Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180556 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather tonight into Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return Tuesday Night into Wednesday as moisture returns ahead of an approaching cold front. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday with the passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Enhanced cirrus has been slow to progress to the southeast. In fact, based on 00Z KILN sounding, the models are currently faster with the 400 mb/300 mb moisture than what is currently depicted on IR satellite. As a result, have slowed down the clearing, but still am expecting cirrus to shift southeast and thin some toward sunrise Tuesday. In the dry airmass, lows will be cooler tonight, ranging from the lower/mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s along and south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will slide east across the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday. Low level flow will veer to the south with an increase in clouds late in the day. Under the influence of WAA temperatures will warm to highs in the lower and middle 70s on Tuesday. Weak s/w moving through the westerly flow will result in an axis of 925 mb convergence. In response to this moisture and weak forcing have a mention of showers over the south/southeast counties Tuesday night. Lows will be milder Tuesday night due to the increase in clouds and WAA. Expect lows in the mid and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The patterns in the long term are not patterns in which the superblend does well, so quite often where there was model agreement took them as targets of opportunity and went away from the superblend. The forecast area will be in between two systems, one to the north and one to the south, on Wednesday. There is some question on how much phasing between the two systems will be present, however does not seem like there will be much. Due to his have limited precipitation chances to the chance category. There is some instability so have thunder mention in as well. Southerly flow on Wednesday will allow for widespread temperatures in the 70s. On Thursday continued southerly flow will allow for temperatures to climb into the 70s to low 80s. Model soundings are indicating wind gusts 30 to 35 mph likely with some higher gusts possible. A cold front will approach and move through on Thursday. There is decent instability during the day. Dewpoints are sufficient in the lower 60s. The timing will be favorable although forcing could be better. Looking at the CIPS Analog guidance there is a very good signal for severe weather being possible on Thursday. Due to model agreement and sufficient severe parameters in place, increased precipitation chances and added severe threat to the HWO for Thursday. Just mentioned damaging winds and hail, however cannot rule out tornadoes as well and isolated flooding issues. Precipitation will taper off Thursday night and dry conditions will be in place for Friday. With cool northerly flow and cold air advection on Friday decreased temperatures from superblend. An upper level low approaches for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will allow for cool and cloudy conditions along with scattered showers. The ECMWF is the outlier and brings precipitation in a lot quicker. Went with the slower solutions and bring only a chance of precipitation for the day on Saturday and more likely precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday, but due to the isolated nature left out of the forecast at this time. Precipitation will gradually taper off Sunday night into Monday. Went cooler than superblend on temperatures through this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Stubborn cirrus shield that has been affecting the tafs is finally starting to shift to the south. The nrn edge has dropped south of I-70 and it should reach the Ohio River by 12Z, leaving the tafs mostly clear. After 12Z, the high pressure over the Great Lakes will move east. The low level flow will veer to the se in response. Mid level cigs will spread north into the srn tafs around 21Z ahead of H5 vort in the srn stream. This disturbance will work into ern KY by 00Z and some scattered SHRA will approach CVG/LUK. Added a VCSH to cover the possibility. For the CVG 30 hour tafs, models are indicating that cigs will lower to MVFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible late tonight into Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Sites

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