Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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036 FXUS61 KILN 191957 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 257 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region through Monday. Dry weather will then continue through much of the week with temperatures remaining below normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A few light rain showers, possibly mixing with a little snow at times, will linger across our east a couple more hours before ending as we get on the back side of the mid level short wave. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee Valley through tonight. This will allow the low level flow to gradually back around to more of a westerly flow overnight. This should allow for clearing to gradually work in from the west through this evening and into tonight. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface high will shift east to off of the southeast coast Monday into Monday night. This will lead to increasing southwesterly low level flow across our area. With a dry airmass in place, expect mostly clear skies Monday and Monday night. This will also allow for temperatures to modify somewhat with highs on Monday in the mid to upper 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Models suggest a rather tranquil period featuring surface high pressure for the most part. Stronger weather systems may stay far to the north, with a notable lack of moisture advection to the Ohio Valley on a west to northwest flow aloft. After high pressure brings dry weather early Tuesday, a disturbance crossing the Great Lakes may bring a few showers to northwestern locations Tuesday afternoon. Brisk winds and colder temperatures will arrive Wednesday with high pressure centered over the Central CONUS. As this expansive area of high pressure travels across the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, dry weather is expected to continue Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance traversing the Great Lakes may bring a few showers of rain and snow Friday night and Saturday. Look for a return of high pressure and dry air for Sunday. Temperatures will vary with respect to the disturbances, featuring the typical warm advection ahead of the disturbances followed by cold advection behind. Expect highs around 50 on Tuesday under warm advection and south winds, falling to the 30s Wednesday due to cold advection on a northwest flow. Readings are forecast to climb back into the 40s Thursday through Saturday, before dropping back into the 30s Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A few very light rain or snow showers may affect the eastern TAFs over the next hour or two. Otherwise, the MVFR to VFR stratus deck across the area should continue to transition to generally all VFR stratocu through mid afternoon. High pressure will begin to build in from the southwest tonight and this will allow for clearing skies this evening with mainly clear skies then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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