Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160936 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 436 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the Midwest will track through the Ohio Valley tonight. This high will exit the area to the east on Friday with strong southerly winds bringing a warm shot of air to the region Friday and overnight. A strong cold front will cross the region Saturday with significantly colder air behind it and the chance for some light snow showers in Ohio through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cloudy skies will prevail for the better part of the day as cold air behind last night`s frontal passage limits high temperatures today to the lower and middle 40s. High pressure in the Midwest will track towards the CWA late today, but winds will remain from the northwest as the axis of the high only reaches central Indiana by nightfall. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The axis of the high will cross the CWA overnight tonight. Calm or light/variable winds will turn southerly early on Friday from west to east. These winds will increase significantly Friday evening ahead of the next frontal system, and bring a non- diurnal temperature trace with rising readings after midnight. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to around 30, and highs Friday should top out in the 50s for most locations given the influx of warmer temperatures on the southerly winds. As the southerly winds increase even more in the evening, early lows in the mid to upper 40s will rise into the 50s by daybreak Saturday. Rain chances will increase over the northwest in the evening and then spread east along the I-70 corridor, and slowly south overnight. Enough forcing may be present for thunderstorms to occur over the northern half of the CWA towards daybreak Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Saturday, the strong cold front will cross the region late in the day. Categorical rainfall with strong southerly winds will be found in the day, with a wind shift occurring in the late day or early evening. While models are getting more in line with the larger features, the depiction of the rainfall footprint remains in a state of flux with some keeping a minima in the south and east during the day. Have moderate rain and a low chance of thunder in the forecast when pops were categorical on Saturday. Cold air will be found immediately behind the front and lingering rain showers will change over to snow overnight. A continued chance for snow showers will occur north and northeast of a Dayton-Wilmington-Chillicothe line on Sunday, given a favorable moisture profile off of Lake Michigan and sharply colder temperatures. After Saturdays highs in the upper 50s, readings Sunday will only top out in the upper 30s, just a few degrees warmer than the morning`s low temperatures around the freezing mark. Sunday night lows will drop to the lower and middle 20s for the coldest readings of the forecast. High pressure will situate itself in the TN Valley for Monday, with return southwest flow bringing slightly warmer readings to the Ohio Valley for next week. Overnight lows will be right around 30 degrees for the first half of next week under dry conditions. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry slot has wrapped into the region behind the rain band. Skies have cleared in the western tafs and the clearing will reach the ern tafs within the hour. A secondary cold front is pushing quickly to the se and will reach the fa by 08Z, before spreading over the rest of the tafs. Right behind the front is another area of MVFR cigs. Srn edge of cloud deck will settle down around the Ohio River, putting KCVG/KLUK near the edge. Surface low pressure will be pulling northeast up the St. Lawrence valley on Thursday. However, the clouds will be slow to erode, with scattering not expect from southwest to northeast until between 21Z-03Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday evening. Gusty winds will be present on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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