Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150003 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 703 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure to our east will move off the Atlantic coast on Wednesday. A cold front will then approach the region on Wednesday with showers expected ahead of it. The front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure will gradually build south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Thursday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will shift east of the area tonight as a cold front and mid level disturbance begin to approach. Upstream cloud trends and model guidance shows a gradual increase in mainly high level moisture for most of the night with cirrus probably thickening and lowering a bit with time. Mid level moisture will begin to increase late. Min temperatures will be coldest in outlying areas outside of the CMH/CVG/and DAY metros with the coldest min T generally north and east of CMH and some of the valleys near the OH River over southern OH and northeast KY. In these areas, a bit more in the way of decoupling should occur and clouds will increase later.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Southerly flow will begin to increase aloft late tonight and will begin to transport in more moisture in advance of a cold front. A few showers should arrive near the IN and OH border around midday with a band of showers working across the remainder of the area during the afternoon and evening. Higher momentum from aloft will likely mix down prior to the arrival of the showers and along and behind the cold front. Sustained winds and wind gusts were increased a bit form the previous forecast. Some gusts into the 20 to 30 mph range are anticipated once the nocturnal inversion mixes out on Wednesday morning. It still appears that highs on Wednesday will be muted in the northwest with clouds, generally in the upper 40s. Where the southeast and northeast KY should experience some sun and in southerly flow to help readings reach the mid 50s. The cold front and mid level wave will move east of the entire region on Wednesday evening and with drier air filtering in on west to northwest, the threat for showers will end from west to east. Mid level height rises and associated surface high pressure building into the region will follow from later Wed night into the day on Thursday. Some cumulus or stratocu should linger or redevelop during the day on Thursday as low level moisture remains in place from around 850 mb and below while some flow off the Great Lakes will be in place helping keeping it in place. Temperatures should reach the lower 40s northwest to upper 40s southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The theme in the extended will be the passage of a strong cold front Friday and Saturday and the expected weather in the warm air ahead of the front and in the cold air behind the front once it has moved through the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the area late Friday through late Saturday morning. Once the front has made its main push through the region on Saturday, general rain showers are expected. The rain will taper off quickly Saturday night. As much cooler air filters into the region behind the front late Saturday night, isolated light snow showers will be possible in the cold northwest flow behind the boundary across the far northern eastern, and southeastern portions of the forecast area. No appreciable accumulation is expected. Any snow that occurs should come to an end by late Sunday morning, before transitioning to light rain showers by early Sunday afternoon. Any left over precipitation should be out of the area by 22Z Sunday. Once this precipitation has exited, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather and very cold temperatures to the area to begin the new work week. Highs on Friday and Saturday should make it into the low to mid 50s for most location in the warm air ahead of an approaching cold front. A big change is then expected to take place on Sunday and into the beginning of the week, as a ridge of high pressure brings much colder air into the area. Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the 30s for most locations, with a few max readings in the lower 40s possible along the southern edge of the forecast area on Monday. Nightly lows should generally be in the 20s from Saturday night through Monday night, which will be a big change from the 40s that will be expected Friday night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure to our east will move off the Atlantic coast on Wednesday. For tonight, winds will veer to the southeast while mainly high level clouds increase from the west ahead of the next weather system. On Wednesday, embedded energy in the mid levels will track east across the Great Lakes. At the same time, moisture will be drawn north ahead of an approaching cold front. Low level forcing and upper level support will be sufficient to produce a period of widespread showers Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. As this occurs, models agree that ceilings will drop fairly quickly from VFR to IFR over a period of 3 to 4 hours. In addition, showers will reduce visibilities into at least the MVFR category, with pockets of IFR possible in the more heavier showers. By Wednesday night, showers will end as the cold front moves east across the terminals. IFR ceilings will likely lift back up into the MVFR category behind frontal passage. Models are at odds as to how much partial clearing may occur late, especially toward the KCVG/KLUK terminals. Will continue to fine tune this forecast with later updates. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger into Thursday. MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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