Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 171949 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 349 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRATOCUMULUS IS DIMINISHING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED ON BIAS TRENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRATUS DECK HAS SLOWLY BEEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE DIURNALLY LOOKING CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CU TO DISSIPATE AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WITH SOME LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE STILL AROUND...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KLUK. ANY FOG/BR SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING WITH JUST SOME SCT CU EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.