Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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900 FXUS61 KILN 212011 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 411 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances in the upper flow will bring a chance of thunderstorms to northern Ohio today. A cold front will bring more organized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Convection has developed across portions of West Central Ohio as expected. Some of the convection in central Indiana is expected to work into the se IN counties late this afternoon, before it dissipates. After the afternoon convection ends, expect the fa to be dry for the rest of the night as the forcing shifts to the nw of the region. Lows tonight will remain warm and muggy dropping only in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Strong H5 s/w will be swinging through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Line of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to drop into the region 15-18Z. Shear of 35-40 kts and CAPE around 700 J/kg will support strong to severe thunderstorms. Timed the convection through the region in the after along what appears to be a pre-frontal trough. With the region in slight risk will keep mention in the HWO of possible severe weather. There could be a secondary line of showers that is lingering across the south in the evening. After that moves south, Tuesday night should be dry. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A very quiet weather pattern will be in place for most of the long term period. High pressure and dry conditions will start out the long term on Wednesday. With CAA on Wednesday expect an extensive cu field to develop. A weak upper level disturbance will work into northeastern portions of the forecast area on Thursday allowing for a few showers. In addition expect another day of cu to develop with CAA. Dry conditions return for Friday and Saturday with high pressure. There are some model differences on how quickly precipitation begins to work into the region with the next system, however trends have been to slow down the precipitation. Due to this have Sunday daytime dry and begin to bring precipitation chances into the forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Decreased temperatures slightly from the superblend Wednesday through Saturday. High temperatures during this time will generally be in the 70s. Lows will typically be in the 50s, however some isolated upper 40s will be possible across northern portions of the region Thursday night and Friday night. Temperatures will be slightly warmer for Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PoP up convection this afternoon associated with H5 vort maxs in the wly flow, is expected to stay north and west of the tafs, leaving VFR conditions from scattered cu/cb and blow off cirrus. Convection is forecast to quickly die with sunset, leaving skies mostly clear overnight. 12Z models are slower with line of convection that is forecast to develop ahead of advancing cold front. The consensus of the models is to delay the convection into the tafs until after 18Z, there only 30 hour CVG tafs has a mention of TSRA. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites

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