Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160215 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1015 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the region through the first part of the week. Dry conditions will then persist through the end of the week as temperatures slowly moderate. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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In the wake of a strong cold front northwest winds have ushered in considerably colder temperatures with late evening readings in lower and middle 50s. All showers have pushed off to the east with the front and are done for the night. Latest IR satellite imagery shows a good break in clouds over southern lower MI into northwest OH. Expect a break up of clouds mainly across the north with additional clouds moving back into the area late tonight as mid level trof pivots into the OH VLY. In low level CAA behind the front, temperatures will fall to lows in the lower and middle 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Monday into Monday night with its axis situated west to east along the Ohio River by Monday night. This will lead to dry and cool conditions with highs on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s. With the clear skies and light winds Monday night, will undercut temperatures a bit with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s. This will likely lead to some frost development, especially across southern portions of our area, closer to the ridge axis. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface and upper flow is backed around from neutral to a return to SW flow for much of the forecast period, with seasonable high temperatures giving way to a return to above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the latter part of the week. Overall uneventful extended with GFS/ECMWF and GFSE in better than average agreement with a ridge building in from the southern plains and relaxing the gradient, allowing very light SW flow and sunny skies. Low temperatures Tuesday night will begin to moderate, so that lows will generally be at or above 40 in all but the far eastern forecast area where upper 30s will linger. A return to low 70s Thursday and then mid 70s by Fri/Sat with overnight lows in the 40s to near 50/low 50s by the weekend. Previous runs indicating a dry shortwave pushing through the region Thurs/Thu night now have this energy well north of the area over Ontario/Quebec, so no precipitation expected for the period. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front has pushed east of the TAF sites with rain showers coming to an end. Northwest winds will gust up to 25 kts early this evening, diminishing to 10 kts or less overnight. Models are suggesting a quicker decrease in clouds than latest IR imagery would suggest. There are holes that have developed upstream across lower MI and nw OH, so skies may become scattered at times but generally expect mostly cloudy conditions overnight. MVFR cigs early will likely bump up to VFR later this evening. Expect decreasing clouds and VFR conditions on Monday as surface high pressure builds into the region. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...AR

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