Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 251746
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal
through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and
occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will
lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the
end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today.
This will initially bring a chance of showers along with an
increase in cloud cover. There could be enough instability for an
isolated thunderstorm late in the day, but that is looking
doubtful at this time considering altocumulus cloud shield. Highs
will range from the upper 70s to near 80.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great
Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the
overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the
short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over
the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in
south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term
period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid
80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good
destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the
back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these
will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of
forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range
Thursday into Friday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period. With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend. The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day. Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures. At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak upper level disturbance will exit the eastern terminals over
the next few hours, along with the spotty light showers occurring
For tonight, persistent southwest flow aloft will continue.
Another embedded disturbance is forecast to past east across the
region. High resolution models suggest convective development to
our west late this afternoon and evening across Illinois and
Indiana. Then, with the gradual loss of diurnal instability, and
the lack of strong forcing, precipitation with this feature should
decrease in coverage as it moves into our region. Have included a
vcsh for western terminals and left it out for the eastern
terminals. Predominate conditions should remain VFR, except for
kluk where some partial clearing late may allow some river fog to
form. Have kept conditions MVFR there for now.
On Thursday, upper level southwesterly flow will continue. We may
end up being in a lull in terms of embedded disturbances rippling
through the flow. Thus...some scattered to broken cumulus is
expected with perhaps an isolated shower or storm popping up in
the heat of the day.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Sunday.
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