Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221012 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 512 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BEFORE AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING A WINTRY MIX TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH AREA TODAY...THEN DESPITE AREA TO EVENTUALLY BE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE AND OVERALL CONFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN FAVORABLE SET UP FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED IN FORECAST ACCORDINGLY IN ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND AND RIDGING BUILDS IN...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN WITH COOLING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A CHANGE AGAIN IN JUST HOW FAST AND FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL...WITH NOW THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WITH THIS CHANGE COMES A DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVRALL HAVE GONE WITH MORE RAIN MIXING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT HAVE A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NOW...DOWN TO AN INCH OR LESS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. WITH THESE SHOWERS DEPARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...THIS TIME A CLIPPER PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE AGAIN IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...HAVE CONTINUED WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND SLIGHTLY LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ONCE RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30...BEFORE A SLIGHT REBOUND TO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE...EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUED LOWERING OF TE CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A PREVAILING IFR DECK ALONG WITH SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BR. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE MORNING...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK INTO MORE OF AN MVFR DECK. HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...JGL

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