Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290923 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 523 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...OFFERING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... H5 TROF TO PASS EAST THRU THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LIFT TO STAY SE OF ILNS FA TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOWING UP ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED SFC TROF. THESE SHOWERS TO WORK SLOWLY EAST ACRS ILN/S SE COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AS MID/SFC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN THIS AFTN EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIGGING H5 SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAM SOLN/S FURTHEST WEST WITH THE GFS SOLN BEING EAST. BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN TO OUR NE BUT GIVEN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLN TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF HAVE SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ACRS THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVERNIGHT. AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS SE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT TO SWING THRU OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE SW AND SOUTH. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER ON TUESDAY...RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. SKINNY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY GET SHUNTED EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. INITIAL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. ] AT THE SURFACE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH DYNAMICS THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN READINGS WILL DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ARE MOVING EAST AND THIS WILL LEAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CLEAR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY IN A REGIME ABSENT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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