Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 111046 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 646 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AN A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH TOWARD EVENING. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN PCPN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AS IT DOES...GOOD WAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP INTO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL THEREFORE JUST HANG ON TO SOME VERY LOW END POPS AS SUPPOSE IT IS TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. WE WILL THEN GET WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUCKLES BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN GENERALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IN A GOOD WAA PATTERN...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DISTINCT SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS (SLIGHTLY MORE OBVIOUS ON THE 12Z ECMWF COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS) WILL DRIVE TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IS THE ONE THAT IS CERTAIN TO AFFECT THE ILN CWA. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED FROM 15Z MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 00Z THAT EVENING. AN OPEN SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW- END THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MODEL INDICATIONS OF THE SURFACE WAVE TIMING ON THE FRONT FAVORING THE ILN AREA TO BE IN A RELATIVE MIN OF QPF AMOUNTS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. FURTHERMORE...WHILE WINDS ARE RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE COLUMN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEIR UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION (PARALLEL TO THE FRONT) AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. THUNDER WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE WELL-DEFINED THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL PUT AN END TO THAT THREAT BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION (ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE) WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ILN CWA...BUT THE TREND WITH THE 12Z MODELS HAS BEEN TO HANG THIS OVER THE AREA A LITTLE LONGER INTO TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER 30S (AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN CWA) ON TUESDAY MORNING...A BRIEF MIXING OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED. BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING (NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON)...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE PSEUDO-DIURNAL. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN HALF WILL BEGIN COOLING OFF (AND FAIRLY QUICKLY) AFTER NOON. COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS POINTS THE WAY TOWARD A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT REALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARM ADVECTION ON THURSDAY (WITH A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY COMPONENT)...THOUGH ALOFT...TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN VFR LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER MIDDAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...LATTO

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