Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240023 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 723 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING STRONG WINDS...SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST TO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW...SHOWERS WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE A CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REQUIRE CATEGORICAL POPS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD WITH LOWS AROUND 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVELING NORTH FROM KENTUCKY TO THE INDIANA- OHIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...STRONGER GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN WITH SHOWERS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BRISK WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST LEAVING A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE. ONCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND CHANGE RESIDUAL PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY LEAVE A DUSTING BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING IN A COOL WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH RESPECT TO THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE MANY VARIABLES INVOLVED. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS AROUND 60 ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD KEEP READINGS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE FORECAST IN THE SEASONABLE AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY WILL PERMIT WARM AIR TO FUNNEL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BY SATURDAY EVENING IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. GFS PUSHES AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH TO THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN LINGER THE FRONT NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR IN NW CWA. THEY ALSO KEEP PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS IN DIRECT OPPOSITION TO GFS. OTHER MODELLERS SEEM TO JUST BLEND OPPOSING SOLUTIONS TO COME TO MIDDLE GROUND. THIS METHOD JUST DOES NOT WORK AS A VIABLE WAY TO EVOLVE A LONGER RANGE FORECAST. TRIED TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT KNOW THAT THE LONG RANGE WAS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY. FOR AS OFF AS THE SURFACE FIELDS ARE IN THE MODELS...H5 AND LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND SW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EURO DEEPENS THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST FOR THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND HELP USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AREA OF PVA WILL PUSH NORTH UP THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING...TAKING AREA OF SHOWERS WITH IT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAFS WILL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY THESE STEADIER SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE SOME LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS AFFECTING KDAY AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT NORTH...EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO MIX UP A LITTLE. BY 04-05Z...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SO ONLY CARRIED A VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IFR TO MVFR. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AND SURGE OF SHOWERS AROUND 12Z AS SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE S. AS SFC LIFTS TO THE N OF THE TAFS BY 18-21Z WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30KTS AND COULD VERY WELL BE 40+ KTS. OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ060-061- 070>072-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...SITES

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