Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221727 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 127 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak cold front with limited moisture will drop south from the Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by another high building into the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Will continue to see some higher level clouds drifting down across the ridge from time to time today. Still expect mostly sunny skies though and this should allow for another warm day across the region. Temperatures will be similar to what we saw on Wednesday with highs today mainly in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes tonight into Friday, interacting with some weak ripples of midlevel energy in northwest flow aloft. PWATs will increase from around 1" tonight to around 1.5" by Saturday. This may be enough moisture to squeeze out some isolated showers/storms across northern Ohio late Friday into Saturday, but instability will be meager. Thus, models continue to favor a dry frontal passage across ILN`s forecast area, but have bumped up cloud cover in the north. The front will usher in a slightly drier and cooler airmass for the weekend, especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Saturday and Sunday`s highs will range from near 80 in the north to upper 80s south. A mid level ridge axis will propagate eastward across the region on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge significantly by Monday. The GFS develops a highly amplified upper trough/ridge pattern over the central US while the 22.00Z ECMWF has become less amplified and much more progressive than its 21.12Z run. Despite the model differences, weak isentropic lift out ahead of a cold front looks to provide a chance of showers and storms on Monday. A better chance of showers and storms will accompany the cold front as it pushes through the region, but timing of fropa remains uncertain due to model differences. The GFS is a much slower and wetter solution than the ECMWF, but have maintained chance PoPs until models come into better agreement. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change in the weather pattern as high pressure remains across the forecast area. Some cirrus blowoff from upstream convection will continue to drift into the area. Fog should develop again tonight at LUK. Extent of fog is problematic, thus will continue with current fcst of 1/2 mile vsby. Brief light fog may occur at CVG near sunrise but not enough to include for now. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Kurz AVIATION...Padgett

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