Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280822 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM THE CONVECTION OUT OVER THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS 60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE <5KT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CI CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO A DECK AROUND 15KFT AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...FRANKS

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