Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250528 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 128 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DIURNAL CU HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AND GENERALLY JUST EXPECT SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR MAY DEVELOP IN A HUMID AIRMASS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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