Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201050 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 650 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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