Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181052 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 652 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach and move through the region today into tonight. Some lingering light precipitation will be possible for Monday as an upper level disturbance moves through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weakening system is moving into the region this morning. Precipitation chances for the remainder of the overnight will be higher across western portions of the region and then gradually diminish further east. During the daytime hours today winds will pick up and thunderstorms will increase in coverage in advance of a cold frontal boundary. Best instability will be across southeastern portions of the region, although thunderstorms will be possible across the entire region. There is a slight risk across a large portion of the region for today. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Cannot rule out isolated flooding issues or large hail as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the short term period, however they will decrease in coverage as the night progresses. Cooler air will work into the region for Monday. Went close to guidance for high temperatures for Monday with highs in the middle to upper 70s. An upper level disturbance will keep precipitation changes in the forecast for Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Troughing across the region will pull out towards mid week with nearly zonal flow ensuing through the rest of the period. At the surface, a secondary trough will push through the area on Tuesday. Cannot rule out a few showers with this feature. After this, high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with temperatures rebounding closer to normal. Southerly flow on the back side of the high will result in further warming along with an increase in humidity. Cannot rule out some pop up storms on Thursday but better chance will be Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches and then slides across the area. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Thunderstorms will move through the region this morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop and move through later this afternoon in advance of a cold front. Thunderstorms will taper off tonight although some lingering showers may remain. Vsbys may be reduced with some of the thunderstorm activity, however not confident in vsby reductions at any specific time therefore generally handled in the TAFs with P6SM and shra vcts mentions. Winds will pick up during the day as well with some wind gusts around 25 knots. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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