Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 052354 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 654 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will move into portions of the region for Wednesday. Another system will move into the area Friday night into Saturday bringing snow showers to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High clouds continue to progress east, gradually clearing out of the forecast area this evening. Meanwhile a batch of scattered to broken stratocumulus will quickly pass across northern counties. Expect clear skies overnight. Winds are already decreasing, although some gusts still persist. But the diminishing trend will continue into the evening and then steady out. Forecast lows look reasonable at this point.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level disturbance will move into northwestern portions of the forecast area on Wednesday before weakening. Focused any precipitation chances across this portion of the area. Although precipitation is expected to generally be in the form of snow as temperatures warm cannot rule out precipitation mixing with light rain. This precipitation will be short lived and dry conditions are expected by the evening hours and through the overnight Wednesday night. Winds will pick up again during the day on Wednesday with additional wind gusts. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large scale mid level trough will remain across the eastern part of the U.S./Canada into the weekend. It will be reinforced by pieces of s/wv energy digging through it. For Thursday, we should see some stratocumulus in post CAA regime. There could be a chance of flurries given the cloud layer will be intersecting DGZ along with diurnal instability. Have kept the forecast dry and we will reevaluate this with later forecasts. It will be cold with highs in the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. For Friday into Friday night, aforementioned s/wv energy will approach the region from the northwest. Clouds will increase with the chance of snow showers ramping up during the overnight hours. For Saturday into Saturday night, s/wv and its associated cold front will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Will continue with high chance PoPs for snow showers. This may needed to be ramped up, but would like to see more consistency and timing among the models. For Sunday, large scale mid level trough will shift east, allowing upper level flow to back. Dry conditions are expected. More energy is poised to affect the region by Monday into Monday night with another cold front. A chance of rain and/or snow showers will continue in the forecast. Lingering clouds and a threat for snow showers will continue into Tuesday in the post CAA regime. As for temperatures, below normal values are expected into the first part of the weekend. There will be a brief warm up (relatively speaking) on Monday ahead of another cold front, with below normal temperatures returning to the region once again by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered to broken stratocumulus will develop/move across the region on Wednesday as a disturbance passes through. Winds will decrease a bit and back to southwest overnight. They will increase again during the day with some gusts up to 25 kt and gradually veer to west. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...

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