Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 110558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1258 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 2500-3000 FEET...AND THUS MANY OF THE HEAVIER BELOW-CLOUD-LAYER RETURNS WERE COMPLETELY MISSED BY THE KILN RADAR. WHEN CONSIDERING THE BIGGER MOSAIC PICTURE...AND MENTALLY INTERPOLATING TO FILL IN THE GAPS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DOWNWARD TREND HAS BEGUN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST STARTING TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN JUST FLURRIES HEADED INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 TO -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH. DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24 DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10 SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL CLEAR AREAS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO CUTE SO WILL JUST HANG ON TO SOME BKN VFR STRATOCU THROUGH MID MORNING. TOUGH TO ALSO RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION OF SOME MVFR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT. WILL THERE ALLOW FOR SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...BUT VSBYS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE AWAY. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...JGL

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