Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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457 FXUS61 KILN 030550 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1250 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR ON BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. DESPITE FAIRLY PALTRY INSTABILITY...WE HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SHOWERS...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. THE QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WHAT AFFECT THIS CURRENT ONGOING PCPN WILL HAVE ON THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE PUSHED UP INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS SO BETWEEN THIS AND THE CONTINUED STRONG DYNAMICS...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER ACTIVITY PERSIST. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND ONLY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE BIGGER THREAT MAY END UP BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING SET A RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST PW ON THIS DATE...1.1 INCHES. ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RAIN...SO THINK WE ARE OKAY WITH OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING SAID...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WINDS NEVER SHIFT MORE THAN SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING RAIN OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE THROUGH OR ALMOST THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND HOCKING HILLS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL DURING THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED STRONG SURFACE WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHUNTING THE ELONGATED VORT MAXIMA WILL USHER IN THE COLDER AIR FROM ALOFT AND HELP SHIFT WINDS WEST. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MAY INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR AND MIX SOME SNOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TOWARDS SUNSET. THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY THREAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE MOISTURE DECREASES AND LIFT SOURCE RACES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES ON THURSDAY TO JUST A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF OF THEIR MORNING LOW...IF THERE ARE ANY RECOVERIES AT ALL. MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURS AND THURS NIGHT AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MONDAY AND ARCTIC TYPE AIR. PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE REGIME. WEAK FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CHANGE OF AIR. WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE S/W AND COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH FALLING TEMPS. COLDEST AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN THIS REGIME WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH COLD AIR AND SNOW. HAVE GONE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DEEP SFC LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AND CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THRU 09Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CIGS WILL DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY AND THEN LINGER THRU THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN IN DRY SLOT. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPING TODAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS DURG THE AFTN. LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...AR

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