Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130604 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 104 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly build into the area tonight and early Wednesday. Later in the afternoon, low pressure will track southeast and into the Ohio Valley, crossing east through northern Ohio in the evening. A ridge of surface high pressure oriented west to east will bring dry weather for Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Lake effect snow band continues to weaken as the flow backs from Lake Michigan. This trend will continue and the snow should be over by 08Z. The lake effect clouds band will also see a dissipating trend through the night. Some mid clouds ahead of the next storm system will work into the region after midnight. Low temperatures will be in the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A slight warmup is expected tomorrow as southerly winds will pick up and a warm front sets up north of the CWA. Warm is still a relative term, with upper 30s expected sw of metro Cincy and around 30 over and ne of metro Columbus. Low pressure will track into the area late in the day, and an upper level shortwave will be the kicker to provide enough lift ahead of the surface low to initiate snow showers, primarily for the northern half of the CWA. A secondary shortwave will follow the first in the evening, bringing another potential round of snow and then ending any snow threat as it exits the area. Highs may be warmer tomorrow in the southwest if the sun is more abundant. Regardless of the surface temperatures, the cold nature of the atmosphere above it will only permit snow to be the weather type of the day. Significant accumulations are not expected, though an inch or two will remain possible for the northern half of the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. While the snow potential remains higher over the next few days, snow totals in the forecast appear to be too high and could be realistically shaved by half. Adding up 2 and 3 tenths in several 6 hour blocks given the presence of snow was putting a higher total in place than what is actually expected. A more realistic expectation for Wednesday`s snow would be on the order of an inch in central ohio and maybe a half inch northeast of metro Cincinnati. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building across the region Thursday. This high will offer dry weather conditions and cold temperatures. Expect Thursdays temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with highs from the lower 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. Surface low to track through the northern Great Lakes Friday. Best precipitation to stay to ILN/s north closer to the surface wave. Will carry low chance pop of snow showers north. Temperatures look to be around 10 degrees below normal, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Upper level flow backs westerly with ridge building into the region. Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming to near normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the mid 30s northeast to the mid 40s southwest. Mid level flow backs southwesterly with moisture spreading back into the area early next week. ECMWF appears to be an outlier with GFS/Canadian solutions weaker and more progressive. Will continue chance pops with the best chance southeast Sunday. Based on thermal profiles, across the north expect rain and snow during the day changing to snow Sunday night with mainly rain south. Temperatures Sunday look to be above normal with highs from 40 north to the upper 40s south. This pcpn event looks to be progressive with pcpn ending early Monday. Temperatures looks to be close to normal with Mondays highs ranging from the the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. Model solution spread increases by the middle of next week, so confidence decreases. Using a blended approach will continue a dry forecast Tuesday into Wednesday with surface high pressure over the area. Temperatures to moderate a little with highs Tuesday from the around 40 north to the upper 40s south. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Remnant clouds from the snow band that had come off of Lake Michigan will keep MVFR ceilings in the Columbus area for the first few hours of the TAF period before these clouds diminish. Mid clouds will spread across the region and persist through most of the day. Winds will back to the south and strengthen a bit with some gusts ahead of an approaching low pressure system. As this low moves across the area after 00Z, some snow showers may impact the terminals north of Cincinnati. A VFR ceiling will develop which will lower to MVFR late. In addition winds will veer to the west and remain gusty. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible late tonight into Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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