Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 210217
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1017 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
Low pressure and its associated cold front will push across the area
tonight, with precipitation coming to an end. High pressure
will build in for Tuesday and remain in control for midweek with
dry conditions and cool temperatures. The high will slide off
to the east by the end of the week with southerly air providing
a warm trend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface low will ripple east through KY overnight. Elevated storms
continue over southern Ohio associated with inverted sfc trof
ahead of this sfc low. As the sfc low tracks east thru the Ohio
Valley overnight, precip will end from northwest to southeast.
Expect clouds to hang on with abundant moisture in the low
levels as winds become northerly. Good gradient to temperatures
tonight with lows from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure along the central MS Valley will press east but
looks to stay south of the area as it passes along northern
Kentucky Tuesday. This will keep much of the precip associated
with the low to the south and any rainfall chance will be south
of the region Tuesday evening.
Heading into Tuesday night, with low pressure passing to the
east, cold temperatures will filter in behind the area with lows
in the mid to upper 20s for lows into Wednesday morning.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will generally provide
dry weather to end the work week with temperatures jumping from
around 40 on Wednesday into the 60s by Friday. A warm front
lifting through the region Thursday night and Friday morning may
generate a few showers, especially over our northern counties.
A vertically stacked low pressure system will then ride
northeastward up the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Models
are fairly consistent now indicating that the ILN forecast area
remains in the warm sector through much of the day Saturday
before a cold front passes Saturday night. Painted a picture of
increasing PoPs from west to east beginning late Friday night
and peaking Saturday evening, with a few thunderstorms possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. Lesser rain chances will linger
Sunday and even into Monday as the parent upper low fills and
meanders northeastward slowly across the region. Temperatures
only cool slightly behind our weekend system with forecast highs
dropping from the 60s to near 70 on Saturday down into the
upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday.
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Elevated thunderstorm complex developed in a area of favorable
lift, ahead of a surface low near Saint Louis. This complex has
pushed south of the TAF sites. However, additional storms are
developing along an sfc trof and will affect the TAF sites
through the evening. As the sfc low tracks east thru the Ohio
Valley overnight, precip will end and CIGS will lower through
MVFR to IFR. Expect IFR CIGS and MVFR vsbys in fog into the
morning with an improving trend on Tuesday as surface high
pressure builds in. Expect VFR conditions by afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibility`s possible Thursday and