Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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156 FXUS61 KILN 231435 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop southeast across the area today and will interact with the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain today into tonight. Behind the system, temperatures will drop below normal for the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest radar imagery continues to show showers and thunderstorms filling in across our northwestern counties. Latest surface analysis revealed a cold front pushing southeast across central Illinois with Tropical Depression Cindy located over Arkansas. At 23.12z the 250 mb analysis showed a jet streak located over Wisconsin with a sub-tropical ridge located over Florida. Streamlines clearly indicated upper level diffluence as wind barbs showed splitting flow over northern Indiana. The best upper level divergence (from a RRQ) was also located over northern Indiana. Not surprisingly some totals above 4.00" have been reported across the area. This upper level diffluence and divergence will slowly sag southeast today along with the surface cold front. At 500 mb the shortwave axis extended from Arkansas north and east towards Indiana. The PWAT on the latest KILN sounding was 1.93". Latest high res guidance continues to show band of showers and thunderstorms slowly washing over the area and sagging southwards. Given the above have made only minor cosmetic changes to forecast given current radar trends. Will also keep flood watch as is with widespread rainfall totals of one to three inches still in the forecast. Some isolated totals up to four inches will be possible. Prev Discussion-> A complex scenario is setting up across the region today. Deep tropical moisture has been lifting into the region ahead of what remains of Cindy. Band of showers associated with that moisture has is now lifting across the nrn counties. As the center of Cindy lifts north today, the models develop a band of heavy rain across the region. Models have been struggling with their placement of the band. The last few runs of the RAP and HRRR have trended towards a more southern placement, bringing the heavy rain swath into the Cinci Tri- State around 12Z. Previous models were showing this a little farther to the north. So expect this first heavy rain band to affect se IN into srn OH this morning. Then as the cdfnt drops south today, showers and thunderstorms will drop down from nrn OH/IN and will combine into a large swath. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will be possible in the srn areas, with locally higher amounts possible. Will keep the flash flood watch up as is. In addition to the flood threat today, there will be a chance of severe weather se of I-71. A 40-50 kt jet which is forecast to move across TN into srn KY this afternoon, creates favorable low-level shear. Storms will be capable of producing strong winds along with a tornado. Highs today will range from the mid 70s in the Whitewater Valley to the lower 80s in the lower Scioto Valley and ne KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing this evening with heavy rain still affecting the southeast. The precipitation will push east of the region during the first half of the night. Temperatures will drop down to the lower to mid 60s. An isolated location in the nw might reach the upper 50s. On Saturday, a S/W will swing across nrn OH in the fast westerly H5 flow. Showers try to develop across nrn Ohio on Saturday. For now left them north of the region, but this might have to be adjusted in later forecasts. Highs will range from the mid 70s in the nw to lower 80s in the se on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high will nose in from the sw Saturday night. The clouds should scattered out as a result. Lows will drop down into the mid and upper 50s. Another S/W pivots through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Once again this may lead to few showers but left the region dry at this point. Temperatures will be cool Sunday, with highs in the mid/upper 70s. With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and middle 70s. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Converging systems with a cold front to the north and tropical remnants to the south are helping initiate shower activity across the region. IFR cigs are occurring with the lowering ceilings associated ahead of the shower activity, even with stronger sw winds gusting to 20kt in some locations early this morning. Thunderstorms to the north are getting closer and the indication of the heavier rains this morning had me put thunder in the TAFs. Practically any period today will have the propensity to see thunder, and the lower end MVFR and some IFR cigs today will see breaks as they lift in between shower activity at times, but the lower end was the better course of action today. Cold front crosses this evening and skies should clear overnight in most locations. Some isolated showers in the cold pool will remain possible for a few hours after the fropa, but this is only being indicated by a few of the convective allowing models and primarily at DAY versus the rest of the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Haines/Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.