Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270225 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS THAT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PRECIPITATION LINGER OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE NIGHT AND THUS THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST THERE. HOWEVER WITH MANY LOCATIONS BECOMING SATURATED FROM RAINFALL DURING THE DAY...ANY REMAINING DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE LOW BUT SHOWERS WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL OHIO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ALMOST ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY WITH MVFR/ VFR CONDITIONS. THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHILE A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO GET WRAPPED UP INTO THE LOW LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO PULL SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THE LOW DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER KCVG/ KLUK BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH AT KDAY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ALSO AT KDAY/ KCMH/ KLCK THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CIGS GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWER CIGS GENERALLY NORTH OF SURFACE LOW. BEHIND THE LOW WINDS WILL GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE 850 TO 700 MB JET WILL APPROACH 40 KTS AT TIME. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAINES

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