Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280839 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 439 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS THE CEILINGS BECOME MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LAG BETWEEN THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING AND THE LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NORTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS BUT LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WHETHER ANY OF THE TERMINALS WOULD BE IMPACTED. SO JUST CONTINUED WITH VC. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK TO IFR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...

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