Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220323 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1023 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing a few showers. Cold and dry weather will arrive Wednesday with high pressure. Dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of this week as the high shifts to the East Coast, while temperatures increase in the southerly flow behind the high. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Surface cold front bisecting Ohio will push east of ILN/s FA around midnight. A narrow band of pcpn is observed along and just behind the front in the favorable axis of low level convergence. Precipitation is very light and will be mainly rain will a mix with snow possible on the back side prior to ending. Clouds will scatter out from the west as sfc high pressure begins to nose into the region. Expect lows from the upper 20s west to the lower 30s east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A cold and dry airmass associated with high pressure extending from Northern Mexico to the Great Lakes will provide dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model sounding profiles show mostly sunny/mostly clear skies, with sky cover consisting of a few to sct cumulus on Wednesday that should decrease by late afternoon under further subsidence and drying of the airmass, followed by cirrus Wednesday night forming ahead of a weak short wave. Even with abundant sunshine, high temperatures rising only into the upper 30s will be about 12 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure extending across the area at the beginning of the period will move off to the east. Temperatures will rebound a bit, although probably not quite as much as guidance suggests. As the next system approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten. Gusty southerly winds will bring temperatures back closer to normal on Friday. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday. Moisture is rather limited, thus the chance of precipitation is minimal. There will likely be enough insolation during the day to offset initial cold air advection, so daytime readings should be similar to Friday. Colder air mass will move in for the beginning of next week when high pressure builds in. Temperatures will once again moderate late in the period as high pressure moves east and another cold front approaches. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level s/w over the western Great Lakes to dig southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight. Associated surface cold front currently pushing into nw Ohio to sweep east across the TAF sites this evening. Low level convergence will provide a chance of a shower with a period of MVFR ceilings for a few hours, especially across the northern TAF sites. A return to VFR is expected early Wednesday morning as surface high pressure builds in from the west. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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