Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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000
FXUS61 KILN 131408
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1008 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures along with dry conditions will
be present today. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible tonight through Friday along with the potential
for severe weather on Thursday. Slightly cooler conditions will
be in place for the weekend along with spotty precipitation
chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast largely on track. Plenty of sunshine out there per GOES
imagery with one batch of cirrus exiting into eastern Ohio and
another more spotty batch across southern Indiana dropping
toward northern Kentucky. Already this morning, most models are
again grossly overdoing boundary layer moisture so once again
expect dewpoints to hang pretty much where they are at if not
mix out a little bit under full sunshine. South winds are light
right now, and will come up a little and turn southwesterly as
the boundary layer deepens, but not to the degree we saw
yesterday. Gusts should be much lower, and more sporadic even
during peak heating. That being said, RH values dropping toward
30% (even lower in the Scioto Valley) combined with warm
temperatures in the lower 70s and on top of yesterday`s good
drying/curing of fine fuels does keep fire weather concerns in
play. Given wind forecasts, will hold on the issuance of any
Special Weather Statements for now and monitor.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region primarily
after midnight and with the greatest coverage across northern
portions of the region. Cannot rule out some isolated small hail
with these storms.
This initial round will push to the east northeast during the
morning hours of Thursday. There will be a brief lull in the
precipitation and this will allow for temperatures to climb into
the 60s and 70s across the region. The warmest temperatures
will be across southeastern portions of the region where it will
take longer for the storms to move into the area.
Some of the latest higher res model solutions are showing the
second round of thunderstorms diving further south on Thursday
afternoon and into the evening. Due to this have increased
precipitation chances and values during this time. Given the
orientation of the storms and severe weather parameters, there
will be at least some potential for damaging wind and large
hail. In addition cannot rule out an isolated tornado. SPC has a
portion of the region in a marginal risk and highlighted a
similar area in the HWO. Outside of thunderstorm activity winds
will pick up during the day and some wind gusts around 30 to 35
mph will be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key messages: One or more rounds of storms will be possible Thursday
night into early Friday before drier conditions return to the region
late Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend. A mix of
rain and snow showers will be possible Sunday night through Monday
as much cooler air returns to the region. Below normal temperatures
are expected through the first part of next workweek.
The main story for the first part of the long term period will be
the unsettled weather Thursday night into Friday. Broad midlevel SW
flow will become established from the lower MS Rvr Vly into the OH
Vly, with several disturbances rippling through this flow from the
south-central plains into the mid MS Rvr Vly. While most of the
widespread shower/storm activity may stay across the N (closer to
the warm front) and to the W (closer to the sfc low) during the
daytime Thursday, the approach of the front by Thursday night into
Friday should allow for better pcpn chances to overspread a greater
portion of the ILN FA.
The data seems to be honing in on two somewhat distinct features
that are fcst to move through the region. The initial S/W will
likely translate just N of the immediate ILN FA closer to the E-W
frontal boundary draped across far nrn IL/IN/OH into srn MI during
the day Thursday. This initial impulse should provide enough forcing
and ascent to promote one or more clusters of showers/storms
Thursday afternoon/evening near/N of I-70, with /some/ instby arcing
from the mid MS Rvr Vly NE into the nrn OH Vly. And given the warm,
moisture-rich air in place (especially pooling near the E-W
boundary), instby should develop in the open warm sector, with
several convective clusters likely moving from the nrn half of IN
through the nrn half of OH as early as Thursday afternoon/evening.
It is with this daytime activity focused closer to the warm front,
that the greatest strong to severe storm potential may evolve
in the region. By Thursday night, behind the initial S/W
impulse, however, there are questions regarding just how much
lift will be maintained except immediately along the SE-sagging
frontal boundary itself. It stands to reason that there may be
several clusters of storms moving near/N of I-70 Thursday
evening followed by somewhat of a lull, or at the very least a
decrease in convective coverage, locally before the front (with
SCT convection focused along it), moves in late in the
night/early Friday morning.
This setup remains somewhat tricky as the main S/W will be
transitioning to a much flatter open wave, with the attendant sfc
low likely weakening somewhat by Thursday night as it moves from MO
to MI. In fact, an elongation of the sfc pressure pattern appears
likely at this juncture as the main sfc low will be filling in a bit
with eastward extent (and pulling away from the area), with very
little evidence of a well-defined low center back to the SW across
MO/IL/IN Thursday night.
Even in the absence of better forcing, LL convergence along the
front itself should promote the development of some SCT convection
as the boundary sags to the SE. The LL environment may be
conditionally-supportive for a strong to severe storm or two, but
confidence is lacking in just how far E the better instby will be
maintained into the nighttime. As of right now, for Thursday
night/Friday morning, the most notable severe potential is likely to
evolve to the W of the immediate area (where the better pooling of
LL instby will be) before the most widespread coverage of storms
moves through the ILN FA (albeit with a less favorable LL
thermodynamic environment) Thursday night into Friday morning. The
LL/deep-layer shear profiles suggest at least some storm
organization potential, but fcst soundings continue to hint at the
maintenance of an elevated warm layer late Thursday night. So while
the prospect of having storms is somewhat high, the prospect of a
more widespread severe threat is a bit more questionable, especially
SE of I-71. This being said, if convection is able to become more
surface-based with eastward extent Thursday night, amidst a
relatively favorable shear profile, a few strong to severe storms
may be possible, with gusty/damaging winds and some hail being the
primary threats. The evolution of all of these moving parts will
continue to be watched in the coming days, with the best coverage of
pcpn locally likely evolving between midnight and noon Friday.
Rain/storm chances will linger about the OH Vly until the remnant
S/W is able to move through midday Friday, with the front draped
almost directly back to the W of the sfc low. Slightly cooler/drier
air filters in late Friday into Saturday before the next chance for
pcpn arrives Sunday into Monday as a digging reinforcing S/W moves
from the Upper Midwest into the OH Vly/Great Lakes region. This
should support the development of ISO/SCT rain/snow showers at times
Sunday night through Monday as much colder air aloft settles into
the region. Ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement showing
a return to a chillier pattern by early next week, with a few days
with below normal temps likely.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the first part of the
overnight tonight. A few cu will be possible during the day
today along with some high clouds. Winds will pick up some for
the daytime hours, however wind gusts should be isolated and
therefore left out of the TAFs. Showers and some embedded
thunderstorms will start to move across portions of the region
late in the TAF period. There will be greater coverage at the
northern TAF sites KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK and have some MVFR vsbys
in at KDAY with the precipitation. Winds will pick up with wind
gusts over 20 knots expected at the end of the longer KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday night
into Friday night with IFR possible. Thunderstorms also possible
Thursday into Friday. Gusty winds on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...