Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121952 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 352 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity tonight. High pressure will allow for dry conditions for Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move through on Sunday bringing with it showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Frontal boundary is slowly pushing northward across the forecast area. North of this boundary temperatures are in the 50s with some patchy fog. South of it temperatures have been able to rise into the 60s. There is a wedge of clear to mostly clear skies across eastern Kentucky and northward into WV. This corresponds with an area of better WAA. This clearing or decrease in clouds is approaching southeastern portions of the forecast area. Do not expect it to be quite as pronounced with the loss of daytime heating, however do time in an area of less cloud cover primarily across eastern and southern portions of the forecast area. Models are in some agreement on the placement of this occurring. Expect where some clearing occurs after dark for fog to develop as there is still low level moisture present. In addition patchy fog will be possible at times across the remainder of the area overnight even if clouds persist due to the low level moisture. Not many observations are reporting drizzle anymore. Cigs are rising and the depth of the cloud layer has decreased. With this in mind gradually decrease the mention of light patchy drizzle this evening. Not expecting much of a drop of temperatures overnight with lows in the 50s. Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Clouds will decrease during the day on Friday and dry conditions are expected through the short term. WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s across the region. Went close to guidance for low temperatures Friday night with lows in the low to middle 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The mid level ridge across the southeastern United States will break down through the weekend as short wave energy moves across the Great Lakes region. This will help push a cold front through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. The 12Z models have continued to trend faster with this feature with the GFS still the fastest. Based on this, have made some forward adjustments to the onset of pcpn late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. With this faster timing, the instability also looks to be more limited so will only include a slight chance of some embedded thunder. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to possibly lower 80s. Temperatures on Sunday will depend on the exact timing of the front but given the faster trends, will make some downward adjustments to temperatures on Sunday, especially across the northwest. A cooler and drier airmass will settle into the area behind the front for the first part of the upcoming work week. Highs on Monday will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The mid and upper flow will transition back to zonal and then weak ridging through mid week. This will allow for a gradual moderating trend. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s with upper 60s to possibly lower 70s by Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some patchy drizzle will be around this afternoon, however due to the isolated nature of the drizzle did not include in the TAFs at this time. Cigs are quite variable across the region. Generally expect some minor improvements in cigs this afternoon and early evening before cigs lower some again. Visibilities will also be reduced at times overnight with fog. Conditions will improve during the day on Friday. Winds will be light and less than 10 knots. OUTLOOK.. MVFR conditions possible Sunday in showers/thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Novak

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