Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 032035 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 435 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL RIDE E ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 8 PM...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE ON TIME. FARTHER NORTH A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. 12Z NAM HAS PICKED UP NICELY ON THIS AND KEEPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO HAVE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR THE FIRST PARTS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW QUARTER OF THE FA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80. THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082- 088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...JGL

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