Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241058 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 658 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry and mild weather today in a breezy southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered to the west. The low will track east to the Great Lakes by Sunday, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Weak high pressure and drier air will build in briefly early Monday, before another area of low pressure arrives for Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upper air pattern features a ridge across the Eastern CONUS, with a closed low moving to the central plains. A surface low is located just ahead of the upper low in this slow moving, vertically stacked system. A warm front that has developed ahead of the low is positioned across the Great Lakes. Bulk of showers that formed earlier on the nose of a low level jet have moved east. A few light showers are developing in northern counties, so extended slight chance pops a few more hours. With strong forcing absent and moisture decreasing in the warm sector, expect no additional precip later today. Warm advection will occur on a breezy southerly flow. Aided by solar energy filtering through mainly mid and high clouds, temperatures will rise above normal, with highs reaching the mid and upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Low pressure system will gradually move east to Missouri by Saturday, while a warm front remains draped across the Great Lakes, leaving the ILN area in the warm sector. With models trending a bit slower with this system, expect dry weather to persist tonight. For Saturday, moisture and lift ahead of the low will produce increasing chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Western locations will see the best chance of showers being closer to the bulk of moisture and forcing. Chance for severe thunderstorms will be limited by marginal instability featuring CAPE values reaching perhaps 500 J/KG. Continued warm advection on a southerly flow will allow high temperatures around 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An active weather pattern this weekend into next week. Initial upper level low to lift northeast and open up as it tracks from the mid MS Valley across the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night. Axis of moisture and instability will result in a period of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday ahead of surface cold front. Highs on Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Temporary dry period to work in early Monday as ridging builds in ahead of next upper level trof. Next shortwave and associated surface wave to track quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley. In the warm moist environment temperatures to rise to highs from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Break in precipitation will be short lived with showers and thunderstorms re-developing Monday afternoon into Monday night. Pcpn to end early Tuesday as surface high builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Surface high to slide east with upper level ridging building in Wednesday. This will provide dry weather and continued mild temperatures. Highs on Wednesday to range from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Active weather pattern to continue with next upper level low getting kicked northeast from the southern plains into the mid MS Vly by Friday morning. Will bring chance pops Thursday and then likely pops Friday with a chance of thunder. Highs on Thursday and and Friday, generally 60 to 65. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Area is under a southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered far to the west. Though all sites are VFR, a few showers linger near a low level jet located south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Some of those showers may occur in the vicinity of northern TAF sites during the first few couple of hours of the forecast. Wind shear will affect all sites through the first few hours of issuance thanks to the rather potent low level jet. Once the showers and wind shear move east with the low level jet, VFR will continue. Models have backed off on MVFR ceilings so removed them. Surface wind speeds will increase by this afternoon at all sites, with gusts as high as 31 knots at DAY. VFR is still expected near the end of the forecast, though wind shear is forecast to return with another round of the low level jet. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities expected Saturday night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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