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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 130855
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WORK THROUGH THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA HEAVY
RAIN WILL STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
25 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN TO A ZONAL PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MILD...WITH CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT.

BY MONDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTHERN OHIO. A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THUNDERSTORMS CELLS MERGING INTO A LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 10Z.

IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST...MVFR
CEILINGS AND VCSH WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR A TRAILING
COLD FRONT BEFORE CEILINGS RISE AND THEN DISSIPATE AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...CONIGLIO