Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242328 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 728 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED CU ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE FRONT AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS OUR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE CONTINUED WEAK FORCING...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT OR LOWER CHANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH...BUT WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY STARTS OFF WITH A LEFTOVER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR WILL THE FRONT PUSH SOUTH. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA. THE EURO KEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE EURO SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE WET PATTERN WHILE THE GFS IS A DRIER SOLUTION. PWATS ON THE GFS REMAIN BELOW AN 1" THROUGH TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE FRONT LOOKS WEAK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH AND INTO THE TRI-STATE. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS THANKS TO DAY-TIME HEATING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS KEEP PRETTY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN (LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY). LATE THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES WEST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD STEP WITH EACH OTHER HERE. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH THE FRONT (VIA PWAT AND OMEGA VALUES) SO AM EXPECTING PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BR MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT LUK ILN AND LCK LATER TONIGHT AS HUMIDITY INCREASES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS WHILE BECOMING SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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