Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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718 FXUS61 KILN 240222 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1022 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region over the next couple of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing the next chance for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Upper level low over the TN VLY to drift slowly south with clouds and pcpn rotating around this feature. Thick shield of high level clouds overspread ILN/s area this afternoon. ILN 00z sounding shows dry air in the low levels. Deformation zone evident on radar marking the northern extent of pcpn over ne KY and se OH. This pcpn is having a difficult time advancing into the dry air. Have continued a very low pop chance of a shower in over ILN/s southeast counties, associated with surface inverted trof. Expect some thinning of the high level clouds, especially over the northwest counties. Expect lows to range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low will continue to shift off to the southeast on Monday to just off the southeast coast through Monday night. It looks like a weak inverted trough may hang back across the Tennessee Valley possibly extending up toward the mid Ohio Valley. This will allow for the low level flow to become more east southeasterly through the day on Monday, leading to some 850 mb moisture advection up into at least our southern areas. This will likely lead to an increase in some lower level clouds as we progress through the day. Highs on Monday will be somewhat dependent on the amount of cloudiness, but generally expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Tuesday and Wednesday, the area will be under a dry southerly flow between slow moving areas of low pressure located to the east and west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night and Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through from the west. Western locations should see more a favorable environment for precip, with eastern sites having lower pops as the front moves into less conducive conditions aloft. The front may then stall south of the Ohio River Friday, before lifting back toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist in the moisture, instability, and convergence associated with the front. Warm temperatures will be the rule in a regime featuring above normal geopotential heights, though readings will vary somewhat with respect to frontal position. Highs in the mid 70s Tuesday will increase to the low 80s Wednesday under warm advection ahead of the cold front. A retreat back to the low 70s Thursday due to frontal passage will be followed by a rebound back to around 80 by next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period. Elongated upper low over the TN VLY to continue to drift slowly south through Monday. Thick cirrus shield across the TAF sites will thin out late tonight. Low level moisture will begin to increase Monday afternoon as low level flow veers to the southeast. Expect these clouds to be around 5000 feet. Northeast winds at 10 kts or less will become east Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs will be possible on Thursday along with a chance of thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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