Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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050 FXUS61 KILN 101804 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 104 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12 TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HICKMAN

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