Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210903 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 403 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS IT DOES. WENT A LITTLE WARMER ON HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW WHERE LOWS DID NOT GET AS LOW AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S AROUND BELLEFONTAINE TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT. IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2 OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY. EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE DEGREES. CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW. A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AS THE HIGH CROSSES SOUTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. BROUGHT IN SOME 4KFT CLOUDS TO CVG THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A BKN DECK TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...FRANKS

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