Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231727 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 127 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY....BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PUSHING THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 PM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ALMOST THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW FREEZING (EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE SURFACE). THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS SNOW WITH RAIN MIXING IN. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO REMAIN AROUND AND NORTH OF I-70 AND TO BE IN THE 1" TO 2" RANGE. RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO MELT ON MOST ROADWAYS...HOWEVER ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. PREVIOUS.. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS DROPPING SE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY THIS MORNING AND INTO OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. THIS S/W SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL WEAKEN AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND SNOW. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTN. LEADING EDGE SNOW INTO CHICAGO ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. SYNOPTIC MODEL SOLNS ARE TOO SLOW WITH THIS INITIAL AXIS. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ARW/NMM FOR START TIME INTO W CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. BEST LIFT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. REGARDING QPF...THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH LLJ AND THEREFORE HAS HIGHEST QPF. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLN WHICH YIELDS UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS IS AN INCREASE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO AND SPS PRODUCTS. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-70. FURTHER SOUTH THERMAL FIELDS WILL YIELD MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NW TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL END THIS EVENING. EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN PCPN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS STAYING AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NW TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. FLOW WILL TRANSITION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH PCPN DEVELOPING NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER TN VLY. HAVE LIMITED PCPN TO THE SW AND KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH. NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W TO LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. WARM FRONT TO PIVOT NORTH THRU ILN/S FA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. AS INITIAL S/W LIFTS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES A WEAKENING FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. HAVE BEST POPS ACRS THE WEST AND WITH LIMITED INSTBY HAVE CONTD TO MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT A WARM UP TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 70 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THE LOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDING IN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BAND OF SNOW WITH SOME REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED IN IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. CAUSE OF THE SNOW IF FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SNOW MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES SHORTLY AND AS THE SNOW MOVES IN TO SLOWLY FALL APART. KDAY: SNOW STARTING AROUND 3 PM WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IF HEAVIER SNOW SETS UP. KCVG/ KLUK: THESE SITES ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE A RAIN/ SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. KCMH/ KLCK: SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 5 OR 6 PM AND WILL BE FALLING APART AS IT HEADS EAST. SOME SNOW COULD BE HEAVY IF BANDS HOLD TOGETHER SLIGHTLY LONGER. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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