Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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993 FXUS61 KILN 170611 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 211 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 17.00Z KILN SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOUT 1.57" - WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST FOR MID-MAY...ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER SOUNDING CLIMO. DEEP BUT WEAK SWLY FLOW EXISTED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE SOUNDING...WITH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION OR STORM ORGANIZATION. SBCAPE WAS AROUND 600 J/KG BUT THIS WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT WITH THE ONSET OF /SUBTLE/ NOCTURNAL COOLING. GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. CLEARLY A WEAK VORT MAX RIDING UP THE WRN SIDE OF SERN CONUS RIDGING...AND THIS WAVE WAS IN CNTL KY MOVING NORTHEAST AND DRIVING NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS WRN OH/SERN IND/CNTL KY. HAVE TRACKED THIS FEATURE WITH 55-70% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING MOST AREAS ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF RAIN...MAYBE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETTER FOCUS FOR WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IS ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF I-71. BUMPED UP LOWS JUST A BIT GIVEN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND WEAK SWLY FLOW. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE WAVE AND THINK SKIES COULD VERY WELL GO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER FROM LATE EVENING ON IN A SW TO NE FASHION. THAT SHOULD SPELL THE FORMATION OF SOME LIGHT FOG. ALSO HINTS THAT THE TAIL OF THIS INCOMING WAVE MAY DEVELOP A FEW STORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JET COMES UP. SO KEPT ISOLD THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MAY BE YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID-SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE SCT SHRA/FEW STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION DUE TO LACK OF WELL DEFINED FORCING. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWAT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND 850 MB WIND FLOW INDICATE DECREASED COVERAGE COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DUE TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING. STAYED A SHADE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS AND WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS THE UPR MS VLY. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A MOIST SWRLY FLOW WITH PW/S PWATS 1.70 INCHES. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODERATE INSTBY EXPECTED DURG THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. SHORTWAVE TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES FLATTENING OUT NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. SFC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THRU ILN/S FA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR A LTL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SE. EMBEDDED S/W LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND PERMIT THE MOIST AIRMASS TO STRATIFY AND SEE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER MVFR CIGS AT KCMH/KLCK WILL OCCUR IN THE RAIN UNTIL THAT PASSES AND THE SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND AGAIN WITH BR WHEN AND IF CLOUDS MATERIALIZE BELOW 1KFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY AND ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS AND/OR MVFR VSBYS WILL MIX OUT AND LIFT TO A MORE TYPICAL SC BASE AROUND 3-4KFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18-19Z SO I LEFT MENTION OF VCSH OUT UNTIL THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL BE OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT REMAIN IN HIGH QUESTION AS TO PLACEMENT AND/OR TIMING. A WAVE OF ENERGY WILL BE CROSSING SUNDAY EVENING AND THE VCSH HAVE BEEN CONTINUED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF MODELS COME IN LINE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING LATER ON...FCST MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS DOWN SOME BUT THAT IS NOT THE CURRENT CASE. OUTLOOK...ISOL/SCT TSTORMS POSSIBLE THRU MON NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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