Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271512 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1112 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY. THUS THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AN MCV WAS MOVING INTO ILLINOIS WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WHAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LACK OF CONSENSUS IN CAMS HAS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH NCEP AND NSSL ARW RUNS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AND HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TO THIS SCENARIO. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE DECREASING AS STORMS MOVE IN. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE BOWING SEGMENTS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED. AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH. WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS BECOME FAIRLY CALM...THOUGH THIS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL REMAIN HIGHER. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...

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