFTN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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