Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151205 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 705 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUD FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY AS WE HAVE SEE SOME SUCKER HOLES DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST ONE IS CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND IS WORKING DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OHIO. CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT AT 850 MB SOME OF THESE HIGHER CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 925 MB AND BELOW SHOULD HELP SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH MOVE FARTHER UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD HELP THE CURRENT CLEARING FILL BACK IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WOULD THINK THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS TO HOW THIS WILL EXACTLY PLAY OUT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA BECOMES MORE PREVALENT THROUGH A GREATER DEPTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DO EXPECT TO SEE ANY REMAINING LOWER LEVEL CLOUD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...WE SHOULD ALREADY BE SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING OFF PCPN ACROSS OUR WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND AN AXIS OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXED PCPN. WILL KEEP PCPN PRIMARILY RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND JUST ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE PCPN COMES TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING...SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLY COOLER READINGS RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS OUT...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRUNG OUT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SRN MS VALLEY AND THEREFORE THE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF ITS PCPN IN THE REGION. 12Z GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER...PULLING THE SFC LOW TRACK UP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE OVER DEVELOPED THE H5 S/W. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS IS A MORE MUTED SFC LOW THAT PUSHES EWD THRU THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LEANED TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE SRN HALF. THIS COULD FALL AS A MIX OR RAIN/SNOW OR SOME SLEET. SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THEY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS BACK IN ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A VERY THIN LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG INVERSION AS SEEN ON LOCAL SOUNDING. LATEST PIREPS INDICATE THE CLOUD LAYER IS AROUND 500 AND 1200 FEET THICK VCNTY KCVG AROUND 11Z. LATEST STLT IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A LARGE HOLE IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL OHIO THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OHIO JUST N OF THE KCVG TAF. THIS AREA OF HIGHER CLOUDS IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND LOW LVL MOIST RETURNS FROM THE SE BRINGING THE MVFR CIGS BACK. HIGH PRESS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL FINALLY MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE E AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NE TO NRN IL. THIS WILL FINALLY DISLODGE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA FOR DAYS. THUS MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ITS OWN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THUS THE REPRIEVE FROM MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WHILE NOT IN THE CURRENT FCST CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OVER SW OH LATE TONIGHT DUE THE RAIN AND CONTINUOUS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>054. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAYDU

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