Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252300 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 700 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening. The front will stall out across Kentucky allowing for continued thunderstorm chances across this area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Rain across the south has allowed for temperatures to drop. Due to this heat index values have dropped below advisory and warning criteria. As the evening progresses temperatures will continue to drop. Went ahead and cancelled the heat advisory and excessive heat warning with values below criteria. A few showers and storms will be possible this evening across mainly southern portions of the region closer to the frontal boundary, however severe chances have diminished. Due to this have updated the HWO to say probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Temperatures will be quicker to drop across northern portions of the forecast area overnight as cooler and drier air begins to work into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Frontal boundary will stall out across the area for Tuesday. This will allow for continued thunderstorm chances across mainly northern Kentucky. This will be largely diurnally driven although cannot rule out some more isolated activity Tuesday morning and Tuesday night. Dewpoints will be lower on Tuesday in addition to lower temperatures. Due to this heat index values will be lower as well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary. Weak upper level disturbance is expected to move through late in the overnight hours Tuesday night. In addition a weak boundary will be across the area. Due to this combination expect isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Limited chance preciptiation chances to near the Interstate 70 corridor closer to the boundary and upper level support. Due to some uncertainty on the location of this boundary have a slight chance in across remainder of the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather will work back into the region toward the end of the work week. The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region will initially be located underneath a belt of westerly flow aloft. Thereafter, mid level energy will dig into the region from the northwest, allowing deeper moisture to return north ahead of it, along with a greater risk for showers and thunderstorms. For Wednesday into Thursday, with a weak left over boundary near the Ohio River, chance of showers and thunderstorms will be more relegated in this area. By Friday, with a larger scale trough and deeper moisture advecting northward, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage. As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid level trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east. allowing surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday into Monday, bringing a return to dry weather. Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend. Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and storms have fired along and downstream of a slowly- moving boundary parallel to and just east of the I-71 corridor in Ohio. This boundary will slowly drift S/E thru the afternoon, allowing the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK to remain dry thru 00z Tuesday. A cold front stretching from MI southwestward through southern IL will move S/E thru the evening hours, allowing for winds to turn more northwesterly for the overnight period. Winds will remain very light overnight, allowing for the possibility of BR/MVFR VSBYs to develop once again for southern sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KILN, especially as front may be a bit slower to usher in drier air for these sites. VFR conditions are expected after 12z Tuesday as the front stalls south of the terminals. There exists a little uncertainty as to how far south the front will progress before stalling. This will dictate where SHRA/TS development will be possible on Tuesday afternoon, but still expect coverage to be concentrated south of southern terminals of KCVG and KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...KC

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