Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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540 FXUS61 KILN 161742 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 142 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PRECIPITATION HAS SLOWLY BEGUN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS TREND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS INDICATES PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BRINGING A CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE DIRECTLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND AS WEAK INSTABILITY BUILDS...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL. POPS HAVE BEEN REFINED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN AT THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (PRIMARILY AROUND 18Z-21Z). IF THE HRRR VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION MAY END UP EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD...AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN FURTHER. THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST (PWAT OF 1.42 INCHES) WITH POOR LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TODAY...WITH A NARROW PROFILE OF CAPE THAT MAY GET TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST. WITH WEAK SHEAR...STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH TO SPEAK OF...AND THUS THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS APPEARS LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD...WITH CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION (AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER) LIMITING HEATING POTENTIAL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO AT 07Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIKELY DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE. RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHWEST OHIO BY 10-11Z...MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. THEN AN ADDITIONAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GIVEN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /POSSIBLY AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY AFTERNOON/...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER VORT MAX PROMOTING LIFT. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN RELATIVE WEAK INSTABILITY /MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT A LOCALLY STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...FAVORING UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... WHILE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM/MOIST AND ANY VORT MAX MAY KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING INTO THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON MONDAY. WIND FIELDS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER AND COULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OUT OF THE HWO ATTM. MONDAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE WARM/MUGGY DAY BEFORE CHANGES OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A BIT AND GIVEN CURRENT FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS MAKES SENSE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF WISCONSIN MONDAY WASHES OUT WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED 850 TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK (5 - 10 DEGREES C) ALSO DON`T LOOK AS COOL AS THEY WERE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS 70 A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND THE TAF SITES ALL MORNING...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION) IS NOW MOVING INTO THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO DAYTON AND COLUMBUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH A HEAVY DOWNPOUR COULD BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION...SO THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED SPECIFICALLY IN THE TAFS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BOTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...SO A VCSH WILL BE USED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW...GENERALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...HATZOS/BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...HATZOS

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