Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171354 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 854 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the region today. This will be the start of an extended period of much above normal temperatures. A few rain showers will possible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to be close to 20 degrees above normal, Saturday through Tuesday, with the next chance for rain showers late Tuesday with the approach of a front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid and high clouds associated with a weak short wave dropping down in northwest flow will move off to the east as upper ridge begins to build in later today. Forecast highs look reasonable at this point.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Mid/upper level ridge to build east across the Great Lakes tonight. In warm sector skies to start out mostly clear this evening. As southern upper level low over the southern plains moves into the lower MS Valley late tonight, expect to see an increase in high level clouds from the southwest. Temperatures will be very mild with lows close to normal highs. Expect lows from the upper 30s northeast to the lower 40s southwest. Upper level low to open and track from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley Saturday. Northern extent of rain showers associated with 700 mb deformation zone to develop into ILN/s southern counties, mainly along and south of the Ohio River Saturday afternoon. Temperatures look to be close to 20 degrees above normal, generally in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper trough bringing a chance of showers will be exiting east Saturday night. Extensive high pressure at the surface and aloft will then provide dry and warm weather Sunday into Tuesday. A front stretching from the polar regions to the tropics is forecast to push through with showers late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions are indicated for Thursday. Temperatures will be far above normal due to warm advection and sunshine. Highs mainly in the 60s are expected through the period. This compares to normal highs in the low to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR is expected to persist through TAF period. Weather map features a warm front aligned NW-SE along the eastern flank of an upper ridge. Front has lifted north of the TAF sites which will allow a ridge of high pressure to move in behind. With low humidity up to around 10000 ft, only mid and high clouds have developed in the vicinity of the front, and no precip is expected. A decreasing trend in cloud cover is forecast through the afternoon as the front exits. Mid and high clouds should form again later in the forecast period when an increasingly moist southerly flow develops on the back side of the upper ridge. Winds from the southwest will gust close to 20 knots this afternoon. Kept WS out of the forecast since speeds will remain below threshold for inclusion. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Coniglio

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