Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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134 FXUS61 KILN 230832 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 332 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An extremely moist airmass will remain over the region into Saturday night. Multiple weather disturbances riding along a slow moving front will produce periods of heavy rainfall. Dry weather is expected with the arrival of high pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are forecast to persist through the period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Broad southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves is bringing another round of rain to the region early this morning. Models bring the highest PoPs across the region during the morning hours, before shunting the pcpn off to the east and southeast during the afternoon with the passage of a cold front. It looks like there will be some elevated instability across the south today, so kept a chance of thunderstorms. Current Flood Watch footprint looks good as the heaviest QPF looks like it will fall across the se half of the fa. QPF amounts of around a inch are possible with today shot of rain. Highs today will range from the upper 50s in West Central Ohio to around 70 in the Lower Scioto Valley and ne KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight the cdfnt will drop into KY before stalling. This should bring a break in the precipitation across the north, with low chances in the south. The boundary will linger around the Ohio River on Saturday as a warm front as it waits for more mid level energy to kick out Saturday night. Rain should overrun the area on Saturday, so kept the 100 PoPs. There will be a big range in highs for Saturday as the extreme northern counties will see highs around 50, while the nrn Kentucky counties will see highs in the 60s. H5 s/w will kick out of the Rockies Saturday night, pushing a surface low into the western Great Lakes, while a cold front whips up the Ohio Valley. Large area of heavy rain will lift across the region and will fall on already saturday grounds and rivers which will be running high or are already in flood. There could be a chance for some severe thunderstorms Saturday night with such a dynamic atmosphere. The front is expected to be pushing through the region Sunday morning, bringing and end to the pcpn. Highs on Sunday will be early highs with temperatures falling in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather from Sunday night into the middle of next week. Temperatures to turn cooler but still above normal with highs Monday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Temperatures Tuesday look to be around 10 degrees above normal, with highs from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Model solution differences develop at mid week regarding how fast moisture returns on the backside of retreating surface high pressure. Will limit pops low chance Wednesday afternoon south and then across the entire FA Thursday. Mild temperatures to continue with highs in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR cigs/vsbys will be found over much of the region for the next few hours. A shot of rain will work in from the southwest before daybreak and last for a few hours. This is associated with the passage of a low level jet towards daybreak. A brief inclusion of LLWS may be necessary at CVG/LUK as it passes but the highest wind speeds will be above the 2kft threshold. Likewise, given the strong dynamics present there may be significant slant-wise convection to produce thunder. Will be monitoring both of these potentials upstream and amend if they present themselves. Rain will be an early shot and see some passing showers through the early afternoon. Focus for showers then shifts southeast and away from the TAF sites, but the proximity of the axis of good rainfall is too close to not include VCSH for the bulk of the daylight hours today. Later in the evening, models are hinting that cigs may improve if the lower thousand feet could lose its broken characteristic. A large dry area noted above 1kft would bring VFR conditions if the low stratus scatters out. CVG should see a return to IFR late in their 30 hour TAF as the next batch of rain overspreads the region in the predawn hours Saturday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings may linger Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ053>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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