Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240534 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1234 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING...SPARKING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER OUTSIDE URBAN AREAS THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS INITIAL DROP DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS. BUT OVERALL IDEA OF READING BELOW ZERO AREA WIDE AND WELL BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON FORECAST TO GET ABOVE 5 MPH. THAT THRESHOLD IS NEEDED...IN ADDITION TO WIND CHILL VALUES -10 OR LOWER...FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SO CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM IN THIS CASE PUTS READINGS IN THE 20S. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SURFACE FRONT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO CREATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. GIVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS...MARGINAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES DURING THE DAY IN COLD ADVECTION WILL LET READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MIMIC THOSE ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN TOPPING THE 30 DEGREE MARK OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... QUICK MOVING...LIGHT AREA OF SNOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THURSDAY...HAS SHIFTED NORTH A LITTLE. THE START TIME ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE EARLIER. BROUGHT A SWATH OF CHANCE POP SNOW ACROSS THE FA. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN UNDER AN INCH. AFTER THE H5 ENERGY AND SNOW PUSHES BY...THE MAIN CORE OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A GOOD ARCTIC BLAST WITH LOW BELOW ZERO FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE...WHERE IT WILL STILL BE AROUND ZERO. THE HIGH WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 15 TO 25 DEGREES...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTER SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PUSHING A SYSTEM OUT THE COUNTRYS MID SECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY. RIGHT NOW WENT WITH SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT IF WARM AIR COMES IN ALOFT QUICKER...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE SFC TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE ZERO. CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN ON BEHIND THE FRONT...CHANGING THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY CHANGING PCPN BACK TO RAIN FOR && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP THEN AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>045-051-052. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...PADGETT

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