Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 172339 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 739 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRATOCUMULUS IS DIMINISHING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED ON BIAS TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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INHERITED TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONT TO ALLOW A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY KLUK/KILN...BUT ALL SITES HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG LATER ON. CONTINUED WITH PVS FORECAST IDEA OF SOCKING IN KLUK TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD RIVER VALLEY DRAINAGE EVENT IF SKIES CAN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. ALSO BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN AT KILN A LITTLE LOWER THAN PVS FORECAST BASED ON WINDS TURNING NELY WITH TIME AND DECREASING TO 3KTS OR SO...WHICH BOOSTS PROBABILITIES OF FOG BASED ON CLIMO DISTRIBUTIONS HERE. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF BY 13Z OR SO...WITH DIURNAL SCT CUMULUS DVPMNT LOOKING LIKELY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON UNDER NELY BREEZES OF 7-8KTS AT PEAK HEATING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...BINAU

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