Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251807 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 207 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TODAY BRINGING BREEZY BUT WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING CONVECTION HAS LIFTED QUICKLY NE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE ERN COUNTIES. THEY SHOULD BE GONE BY 11 AM. TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW MUCH SUN THERE WILL BE. A SMALL DRY SLOT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FA ATTM...WITH LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS INDIANA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DRIFT A LITTLE EAST KEEPING THE WRN COUNTIES CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE FA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WAA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS WILL COOL AS YOU HEAD NORTH ONLY MAKING AROUND 60S IN THE NW COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LULL IN FORCING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TO START TONIGHT. THAT WILL CHANGE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE MOISTURE WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT LYING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT PRESENT AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DID PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THE COLD FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE HELD UP BY A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE CONTAINED BY THE COLDER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY DECREASING TO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS OHIO CLOUDS WILL ERODE. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY COLD. 850 TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -15 DEGREES C. BRINGING THIS TEMPERATURE DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES F. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX VALUES. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE WITH THE GFS STRENGTHENING THE SHORTWAVE AND DIVING IT SOUTH. THE EURO KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. EITHER WAY THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CDFNT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AND IS IN THE VICINITY OF I-71 AT TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CIGS THAT WAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO LATE AFTN. AT KDAY THE MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BEFORE ALSO SCATTERING OUT BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LAY DOWN AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. TAFS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. H5 ENERGY LIFTING N AHEAD OF A H5 TROF WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO PUSH RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE SRN TAFS AROUND 06Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR AS THIS OCCURS. THE PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAFS BY 09Z. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE SRN TAFS BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCTS THUNDER AT CVG/LUK/ILN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO IFR BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AS SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. AS SFC LOW WORKS OFF TO THE E AFT 12Z...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE RAIN MIGHT MIX WITH SNOW AT KDAY. THINK THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE QUICK SO LEFT THE PCPN AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...SITES

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