Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 120949 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 449 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty west northwest winds moving across the Great Lakes will bring snow showers to the region today into this evening. An area of low pressure will track across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build in Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Water vapor imagery shows robust short wave near the southern tip of Lake Michigan. This will swing across the area today. Snow showers are along and ahead of the short wave and will spread across the forecast area this morning. But first radar and surface observations indicate that drizzle has developed out ahead of the snow showers. Temperatures have been slow to cool, so most locations are at or above freezing where drizzle is possible. Looks like this will be rather transient as the leading edge of the snow showers is progressing southeast quickly. Lake band is starting to get organized in southwest Michigan. This will extend into the forecast area and then gradually pivot northeast. Snow squall parameter continues to suggest a potential for snow squalls to occur, especially this afternoon. Since the band is not expected to remain in one location for too long of a time, snow accumulations are not expected to get too significant in the forecast area with a couple of inches possible north of Dayton. Temperatures will fall through the morning and then become nearly steady in the 20s in the afternoon. Gusty west northwest winds will occur through the day and as temperatures drop, this will allow wind chill to range from the single digits to the mid teens this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The snow band off of Lake Michigan will be weakening through the evening as winds back and gradually diminish. Clouds will erode from the southwest, although any clearing in far northern counties will likely be short-lived as clouds ahead of the next system will already be encroaching by daybreak Wednesday. The next system in northwest flow will approach on Wednesday. Precipitation will break out ahead of low pressure that will be just northwest of the forecast area by the end of the day. Better chance of precipitation will be across the northern counties in the afternoon with the possibility of up to an inch of accumulation north of I-70 during the daylight hours. Forecast temperatures are slightly below guidance. Even with decreasing winds Tuesday night, wind chill will be in the single digits area wide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An area of low pressure will move across northern portions of the region north of Interstate 70 Wednesday night. Although there are precipitation chances across the entire forecast area Wednesday night the best chance for precipitation will be across northern and eastern portions of the region. Precipitation will generally be in the form of snow, however along and south of the Ohio River some rain will also be possible. 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. As the feature moves to the east Wednesday night strong CAA will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens to the mid 20s. Wind gusts will be 30 to 35 mph at times with isolated gusts upwards of 40 mph possible. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning and wind gusts will begin to subside. Although surface high pressure will allow for dry conditions for most of the day on Thursday, with CAA there will be plenty of cloud cover across the region for Thursday. A weak system will move through Friday which will bring the chance for light snow showers to the region. There are some model variations with how much moisture is going to be with this system. Went closer to the drier ECMWF for this event. Precipitation will taper off Friday night and dry conditions will return for Saturday. With WAA temperatures are expected to climb on Saturday to the middle 30s to middle 40s. Another system will bring precipitation up into the region Sunday into Monday. A mix of rain and snow is expected with that system. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR ceilings below 2000 ft just west of the region will spread across the terminals early in the TAF period. West winds will strengthen and be gusty while veering slightly. Snow showers will spread across the region with a well defined band expected to stream off of Lake Michigan. The greatest impacts from this are expected from KDAY to KILN. Occasional IFR visibilities are likely in this band. The snow band will pivot northeast through the day and it is expected to impact the Columbus terminals late in the day. After the initial drop early, ceilings are expected to improve to above 2000 ft in the morning with further improvement to VFR later in the day. Clouds will start to scatter from the southwest late in the period. In addition, the west northwest winds will slowly diminish around 00Z with gusts eventually subsiding. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible Wednesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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