Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231439 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1039 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid airmass will continue across the region today with additional thunderstorms expected. Thunderstorm chances will continue for Monday before cooler and drier conditions work into the region for Monday night. High pressure and dry conditions will then be in place through Wednesday before another system brings a return of precipitation to the area for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast dilemma for today will revolve around chances of pcpn (thunderstorms) and subsequent severe and flooding threat. Late this morning, a couple of MCVs are noted across southern Illinois and southern Indiana. The MCV over southern Indiana is responsible for the stratiform/embedded thunderstorm pcpn moving into our southwest CWFA. Also, some low level convergent flow is also causing some shower/thunderstorm activity across our northern CWFA. The southern shield of pcpn has been weakening with time as it moves into Kentucky/southeast Indiana. This will likely not result in flash flooding per se if it continues on its weakening trend across the remainder of the CWFA into early afternoon (as supported by the latest HRRR). However, given that some locations across our south have received between 4 and 7 inches of rain last night, felt it to be only logical/safe and extend the FFA across the southern tier until 8 pm (just in case some embedded storms hold across this region). For the remainder of the afternoon, thunderstorm chances should then focus on a weak boundary that should move southeast from our nw CWFA into our eastern/southern CWFA by evening. With high pwats, locally heavy rain threat will continue. At this time, severe threat appears to be isolated, and will ultimately depend on how much the region may recover with extensive cloud shield presently. Given the extensive cloud cover and pcpn moving in toward the early afternoon hours, have cut temperatures back to the lower/mid 80s. This only produces heat index values (when factoring the humidity) from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Scattered showers/thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the short term this evening. Most of this activity will move out of the region during the evening to first part of the overnight hours leaving the region dry for late tonight. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected for Monday as a cold front moves through the region. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After the front moves through on Monday expect drier and cooler conditions across the forecast area for Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will increase for Wednesday, however dry conditions will continue. Another system is expected to approach the region Wednesday night and move through the region Thursday into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this system. After this system moves through, cooler and drier conditions will again return to the region for the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some isolated shower activity will be around the TAF sites this morning. In addition there are some MVFR cigs around the region as well. This afternoon into this evening expect thunderstorms to develop and move through the region. After this activity exits the region cloud cover will begin to decrease some. With plenty of low level moisture fog will then be possible. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077>079- 081-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075- 080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman/Novak LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Novak

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