Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 191950 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 350 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms have formed just west of the area today and are quickly approaching as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. High res models continue to show coverage increasing across the forecast area this evening esp across the frontal zone. CAPE values are around 2000 to 3000 J/kg across the CWA with DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg across the southeastern zones. Effective shear values are maxed out at 50 kts just north of the front with much lower values south of the front. Given the strong CAPE and DCAPE values coupled with the upper level disturbance SPC has issues SVR thunderstorm watch 247 until 3z. Late this evening/ early Saturday morning coverage will begin to diminish as weak subsidence arrives on the back side of the shortwave.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Saturday morning the stalled front will sag southwards behind the shortwave with fog possible across and ahead of the boundary. Saturday morning the stalled front will begin to lift north as a warm front. As this happens scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Saturday afternoon the chance of thunderstorms will continue as weak shortwave moves in from the southwest. Saturday night into Sunday morning the upper level low will rotate northeast towards Minnesota and take on a negative tilt. As this happens strong upper level divergence from the RRQ and upper level diffluence from splitting flow will move into the region. PWATs at this time are also forecasted to rise to around 1.80". Given the strong signals above have kept categorical PoPs. Instability will be decreasing at the time but shear values will be increasing. Thanks to the increasing shear values SPC has put the area in a slight risk for Day 2.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
It appears that the aforementioned cold front will move slowly east through our region Sunday into Sunday night. The slow movement is in part due to the mid level ridge to our east. In either case, categorical PoPs for showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end behind frontal passage which should move out of our eastern zones by early Monday morning. Temperatures will be held down some Sunday due to clouds and pcpn with cooler air moving in Sunday night behind the front. Surface high pressure will build into our region on Monday, giving a period of dry but cooler weather. The upper level pattern will become highly amplified during the upcoming week which will eventually lead to a mean mid level trough setting up residence across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There continues to be some timing issues with the next cold front to push through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A chance of showers will continue during this period, with thunder possible during the peak heating of Tuesday into Tuesday evening. By Thursday, mid level trough will be slow to progress to the east which may keep a few lingering showers. Another quick moving system in the northwest flow aloft may bring another threat for showers Thursday night into Friday. Below normal temperatures can be expected by mid to late week with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then perhaps getting back into the 70s on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have formed just west and east of the TAF sites this afternoon with all locations currently VFR. An upper level disturbance can currently be seen on WV heading east with numerous thunderstorms developing out ahead. Latest suite of high res have these showers and thunderstorms pushing east and affecting the eastern TAF sites starting around 21z. Inside heavier thunderstorms IFR or lower restrictions to visibility will be possible. As the shortwave heads east a brief period of subsidence will occur. As this happens the weak front will sag south. Light winds with plenty of moisture will allow fog/ mist to form. Low ceilings will also be possible (esp. if winds remain slightly elevated) behind the boundary. The main question with the cigs vs. fog will be the placement of the boundary. For now have trended TAFs towards the NAM solution which pushes the front slightly further south. During the late morning/ early afternoon Saturday another batch of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the warm front lifts north. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Haines

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.