Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 110604 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 104 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy and wet conditions are expected this evening as a cold front moves through. Unsettled conditions will continue off and on through the week as multiple systems move through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Updated to remove the wind advisory for the entire CWA. Previous discussion > Cold front with scattered storms moving through ILN/s CWA. Some of the storms are mixing down strong to severe winds with gusts up to 65 mph possible. Strong winds continue for about 20 minutes after the storms pass. The front and associated storms to clear ILN/s eastern counties by midnight. Have extended the wind advisory to 06z and added all counties. Behind the front the pcpn ends...winds diminish and skies partially clear late. Previous Discussion... One round of rainfall is currently moving through the forecast area. There will then be a very brief lull or decrease in precipitation before additional rainfall moves in with the frontal boundary. Strong low level winds will continue to mix down this evening and therefore will continue the wind advisory across the current location. Wind gusts outside of the advisory across portions of the Scioto Valley will still be in the 35 to 45 mph range. Expect both sustained and wind gusts to be near advisory level in the advisory area. Precipitation will taper off and winds will begin to subside for the second half of the night. Cooler air will move in with the passage of the frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Another round of rainfall is expected to move from south to north through the day on Wednesday with decent isentropic lift. There will be a break in the precipitation later in the day especially across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Another frontal boundary will approach Wednesday night into Thursday, however it will be slow moving and moisture will continue to move into the region. Due to this precipitation chances will be higher across northwestern portions of the forecast area until the frontal boundary pushes through Thursday into Thursday evening. There is some instability present during the day on Thursday and therefore have some isolated thunderstorm mention in the forecast. In advance of the cold front warm and breezy conditions will be present. Cooler air will work into the region Thursday night. Another round of moisture will push northwards towards the end of the short term. Model soundings indicate that a mix of precipitation including sleet and freezing rain will be possible for a time late Thursday night into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary extending along a westerly flow aloft will provide the focus for precipitation development through much of the long term. As the boundary forms to the southwest on Friday, rain may occur across the southern half of the FA, changing to snow Friday night as the boundary begins to shift northward. Road temperatures should be above freezing which would limit the effects on travel. Rain chances will stretch over the entire area on Saturday when the boundary is forecast to be over Ohio. Precip may end Sunday when the boundary is shown to sag southward in response to short wave energy that will tilt the upper flow to northwest, while surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Rain may then return on Monday and Tuesday, though the latest ECMWF guidance points to a drier solution as opposed to model blends that show persistent precip. Near normal mid winter highs mainly in the mid and upper 30s are indicated for Friday and Saturday when an easterly low level flow will carry cool air. Much warmer than normal temperatures return by Monday and Tuesday when highs may reach the 50s most locations. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak surface ridging will move into the region through sunrise. Skies will be mostly clear and winds will back from west to south. For today, VFR conditions will be short lived. In a west/southwest flow aloft, a low level jet associated with an embedded disturbance will result in warm, moist ascent which will develop/spread showers into the region this afternoon. It looks like better instability remains to the west over Illinois and Indiana, so will not mention thunder at this time. Models concur that ceilings will lower into the IFR category with MVFR visibilities in showers. In addition, as low pressure approaches the western Great Lakes, the pressure gradient will tighten, allowing winds to increase from the south. Winds will also become gusty up to 25 knots. Showers will taper off late this afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast. Ceilings in the MVFR/IFR category will remain. Low level jet will increase in speed, which poses another LLWS threat. This has been placed in the terminals. South winds will remain stiff and gusty. For tonight, another embedded disturbance along with low level moist, convergent flow will spread showers back into the region from the west/southwest. Best instability appears to remain northwest of the terminals, so will continue without the mention of thunder at this time. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities likely Thursday into Thursday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Friday through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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