Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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824 FXUS61 KILN 170119 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 919 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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17.00Z KILN SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOUT 1.57" - WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST FOR MID-MAY...ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER SOUNDING CLIMO. DEEP BUT WEAK SWLY FLOW EXISTED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE SOUNDING...WITH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION OR STORM ORGANIZATION. SBCAPE WAS AROUND 600 J/KG BUT THIS WILL TAPER SOMEWHAT WITH THE ONSET OF /SUBTLE/ NOCTURNAL COOLING. GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. CLEARLY A WEAK VORT MAX RIDING UP THE WRN SIDE OF SERN CONUS RIDGING...AND THIS WAVE WAS IN CNTL KY MOVING NORTHEAST AND DRIVING NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS WRN OH/SERN IND/CNTL KY. HAVE TRACKED THIS FEATURE WITH 55-70% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING MOST AREAS ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF RAIN...MAYBE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETTER FOCUS FOR WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IS ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF I-71. BUMPED UP LOWS JUST A BIT GIVEN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND WEAK SWLY FLOW. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE WAVE AND THINK SKIES COULD VERY WELL GO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER FROM LATE EVENING ON IN A SW TO NE FASHION. THAT SHOULD SPELL THE FORMATION OF SOME LIGHT FOG. ALSO HINTS THAT THE TAIL OF THIS INCOMING WAVE MAY DEVELOP A FEW STORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JET COMES UP. SO KEPT ISOLD THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MAY BE YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID-SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE SCT SHRA/FEW STORMS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION DUE TO LACK OF WELL DEFINED FORCING. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWAT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND 850 MB WIND FLOW INDICATE DECREASED COVERAGE COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DUE TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING. STAYED A SHADE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS AND WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS THE UPR MS VLY. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A MOIST SWRLY FLOW WITH PW/S PWATS 1.70 INCHES. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODERATE INSTBY EXPECTED DURG THE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. SHORTWAVE TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES FLATTENING OUT NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. SFC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THRU ILN/S FA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR A LTL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SE. EMBEDDED S/W LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AMIDST WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WHILE OVERALL RAIN/SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND A FEW DOWNPOURS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS KY/OH/IN. FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF...HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED VCSH OR -SHRA AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CNTL KY. AFTER LATE EVENING DID TRY TO DIMINISH RAIN MENTION IN TAFS BUT USED THAT OPPORTUNITY TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE BASED ON ANOMALOUS MOISTURE...LIGHT FLOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PATCHES OF CLEARING. KEPT THE CIGS IN UNTIL MID-SUNDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER A BIT TO VFR RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS AND MORE SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH...EXPECT MORE SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. WILL HOLD ON THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN LACK OF STRONG BOUNDARY FOCUS AND VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BINAU

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