Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS DROP. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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