Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 132008 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 408 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AS NIGHT FALLS BUT PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND INDICATIONS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME ARE THAT ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT IS PRESENT THAT SLEET IS A REAL POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS DOWN AND SNOW BECOMES PREVALENT. AT THIS MOMENT...AN INCH OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORTHWESTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP EARLY TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE REGION TO LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A RAPID TURN-OFF TO THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL BE ONLY A MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...LOW 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE A FULL 25-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TODAYS LOWER 80S. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH PAST TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OFF ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED...WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL WORK TO AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ANY THUNDER MENTION UNTIL THE END OF THE KDAY TAF AND IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE KCVG TAF. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL EXCEPT THE LONGER KCVG TAF. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KCVG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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