Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161451 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 951 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front that produced widespread rain has moved south, allowing colder temperatures and drier conditions to visit with high pressure by tonight. On Saturday, low pressure traveling across the Southern Appalachians will bring precipitation mainly to southeastern locations. High pressure and dry weather will return for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A cold front has moved south of the ILN FA. Rain that has persisted in residual lift and moisture behind the front will gradually come to an end. It appears that precip is outrunning arrival of near freezing temps so removed light snow accumulations. Flood watch remains in effect until 2 pm. Though radar is overestimating precip amounts, around an inch of rain over the last day, falling on soils exhibiting seasonally low capacity, has resulted in some localized urban, small stream, and tributary flooding. Temperatures will drop to the mid 30s to low 40s by mid afternoon as cold advection takes hold. Northwest winds will gust over 20 mph in the rather tight pressure gradient behind the cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Dry conditions are expected overnight tonight. On Saturday a surface low will move southeast of the region and an upper level disturbance will move through primarily northern portions of the region later in the day on Saturday. There is still some question on precipitation type as to whether or not ice will be in the clouds during part of the day. Went on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures on Saturday with high temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s. Went with a solution that has more snow on Saturday, however even with this solution expect snowfall accumulations to be under an inch with temperatures in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... System will be pulling out early in the period with some lingering light snow or rain possible Saturday evening. High pressure will move across the area on Sunday. Upper ridging will build into the region during the early part of the week. Expect showers to move north through the area Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will then return to unseasonably warm. A slow-moving cold front extending from the lower Great Lakes into the mid Mississippi Valley which will allow showers to persist, especially across the northwest part of the forecast area. With abundant moisture in place and the slow progression of the system, there will be the potential for heavier rainfall at times. This in combination with wet soil will bring the possibility for flooding. The front will sag southeast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday finally pushing precipitation to the southeast. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler behind the front although still above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will continue to move through the TAFs this morning. Rain will continue this morning before tapering off. Cigs will generally be MVFR to IFR today and gradually become VFR to MVFR by this evening. Winds will be gusty at times today with the passage of the front with winds around 20 knots. Visibilities will also be reduced with some of the rain. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Saturday and Monday into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ063>065- 072>074-079>082-088. KY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ100. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Novak NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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