Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181104 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 704 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move into Ohio today, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Tuesday and Wednesday when the front is forecast to stall over the region. Dry weather is expected Thursday with the return of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak cold front extends from the far northwest corner of Ohio, southwest across Indiana to Southern Illinois. The front is moving into the less favorable environment of an upper ridge, which will allow further weakening to occur as the front makes its way gradually into Ohio today. However, enough moisture and convergence will persist along the front to produce increasing clouds, and probably a few showers and thunderstorms that will mainly affect locations northwest of Dayton. Parts of the forecast area will see no precip, especially in the southeast, away from the bulk of the moisture and forcing. Highs reaching the low to mid 80s will be about 6 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As the weak front moves slowly across Ohio early tonight, it will outrun much of its mid level support and moisture. This should allow a lull in shower activity through around Midnight. For late tonight and Tuesday, a better chance for showers and thunderstorms will return due to instability under a mid level short wave arriving from the west and interacting with the nearly stationary boundary. Because of greater convergence and lift that is expected along the section of the front extending into Western Ohio, it appears that western locations will have a higher chance for precip. Above normal temperatures will persist, with highs reaching the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Amplified flow pattern with a mean trof over the west and a ridge over the Great Lakes. Weak shortwave to undercut the ridge and drop southeast through the Ohio Valley at mid week. This shortwave combined with marginal instability will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. The best chance will occur over the southwest and end during the afternoon as the s/w passes south. The mid level ridge to strengthen over the Great Lakes late in the week into next weekend. This ridge will provide subsidence, dry weather and warm temperatures. Generally expect highs in the lower and middle 80s through the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Aviation to be affected modestly by a weak front moving into Ohio. Expect VFR except at LUK and LCK where BR is reducing visibility again this morning. A few showers may occur by afternoon in the vicinity of western sites CVG LUK ILN and DAY that are closer to the front. Went with VCTS at 18z with models showing CAPE near 1000 J/KG. Otherwise, ceilings are forecast to stay VFR through the period. Winds will be light from the south. Showers may move back in Tuesday morning ahead of a short wave trough, with thunder possible around CVG Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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