Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141929 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 329 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cloudy skies and cool temperatures continue in the area today with some isolated to scattered light rain showers and sprinkles. Drier conditions return by Friday into the upcoming weekend as surface high pressure settles into the eastern Ohio Valley and interior Northeast. Gradually warmer temperatures will build into the region this weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Isolated to scattered light rain showers and sprinkles have developed this afternoon in response to daytime heating (and the corresponding development of a little bit of instby). Coverage of such activity will be diurnally-driven and will decrease towards sunset this evening -- with a dry overnight period to follow. Many of the breaks in the stratus have been filled in by very healthy Cu development, so overall cloud coverage has not changed much throughout the day thus far. As such, temperatures have been slow to rise, even during the afternoon. Do not anticipate much additional warming through the remainder of the heating hours, except where there may be brief peeks of sunshine. Think that this will be the exception rather than the rule, so did not make any notable changes to the ongoing high temperature fcst. After sunset, there remains some model discrepancy in how the Cu to stratocu transition will evolve, which will ultimately impact potential FG development. With ample near-ground moisture, any breaks in the clouds will enhance the radiational cooling and act to increase the FG potential. At this current time, do think that enuf clearing/breaks may develop to support areas of FG by sunrise Friday, although confidence remains low in determination of exactly how dense it may be. While it does not appear to be a classic setup for dense fog (with lingering SCT/BKN stratocu), locally dense fog cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Lows will bottom out in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by sunrise Friday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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After potential FG burn off Friday morning, partly sunny skies should evolve towards the afternoon hours. With the establishment of surface high pressure across the eastern Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend, a marked warming trend will develop over the next several days -- beginning on Friday. Highs on Friday should top out in the upper 70s in the western FA (where cloud cover will be a bit more limited during the afternoon) to the mid 70s in east (where clouds may hang on a bit longer). Quiet weather conditions are anticipated Friday night with nearly-calm winds and lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level ridging will develop into the region and persist through the period. This will result in above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. A short wave lifting from the upper Plains towards Hudson Bay will provide enough forcing to push a cold front into the Great Lakes region, but it appears that this boundary will stall near the northwest part of the forecast area on Monday. Cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Some MVFR /and even some brief IFR/ CIGs remain in the local area in the wake of the well-defined upper low. Spotty -SHRA and drizzle has redeveloped early this afternoon with diurnal heating (especially where there have been a few breaks in the stratus). Cannot completely rule out a very brief MVFR VSBY in heaviest shower activity, but coverage of such a condition (or lack thereof) precluded inclusion in the TAF at this time. Additionally, a fairly healthy Cu field has developed where the low stratus has/had started to scour, so do not anticipate much in the way of overall clearing through the first part of the TAF period. SHRA and sprinkle activity will taper off towards 00z with the loss of daytime heating. Past 00z, the main item of interest becomes the extent/coverage of any lingering MVFR/VFR Cu/stratocu coverage in the area and whether there may be enuf radiational cooling to induce BR/FG development. Model consensus would indicate that reduced VSBYs will develop area-wide towards sunrise Friday, and given BR/FG development earlier today further upstream across IL, did add MVFR and even IFR VSBYs at all terminals by late tonight. With relatively saturated air lingering in the low levels, most widespread BR/FG development will be favored for E/SE parts of the area. This may eventually result in /or transition to/ IFR CIGs around 12z. Did not have confidence yet to include CIGs below 1kft, but this may be warranted should observations trend this way. Any lingering IFR/MVFR CIGs should lift to VFR towards very end of TAF period with a slow clearing trend anticipated Friday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC

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