Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300556 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 156 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE TORNADO WATCH 369. THE WATCH IS CURRENTLY OUT UNTIL 9 PM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VERY WEAK PVA. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/ LOW WAS ANALYZED IN FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW RIGHT AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO KENTUCKY. ALONG THE WARM FRONT SFC TO 1 KM SRH WAS AROUND 200 M2/S2. GIVEN THESE SHEAR VALUES TORNADO WATCH 369 HAS BEEN ISSUED. STORMS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS STARTED TO PULL NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR CAPE VALUES HAVE RAPIDLY STARTED TO RISE. CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. LATER THIS EVENING THE WEAK LOW WILL PULL EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING A SLOW TEMPORARY END TO RAIN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE SCATTERED. RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY WILL COME FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY TUESDAY IS ALSO FORECASTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY. NAM IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING VALUES AROUND 600 J/KG. SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO AGAIN DIMINISH AS THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN START TO LOOSE STEAM AND STALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH TRYING TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST. BEHIND THE FRONT LOWER PWAT AIR WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL START TO POOL. GFS IS SHOWING PWATS LESS THAN 1.00" BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.00" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAIN. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS HAVE RESULTED IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE TAF FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK TERMINALS WHERE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST INTO MID MORNING. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART. FOR LATER TODAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 18Z AND 22Z TIME FRAME...OR PEAK HEATING. AS TYPICAL...LOCAL VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW INTO THE IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST CELLS OCCUR. WINDS BY AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY FROM A 240 TO 250 DIRECTION WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...DISTURBANCE PIVOTS AWAY AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ATTM. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN

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