Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290116 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 916 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THAT IS PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHOWERS WERE DIURNALLY ENHANCED. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRIMARILY INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GREATEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH MORE SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY GET SHUNTED EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. INITIAL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. ] AT THE SURFACE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH DYNAMICS THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN READINGS WILL DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. UNTIL THEN...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT KCVG AND POSSIBLY KLUK IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SOME SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN VFR CIGS TO THEN LINGER ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW AND A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY MVFR BR LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED KLUK/KILN/KLCK. ANY BR SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING WITH FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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