Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 130151
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
951 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southeast United States will continue to
pull southeast while a cold front and low pressure system
organize over the Mississippi River Valley. Warm air will
continue to ride northeast into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
Thursday, along with slowly increasing moisture leading to the
threat of a few showers and thunderstorms especially Thursday
and Friday. As the low and cold front shift east of the area
this weekend, a much cooler and drier airmass will move in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Quiescent night with just high and perhaps some mid clouds
passing across the area as a short wave moves east. Light
southerly winds will persist. Made some minor adjustments to
blend in latest observations, but overall forecast remains on
track.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As mentioned above, expect any residual activity tied to the
advancing wave in Kentucky to begin to peter out and dissipate
to our southwest on Wednesday morning as the low level moisture
transport axis begins to lag owing to stronger height falls
digging the Intermountain West. May be some residual mid/high
clouds early in the morning, but plenty of sunshine is again
expected. A residual arm of the now-bifurcated low level
moisture transport axis will continue to bring a little better
quality of moisture into the Tri-State and up the western side
of the ILN forecast area, but forecast soundings remain pretty
stable and the moisture shallow, and rain chances in
ensemble/deterministic runs have pulled back with the 12Z suite
of data. Should be another very warm day with highs approaching
70F, and the modest southwesterly flow may mix out shallow
moisture keeping dewpoints in the lower 40s, but am not
expecting any significant fire weather concerns at this moment.
By Wednesday evening and into the overnight, overall low level
flow begins to increase into a developing isentropic
lift/convergence zone that sets up across Indiana/Ohio as time
wears on. Will likely see the chances of showers and storms
begin to increase through the night, but there is very low
confidence on what latitude this activity could fire. The
better convergence/transport signal is still west of the area,
so keeping rain chances in the 30-50% range seems fine for now,
centered on the back half of the night. With increasing clouds
and better moisture flowing into the area, overnight lows will
be considerably more mild on Wednesday night vs previous nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our area will be well into the warm sector during the day on
Thursday with broad southwest flow aloft. This will allow for good
moisture transport up into the region Thursday into Thursday night
ahead of an advancing cold front. Surface dewpoints will be on the
increase through the day, but the axis of highest dewpoints will
remain off to our west, closer to the cold front. As a result, the
better instability will also remain back to our west through much of
the day, before increasing from the west Thursday evening and into
the overnight hours. By this time though, there should be a
decreasing trend in the overall instability as we head into the
overnight.
Will continue with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms from the west, mainly for Thursday afternoon, with
higher pops then overspreading our area Thursday night into Friday
morning as the cold front moves in. Deep layer shear will be on the
increase ahead of the front so a few stronger storms will be
possible, primarily Thursday evening across our western areas.
Damaging winds would be the main threat with any stronger storms.
Pcpn will taper off from the northwest through the day on Friday as
we get on the backside of the cold front. In the warm sector on
Thursday, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs on Friday will range from the upper
50s northwest to the mid 60s in the southeast.
Weak surface high pressure will briefly build into the region Friday
night into Saturday as temperatures cool off. Highs on Saturday and
Sunday will be mostly in the 50s. A low pressure system moving
across southern Ontario and the Great Lakes may lead to a few rain
showers across our area Sunday and then a chance for rain and snow
showers on Monday. Temperatures will continue to cool off with highs
on Monday only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure and dry
conditions will build back into the region on Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain seasonably cool though with highs on Tuesday in the low
to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the period. There will be high and
perhaps some mid clouds passing across the region. It is not out
of the question to see a few cumulus late. Southerly winds will
persist at 10 kt or less.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely
Thursday night into Friday night with IFR possible.
Thunderstorms also possible Thursday night into Friday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...