Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180231 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1031 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A shower or thunderstorm will be possible early this evening as a decaying front remains in region. High pressure will begin to take control bringing a gradual warm up through the week. A chance of thunderstorms returns toward the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Although there has been a marked decrease in the diurnally- driven convection from earlier, a few showers continue to linger across parts of the area. Added slight chance PoPs for several hours across the center part of the FA to account for the lingering activity. This being said, still do expect activity to diminish completely after midnight through the remainder of the near term period. Did not make any substantial changes to the fog fcst for the near term period. With ample boundary layer moisture, clearing skies, and light to calm winds, patchy fog will once again be possible for much of the area by sunrise Tuesday. Although some patchy dense fog will be possible, do think the densest will be in area river valleys. Fcst lows are still on track, with lower 60s in the northeast to upper 60s in the southwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridge begins to build in on Tuesday. However there appears to be enough convergence on Tuesday that an isolate shower might pop up in the afternoon. Added a low slight chance PoP to cover the showers. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s. Any cloud cover, should dissipate Tuesday night leaving mostly clear skies. Lows will be slightly warmer only falling back into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Most of the long term is expected to be hot and humid with high temperatures ranging from the middle 80s to low 90s Wednesday through Sunday. Low temperatures will still be warm with lows generally in the 70s. There have been some model fluctuations on the strength of the ridge and subsequently whether disturbances will work down into the region with northwest flow aloft. Better precipitation chances will be in place for this to happen later in the week into the weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday with the passage of the cold front. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The isolated and disorganized convection that had developed during peak diurnal heating is already on a downward trend both in intensity and coverage. With this, decided to keep VC out of the fcst this evening for all the terminals as activity should continue to dissipate within the first hour or two of the TAF period. Main item of interest for the overnight period will be the potential for patchy fog /potentially dense in area river valleys/ from 06-12z. With ample boundary layer moisture in place, mainly clear skies, and light/calm winds, the setup for fog appears to still be on track. MVFR VSBYs are possible at every terminal, with potential for LIFR or lower at KLUK. The dense fog may lead to LIFR CIGs towards 12z for KLUK as well. Do think there is the potential that KCVG VSBYs could briefly go IFR, but did not have confidence to include in the TAF at this time. After the BR/FG lifts/dissipates after 12z, conditions will be VFR for the remainder of the period. Some diurnally-driven SCT Cu will develop towards the afternoon. A few hi-res models continue to show isolated -SHRA developing in the afternoon, but think that the coverage (if any) will be isolated at best and too low to include in the fcst at this time. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC

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