Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191753 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 153 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather across the region today. Low pressure traveling through Kentucky will bring showers Friday and Saturday. High pressure and dry conditions are forecast to return on Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Fog that had worked into ne KY is now beginning to dissipate with the daytime heating. Expect a few cu to develop across the south in the vicinity of the dissipating fog. Temperatures are jumping this morning, already into the mid to upper 50s for the majority of the locations. Bumped highs up a degree or so, so most locations are a degree or two around 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue tonight through Friday morning as high pressure moves off to the east. For Friday afternoon, low pressure developing ahead of a digging upper trough will move to Kentucky. Moisture advection on a southwest flow aloft will be lifted ahead of the low, producing showers by Friday evening, mainly in southern counties. As the low travels to eastern Kentucky by Saturday morning, the main focus for showers will continue to be in southern locations where precip amounts may exceed a half an inch. The low is forecast to reach the Atlantic coast late Saturday, by which time showers will be diminishing, though a modest increase in instability may trigger a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Warm advection in advance of the low will be offset by clouds and precip. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal, with highs expected to be close to 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sharp ridging over the Mississippi Valley region on Sunday will move east and envelop the Ohio Valley by Monday morning, providing a period of dry weather and warming temperatures. Going into the new week, the pattern appears more typical of late spring -- with warmer southerly flow at the surface, and occasional chances for precipitation as occasional waves move along the generally- westerly mid-level flow. 00Z and 12Z model runs have remained fairly consistent on precipitation chances beginning on Tuesday night, and becoming more likely (with building instability) on Wednesday. As mentioned, warming temperatures are expected through the long term forecast period, with the more significant rise coming once the near-surface flow turns to the south on Monday and Tuesday. Highs are likely to get into the 80s by the Tuesday, reaching values above normal for the first time in what will by then have been about a week and a half. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Area of MVFR cu has developed over srn OH and nrn KY. This cu will affect CVG/LUK for the first several hours of the TAF period before it should dissipate. H5 S/W ridge builds over the tafs this evening and should combine with sfc ridging to provide VFR conditions. After the ridge slips to the east, ci should be on the increase with a ceiling working into the srn TAFS. Dewpoints remain high in the south overnight, concerning me about the chance of fog at LUK, especially with an ely wind. Added tempo MVFR fog from 09Z-11Z, but it might go lower. Clouds will increase and begin to lower as the day progresses on Friday, but only at CVG and LUK was a 5kft cig brought in aft 12Z. Models have become aggressive in bringing in pcpn between 18Z-00Z tomorrow. Models are showing some instability tomorrow afternoon and toyed with the idea of adding a VCTS to the 30hrs CVG TAF, but instead decided on VCSH aft 21Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night and Saturday. Thunderstorms possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Sites

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