Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161909 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 309 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in dry and very warm conditions through mid-week. Moisture will be pulled into the region on southwest winds ahead of the next front for the latter part of the week, increasing the chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. A cold front will then cross the Ohio Valley late Sunday or early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Area is between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the northwest. With forcing and deep moisture absent, skies are forecast to remain mostly clear through tonight. Warm advection on a southerly low level flow will keep low temperatures well above normal, in the low to mid 60s, even under mainly clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moisture will begin to pool in the Ohio Valley ahead of the next system that will linger in the plains states. A weak signal of a pre-frontal convergent boundary northwest of the I-71 corridor may permit some showers to develop overnight Wednesday, but any activity is expected to be light and primarily showers. Did not remove the thunder from the forecast even though little if any upper level forcing is present to perpetuate deeper convection. Low level forcing is also lacking, but there may be a storm or two that develops southwest of the area and tracks northeast along the aforementioned boundary. SPC has general thunder reaching all but the far southeastern CWA through 12z Thursday. Think this is overdone but was also leading to the perpetuation of thunder overnight. Temperatures will once again top out in the upper 80s to around 90, with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s, possibly around 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Active weather pattern through the long term forecast period. Mid/upper level ridge flattens and shifts east with surface front dropping south into the region Thursday night and stalling out south of the Ohio river Friday. This feature will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances. Very warm temperatures to continue Thursday on the warm side of the front, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Model solns more similar with the front stalling out south of the Ohio river Friday. Will keep chance pops with best chance across the southern counties. Highs on Friday will be a little cooler, ranging from the the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south. Front lifts north on Saturday as mid/upper level trof develops over the plains. This front meandering across the region will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will warm with highs from 80 to 85. Surface wave of low pressure to eject northeast into the Great Lakes with associated cold front pushing east across the region Sunday/Sunday night. This will bring an enhanced chance for thunderstorms. Have continued categorical pops for this period. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will be a little cooler, ranging from the 75 to 80 Sunday. A lingering chance of precipitation Monday across the southeast counties. Cooler temperatures expected Monday with highs a little below normal, ranging from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Surface high pressure to provide temporary dry period Tuesday. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs generally 70 to 75.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Few cu and thin ci will be found over the region today and tomorrow. An occasional gust will be present this afternoon but should not be the rule of the day and has been left out of the forecast update today. Likewise, model guidance suggests a hit-and-miss low end llws present overnight for an hour or two. Without a clear signal, decided to remove this from the forecast. Even if it were to materialize, it is barely touching the lowest end of the spectrum for inclusion. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Randall AVIATION...Franks

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