Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161129 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 629 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the Midwest will track through the Ohio Valley tonight. This high will exit the area to the east on Friday with strong southerly winds bringing a warm shot of air to the region Friday and overnight. A strong cold front will cross the region Saturday with significantly colder air behind it and the chance for some light snow showers in Ohio through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cloudy skies will prevail for the better part of the day as cold air behind last night`s frontal passage limits high temperatures today to the lower and middle 40s. High pressure in the Midwest will track towards the CWA late today, but winds will remain from the northwest as the axis of the high only reaches central Indiana by nightfall. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The axis of the high will cross the CWA overnight tonight. Calm or light/variable winds will turn southerly early on Friday from west to east. These winds will increase significantly Friday evening ahead of the next frontal system, and bring a non- diurnal temperature trace with rising readings after midnight. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to around 30, and highs Friday should top out in the 50s for most locations given the influx of warmer temperatures on the southerly winds. As the southerly winds increase even more in the evening, early lows in the mid to upper 40s will rise into the 50s by daybreak Saturday. Rain chances will increase over the northwest in the evening and then spread east along the I-70 corridor, and slowly south overnight. Enough forcing may be present for thunderstorms to occur over the northern half of the CWA towards daybreak Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Saturday, the strong cold front will cross the region late in the day. Categorical rainfall with strong southerly winds will be found in the day, with a wind shift occurring in the late day or early evening. While models are getting more in line with the larger features, the depiction of the rainfall footprint remains in a state of flux with some keeping a minima in the south and east during the day. Have moderate rain and a low chance of thunder in the forecast when pops were categorical on Saturday. Cold air will be found immediately behind the front and lingering rain showers will change over to snow overnight. A continued chance for snow showers will occur north and northeast of a Dayton-Wilmington-Chillicothe line on Sunday, given a favorable moisture profile off of Lake Michigan and sharply colder temperatures. After Saturdays highs in the upper 50s, readings Sunday will only top out in the upper 30s, just a few degrees warmer than the morning`s low temperatures around the freezing mark. Sunday night lows will drop to the lower and middle 20s for the coldest readings of the forecast. High pressure will situate itself in the TN Valley for Monday, with return southwest flow bringing slightly warmer readings to the Ohio Valley for next week. Overnight lows will be right around 30 degrees for the first half of next week under dry conditions. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Area of MVFR clouds has worked back into the tafs behind the secondary cold front. Winds are gusty attm, but should taper down in a couple of hours. Latest satellite loop shows a backedge to the clouds in wrn Indiana, but the loop and model H9 guidance shows that it may close before it get here. Added a tempo scattered for a couple of hours at CVG and LUK beginning at 15Z to cover the possibility. So expect the low clouds to linger today, especially over the north tafs. Delayed the clearing until after 00Z at CVG/LUK, then brought the clearing through through the rest of the tafs by 06Z. VFR conditions should be the rule then for the rest of the night into Friday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday evening. Gusty winds will be present on Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.