Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230509 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 109 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will drift slowly southeast across the Tennessee Valley tonight into Sunday. This will lead to a few showers mainly along and south of the Ohio River tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the first part of the week along with a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Upper low to drift south into the TN VLY Sunday. Model solns continue to trend south with rain showers. Radars continue to back this trend up with all pcpn south of ILN/s FA. As upper low shifts south expect all pcpn to stay south of the area. Therefore have ended all pcpn across the area tonight. Clouds will continue to thin with clearing from the north. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to the lower/mid 40s across the southeast. Have continued the mention of patchy frost over the northwest counties with temperatures in the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The upper level low will continue to drift slowly southeast into the southeastern United States Sunday through Sunday night. The models have trended farther south with the pcpn associated with this feature with the northern fringe possibly sneaking up just into our far southeastern fa. Will therefore just allow for some slight chance pops down toward Portsmouth but otherwise have a dry forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. We will remain in northeasterly low level flow through the day on Sunday and as a result may not warm quite as much as indicated by guidance. Expect highs on Sunday mainly in the low to possibly mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Monday and Tuesday should have dry weather with a closed upper low traveling well to the south, leaving the ILN area under a ridge of high pressure. With models trending slower, mainly dry weather will continue into Wednesday, until the threat for showers and thunderstorms begins in increasing moisture and instability ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm chances will continue Wednesday night and Thursday as the front swings across the area. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday when the front is forecast to stall and then lift back north toward I-70. Above normal geopotential heights suggest warmer than normal conditions. Temperatures forecast to rise into the 70s each day will indeed be above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Skies have generally cleared out over the region tonight, and mostly clear skies are expected through the rest of the TAF period, with just some cirrus at times. Winds will remain out of the NE through the TAF period as well, with sustained winds of 5-10 knots, gusting to 15-20 knots during the afternoon on Sunday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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