Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151350 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 950 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered to the east will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today through Sunday. Warmer temperatures are forecast in the southerly flow behind the high. A cold front arriving on Monday will bring the next chance for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure has settled across eastern parts of the Ohio Valley this morning, which will slowly drift northeastward through today as mid/upper level ridging builds into the region. The patches of dense fog that had formed earlier this morning are beginning to burn off. Some low clouds have developed -- especially in the lower Scioto Valley -- and this may persist into early afternoon before completely scouring out. Nevertheless, expect rapidly improving visibility throughout the area within next hour, so will allow dense fog advisory to expire at 10 AM EDT. Except for spotty patches of low clouds, most areas will see mostly sunny skies late morning into early afternoon before Cu develops this afternoon. Even with this, partly cloudy to partly sunny skies are expected this afternoon into early evening before Cu field dissipates towards sunset with loss of daytime heating. Went close to guidance for highs today -- ranging from the mid 70s in the east to near 80 degrees in the west (where cloud cover will be a bit more limited).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to move slowly northeast tonight through Saturday, pushed by a weak upper flow associated with a ridge aloft. Dry weather is forecast to persist in the circulation around the high, though fog may form early Saturday morning under calm winds and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend, with highs forecast to reach the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper level ridge will provide dry weather and above normal temperatures this weekend. A shortwave lifting through southern Canada will allow a surface cold front to push into the Great Lakes Monday. Marginal instability along with this front develops over the northwest, providing a chance of thunderstorms Monday. A weak embedded shortwave along with marginal instability will keep a slight chance/chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday over ILN/s southwest counties. More uncertainty develops regarding strength and position of mid/upper level ridge for the end of the week. Will favor a solution closer to the ECMWF with dry weather and warm temperatures for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... With humid air trapped near the ground under high pressure, aviation will be affected by FG and BR early this morning. Went with visibility as low as VLIFR at LUK and DAY through 13z. Other sites will see LIFR to MVFR. Conditions will improve back to VFR within a couple of hours after sunrise. BR and FG may form again Saturday morning under a similar weather pattern. Expect no precipitation through the TAF period. Ceilings should stay VFR outside of surface obscuration. Winds will be light out of the south around the slow moving high pressure. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ046-055- 056-064-065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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