Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221327 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 827 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BEFORE AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING A WINTRY MIX TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS AND A NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN WITH COOLING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A CHANGE AGAIN IN JUST HOW FAST AND FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL...WITH NOW THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WITH THIS CHANGE COMES A DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH MORE RAIN MIXING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT HAVE A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NOW...DOWN TO AN INCH OR LESS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. WITH THESE SHOWERS DEPARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...THIS TIME A CLIPPER PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE AGAIN IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...HAVE CONTINUED WITH AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND SLIGHTLY LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ONCE RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30...BEFORE A SLIGHT REBOUND TO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. WE COULD SEE A FEW HOLES OPEN UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO CLOSE UP FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND WITH MVFR CIGS EXTENDING WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH...PREFER TO REMAIN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...JGL

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