Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020958 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 458 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF IN THE MORNING. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS KENTUCKY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUT SHALLOW COLD DOME WILL REMAIN. SO AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...EXPECT IT TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR WILL START OUT A LITTLE DEEPER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WITH THE CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION ENDING BY MIDDAY. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE DAY. IN FACT TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IN ADDITION WITH SNOW MELT FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES ADDING TO RUNOFF...FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION MAY MIX IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING UPSTREAM ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHERE ACTIVE ZONE WILL BE AS DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH IS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. FOLLOWING THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AND WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS PER THE GFS OR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEING FURTHER NORTH PER THE NAM.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THERE MAY STILL BE PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. AND IF THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW GEFS MEAN AND KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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