Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260033 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 833 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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DIURNAL CU AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ADVECTION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA MORE STABLE...EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO ANYTHING THAT MAKES IT IN. EXPECT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA NEAR KCVG. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH IN INDIANA SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS. MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...PADGETT

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