Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210851 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 451 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS....DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL NUDGE A LTL EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN ISOLD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 TO 1300 J/KG HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC IN THE FAR EAST THIS AFTN. IN THE HUMID AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE SE COUNTIES OF ILN/S FA. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSY THRU 10 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOG. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER WHICH SHUD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ANY ISOLD CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WILL BE LKLY AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UPR TO HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. CLOUDS AND SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. SIGNIFICANT S/W TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU ILN/S FA DURG PEAK HEATING WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WIND FIELDS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE EXPANDED LKLY POPS DURG THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP HAVE A GRADIENT OF TEMPS FROM LOWER 80S FAR NW TO AROUND 90 SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE NEXT INTRUSION OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AND DWPTS IN THE 50S...EVEN SOME HINTS OF 40S DWPTS IN CNTL OHIO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THURS/FRI SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER /70S TO AROUND 80F/ AND COMFORTABLE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT VERY STRONG TROUGH /REF THE COMPACT/STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED NEAR WASHINGTON STATE ABOVE/ AND ITS TIMING. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW WEEKS...THIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE ERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT CRESTS THE WRN RIDGE. BEST STORM CHANCES APPEAR CENTERED ON SUN /DAY 7/ AND MON /DAY 8/ BUT SOME HINTS OF LEADING ADVECTION INDUCED SHRA/STORMS SAT AFTN/NIGHT BUT THIS A VERY LOW CHANCE RIGHT NOW. WHILE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GOOD COOLING JUST BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT RESEMBLING COOL PERIOD OF THIS PAST WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOG IS FORMING AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS VLIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH THE RISING SUN. EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. PRECIP IS NOT IN THE FORECAST WITH TAF SITES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ054-055- 063>065-072>074-078>082-088. KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ096>100. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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