Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270000 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP A MOISTURE FEED AND HELP THE STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN CWA ARE BEING FOCUSED ALONG AN INCREASING RIDGE OF HIGH CAPE VALUES THAT INTERSECT WITH DECENT THETA-E VALUES IN NORTHERN OHIO. THIS SOURCE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND AWAY FROM ILN CWA...AND THE SOUTHEAST MOVING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WILL SKIRT NORTHERN CWA AND METRO COLUMBUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS COVERED WELL BY THE CONVECTIVE WATCH THAT IS OUT UNTIL 9 PM. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO PERSIST AND WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH THE SETTING SUN. OVERNIGHT ANOTHER CONVERGENT AREA IS BEING PROGGED TO SET UP BETWEEN CINCY AND INDY WITH A SIMILAR STORM MOTION. THIS SETUP WILL BE FURTHER BUOYED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE FEED OVERNIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA IS INCREASED AND SO THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA. WOULD HAVE LIKED TO NOT INCLUDE SOME COUNTIES HERE OR THERE WITH THIS FLOOD WATCH BUT THE MODELS ARE SUPPORTING TWO SOLUTIONS WITH NORTHERN ENERGY AND A SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND EITHER REMAINS A VIABLE SOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ONGOING STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN GET AN ADDED KICK OF ENERGY AND UPWARD MOTION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA. TRIED TO SHOW AN EASTWARD MOVE TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE STORMS WITH THE FLOOD WATCH...CANCELLING SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK AND STRIPPING A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES LATER IN THE MORNING. IN THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF CWA...STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING WILL BECOME MORE DISCRETE AND HAVE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ROTATION WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THEIR CORES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOS DUE TO THE WIND PROFILES. THE STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER IN TIME FOR THIS AREA. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THE WINDS TURN WEST...MARKING A SHUTOFF TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST. THE ACTUAL AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT CROSS UNTIL OVERNIGHT AND THE COLD AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE NORTH UNDER A PRETTY SOLID OVERCAST DECK. TRANSITIONED THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT IS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE AN ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET MONDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NW FLOW AT H5 WILL KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF TSTM COMPLEX OVER IL/IN EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS BY 03-06Z. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EVEN IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR OVER KLUK/KCVG/KLUK. ONCE THE MCS PUSHES THROUGH...JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE 15-20Z TIMEFRAME WITH AGAIN POSSIBLE MVFR IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GENERALLY VCSH VFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 20Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ034-042-051-060-061-070-071-077-078. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-035-043>046-052>056-062>065-072>074- 079>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>096. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ097-098. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ099-100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ058-066-073>075-080. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JDR

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