Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251054 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 654 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE ADVECTING ON A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...RESULTING IN SHOWERS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE INDICATE THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE MOST AFFECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING...DECREASING BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER CLOSER TO COOLER AIR ALOFT LOCATED NEAR THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXHIBITING A NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DURING THE DAY TO REACH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LULL IN FORCING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TO START TONIGHT. THAT WILL CHANGE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE MOISTURE WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT LYING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT PRESENT AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DID PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THE COLD FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE HELD UP BY A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE CONTAINED BY THE COLDER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY DECREASING TO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS OHIO CLOUDS WILL ERODE. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY COLD. 850 TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -15 DEGREES C. BRINGING THIS TEMPERATURE DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES F. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX VALUES. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE WITH THE GFS STRENGTHENING THE SHORTWAVE AND DIVING IT SOUTH. THE EURO KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. EITHER WAY THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MID LEVEL S/W LIFTS NE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS LEAD TO AN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO. THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NE AND WEAKEN COMING TO AN END AT ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THIS PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE TAFS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTBY ACRS ALL BUT THE DAY TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IN SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL BUT DAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL VEER TO THE SW WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AND WILL GUST AS HIGHS AS 28 KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...AR

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