Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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029 FXUS61 KILN 261055 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 655 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at times into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... We are starting to see some spotty showers beginning to develop across primarily southern portions of our area early this morning. In continued southwesterly low level flow/WAA, it will be tough to rule out a few showers anywhere across our area through this morning, but the best chance appears to be across our south where the models are showing a little better isentropic lift and some lower pdefs. The models are also suggesting the possibility of some lower cloud development through daybreak with this possibly lingering through late morning into early afternoon. If this occurs, temperatures may be a little tricky today, but will bank on the combination of enough sun later today and the southwesterly flow to help push temperatures into the lower to mid 80s again this afternoon. This will lead to destabilization through the afternoon hours but we are again lacking much in the way of forcing. As a result, will generally just allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place across the southeastern United States. This will keep us in continued southwesterly flow, leading to seasonably warm temperatures through the short term period. It looks like the ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through the day on Friday. This should again help limit pcpn chances so will just hang on to a token 20 pop Friday into Friday night. Some weak short wave energy will lift north across the area on Saturday so will bump pops up a bit into lower chance category through the afternoon. Expect highs on Friday in the mid to possibly upper 80s with highs on Saturday mainly in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The presence of the continued troughing/negative anomalies in the cntl US will keep a weak swly mid layer flow directed into the Great Lakes...thus convectively produced/enhanced perturbations will be a constant threat to evolve east out of plains convective systems. These will inherently run into a height/flow pattern on the nwrn side of the developing sern CONUS trough that will not be conducive to organized/strong lift...and ridging over the Appalachians/Great Lakes will be reinforced. End result - there/s a lack of surface boundaries and/or appreciable stronger s/w troughs moving through the flow to produce more enhanced/higher predictability periods of vertical motion. Thus...precipitation chances will be driven in a very weakly forced manner under marginal flows and instabilities. Thus...there is no choice but to run 20-40% chances of showers/storms each day with the notion that many hours will be dry...and many locations could go several days without seeing rain. A true summertime pattern. It would seem that weak height falls centered later Sunday into Monday with the passage of a very subtle low-level boundary may afford the opportunity to introduce higher rain chances in coming forecasts...but forcing is so weak and soundings unimpressive enough from a shear/instby perspective that it gets tough to justify it. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An MVFR cloud deck has developed across Indiana and is spreading into Ohio. Extent of this MVFR deck isn`t as widespread as earlier (and current) model runs had suggested, but still expect at least a period of MVFR cigs this morning, especially over KDAY/KILN/KCVG/KLUK. Expect ceilings to lift towards early afternoon as daytime heating and mixing takes hold. With a moist airmass, daytime instability, and little in the way of forcing (aside from a mid-level disturbance this morning), cannot rule out some pop up spotty showers/thunderstorms today. Due to low predictability, however, have left rain out of most of the TAFs with the exception of KCVG/KLUK. A few hi-res model solutions show the complex of storms currently over western IL later diving southeast towards the Cincinnati area by early afternoon. While there is low confidence in whether they will hold together to affect the Cincinnati terminals, decided to go VCTS for a few hours there. Quiet conditions expected Thursday night with lingering cirrus. Winds will remain out of the SSW through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Binau AVIATION...Kurz

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