Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251414 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1014 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday and move through the region Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will continue to build in from the north today, providing dry conditions across the CWA. Much of the area will also see a good deal of sunshine (with a few afternoon cu), although still have some moisture wrapping around low pressure over the northeast, translating to more clouds across central Ohio and possibly into southern Ohio into the afternoon. Aside from those clouds, it should be quiet with maxima rising into the upper 70s/around 80 along/north of I-70 and into the lower 80s south of there.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Ridge of high pressure extending across the region will persist through Wednesday. This will keep a dry air mass in place and thus little cloud cover. Expect a pretty substantial diurnal range. Temperatures will drop off into the 50s to lower 60s tonight but rebound back into the mid 80s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry conditions will start out the long term period. This will be short lived however as a cold front begins to approach the region. Most of the precipitation will hold off Wednesday night, however a few storms may begin to move into eastern Indiana by Thursday morning. Models are in agreement in moving an area of low pressure through the region on Thursday, however differ on the details in the exact placement of the low. Where the low ends up being will help in deciding where the exact severe weather potential will be for Thursday. General consensus is for the low to move near northern portions of the forecast area. There is the a potential for severe weather near and south of the low with damaging winds and large hail. Due to the low moving across the region, cannot rule out an isolated tornado potential as well. In addition to the severe threat there will also be the potential for heavy rain, especially just north of the area of low pressure. The cold front will move through the region Thursday into Thursday night. After this feature moves through expect precipitation chances to decrease and the severe weather potential will come to an end. There will be additional precipitation chances on Friday as an upper level disturbance works through the region. Tranquil weather conditions and cooler weather will be in place for Saturday and Sunday. Moisture begins to work back into the region for Monday. This will bring a return of precipitation chances to the region. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Bit of mist across the region will dissipate quickly this morning. Stratocumulus moving south will brush by central Ohio. At this point have kept clouds scattered, but cannot completely rule out a temporary MVFR ceiling early in the TAF period. Few to scattered cumulus will develop with the greater coverage in central Ohio. These will dissipate with loss of heating. Some mist/fog may develop across the region late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR visibilities possible into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...

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