Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 158 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION BY THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE FORCING. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SAG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS POINT TO THE WARMEST WEATHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGHER READINGS TENDING TO BE IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL AFFECT THE KCVG...KLUK AND KILN TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. KDAY IS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS AT KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME STORMS GET THIS FAR EAST BUT WILL AMEND THESE TAFS IF NECESSARY. WITH RECENT RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY FORM. BEST CHANCE IS WHERE IT WILL RAIN THE MOST AND HAVE PLACED SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN. STORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF KCMH/KLCK BY 12Z WHILE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR ERN REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR KCMH/KLCK BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE TERMINALS DRY. REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONVECTION FREE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FRONT LAYS OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TRIES TO KICK IN. HAVE PLACED A VCTS/CB AT THE KCVG 30 HOUR TERMINAL FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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