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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 141041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE AND THE OHIO
RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR RAIN DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING WILL LET SURFACE FLOW TURN SOUTH AND WARM
AIR TO RETURN TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. CLOUD COVER OVER THE
INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES IN CENTRAL OHIO TO ONLY REACH LOWER 70S. IN
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI...READINGS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS DUE TO A LONGER TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH
WINDS PULL IN WARMER AIR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE CWA IN A W-E
ORIENTATION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR THE BETTER PART OF THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN OVER NORTHERN CWA COULD START AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THAN ONE THAT WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN HAMPERS HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD BAND OF MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
STALL OUT IN AN  E-W ORIENTATION PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES. SOME OF THE DETAILS...
SUCH AS EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND WHEN IT OSCILLATES
NORTH AND SOUTH HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN DUE TO SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLNS.

HAVE LOOKED FOR CONTINUITY AND FAVOR A CONSENSUS SOLN. LATEST
EVIDENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACRS CENTRAL OHIO
ON THURSDAY. AN EMBEDDED SRN S/W MOVING THRU THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INSTBY SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS HERE INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THURSDAYS HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID AND UPR 70S.

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG A LITTLE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACRS THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL ALLOW POPS TO DIMINISH ACRS THE FAR
NORTH AND DECREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE IN THE SOUTH.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE SOUTH EARLY AND THEN END ALL POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO NUDGE A LTL NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC DURG THE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS A LTL WARMER ON SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
SUNDAY AND THE UPR MS VLY MONDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF
ILN FA WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.

WILL ALLOW CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS HAD OF THE DEEP PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP HAVE TEMPS BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP AND MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AC THAT
WAS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE TAFS TODAY WILL MOVE E QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO HAVE AC CIGS AT THE TAFS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH CVG/LUK SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z. LOOKS LIKE HE AC WILL
LINGER PAST 18Z AT CMH/LCK.

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.


WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY 00Z AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES