Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151045 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 645 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED WEST OF I-75 AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE...THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WILL FALL OUT OF THIS BAND THIS MORNING AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I-71...WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP FALL SNOW. AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVELY LESSER PROPORTION OF THEIR PRECIP FALL AS SNOW...DUE TO A LAG IN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME OF THE SNOWFALL WILL ULTIMATELY BE LOST AS IT REACHES THE SURFACE DUE TO RECENT WARMER TEMPERATURES CAUSING MELTING AS IT MEETS SURFACE RADIATION. THIS COMPLICATES THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION DUE TO THIS MELTING ON THE GROUND. ELEVATED SURFACES MAY BE MORE IMMUNE TO THIS MELTING. AM FORECASTING 1 TO 2 INCHES TO STICK TO THE SURFACES FROM THE DAYTON AREA EAST TO COLUMBUS AND POINTS NORTHWARD. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL KEEP COLD ADVECTION AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUN BEGINNING TO SHOW LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN JUST WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. IN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND SUPPOSE A FEW OF THESE COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092- 094-095. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075- 080. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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