Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211147 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will be possible today into tonight along a weak cold front. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather on Wednesday. A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the weather picture Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front is located near the Mississippi River early this morning. The front is weakening as it moves into less favorable moisture and forcing that are in place over the Ohio Valley. Though moisture and lift will increase somewhat today as the front moves in, have reduced PoPs and delayed onset of shower chances based on latest models that have trended drier over the last several runs. Current radar echos that are scant along the front support the drier solution. Much above normal temperatures will persist. Highs in the mid and upper 60s will be within a few degrees of record highs. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As the front weakens tonight while entering the area, most locations should be free from measurable precip. However, a shot of short wave energy and moisture developing around an upper low to the south may bring showers mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Kept PoPs below likely due to model inconsistencies. Following the dying cold front, weak surface high pressure and a broad ridge aloft are expected to prevent measurable precip from developing on Wednesday. Decreasing cloud cover should result in sunshine by Wednesday afternoon. Minimal temperature advection associated with the front will allow highs to stay well above normal Wednesday, in the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Westerly mid level flow with shortwave passing through the Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday. This will allow a surface front to drop down into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Meanwhile vigorous jet energy will carve out a trough over the western US. Shortwave pivoting northeast will induce a deepening surface low that ejects from the central plains on Thursday into the Great Lakes Friday. Aforementioned surface front lifts north as a warm front with a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly the northern counties Thursday night. Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Friday evening. MUCAPES values of 500 to 750 j/kg are fcst Friday afternoon into Friday evening ahead of this surface front. Numerical models have been showing good continuity from run to run. Sherbs3 shows a a good signal for high shear low cape strong squall line potential with the possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO product. In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers will be possible Saturday due to the passage of the mid level trof. These showers may transition or mix with a few snow showers prior to ending Saturday night. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures. In the quick zonal flow a front to drop south through the area providing a slight chance of a rain or snow shower Sunday night into early Monday. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface wave of low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Split flow with weak northern shortwave passing through the Great Lakes today. This will allow a weakening front to push into the region from the west and wash out. Expect VFR conditions with mainly mid and high level CIGS through most of the day. A shower or two this afternoon is not out of the question but coverage and probability are too low to mention more than VCSH in the TAF forecast. Meanwhile, numerical model solns are coming more in line with an axis of 850 MB convergence developing over southern Ohio this evening. This will likely lead to a band of rain showers over KCVG and KLUK. Have MVFR CIGS and VSBYs developing at these southern TAF sites with MVFR CIGS at the others. With weak low level flow and a moist boundary layer clouds will lower overnight. Some of the solns take CIGS below 1000 feet. At this time have kept CIGS above 1000 feet with MVFR VSBYS developing in fog. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR CLIMATE...

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