Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180010 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 710 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level system will track east across the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Otherwise, high pressure will predominate into early next week resulting in much above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Southerly flow will persist through the night. Skies will be mainly clear, with some high clouds possibly spreading in from the southwest late. Forecast lows near warmer guidance numbers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Upper low will weaken as it tracks east across the Tennessee Valley into the central Appalachians Saturday through Saturday night. This will spread clouds across much of the forecast area and thus will keep temperatures during the day a few degrees lower than today. Showers associated with this may also spread into the southern third of the forecast area. It still looks like low chance PoPs are sufficient. Plenty of low level moisture will be left in the wake of the system, so expect clouds to linger through Saturday night. These clouds along with no change in air mass will result in very mild lows, warmer than normal highs for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period begins with the region between systems. A filling H5 s/w trof is pushing off to the east coast, while a H5 ridge is out over the MS Valley. The H5 ridge will begin to build into the region on Sunday. At the same time a sfc high pressure ridge will be across the Ohio Valley. Lingering low level moisture early Sunday morning will gradually decrease by afternoon. Highs on Sunday will warm, rising to the lower to mid 60s. Although these will be about 20 degrees above normal, records should be safe as they are in the 70s. Dry weather will continue into Monday as the center of the H5 ridge reaches the area. Monday will be warmer for the southern sections as temperatures reach the upper 60s. This too should be below the daily record, as the record high at CVG on Monday is 72. Across the extreme northern counties highs will linger in the lower 60s. Monday night the H5 ridge axis slips into the Appalachians. For Tuesday, a cold front will be pushing out of the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. There is a little spread on the strength and timing by the models. Northwest counties will have a better chance at seeing showers Tuesday afternoon. Kept PoPs capped in the Chance category this run. The front pushes through the region Tuesday night. Went high Chance PoPs across the fa along the front. Pcpn chances linger Wednesday morning across the se, before drier air works in. Despite a frontal passage in February, temperatures will remain well above normal, ranging from 60 to 65. A strong storm system will be developing in the Rockies late Wednesday night into Thursday, leaving the region under a weakly forced airmass. A few pop-up showers could be possible on Thursday. Strong low pressure system will develop in the plains Thursday night into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley by late Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the advancing cdfnt. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to prevail though the TAF period. Only a few high clouds are expected overnight, then mid clouds will increase during the daytime Saturday as a weak system passes to the south of the region. Can`t rule out a stray shower at KCVG/KLUK, but confidence is too low for any inclusion in the TAFs. Potential also exists for MVFR cigs to develop toward the Cincinnati area beginning Saturday evening. Some guidance suggests as early as 00Z, but believe mid to late evening is more likely. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sat 2/18 68(1948) 63(1948/1994/2011) 64(1948) Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...BPP CLIMATE...

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