Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210735 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the area through the first of the week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A surface low currently centered over central Ohio will push slowly off to the east through this afternoon. Fairly widespread showers are persisting north and west of the low across northern portions of our FA. This is associated with a deformation axis that is forecast to gradually weaken through the morning hours. Will therefore continue with high pops across our north through mid morning and then taper them back to chance for this afternoon. Meanwhile, the mid and upper level trough axis will pivot east across our area through this afternoon. The combination of this and some weak instabilities will likely lead to some isolated to scattered shower activity across the remainder of our area this afternoon. Think the best chance for this will be across our southeast where the instability will be a little better. Expect clouds to hang in pretty tough through much of the day so will nudge down temperatures a bit, with highs mainly in the mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. This energy will brush across eastern portions of our FA late tonight into the day on Sunday and may result in a few showers across our east. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough sunshine across at least our western areas to help push temperatures into the lower 70s. Across the east where there could be a few more clouds, expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high pressure and a drier airmass will build in from the west through the day on Monday. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate with highs in the mid 70s expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As the ridge flattens and the area of upper level low pressure in New England gradually weakens, the pattern will change to a more progressive setup of SSW flow from the southwestern states into the Ohio Valley, and will likely remain in this configuration through the rest of the week. With ridging over the southeastern states, this will allow for a steadier stream of warm and moist air into the middle sections of the country. With shortwaves moving through the pseudo-zonal setup on occasion, chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. Initial precipitation chances appear to begin on Tuesday night (in a regime of strong southwesterly 925mb- 850mb theta-e advection). However, contributions from the diurnal cycle will make developmental convection during the afternoons of Wednesday through Friday. Otherwise, timing the small-scale features out will be critical for specifics on this part of the forecast as it gets closer to the current time. With the potential for the development of moderate instability, some severe threat may exist during the second half of next week. Though model runs today were slightly more aggressive with the southerly flow and the potential for warming temperatures next week, the occasional chances for rain (and likely persistence of clouds) will keep the forecast from making more than a small upward adjustment in max temps from Wednesday through Friday. This forecast will allow for temperatures of around 80 each day, but these could need to be increased slightly on any given day if a brief dry / sunny period eventually becomes more certain to occur.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface low pressure remains just southeast of the terminals this morning with cigs quickly starting to fall across the area. The surface low will slowly pull northeast this morning with cigs quickly collapsing down into LIFR. NAM and GFS forecast soundings support this along with the SREF as abundant low level moisture moves in on the backside of the low. LIFR cigs will then improve this morning as the sun rises, but the process will be slow as drier air is not forecasted to move into the area until this evening. Winds during the day today have a chance to include some gusts, but GFS and NAM forecast soundings only really support gusts of at most 20 kts via momentum transfer. Given moisture remaining around this afternoon along with the upper level low so will the chance of precipitation. Cigs will slowly rise to VFR this afternoon and clouds will eventually clear the area by Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in Thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Haines

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