Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291825 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE. TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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