Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 070900 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 400 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers and flurries will be possible this morning and today as an upper level disturbance traverses the region. High pressure and chilly weather on Friday will be followed by a cold front with accumulating snow for Saturday. Cold temperatures are forecast to persist on Sunday in the northwest flow behind the front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds are starting to move in from the west this morning as PV stretches across the region. A cold front can also be seen on low light this morning moving southeast through Indiana and Illinois. Even colder air exists behind this front with temperatures in northwestern Illinois only in the mid teens. Light returns can also be seen on the radar out in Illinois and Indiana thanks to the upper level disturbance. There have been a few isolated light snow reports, but the reports are admittedly sparse. Looking at 500 mb reveals a weak jet streak is forecast develop and eject northeast towards Cleveland this morning. This would place the ILN forecast area into a weak RRQ. The latest CMC and GFS indicate weak QPF forming this morning in response to the upper level support. Forecast soundings on the GFS show about a 200 mb depth of saturation while the NAM only has around ~100 mb saturated layer. Not surprisingly the less robust moister on the NAM does not allow any QPF to form. With the returns out west and the weak jet streak forecast to form, the slight chance PoPs for this morning look good. Also this morning, the surface cold front currently out in Illinois and Indiana will begin to enter our western zones. The frontal passage itself looks to remain dry as surface convergence remains weak and moisture appears lacking. The surface cold front will then clear our forecast zones this evening with much colder air behind it. 850 mb temperatures behind the front will fall to around 12 degrees C below zero with 1000/850 thicknesses only at 1275 m. High temperatures across our northwestern zones will likely only be in the upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s towards Portsmouth, OH. Behind the front clouds will move in with some wind gusts possible. Today will feel cold with wind chills in the lower 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Tonight the heart of the cold air will move over the area and with skies forecast to clear out low temperatures in the teens looks likely. Early Friday morning late Thursday evening wind chills will drop close to 10 degrees F across our northern zones until winds slowly relax. During the day Friday the shortwave will pull east of the area allowing a slight recovery in low level thermal profiles. Highs in the low to mid 30s can be expected with mostly clear skies.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Short wave energy will pivot down across the Ohio Valley later Friday night and through the day on Saturday. The models have trended a bit weaker with this feature and a little farther north with the surface wave, taking it across the southern Great Lakes. This should still allow for snow to spread in from the northwest late Friday night and then rotate across our area through the day on Saturday. However, the best chance for snow will be across our north where will go with high likely to categorical pops by Saturday morning. Farther south, will continue to go with likely pops for snow as it still seems some measurable pcpn is likely, but will trim back amounts somewhat. Will generally go with 1 to 2 inches through Saturday along and north of I-70 and then scale back to an inch or less for points to the south. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the lower 30s. The more widespread snow will taper off through Saturday afternoon as the short wave pushes east but we will get into a fetch off of Lake Michigan for period of time which may maintain some snow shower activity into Saturday evening across parts of our area. Weak ridging will push quickly east across the area Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the next short wave that will move across the area Monday in Monday night. Ahead of this, the low level flow will back some as we head into Monday, leading to some WAA. This will help push highs on Monday into the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the short wave moves in, pcpn will overspread our area Monday into Monday night. Pcpn may start off as a rain/snow mix or all rain across the south on Monday. However, good CAA will spread back in from the northwest later Monday afternoon and into Monday night, allowing for pcpn to change over to all snow before tapering off later Monday night. This colder airmass will then remain in place through at least mid week with highs both Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s. In northwest flow aloft, it looks like some weak short waves may drop down across the region at times so will hang on to some lower end pops for snow showers through the remainder of the long term period.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions expected through the TAF issuance today. Winds are currently out of the WSW as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Ahead of the front a weak upper level disturbance will cross the area with the RAP, NMM, GFS, and ECMWF showing some light snow this morning into late afternoon. Looking at 500 mb reveals a weak jet streak moving across northern Ohio, putting the area into a weak RRQ. Saturation in the forecast soundings remains questionable though, so have left mention as a VCSH. As of current thinking it looks like KDAY will be to far west so have removed the VCSH here. The surface cold front will then cross the TAF sites around 18z this afternoon. Behind the front, a borderline MVFR/VFR deck will be likely. The deck should be transient though and might end up staying VFR. Also behind the front some wind gusts up to 20 kts will be possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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