Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300552 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 152 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE S/W WILL PUSH A CDFNT TOWARDS THE FA. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MORNING COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A INCREASING CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE W CNTL OHIO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CDFNT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA. CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS A LITTLE AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO PCPN COULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE MAIN H5 S/W THRU ON SUNDAY. THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A LITTLE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ON SUNDAY AS IT PRODUCES A QPF BULLS-EYE. PCPN SHOULD COME TO END AS LOW PULLS AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S NW OF I-71...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. IN MOIST FLOW...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS IN BR AT KLUK...OTHERWISE VFR THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUED VCTS IN TAFS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MID TO LATE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO A FRONT/LOW PRESSURE...BUT CHANCES MAY START TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE DAY/CVG TERMINALS CLOSE TO 06Z. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...BPP

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