Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 110604
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
104 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017
Breezy and wet conditions are expected this evening as a cold
front moves through. Unsettled conditions will continue off and on
through the week as multiple systems move through the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated to remove the wind advisory for the entire CWA.
Previous discussion >
Cold front with scattered storms moving through ILN/s CWA. Some of
the storms are mixing down strong to severe winds with gusts up to
65 mph possible. Strong winds continue for about 20 minutes after
the storms pass. The front and associated storms to clear ILN/s
eastern counties by midnight. Have extended the wind advisory to
06z and added all counties. Behind the front the pcpn ends...winds
diminish and skies partially clear late.
One round of rainfall is currently moving through the forecast
area. There will then be a very brief lull or decrease in
precipitation before additional rainfall moves in with the frontal
boundary. Strong low level winds will continue to mix down this
evening and therefore will continue the wind advisory across the
current location. Wind gusts outside of the advisory across
portions of the Scioto Valley will still be in the 35 to 45 mph
range. Expect both sustained and wind gusts to be near advisory
level in the advisory area.
Precipitation will taper off and winds will begin to subside for
the second half of the night. Cooler air will move in with the
passage of the frontal boundary.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another round of rainfall is expected to move from south to north
through the day on Wednesday with decent isentropic lift. There
will be a break in the precipitation later in the day especially
across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Another frontal
boundary will approach Wednesday night into Thursday, however it
will be slow moving and moisture will continue to move into the
region. Due to this precipitation chances will be higher across
northwestern portions of the forecast area until the frontal
boundary pushes through Thursday into Thursday evening. There is
some instability present during the day on Thursday and therefore
have some isolated thunderstorm mention in the forecast. In
advance of the cold front warm and breezy conditions will be
Cooler air will work into the region Thursday night. Another round
of moisture will push northwards towards the end of the short
term. Model soundings indicate that a mix of precipitation
including sleet and freezing rain will be possible for a time late
Thursday night into Friday morning.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary extending along a westerly flow aloft will
provide the focus for precipitation development through much of the
long term. As the boundary forms to the southwest on Friday, rain
may occur across the southern half of the FA, changing to snow
Friday night as the boundary begins to shift northward. Road
temperatures should be above freezing which would limit the effects
on travel. Rain chances will stretch over the entire area on
Saturday when the boundary is forecast to be over Ohio. Precip may
end Sunday when the boundary is shown to sag southward in response
to short wave energy that will tilt the upper flow to northwest,
while surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Rain may
then return on Monday and Tuesday, though the latest ECMWF guidance
points to a drier solution as opposed to model blends that show
Near normal mid winter highs mainly in the mid and upper 30s are
indicated for Friday and Saturday when an easterly low level flow
will carry cool air. Much warmer than normal temperatures return by
Monday and Tuesday when highs may reach the 50s most locations.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak surface ridging will move into the region through sunrise.
Skies will be mostly clear and winds will back from west to south.
For today, VFR conditions will be short lived. In a west/southwest
flow aloft, a low level jet associated with an embedded
disturbance will result in warm, moist ascent which will
develop/spread showers into the region this afternoon. It looks
like better instability remains to the west over Illinois and
Indiana, so will not mention thunder at this time. Models concur
that ceilings will lower into the IFR category with MVFR
visibilities in showers. In addition, as low pressure approaches
the western Great Lakes, the pressure gradient will tighten,
allowing winds to increase from the south. Winds will also become
gusty up to 25 knots.
Showers will taper off late this afternoon and evening from
southwest to northeast. Ceilings in the MVFR/IFR category will
remain. Low level jet will increase in speed, which poses another
LLWS threat. This has been placed in the terminals. South winds
will remain stiff and gusty.
For tonight, another embedded disturbance along with low level
moist, convergent flow will spread showers back into the region
from the west/southwest. Best instability appears to remain
northwest of the terminals, so will continue without the mention
of thunder at this time.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities likely Thursday
into Thursday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are
possible at times Friday through Sunday.
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