Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121207 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 707 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a drier airmass will build across the area Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate through mid week as a series of upper level disturbances bring an increasing chance of rain Wednesday into Thursday. A chance of precipitation will then linger into Friday as a cold front moves through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Snow has come to an end across the advisory area and therefore the winter weather advisory will expire at 7 AM. Slick spots will still be possible through the morning hours. Prev Discussion-> The narrow axis of precipitation will continue to shift east of our area over the next couple of hours. Calls to affected counties have indicated mainly ice pellets within this band, transitioning to snow on the backs side. Although the precipitation has ended across much of the advisory area, will go ahead and leave it up through 7 AM as roads may remain slick into the morning commute. Will also buffer a few of the fringe counties like Clermont, Pickaway and Fairfield Counties with an SPS as at least the far southern portions of those counties received a fair amount of ice and snow earlier this morning. Otherwise, drier air will continue to push into the region through the day today. This will allow for clearing skies and high temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the northwest to the upper 30s across the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will build across the southern Great Lakes tonight and then shift off to the area through the day on Tuesday. This will provide for dry conditions through the short term period. Temperatures could be a little tricky tonight with mostly clear skies and some possible light snow cover remaining across our southeast. However, it does look like the gradient may stay up enough, especially across the south, so we may not be able to totally decouple. For now, have ranged lows from the teens in the north the lower 20s across the south. Temperatures will then begin to moderate on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s across the south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term looks like it will be active with multiple rounds of precipitation possible and temperatures above normal. The GEFS, GEPS, and EPS have show good run to run continuity with heights well above normal. Tuesday night into Wednesday surface high pressure will pull east of the area with a sub-tropical ridge building in over the Gulf of Mexico. Also at this time an upper level low will break off from the flow off the southwest coast of California. A piece of energy from this low will head east towards Michigan. The sub-tropical jet will also strengthen with ILN falling in a LFQ. PWAT values also rise to above 1.00" Wednesday, meaning widespread cloud cover and precipitation looks likely Wednesday. Temperatures will also be quickly on the rise Wednesday with high temperatures in the upper 50s across northern Kentucky. Wednesday night the upper level jet pushes north with the shortwave exiting east. This will likely allow for a temporary break in the precipitation before another round moves into the area. Thursday the upper level low that was off the coast of California will get absorbed back into the flow with the sub-tropical jet rapidly strengthening. Another piece of upper level energy will dive southeast out of British Columbia allowing the upper level trough axis to center over the western United States. This will place ILN firmly in the divergent side of the trough axis. Widespread PV will also be advecting over the area at this time. PWATs at this time rise to over 1.20" (or near max values for this time of year). Warm cloud depth layers also are approaching 10kft. The mentioned above all points to the potential for heavy rain. It should be noted that there has been changes in the details of how the low ejects off the coast of southwestern California and the eventual location of where the sub-tropical jet sets up. Any changes could easily alter the placement of the axis of heavy rainfall. Late Thursday into early Friday enough PVA will move across for a surface low to ripple northeast along a surface cold front. The latest run of the NAEFS shows integrated WV transport of 2 to 4 SD above normal for this time of year with PWATs 3 to 4 SD above normal. Not surprisingly given these values the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all painting a strip of 2 to 3" across some portion of Ohio. Will go ahead and mention this in the HWO. Friday morning a surface cold front will push through the zones bringing an end to the precipitation and allowing for a pleasant Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s respectively. Sunday night into Monday the active pattern looks to return to the area with a potent upper level low across the western United States. This means widespread rainfall will again be possible Monday with temperatures warming well above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Drier air is moving in from the west and this is allowing for some partial clearing across the area. However, IR satellite imagery is showing a few patches of MVFR cigs drifting south across the region. These may affect the TAFs from time to time in the first couple hours of the period. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build in across the southern Great Lakes through tonight. This should allow for mainly clear skies and VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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