Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131408 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1008 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures along with dry conditions will be present today. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Friday along with the potential for severe weather on Thursday. Slightly cooler conditions will be in place for the weekend along with spotty precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast largely on track. Plenty of sunshine out there per GOES imagery with one batch of cirrus exiting into eastern Ohio and another more spotty batch across southern Indiana dropping toward northern Kentucky. Already this morning, most models are again grossly overdoing boundary layer moisture so once again expect dewpoints to hang pretty much where they are at if not mix out a little bit under full sunshine. South winds are light right now, and will come up a little and turn southwesterly as the boundary layer deepens, but not to the degree we saw yesterday. Gusts should be much lower, and more sporadic even during peak heating. That being said, RH values dropping toward 30% (even lower in the Scioto Valley) combined with warm temperatures in the lower 70s and on top of yesterday`s good drying/curing of fine fuels does keep fire weather concerns in play. Given wind forecasts, will hold on the issuance of any Special Weather Statements for now and monitor.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region primarily after midnight and with the greatest coverage across northern portions of the region. Cannot rule out some isolated small hail with these storms. This initial round will push to the east northeast during the morning hours of Thursday. There will be a brief lull in the precipitation and this will allow for temperatures to climb into the 60s and 70s across the region. The warmest temperatures will be across southeastern portions of the region where it will take longer for the storms to move into the area. Some of the latest higher res model solutions are showing the second round of thunderstorms diving further south on Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Due to this have increased precipitation chances and values during this time. Given the orientation of the storms and severe weather parameters, there will be at least some potential for damaging wind and large hail. In addition cannot rule out an isolated tornado. SPC has a portion of the region in a marginal risk and highlighted a similar area in the HWO. Outside of thunderstorm activity winds will pick up during the day and some wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph will be possible. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key messages: One or more rounds of storms will be possible Thursday night into early Friday before drier conditions return to the region late Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend. A mix of rain and snow showers will be possible Sunday night through Monday as much cooler air returns to the region. Below normal temperatures are expected through the first part of next workweek. The main story for the first part of the long term period will be the unsettled weather Thursday night into Friday. Broad midlevel SW flow will become established from the lower MS Rvr Vly into the OH Vly, with several disturbances rippling through this flow from the south-central plains into the mid MS Rvr Vly. While most of the widespread shower/storm activity may stay across the N (closer to the warm front) and to the W (closer to the sfc low) during the daytime Thursday, the approach of the front by Thursday night into Friday should allow for better pcpn chances to overspread a greater portion of the ILN FA. The data seems to be honing in on two somewhat distinct features that are fcst to move through the region. The initial S/W will likely translate just N of the immediate ILN FA closer to the E-W frontal boundary draped across far nrn IL/IN/OH into srn MI during the day Thursday. This initial impulse should provide enough forcing and ascent to promote one or more clusters of showers/storms Thursday afternoon/evening near/N of I-70, with /some/ instby arcing from the mid MS Rvr Vly NE into the nrn OH Vly. And given the warm, moisture-rich air in place (especially pooling near the E-W boundary), instby should develop in the open warm sector, with several convective clusters likely moving from the nrn half of IN through the nrn half of OH as early as Thursday afternoon/evening. It is with this daytime activity focused closer to the warm front, that the greatest strong to severe storm potential may evolve in the region. By Thursday night, behind the initial S/W impulse, however, there are questions regarding just how much lift will be maintained except immediately along the SE-sagging frontal boundary itself. It stands to reason that there may be several clusters of storms moving near/N of I-70 Thursday evening followed by somewhat of a lull, or at the very least a decrease in convective coverage, locally before the front (with SCT convection focused along it), moves in late in the night/early Friday morning. This setup remains somewhat tricky as the main S/W will be transitioning to a much flatter open wave, with the attendant sfc low likely weakening somewhat by Thursday night as it moves from MO to MI. In fact, an elongation of the sfc pressure pattern appears likely at this juncture as the main sfc low will be filling in a bit with eastward extent (and pulling away from the area), with very little evidence of a well-defined low center back to the SW across MO/IL/IN Thursday night. Even in the absence of better forcing, LL convergence along the front itself should promote the development of some SCT convection as the boundary sags to the SE. The LL environment may be conditionally-supportive for a strong to severe storm or two, but confidence is lacking in just how far E the better instby will be maintained into the nighttime. As of right now, for Thursday night/Friday morning, the most notable severe potential is likely to evolve to the W of the immediate area (where the better pooling of LL instby will be) before the most widespread coverage of storms moves through the ILN FA (albeit with a less favorable LL thermodynamic environment) Thursday night into Friday morning. The LL/deep-layer shear profiles suggest at least some storm organization potential, but fcst soundings continue to hint at the maintenance of an elevated warm layer late Thursday night. So while the prospect of having storms is somewhat high, the prospect of a more widespread severe threat is a bit more questionable, especially SE of I-71. This being said, if convection is able to become more surface-based with eastward extent Thursday night, amidst a relatively favorable shear profile, a few strong to severe storms may be possible, with gusty/damaging winds and some hail being the primary threats. The evolution of all of these moving parts will continue to be watched in the coming days, with the best coverage of pcpn locally likely evolving between midnight and noon Friday. Rain/storm chances will linger about the OH Vly until the remnant S/W is able to move through midday Friday, with the front draped almost directly back to the W of the sfc low. Slightly cooler/drier air filters in late Friday into Saturday before the next chance for pcpn arrives Sunday into Monday as a digging reinforcing S/W moves from the Upper Midwest into the OH Vly/Great Lakes region. This should support the development of ISO/SCT rain/snow showers at times Sunday night through Monday as much colder air aloft settles into the region. Ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement showing a return to a chillier pattern by early next week, with a few days with below normal temps likely. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the first part of the overnight tonight. A few cu will be possible during the day today along with some high clouds. Winds will pick up some for the daytime hours, however wind gusts should be isolated and therefore left out of the TAFs. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will start to move across portions of the region late in the TAF period. There will be greater coverage at the northern TAF sites KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK and have some MVFR vsbys in at KDAY with the precipitation. Winds will pick up with wind gusts over 20 knots expected at the end of the longer KCVG TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday night into Friday night with IFR possible. Thunderstorms also possible Thursday into Friday. Gusty winds on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...

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