Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170547 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1247 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight along with the possibility of a few flurries. High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Thursday, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Main concern overnight remains the fate of the low clouds across the region. The RAP 925 mb RH field seems to have a reasonable handle on the cloud deck to start. So have followed its solution in pushing the low level moisture south through the night. But confidence is not too high. Temperatures will drop little as long as clouds remain. But any clearing should allow for a quick fall even with some wind persisting. Where there is clearing, wind chill values may approach advisory criteria for a brief period. Obviously plenty of uncertainty. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for the low level flow across our area to slowly back to the northwest and then the west. This will allow for some lingering low level clouds across the area Wednesday morning to gradually scatter out from the west later Wednesday afternoon with mainly clear skies then expected for Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Despite the clear skies Wednesday night, a tightening pressure gradient should help keep the winds up somewhat. This should again keep temperatures from dropping way off and will go with lows down around 10 degrees or so. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Large area of surface high pressure to slide east across the region through the end of the week. This feature will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures. Temperatures by the end of the week will warm up closer to normal. Expect highs on Friday to range from the lower/middle 30s north to near 40 south. A southerly low level flow will develop Saturday on the backside of retreating surface high pressure. In WAA pattern a chance of a few showers will exist Saturday. Temperatures expected to warm around 10 degrees above normal with highs Saturday from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. Mid/upper level flow to back with s/w and deepening surface wave ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of rain shifts north of ILN/s FA. Therefore, will limit pops to very low chance category. Expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday generally between 50 and 55 degrees. As surface wave tracks through the Great Lakes associated surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Monday. Therefore, will continue high pops for rain. Above normal temperatures to continue with highs of 45-50 Monday. In the wake of this front surface high pressure to build in providing dry weather Tuesday. Temperatures will continue a little above normal with highs from near 40 north to the upper 40s south. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR deck across the region is forecast to clear from the north during the first half of the TAF period. However, there is considerable uncertainty with how quickly this will occur. Initial forecast uses RAP 925 mb RH to time clearing. Once lower clouds clear, it appears that conditions will remain VFR through the rest of the TAF period, but again there is uncertainty whether lower stratocumulus could try to redevelop during the day. It seems a bit more likely that clouds with bases above 3000 ft will translate across the area in the afternoon. There will be mid and high clouds spreading across the region as well. West winds will increase up to 10 kt during the day and then back to southwest after 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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