Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200553 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 153 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOSING UP INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT HAVE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS STILL DO NOT LOOK GREAT FOR THUNDER HOWEVER A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK DRUGGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK TROUGH AND LINGERING MOISTURE. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHALLOW LIFT GENERATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. BR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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