Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 191753
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016
High pressure will keep dry weather across the region today. Low
pressure traveling through Kentucky will bring showers Friday and
Saturday. High pressure and dry conditions are forecast to return
on Sunday and Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog that had worked into ne KY is now beginning to dissipate with
the daytime heating. Expect a few cu to develop across the south
in the vicinity of the dissipating fog.
Temperatures are jumping this morning, already into the mid to
upper 50s for the majority of the locations. Bumped highs up a
degree or so, so most locations are a degree or two around 70.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue tonight through Friday morning as high
pressure moves off to the east. For Friday afternoon, low pressure
developing ahead of a digging upper trough will move to Kentucky.
Moisture advection on a southwest flow aloft will be lifted ahead
of the low, producing showers by Friday evening, mainly in
southern counties. As the low travels to eastern Kentucky by
Saturday morning, the main focus for showers will continue to be
in southern locations where precip amounts may exceed a half an
inch. The low is forecast to reach the Atlantic coast late
Saturday, by which time showers will be diminishing, though a
modest increase in instability may trigger a few thunderstorms
Warm advection in advance of the low will be offset by clouds and
precip. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal, with
highs expected to be close to 70.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sharp ridging over the Mississippi Valley region on Sunday will
move east and envelop the Ohio Valley by Monday morning, providing
a period of dry weather and warming temperatures. Going into the
new week, the pattern appears more typical of late spring -- with
warmer southerly flow at the surface, and occasional chances for
precipitation as occasional waves move along the generally-
westerly mid-level flow. 00Z and 12Z model runs have remained
fairly consistent on precipitation chances beginning on Tuesday
night, and becoming more likely (with building instability) on
As mentioned, warming temperatures are expected through the long
term forecast period, with the more significant rise coming once the
near-surface flow turns to the south on Monday and Tuesday. Highs
are likely to get into the 80s by the Tuesday, reaching values above
normal for the first time in what will by then have been about a
week and a half.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Area of MVFR cu has developed over srn OH and nrn KY. This cu
will affect CVG/LUK for the first several hours of the TAF period
before it should dissipate.
H5 S/W ridge builds over the tafs this evening and should combine
with sfc ridging to provide VFR conditions. After the ridge slips
to the east, ci should be on the increase with a ceiling working
into the srn TAFS. Dewpoints remain high in the south overnight,
concerning me about the chance of fog at LUK, especially with an
ely wind. Added tempo MVFR fog from 09Z-11Z, but it might go
Clouds will increase and begin to lower as the day progresses on
Friday, but only at CVG and LUK was a 5kft cig brought in aft
12Z. Models have become aggressive in bringing in pcpn between
18Z-00Z tomorrow. Models are showing some instability tomorrow
afternoon and toyed with the idea of adding a VCTS to the 30hrs
CVG TAF, but instead decided on VCSH aft 21Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night and
Saturday. Thunderstorms possible Saturday.
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